Week 7 Fantasy Football Receiver Score Buys & Fades: Malik Nabers Is A WR1

Jameson Williams: Buy at a WR3 price

I'm buying Jameson Williams at his current WR3 price. He's playing nearly every passing snap in an offense that throws a lot, which is just the simple version of the analysis. The model thinks he can give us WR2 production ROS.

Williams has run 93% of Detroit's routes this season and 97% over his last two games. Detroit is also throwing on 63% of its neutral-situation plays. The model likes his route mix, too, with play-action on 33% of his routes and digs or crossers making up about a quarter of his route tree.

Receiver Score has Williams at 33.8 expected targets compared to 28 actual targets, with 68.0 expected receiving points compared to 57.6 actual points. That's about one additional target per game. His last two games were above expectation, so most of the scoring gap came earlier in the season.

Williams' 14.6% TPRR is the concern. The model expects 17.6% from his routes, and his 22.7% first-read share still leaves plenty for St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs. I don't need him to become Detroit's target leader to like this price. I'm starting him as a WR3, with the 17.1-yard aDOT giving us some big weeks and some frustrating ones.

I'd offer Denzel Boston for Williams straight up. Boston is already running 96% of Cleveland's routes, so there's very little playing time left for him to gain. Williams gets more valuable routes and more of them per game: 0.35 expected FP/RR versus Boston's 0.30, adding up to 13.6 expected receiving points per game versus 10.5. Give me Williams ROS.

Carnell Tate is closer. He earns targets on 24% of his routes compared to Williams' 15%, but Tennessee runs only 53 plays per game to Detroit's 66. Tate's routes have been worth 9.4 expected receiving points per game. I'd offer Tate for Williams in redraft, too. Tate's target earning gives the other manager a good reason to prefer him. I want Williams' role in Detroit over hoping for the Titans to turn their offense around.

Dalton Kincaid: Buy through the bye

Dalton Kincaid had 8 targets Sunday, all on first reads, for a 36.4% share. He also had an 18.2% win rate on 22 routes.

Kincaid ran 82% of Buffalo's routes in Week 5. His 63% route share Sunday needs some context: he left in the second half with a rib injury, went to the locker room for X-rays and returned in the fourth quarter. If anyone is worried about his route share, I would buy based on that alone.

Those last two games produced 12.5 receiving points on a 16.6 expectation. Sunday's routes alone were worth 11.5 expected points, and he had a touchdown called back for holding. The boxscore could have looked quite a bit better.

I'm holding through the bye. The 8 targets and 4 red zone targets Sunday give me more reason to be optimistic than the recent fantasy scores do. DJ Moore missed that game, so I want to see how much of that attention Kincaid keeps when Moore returns. I'd consider buying if he's being valued as a TE2 or even a low-end TE1. I still have him as a mid-tier TE1.

Xavier Worthy: Start while Rice is out, hold through the return

Kansas City used motion on 24% of Xavier Worthy's routes and play-action on 34% Sunday. His aDOT was only 4.7 yards, and all 7 of his charted targets came on first reads, a 33.3% share. I like seeing the Chiefs give him more of these short throws.

Worthy also ran 91% of the routes, continuing the full-time role covered in the latest Utilization Report. If Rashee Rice misses another game with the hamstring injury, I'd start Worthy as a WR3 against Seattle even though it is a tougher matchup.

Receiver Score expected 6.9 targets in Week 6, up from 5.9 per game across his first four appearances. His 14.3 receiving points came on a 12.3 expectation.

I'm holding Worthy when Rice returns, but I'd start picking my spots instead of using him every week. Andy Reid talked about how Worthy had his number called more often because others were out, so I’m not sure if we can count on big production again, but I can say that the model liked how he was used. 

I’d still buy Worthy cheaply. I like how Kansas City used him, even if Rice coming back means fewer targets.

Tre Tucker: Hold as a Flex, Sell for a WR3

Tre Tucker scored 26.7 PPR points on an 11.0-point expectation Sunday. He also played well, with a strong separation score and a 35.5% win rate on 31 routes, including wins on 5 of his 9 routes against man coverage. I like seeing that, but his season-long role still looks like a boom/bust flex.

