Week 6 Fantasy Football Mismatch Report: Jordan Love Blowup Game and Cowboys-Panthers Offensive Fireworks

Football at its core is a game that features teams attempting to exploit mismatches against each other. This is accomplished through smart X's and O's strategy as well as by simply having some beastly Jimmys and Joes to lean on in the personnel department. While none of us alleged fantasy experts should be confused as professional coaches, we do largely attempt to accomplish the same goal while prepping for any given week: Identify and exploit the biggest mismatches to our advantage.

A lot of this will be done through my weekly Mismatch Manifesto charts that combine commonly-used matchup metrics in an attempt to turn advantages and disadvantages into easier-to-consume one-way streets as opposed to always having to go, "Offense ranks x, defense ranks y." To put the following data simply: Blue is good for the offense in question, and red is bad. Cool? Cool.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

Week 6 Fantasy Football Mismatch Report

Explosions in the sky: Look out for Jordan Love and the Packers

The below chart denotes every offense's combined explosive run and pass play rates. Example: The Bengals run game doesn't look too hot this week, while Green Bay's passing attack looks rather awesome.

The Bengals boast the league's eighth-worst defense in explosive pass play rate allowed ahead of their matchup with the league's most-explosive passing game, meaning Jordan Love and company should have every opportunity to continue putting up near league-best efficiency numbers through the air.

Seriously: Love has played at a borderline MVP level through four weeks of action despite the team's plethora of injuries to both the offensive line and WR rooms.

Jordan Love among 32 QBs with 100+ dropbacks this season:

• EPA per dropback: +0.35 (No. 3)
• PFF pass grade: 82.5 (No. 4)
• Completion percentage over expected: +9.5% (No. 4)
• Passer rating: 113 (No. 4)
• Yards per attempt: 8.3 (No. 4)

It's always a bit tricky to figure out who exactly will be the top dog inside Green Bay's ever-crowded passing game that is expected to welcome back WR Christian Watson (knee) sooner rather than later—don't be surprised if it's Tucker Kraft who goes off this week against the NFL's single-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing TEs.

More b-e-a-utiful matchups: The Commanders, Falcons and Chargers are also set up quite well in their quest to create big plays in the passing game. That said: It'd be a lot cooler if Jayden Daniels gets his right-hand man Terry McLaurin (quad) back at some point soon. Expect Deebo Samuel to continue putting up WR1-worthy fantasy numbers in the meantime, but Monday night would be a pretty opportune time for McLaurin to return against the Bears' 28th-ranked scoring defense.

It's 2025 guys get it together: The Jets and Bengals otherwise stand out as the top-two offenses least expected to produce some explosive chunk gains through the air. However, I'm intrigued by the prospect of Jets TE Mason Taylor staying hot against Pat Surtain and company. We've seen No. 2 options, albeit WRs, like DeVonta Smith (8-114-0) and Keenan Allen (7-65-1) enjoy some heightened success against this unit while their offense's No. 1 WR wilts against one of the best corners in the game. Credit to Denver for working as one of just eight defenses allowing under double-digit PPR points per game to the position, but guys like Tyler Warren (4-79-0), Oronde Gadsden (5-46-0) and Dallas Goedert (3-19-1) were still more than fine.

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The Mount Rushmore of best RB run-game matchups

The following chart denotes every offense's combined *RB* rush yards before contact from Weeks 1-5.

The top-four RBs feature:

Rams RB Kyren Williams: On pace to rack up 333 touches despite the yearly hoopla surrounding another RB eating into his ever-massive workload. Credit to Kyren for improving upon last year's inefficient ways as both a rusher (4.1 yards per carry vs. 4.5) and receiver (5.4 yards per reception vs. 7.4); now if only he could, you know, not continue to function as one of the league's least reliable ball carriers when it comes to ball security. Either way: Wheels up against the league's second-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position—Williams is my RB7 overall ahead of this smash spot, the highest of any Fantasy Life ranker.

Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery: The artists known as Sonic and Knuckles are sitting pretty as the RB6 and RB18 in PPR points per game this season. Obviously everyone is firing up Gibbs as a weekly RB1 even if there's a fire, but there should also be some optimism around D-Mont still offering solid weekly upside after his enhanced role in Week 5. Perhaps the jump in snaps was simply due to game script, or Montgomery's emotional return home to Cincinnati. Either way: Last week's usage was far closer to the typical 1A/1B setup that was a staple in this backfield for most of 2023 and 2024.

Cowboys RB Javonte Williams: The former Bronco has reinvented himself in Dallas, averaging a career-best 5.7 yards per carry through five weeks while joining Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor as the league's only three RBs to have already scored triple-digit PPR points. Cemented as THE running back, y'all, inside the league's fourth-ranked scoring offense, Williams offers weekly blowup potential and should be trusted as an RB1 inside fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes–especially ahead of this week's matchup against the Panthers' bottom-10 defense in RB rush yards allowed before contact per carry.

Commanders RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Bill turned 16 touches into 150 yards and a pair of scores during the Commanders' Week 5 win over the Chargers, continuing to demonstrate all sorts of burst and big-play ability.

Unfortunately, it's tough to skyrocket Bill TOO high up the ranks because despite the positive momentum, the Commanders continue to insist on keeping Chris Rodriguez and Jeremy McNichols plenty involved as well.

That said: I'm firing up Croskey-Merritt ahead of inefficient volume-hogs/losers like D'Andre Swift and Chase Brown thanks to this week's pristine matchup against the Bears' league-worst defense in RB rush yards allowed before contact per carry. Bill is the consensus RB19 in the Fantasy Life ranks.

More RBs with plus matchups on the ground: Feature Michael Carter, James Cook and Travis Etienne. Kudos to ETN for operating as fantasy's RB14 in PPR points per game this season thanks in large part to averaging a career-high 5.8 yards per carry. His average of +1.17 rush yards over expected per carry is the seventh-highest mark at the position. Fantasy PSA: Quit trying to make fetch/Bhayshul Tuten happen (outside of his obvious handcuff upside, of course).

Tough sledding ahead: Things aren't looking too great for the Steelers, Browns and Bengals this week in the whole "open up big run lanes" department. Maybe the presence of Joe Flacco helps Chase Brown finally get going, but man, it's been a rough start. Yes, the Bengals rank 28th in RB rush yards before contact per carry and haven't exactly set their third-year RB up for consistent success. Also yes, Brown has a whopping 83 touches without a gain of 15-plus yards this season and the next-closest RB (Dylan Sampson) has … 31.

Could Bo Nix have all day to throw this week?

It sure looks like it based on combined Weeks 1-5 pressure rates between this week's offensive line and pass-rush matchups.

Nix has had an uneven start to his sophomore campaign to say the least, but he did generally ball out against the Bengals in Week 4, and the 25-year-old signal-caller deserves some credit for making some big throws down the stretch of the Broncos' spirited comeback win over the Eagles last week.

Still, it's actually Troy Franklin who gets me more excited in this matchup against Gang Green in England due to the WR/CB matchups at hand.

Consider: Jets CB Sauce Gardner rarely left his spot as the defense's left cornerback during the early portions of his career, but he's made more of a habit of traveling with the opponent's No. 1 WR this season. Accordingly, we've seen some pretty great No. 2 WR performances: Calvin Austin (4-70-1), Emeka Egbuka (6-85-0) and Ryan Flournoy (6-114-0) have each put up some big-time numbers mostly against the Jets' complementary corners.

Up next is a matchup that should feature plenty of Gardner on Courtland Sutton. Sean Payton has always been a bit wonky with his WR rotations, but Franklin's full-time usage has stabalized—I like the second-year WR's chances of putting up a boom spot in this matchup despite a few quiet weeks in a row.

