Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy For Week 4: Time To Bench Tee Higgins

Another week is in the books for the NFL season. While it’s still quite early in standard Guillotine Leagues™, we’ve already seen a lot of big-name players send their teams to the chopping block. Derrick Henry was a massive disappointment in Week 2, and we had a rash of quarterback injuries.

Unfortunately, things didn’t get any better in Week 3. We saw another group of players go down with injuries, with none proving more bloody than CeeDee Lamb. Lamb owners were chopped in roughly 21% of Guillotine Leagues, which was nearly 6% higher than any other player. Jayden Daniels, Malik Nabers and Saquon Barkley were also among the top six most-chopped players, so it was a star-studded week of disappointments.

While those guys get most of the headlines, one bad performance doesn’t condemn you to the scythe. Especially early in the year, you can make up for some disappointing showings by making smart decisions with the rest of your lineup.

That’s the goal of this piece. Each week, I’ll look at a few players on the FLEX bubble that are risky options and a few potential alternatives. The alternatives might be a bit lower in our Week 4 Rankings, but the floor they provide gives them an edge in this format. Guillotine Leagues founder and guru Paul Charchian will also weigh in with some of his thoughts.

Let’s dive in.

Strategy for Week 4 in Guillotine Leagues™

Sit: Isiah Pacheco vs. Ravens

There is going to be temptation to start Pacheco against the Ravens. He was drafted as a starter in basically all leagues, and the matchup vs. the Ravens is about as good as it gets. They’re 31st in rush defense EPA through the first three weeks, and the Lions ran the ball over them on Monday night.

However, the Chiefs’ rushing attack is certainly not as good as the Lions. Pacheco is playing behind a terrible Chiefs’ offensive line, so it’s hard to imagine Pacheco having a ton of daylight. He’s averaged just 1.9 yards before contact per attempt, which ranks 51st at the position.

While Pacheco isn’t getting much help, he’s not doing much on his own, either. He’s 45th at the position in yards after contact per attempt, and he’s been one of the least efficient runners in the league. He’s averaged -0.63 yards over expectation per attempt, which is the eighth-lowest mark in football.

Pacheco isn’t getting bell cow usage for the Chiefs, and Kareem Hunt siphoned away the team’s goal-line carry last week. Ultimately, it’s hard to see where the upside is coming from. He doesn’t catch a ton of passes, hasn’t scored a TD, and hasn’t been an efficient runner. Add in the fact that the Ravens could put a ton of points on the board and turn this game into a track meet, and Pacheco has significant downside. There’s way too much risk here.

Charch says: This one’s a layup! Pacheco isn’t even worth a roster spot, let alone a start. I only had him one Guillotine League, and I dropped him last week to ensure I’m not tempted to do anything crazy, like start him. Plays like this ensure Andy Reid limits his playing time. At some point, Pacheco might return to his pre-injury form, but there’s no chance I’m starting him until I see it first.

Start: Woody Marks vs. Titans

The Titans are the only team that has been worse against the run this season than the Ravens. They’re dead last in EPA per rush attempt defensively, and they’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to the position. They’ve allowed at least 137 rushing yards in all three contests, so it’s as good as it gets from a matchup standpoint.

While the Texans also have some offensive line issues, they’ve at least been somewhat respectable when run blocking. They’re 21st in run block win rate, compared to 30th for the Chiefs. Add in the fact that the Texans are sizable favorites instead of underdogs, and it’s a bit easier to get excited about their prospects.

Marks is emerging as the guy to own in the Texans’ backfield. He played on a season-high 49% of the team’s offensive snaps last week, and he handled 40% of their rushing attempts. More importantly, he’s taken over the majority of the work in passing situations, giving him some upside in PPR formats.

Ultimately, we’re simply looking for someone who can get to double-digit fantasy points, and Marks checks that box this week.

Charch says: On Tuesday’s CHOP Podcast, I made a detailed case for adding Woody Marks to your roster. He could become an Austin Ekeler-style Guillotine contributor, chipping in 10ish PPR points every week. As Matt correctly pointed out, it’s a deeply positive matchup against a bad Tennessee defense.

Sit: Tee Higgins at Broncos

There was some optimism that the Bengals' offense would continue to produce despite losing Joe Burrow for upwards of three months. Unfortunately, that optimism dried up quickly in Week 3. Jake Browning was absolutely dreadful under center, throwing for just 140 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.

Higgins was basically invisible in that contest. He managed just an 8% target share, and he finished with just 2.5 PPR points. It resulted in the third-highest chop rate in Guillotine Leagues (15%).

There will probably be better days ahead for Higgins at some point. He’s still a high-end talent at the position, and Browning has proven to be a capable backup. Last week’s matchup came against a really tough Vikings’ defense, so Higgins will have better matchups.

Unfortunately, this isn’t one of them. The Broncos haven’t been quite as dominant defensively so far this season, but they still possess one of the top cornerback groups in football. They’re also coming off their best showing of the year last week vs. the Chargers, racking up five sacks while limiting Justin Herbert to 5.85 adjusted yards per attempt.

If they can do that on the road vs. Herbert, they have the potential to completely erase the Bengals in Denver. Higgins still checks in around WR34 in our rankings, but sitting him in this matchup is completely justifiable.

Charch says: With 15 teams remaining, it’s pretty tough to bench Tee Higgins, someone you drafted in (roughly) the third round. As Matt points out, it’s a tough matchup against arguably the best duo of cornerbacks in the league, Riley Moss and Pat Surtain. But the real problem for Higgins starts at the line of scrimmage, where the Broncos bring extraordinary pressure. Denver has already created 87 quarterback pressures (per PFF)! And the Bengals rank dead last in Pass Block Win Rate.

Start: Tre Tucker vs. Bears

It’s very easy to write off Tucker’s Week 3 performance as a fluke. He finished with more than 40 PPR points, making him the highest-scoring receiver of the entire week. He could play for 10 more years and might not have another game with 100+ yards and three touchdowns.

Still, writing him off completely feels like a mistake. Tucker has been a real part of the Raiders’ passing attack through three weeks. He owns a 93% route participation, 20% target share, and 28% air yards share, and he’s seen nearly half of the team’s end zone targets. He probably won’t post those types of numbers all season, but he’s been involved enough to enter the flex conversation.

Tucker also gets a solid matchup this week vs. the Bears, who have not been the same team defensively this season. Stud cornerback Jaylon Johnson is currently on IR, and they’re merely 23rd in pass defense EPA through three weeks.

Ultimately, Tucker has cracked double-digit fantasy points in two of three games, and he had a 20% target share in the lone exception. I’m a believer.

Charch says: Where was this last week, Matt?! Teasing aside, Matt’s right that it’s a great matchup for Tucker. Jaylon Johnson’s backup, Nahshon Wright, has already allowed two touchdowns in his coverage.

Players Mentioned in this Article

TeeHiggins
WRCIN
PPG
11.34