Tucker ran 83% of the routes (close to his season-long numbers), with 7 targets on a 6.3 expectation. He is averaging 13.2 receiving points per game on a 9.6 expectation this season, and the model has him as a WR4. His 14.8-yard aDOT gives us the upside, but Sunday's route share barely changed. I'm not treating this as the start of a bigger role.

I'd offer Tucker for Jakobi Meyers straight up. Tucker has outscored him this season, but Meyers' routes have been worth 6.1 expected targets per game compared to Tucker's 5.4. Meyers is getting only 4.7 actual targets per game, so I prefer his chances to improve. Jacksonville's Week 7 bye makes Tucker more useful to a manager who needs a starter now. If I can cover that week, give me Meyers ROS.

Fantasy Football Players to Add or Stash

My WR priorities from this group are Omar Cooper, Antonio Williams and then Travis Hunter. At TE, I'd take Tyler Higbee if I need a Week 7 starter and Chig Okonkwo if I can wait until Week 8. Terrance Ferguson is my favorite use of an empty IR spot. Brandin Cooks is a fill-in if the injuries leave him an opening.

Omar Cooper: Add in 12-team leagues

Omar Cooper ran 85% of the Jets' routes in his first game back since Week 1, including 79% in the first half and 90% in the second. The 103 yards and a TD will get him picked up, but I like that the Jets immediately gave him this much playing time.

He ran 68% of his routes from the slot, with motion on 18% and play-action on 21%. All 7 of his targets came on first reads, giving him a 33.3% share. Dwain also noted in the Utilization Report that Cooper ran 75% of the routes in two-TE sets. That's the part I want to see continue when Adonai Mitchell returns: Cooper staying on the field when the Jets use only two receivers.

Receiver Score had Cooper at 5.4 expected targets and 9.6 expected receiving points, well below his 22.3 actual points. The Jets average only 58 offensive plays per game, and Mitchell missed this one with a finger injury. I have Cooper as a WR4 for now, with WR3 upside if he keeps this role when Mitchell returns.

Cooper is rostered in only 3% on ESPN. I'd bid 8-12% FAAB in a home 12-team league and 15-20% in a deeper or more competitive league.

Rams pass catchers: Higbee first, Ferguson for later

Sean McVay says Davante Adams will miss 6-to-10 weeks, and Higbee is my first add if I need a tight end. He has run 73% of the Rams' routes over the last three games, with 28 targets on a 29.4 expectation this season.

The Rams used three tight ends on 32% of their offensive plays Sunday, leaving only one receiver on the field in those sets. That matters with Puka healthy. Konata Mumpfield ran half the routes and spent most of them in the slot, so I don't expect him to simply inherit Adams' playing time.

Mumpfield was more involved when Puka was out, with 63 routes and 11 targets on 99 dropbacks alongside Adams. The Adams-off, Puka-on sample looks very different: zero routes for Mumpfield on 20 dropbacks, with Higbee and Colby Parkinson both involved. It's a small sample from earlier personnel combinations, but I don't think we should assume Mumpfield gets the same role he had without Puka.

Colby Parkinson has a 92 per-route grade in Receiver Score and drew 6 targets Sunday, with play-action on 42% of his routes. His 53% route share is the problem. Higbee is playing enough to be my streamer now; Parkinson is the deeper add if those three-TE sets continue and he starts running more routes.

Terrance Ferguson can return from IR as soon as Week 8. I'd use an open IR spot on him now, especially with Adams expected to miss this much time. We don't have a confirmed return date yet, and Ferguson coming back could also cut into Higbee and Parkinson's routes.

Higbee is 22% rostered on ESPN, Ferguson 12% and Mumpfield below 1%. I'd spend 3-5% FAAB on Higbee, more if I really need a Week 7 starter. Ferguson is a $1 IR stash. Mumpfield and Parkinson are 0-2% adds for deeper leagues; I'd prioritize Mumpfield if I need WR depth and Parkinson in TE-premium.

