Guillotine Leagues™️ Cheat Sheet For Week 8: Could Jahmyr Gibbs Get You Chopped?

We're on to Week 8! We've made it this far! Good job avoiding the blade. Good luck doing it again if you have to sit Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Nico Collins, Chris Olave and Malik Nabers, to name just a few playerss on a bye this week.

So to help you to keep surviving the chop in Guillotine Leagues™️, Matthew Freedman and Pete Overzet got together for a round table discussion with several player recommendations for this week. Also, make sure to consult our fantasy football rankings, fantasy football projections and DvP Tool when setting your lineup. Happy chopping!

Week 8 Guillotine Leagues Cheat Sheet

Who do you like as a strong "RB floor play" in Week 8?

Freedman: Rachaad White (Commanders) vs. Eagles

With No. 1 RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt (groin, IR) out in Week 6, White stepped up to serve as the clear lead back for the Commanders (13.7 fantasy points, 57 yards, 1 TD on 7 carries, 5 targets, 79 Utilization Score), and now they're coming off the bye as -4.5 home favorites. Granted, the Commanders have a drastically reduced HFA against the Eagles because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium, and HC Dan Quinn tends to disappoint as a favorite (29-41 ATS, -19.2% ROI), but the Eagles are losing a day off Monday Night Football, and they're No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (-0.008).

Via my Week 8 RB Favorites

Pete: Jordan Mason (Vikings) vs. Lions. I'm trying to dig a little deeper for you guys and I think Mason is on the menu this week. My hunch is that Aaron Jones misses this week after suffering a knee injury in Week 7 vs. the Colts. Mason returned to the lineup after an IR stint and handled 63% of the carries and 9% of the targets. The Vikings do not trust any other RB, which means Mason has a higher floor than normal here in a potential Divisional shootout.

Who do you like as a strong "WR floor play" in Week 8?

Freedman: Michael Wilson (Cardinals) at Cowboys: Neither the production (9.1 fantasy points per game, 37-375-1 receiving, 66 targets) nor the efficiency (5.7 yards per target) have been up to par for Wilson this season, but his usage remains intact (93% route rate, 35% air yard share, 32% end-zone target share). The Cowboys have a boosted HFA because the Cardinals are outside division and on turf (vs. grass), but at least they're indoors, and they have a one-day edge over the Cowboys coming off Monday Night Football. What's more: The Cowboys are No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.274) and could be without LB Dee Winters (calf) in addition to SS Jalen Thompson (hamstring, IR) and No. 3 S P.J. Locke (foot, IR).

Via my Week 8 WR Favorites

Pete: DK Metcalf (Steelers) vs. Browns. Metcalf might be the most boring "sexy" WR in football or the sexiest "boring" WR depending on your perspective, but the floor is always sturdy. He has a 24% target share on the year, runs all the routes, and the team is still without Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson.

Which "stud" are you considering benching in Week 8?

Freedman: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) at Broncos: It feels dirty to say this, but this is my third straight week to feature Mahomes as a fantasy fade. And yet … in his two games since the Week 5 bye, he has massively disappointed (9.2 fantasy points per game, 437 yards passing, 0 TDs, 2 INTs with 7-30-0 rushing). I'm not saying it's all his fault: The injuries to WRs Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle, IR), LT Josh Simmons (back, IR), and RT Jaylon Moore (concussion) have definitely taken their toll. It's not all bad for the Chiefs: Although the Broncos have had the league's No. 3 HFA over the past five years (+6.87), the Chiefs have drastically cut down that edge because they play in division on a similar grass surface in a similar outdoor stadium. But this is the second straight road game for the Chiefs, and the Broncos, even without No. 1 CB Patrick Surtain (ankle), have been No. 3 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.149) over the past three weeks. For the season, they're No. 4 (-0.051). In his one game against the Broncos last year, Mahomes was middling (14.3 fantasy points, 276 yards passing, 1 TD, 1 INT with 1-3-0 rushing).

Via my Week 8 QB Fades

Pete: Garrett Wilson (Jets) vs. Raiders The ceiling is still there for Wilson—he's too good to have that taken from him—but the floor is now much shakier with Omar Cooper's emergency and Geno Smith's tendency to spread the ball around. It's a decent matchup, but I wouldn't fault someone for breaking ties away from him now.

Who's the one guy who might not have a solid floor but who makes you say, "Screw it, I'm starting him anyway"?

Freedman: Savion Williams (Packers) vs. Panthers

How DARE you accuse me of being a TCU homer! I wouldn't have even known that Williams went to TCU if you hadn't have mentioned it. Anyway, Williams missed Weeks 1-5 to injury, but over the past two games he has functioned as the clear No. 3 WR for the Packers (64% route rate, 37 Utilization Score). That's not sexy, but he has at least done a little something with his opportunities (6.4 fantasy points per game, 7-79-0 receiving, 7 targets), he has been efficient (11.3 yards per target), and he has gotten some work on the ground (4-13-0 rushing). With No. 2 WR Matthew Golden (shoulder, foot) looking unlikely to play, Williams has an opportunity to earn extra work this week, and that might be meaningful against the Panthers, who could be without CB Akayleb Evans (triceps) on top of CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps, IR) and Mike Jackson (groin, IR). The Packers are playing their third game in four weeks at home, where they have a boosted edge against the Panthers because they're outside division and on grass (vs. turf). This might sound wild, but I can almost imagine a universe in which I consider starting Williams in Guillotine Leagues^TM this week.

Via my Week 8 WR Favorites

Pete: A.J. Brown (Patriots) vs. Dolphins. It hasn't looked pretty, but the role is phenomenal over the past two weeks (84% of the routes, 27% target share) and the matchup is nice vs. the Dolphins. Everyone involved is incentivized to get AJB going in this spot.

Which player do you think will have the highest "chop rate" in Week 8?

Freedman: Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) vs. Vikings: When a guy is always locked in at No. 1 but this week you think about ranking him No. 2 … that's a downgrade. The Lions are -3.5 favorites at home, where over the past five years they've had the league's No. 2 HFA (+7.69, per NFElo), and Week 5 was their last time on the road, so their setup is good, but it's not perfect: The Vikings have cut their home edge to the core because they play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar indoor stadium. Gibbs has absolutely smashed this season (25.8 fantasy points per game, 890 yards, 9 TDs on 134 carries, 40 targets, 99 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report), but last year in two games against the Vikings he did almost nothing (4.9 fantasy points per game, 92 yards, 0 TDs on 26 carries, 6 targets) … and his performance was somehow even worse than his production (2.5 yards per carry, 4.3 yards per target).

Via my Week 8 RB Fades

Pete: Jonathan Taylor (Colts) at Jags. The Colts have basically zero incentive to over-work Taylor with the trade deadline looming and they should continue to get a long look at Seth McGowan. JT managers have no choice but to start him, but there's a lot more variance here than normal for a top-5 back.