Will Matthew Golden Get A Post-Bye Rookie Bump?

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:

With Week 6 on tap, we have our first wave of teams coming off bye.

This is notable because not only are these teams rested (ATL, GB, CHI, PIT), but it also means some of our favorite rookie selections could be in line for more opportunities.

The post-bye rookie bump is a real trend backed by data, so it’s something worth considering.

Of course, not all rookies will experience this bump (Kaleb Johnson might need an entire redshirt year before he gets significant touches), but there are three rookies who I think are likely to see more targets this week:

Packers WR Matthew Golden - Golden’s Utilization Score has increased each week of the season and he has one of the highest separation grades among all WRs. The Packers also have a nearly 30-point team total and a home matchup vs. a bad Bengals secondary. The big plays are coming.
Bears TE Colston Loveland & WR Luther Burden. Chicago insiders are also anticipating a post-bye bump for these two and Loveland sounds healthy after multiple weeks of rest. The Commanders give up the third-biggest fantasy boost to opposing WRs and the seventh-biggest to opposing TEs. Don’t let us down, Ben.

A couple TNF notes …

Darius Slayton (hamstring) won’t play tonight for the Giants. Wan’Dale Robinson is a nice start (as is Theo Johnson).
Tyrone Tracy Jr. is “good to go” after a two-week absence. I wouldn’t trust him vs. the Eagles, but this also dings Cam Skattebo’s ceiling as well.
In case you somehow forgot, it is a revenge game for Saquon Barkley tonight …and the Giants.

See where we have TNF guys ranked before setting your lineup

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Editors’ Picks

Week 6 is here. It’s time to get right (or stay right). Start by making sure you catch up on some of the latest and greatest content that you may have missed on FantasyLife.com.

Rest-of-Season Rankings

Emeka Egbuka continues to go scorched-Earth, skyrocketing into the top 30 players in our rest-of-season rankings. Gene Clemons breaks down all of the biggest risers and fallers.

Buy Low On Cooper Kupp?

Is the former Triple Crown winner maybe … possibly … not dust? Chris Allen dives into why Cooper Kupp makes for a prime buy-low target while providing buy-high targets ahead of Week 6 as well.

10 Things To Know

Joe Flacco to the Queen City—what does it mean for Week 6? Ian Hartitz dives into Flacco in his new threads and nine other things to know for Week 6.

RANKINGS UPGRADE: Stefon Diggs climbs to WR18

Diggs lit up the fantasy boxscore in Weeks 4 and 5 with 16.1 and 24.6 fantasy points. The veteran WR earned a 40%-plus target share in both of those contests, y'all.

While his limited playing time is a bit concerning, it's clear that Drake Maye has gone into missile-lock mode when Diggs is on the field. The second-year QB has dialed the No. 8 on 50% of third- and fourth-down attempts over the last two games.

The Patriots' receiving corps is more like a receiving corpse. The only target competition for Diggs is tight end Hunter Henry, who isn't a target hog.

New England carries a healthy 25.4-team total against the Saints in Freedman's betting model.

Projection Model (using my PPR projections):

Xfinity Best (ceiling): 28.1
Median: 13.8
Floor: 6.6

Diggs is a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside against New Orleans.

» For the rest of Dwain’s risers and fallers for Week 6, read below. ⬇️

DWAIN’S FULL LIST OF WEEK 6 RISERS AND FALLERS

Predicting Week 6: Panthers Dominate Cowboys

Let's start with this: The Panthers this year are 0-3 on the road but 2-0 at home.

On the road, they have a -50 point differential—for just three games! That's terrible.

But at home, they have +33 differential—for only two games. That's incredible.

And I don't think these splits are random or fluky. Last year, the Panthers had an average differential of -16.0 on the road (minus the neutral London game), but at home they had a mark of -8.3.

Every NFL team is better at home … but the Panthers are much better at home.

Phrased differently: The Panthers are absolutely atrocious away from home—and I think their road-based iniquities color our perception of them at Bank of America Stadium, where over the past year they've had the league's No. 3 home-field advantage (+10.5, per NFElo).

So the Panthers are in a good spot in terms of location, and they also have an edge in travel: This is their second game in a row at home and third in four weeks. Right now, they are very much not weary from the road.

Now let's compare that to the Cowboys, who are playing their second straight game out east and third on the road out of the past four weeks. And their one home game in this stretch: A 40-40 overtime tie.

The well-traveled Cowboys have every reason to be worn out.

Now let's look at the matchup.

The Cowboys offense has been powered by the running game this year, ranking No. 1 in rush SR (51.6%, per RBs Don't Matter). But the Panthers are No. 4 in defensive rush SR (33.6%). The Cowboys offense doesn't have a big rushing edge.

As for the passing game: The Cowboys offense is No. 15 in dropback SR (47.8%) … the Panthers defense, No. 10 (44.6%).

So the Cowboys offense has a slight edge on the ground, but that might be outweighed by the edge the Panthers defense has in the air.

What about when the Panthers have the ball?

Their offense is No. 9 in rush SR (44.3%); the Cowboys defense … No. 24 (45.2%). Oh no. Clear edge for the Panthers offense on the ground.

What about the passing game? The Panthers offense is No. 17 in dropback SR (47.4%); Cowboys defense, No. 28 (52.8%). Yikes. Clear edge for the Panthers offense in the air.

So the Panthers have a good home-field advantage, they have a notable travel edge, and they seem to match up fairly well against the Cowboys.

Why exactly are the Cowboys favored?

Although the Panthers are consensus three-point underdogs, I have them as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life NFL Game Model.

Bold Prediction: Panthers beat Cowboys by 14+ points.

MORE BOLD PREDICTIONS FOR WEEK 6

Around the Watercooler

The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds.

📺 Nine trades we’d love to see before the deadline. Alvin Kamara to go WHERE??

👀 Buy, Sell, Hold is here. Where does TreVeyon Henderson fall??

📝 Top 2026 draft prospects to watch this weekend. Elite QBs square off.

🤝 Looking for bye-week replacements for Weeks 6-8? We’ve got you covered.

🔒️ The new Mr. Clutch? The stats don’t lie.

🚑️ A truly brutal year for injuries. This nugget sums it up.

💸 Jonathan Gannon fined $100K. So he lost the game and 100 grand? Yeesh.

⚖️ An update on the Brian Flores case. Interesting development.