In deeper leagues, I am OK taking a shot on Mumpfield, but Receiver Score hasn’t liked him a ton. It does, however, like all of the TEs—it’s just a matter of route share splits for each of them and right now Higbee is the one to own for that.

Chig Okonkwo and Antonio Williams: Add ahead of Week 8

Terry McLaurin is out for the season with a torn patellar tendon. Chig Okonkwo is the player I'd prioritize here, and Antonio Williams now has a longer-term opening to earn more targets. The Commanders are on bye, so you'll need room to hold either until Week 8.

Chig ran 84% of Washington's routes Monday and drew 7 targets on a 7.2 expectation. All 7 came on first reads, a 24.1% share. I'd add him now with a plan to use him as a low-end TE1 ROS.

Chig ran 53% of his routes from the slot, with motion on 21% and play-action on 24%. Chig didn't grade well in separation, but his 13.9 PPR points were close to the model's 12.1 expectation.

Williams ran 73% of the routes and 81% in the second half, so he's worth adding in deeper leagues, too. His first-read share was only 10.3%, compared to 24.1% for Chig and 20.7% for Diggs. He’s a WR4 for me right now. I’d stash him until more targets start going his way.

Chig is 4% rostered on ESPN and Williams 5%. I'd spend 1-3% FAAB on either.

Travis Hunter: Stash in deep leagues and dynasty

Hunter scored 15.9 PPR points on 7 routes Sunday, which were worth only 2.8 expected points. He also played all 62 defensive snaps, so we're obviously going to need more offensive playing time before starting him.

He drew 4 targets, all on first reads, and he had 2 wins on those 7 routes. Jacksonville put him in the slot on 4 routes and used motion on 4.

Brian Thomas didn't play in the second half, so there could be more routes available after the bye. I'd like to see Jacksonville give Hunter some of them. Josh Cameron, who we discussed last week, is another player who could benefit if Thomas continues losing playing time.

Hunter is 29% rostered on ESPN, and I'd spend 1-3% FAAB in a deep league to hold him through the Week 7 bye. I'm holding in dynasty, too. In a shallow redraft league, I'd move on if he comes out of the bye still running only a handful of routes. Playing every defensive snap makes it harder to find him a full offensive role.

Marvin Harrison Jr.: Pass for now

Marvin Harrison Jr. drew 4 first-read targets on 9 routes in his Houston debut. The Texans wanted to get him involved, but he ran only 25% of the routes and didn't see his playing time build as the game went on.

C.J. Stroud has talked about getting Harrison more touches and plays, but DeMeco Ryans also said Tank Dell will return against the Giants. Harrison is still learning the offense, and Houston has another receiver coming back.

Harrison had zero wins on his 9 routes, all against zone. After reviewing the tape and the model’s outputs … I don’t think he will be fantasy relevant. I’m fine dropping him in a typical 12-team redraft league if I need the roster spot.

49ers receivers: Brandin Cooks is the emergency add

Mike Evans aggravated his Achilles tendinitis Monday and hasn't been ruled out for Week 7. Deebo Samuel is expected to miss multiple weeks with a hamstring injury. Evans' status will determine whether I'd use a waiver claim on anyone here.

Brandin Cooks is my preferred add if Evans misses Atlanta. He went from zero routes before Evans left to running 16 of the 18 dropbacks afterward. Jordan Watkins also ran 16 routes during that stretch, but he was already playing before the injury.

On those 18 dropbacks, Christian McCaffrey drew 8 charted targets and George Kittle drew 5. Cooks had 1 and Watkins had none. Watkins won on 4 of his 29 routes for the game but had zero first-read targets.

Christian Kirk's practice window is also open to further complicate things. I'd take Cooks over Watkins or Jacob Cowing for a one-week fill-in if Evans and Kirk remain out, at no more than 1% FAAB. Cooks, Watkins and Cowing are available in almost every ESPN league. If Kirk returns, I'd wait to see the rotation; Kittle and McCaffrey are still my picks to get most of the extra targets.

Receiver Score likes this offense, which makes Kirk worth a cheap flier in deeper leagues.