WR Rankings Downgrades For Week 8 Fantasy Football: Jameson Williams & More

Let's get into the Week 8 WR rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 8 favorites and fades.

WR Rankings For Week 8 (Top 36)

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Rank	Player
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2	Puka Nacua
3	Ja'Marr Chase
4	CeeDee Lamb
5	Zay Flowers
6	Amon-Ra St. Brown
7	Christian Watson
8	Justin Jefferson
9	Drake London
10	Parker Washington
11	Tee Higgins
12	Matthew Golden
13	George Pickens
14	Tetairoa McMillan
15	Jalen Coker
16	DJ Moore
17	A.J. Brown
18	Garrett Wilson
19	Luther Burden
20	Michael Wilson
21	DK Metcalf
22	Stefon Diggs
23	Jameson Williams
24	Omar Cooper
25	Tre Tucker
26	Ladd McConkey
27	KC Concepcion
28	Germie Bernard
29	Carnell Tate
30	Emeka Egbuka
31	Denzel Boston
32	Rome Odunze
33	Keenan Allen
34	Antonio Williams
35	Jaylen Waddle
36	Jordan Addison

Week 8 Matchup Downgrades In My WR Rankings: Jameson Williams vs. Vikings & Luther Burden at Seahawks

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for WRs.

Vikings: No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.226)
Seahawks: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-5.2)

Here be dragons.

Jameson Williams (Lions) vs. Vikings: After doing little in Weeks 1-3 (5.9 fantasy points per game, 10-127-0 receiving, 17 targets, 55 Utilization Score), Williams has exploded since Week 4 (18.2 fantasy points per game, 13-240-4 receiving, 21 targets, 85 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Now, with No. 1 WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ankle) uncertain to play, Williams could have elite usage, as he did last week (40% air yard share, 67% end-zone target share) … but Williams is a boom/bust player, and this feels like a bust week. The Lions are -3.5 favorites at home, where over the past five years they've had the league's No. 2 HFA (+7.69, per NFElo), and Week 5 was their last time on the road, so their setup is good, but it's not perfect: The Vikings have cut their home edge to the core because they play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium, and in his two games last year against the Vikings, Williams had only marginal success (9.7 fantasy points per game, 6-103-1 receiving, 9 targets).

Luther Burden (Bears) at Seahawks: Last week was literally the first one all season in which I didn't feature Burden as a fantasy fade … and he went off with his best performance of the year (21.7 fantasy points, 4-130-1 receiving, 4 targets with 1-7-0 rushing). Amazing timing, and here's the thing: It's not as if his usage was actually anything special (69% route rate, 14% target share, 18% air yard share, 0% end-zone target share, 60 Utilization Score). So I'm not about to jump on the Burden bandwagon, especially since this is a poor travel spot for the Bears, who are on their third road game in four weeks. On top of that, the Seahawks are on their fourth game in five weeks at home, where they have a boosted HFA because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass). The Bears have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and QB Caleb Williams is usually at his best outside division (18-7-1 ATS, 37.3% ROI, per Action Network), so the setup isn't terrible, but everything in totality, especially the matchup, makes me want to fade Burden once again. I don't think I'd feel comfortable starting Burden in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Scoring Downgrades In My WR Rankings For Week 8: Tre Tucker at Jets & Drake London at Buccaneers

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the WRs."

This week the Raiders are No. 16 in implied team total (22.25), and the Falcons are No. 17 (21.75).

Downgrades warranted.

Tre Tucker (Raiders) at Jets: Tucker has been a destroyer of worlds over the past two weeks (21.5 fantasy points per game, 10-200-3 receiving, 19 targets), but it's not as if his underlying usage in these games was anything remarkable (23% target share, 29% air yard share, 25% end-zone target share), which gets to the nature of Tucker as a player … he's a true boom/bust merchant. This year he has three games with more than 18.5 fantasy points and four games with fewer than 6.5. For Tucker, the default assumption should almost always be a bust week, and the setup for the Raiders isn't good: They're traveling across the country for an early 1 pm ET kickoff, and the Jets have a boosted HFA against them because they're outside division and on turf (vs. grass) and outdoors (vs. indoors).

Drake London (Falcons) at Buccaneers: In his five games with QB Michael Penix this year, London has gotten the production (15.5 fantasy points per game, 32-536-1 receiving, 47 targets) and the usage (98% route rate, 33% target share, 47% air yard share, 86 Utilization Score). This week, though, I'm practicing pessimism. The Bucs could be without FS Antoine Winfield (ribs), but they're No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-4.9), and this is their fifth home game in seven weeks. Divisional road dogs tend to be sharp (752-641-37 ATS, 4.8% ROI), but HC Kevin Stefanski has been terrible on the road throughout his career (21-33 ATS, -25.0% ROI).

Week 8 Situational Downgrades In My WR Rankings: Tetairoa McMillan at Packers & Xavier Worthy at Broncos

In general, I want to avoid WRs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) at Packers: No. 2 WR Jalen Coker (shoulder) practiced fully on Tuesday, so McMillan is unlikely to get an injury-related production bump on Thursday Night Football, and he could've used that boost, because he has done little since the Week 5 bye (8.8 fantasy points per game, 10-126-0 receiving, 15 targets, 66 Utilization Score). Plus, the matchup and setup suck: The Packers are No. 4 in defensive pass DVOA (-11.8%), and they're playing their third game in four weeks at home, where they have a boosted HFA because the Panthers are outside division and on grass (vs. turf). In his one game last year against the Packers, he underwhelmed (6.6 fantasy points, 4-46-0 receiving, 6 targets). On top of that, LG Damien Lewis (knee) is uncertain, and RT Taylor Moton (leg, IR) is out.

Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) at Broncos: A case could be made that Worthy should actually be a fantasy favorite this week, given that No. 1 WR Rashee Rice (hamstring) is uncertain, as are No. 1 CB Patrick Surtain (ankle) and SS Talanoa Hufanga (ankle). But Worthy has done little of note since Rice exited in Week 4 (7.5 fantasy points per game, 14-154-0 receiving, 20 targets, 62 Utilization Score), and this is the second straight road game for the Chiefs, who could be without RT Jaylon Moore (concussion) on top of LT Josh Simmons (back, IR). Although the Broncos have had the league's No. 3 HFA over the past five years (+6.87), the Chiefs have drastically cut down that edge because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. But the matchup is tough: The Broncos are No. 4 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.051), and in his two games last year against them, Worthy was abysmal (2.0 fantasy points per game, 3-25-0 receiving, 8 targets with 1-1-0 rushing).

Notes

Week 8 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Byes: This week, the 49ers, Saints, Giants, and Texans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.