QBs who could be doing their best David Bowie impressions (Get it? Under pressure?): Include Justin Fields, Joe Flacco, Jared Goff, and whoever winds up under center for the Ravens. Obviously the Bengals offensive line doesn't figure to do Flacco any favors—that said:

• Starting G Lucas Patrick (calf) returned to practice and has a shot to suit up Sunday.
• The Browns haven't exactly performed much better than the Bengals in terms of pressure rate (41% vs. 42%) and average time to pressure (2.43 seconds vs. 2.5).
• Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are anyone's idea of an upgrade over Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman.

Expecting Flacco to boom against Micah Parsons and the Packers with under a week to learn an entire new offense doesn't feel smart; just realize this Cincy schedule finally chills out a bit afterward with winnable matchups against the Steelers, Jets and Bears before their Week 10 bye.

Guess who could have ALL day to throw this week: Well, the numbers say Dak Prescott, Drake Maye and Trevor Lawrence could join Nix as the week's top QBs who should have clean pockets on more dropbacks than not. Hopefully the Jaguars can continue to supply T-Law with plenty of time to throw and accordingly help continue to get his No. 1 WR going. Consider: Brian Thomas Jr. posted brutal numbers in catch rate (28%) and yards per target (4.6) in Weeks 1-3 last season, but those have rapidly improved to 69% and 9.9, respectively, during the last two weeks. Wheels up for BTJ (and perhaps Travis Hunter) if the Seahawks wind up being without their top two corners Devon Witherspoon (knee) and Riq Woolen (concussion).

Are the Seahawks willing to let Sam Darnold cook?

I hope so! Darnold has the week's single-best matchup in terms of combined pass yards per dropback.

Darnold is playing the position better than just about anyone at the moment. Nobody is averaging more raw yards per attempt (9.3), as the ex-Jets/Panthers/49ers/Vikings signal-caller is routinely proving capable of throwing dots all over the field.

Seriously: Darnold is even outperforming what we saw during his Pro Bowl campaign in Minnesota last season, and it's not even like he's surrounded by absurd high-end talent with the obvious exception of Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

There should also be plenty of aerial success from the: Rams, Colts and Packers. It's hard to not be enticed by Matthew Stafford and company in particular against the Ravens' bad/injured defense. This passing game continues to be almost fully condensed around Puka Nacua and Davante Adams–Fantasy Life Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland and myself discussed Adams' buy-high potential on the Tuesday edition of The Fantasy Life Show. The ceiling is the roof in this spot against the league's second-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing WRs this season.

Local birds beware: On the bad side of things, the Jets, Bengals and Dolphins profile as the bottom-four worst passing attacks. To be fair to Tua Tagovailoa: Things honestly have been good in this Dolphins offense when he's capable of playing on time, but goodness do they go south quickly once the 27-year-old signal-caller is forced to hold the ball and play off-script.

Tua EPA per dropback by time to throw among 32 qualified QBs

• When throwing in under 2.5 seconds: +0.28 (8th)
• When throwing in over 3 seconds: -0.32 (25th)

Get your popcorn ready for Cowboys-Panthers!

Does this matchup have overly large playoff or hierarchy implications? Nope, but it does feature the Cowboys, who simultaneously lead the NFL in total offensive yards … and rank dead last in total yards allowed on defense.

The following chart denotes every offense's matchup in combined EPA per play based on their Weeks 1-5 performance.

Underdog watch: The Lions (+2.5) are this week's only squad with an on-paper advantage in combined EPA per play, yet are underdogs in the betting markets.

Blowout alert: The Packers, Broncos, Rams and Colts rather easily boast the largest expected offensive advantages in combined EPA per play.

Shootout city: Other than the Cowboys-Panthers matchup, Lions-Chiefs and Rams-Ravens boast the highest game-wide numbers.

This could be ugly: Titans-Raiders and Browns-Steelers profile as the two matchups that could feature the most total offensive despair.

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