Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy For Week 9: Can You Trust Chimere Dike?

Last week was a brutal one for Guillotine Leagues™. Nearly a fifth of the league was on bye, and most leagues are still deep enough that there weren’t a ton of adequate replacements available. Add in the fact that a few guys who have carried teams this season were unavailable (Jahmyr Gibbs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Trey McBride, just to name a few), and most teams were fighting an uphill battle.

Unfortunately, there were also a handful of massive disappointments. Bijan Robinson couldn’t take advantage of a matchup against a historically bad run defense. Jake Ferguson didn’t haul in a single pass vs. the Broncos. Baker Mayfield turned his his second straight disastrous performance.

All three were among the top five most-chopped players in Week 8. However, starting one of them didn’t guarantee a date with the executioner. If you made smart decisions with the rest of your lineups, you could’ve overcome a bad start even during “Byepocolypse.”

That’s the focus of this piece. Each week, I’ll highlight a few players who stand out as risky starts in Guillotine Leagues™. These guys still might be ranked as flex-worthy starters in our Week 9 rankings, but their downside outweighs the potential upside. I’ll also highlight a few potential alternatives that could be used as pivots. Finally, Guillotine Leagues™ founder and guru Paul Charchian will weigh in with a few thoughts of his own.

Let’s dive in!

Week 9 Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy

Sit: Rico Dowdle at Packers

I highlighted Dowdle in this piece last week vs. the Bills, and he definitely qualified as a disappointment. He still averaged a solid 6.8 yards per carry vs. Buffalo, but he had just eight attempts in a game that the Panthers trailed throughout. He also didn’t earn a single target, so he finished with just 5.4 PPR points. That was good for a finish of just RB39 for the week.

All the same concerns that existed for Dowdle last week are present once again in Week 9. His lack of production as a receiver makes him game script-dependent, and the Panthers don’t figure to be competitive against good teams. The Panthers are nearly two-touchdown road underdogs vs. the Packers, so Dowdle could be looking at another week with single-digit opportunities.

Additionally, I wouldn’t expect him to average nearly seven yards per carry for the second straight week. The Bills' defense has struggled against the run this season, ranking 28th in EPA per play. That allowed Dowdle to make the most of his eight carries. The Packers are 10th in rush defense EPA, and they’ve allowed the third-fewest PPR points per game to the position.

Ultimately, it’s a terrifying spot. Dowdle still checks in at RB22 in our consensus rankings, but his downside could absolutely kill you this week.

Charch says: The Packers are a daunting matchup, but I’m not as pessimistic about Dowdle’s opportunity. Earlier this week, Head Coach Dave Canales indicated that he’s ending Carolina’s timeshare, with Dowdle having earned the starter’s role. In Dowdle’s three games with 17+ carries, he’s averaging a whopping 6.7 yards per carry. The Packers are a top-five run defense, creating some stomach-turning Guillotine downside, but it’s hard to bench a starting runner who’s had Dowdle’s level of success.

Start: Bam Knight at Cowboys

Knight is a bit lower than Dowdle in our rankings, but he brings a lot more to the table. For starters, he simply has less competition for touches. He’s split the workload pretty evenly with Michael Carter over the past two weeks, but Carter was released by the Cardinals earlier this week. He was eventually signed back to the practice squad, but it doesn’t seem like he’s going to be a huge factor in their plans moving forward. Knight and Emari DeMercado are the only healthy backs currently on the active roster, with Trey Benson slated to miss at least one more week. That leaves Knight as the team’s clear early-down grinder.

The matchup vs. Dallas is also a good one. The Cowboys have been dreadful defensively this season, ranking dead last in EPA per play. They’re 30th specifically against the run, and they’ve allowed the third-most PPR points per game to opposing RBs.

The Cardinals are listed as just 2.5-point underdogs in this contest, which means Knight should get plenty of opportunities to take advantage of this elite matchup. He likely won’t do much as a receiver, but he has the potential for a touchdown with a solid chunk of yards.

Charch Says: I’d start the undead corpse of Bea Arthur against the Cowboys. Last week against Dallas, two different Broncos runners finished in the top 16 in fantasy points generated. The Dallas defense is bad at everything, barrelling toward one of the worst in history. If Dallas stays on their current trajectory, they’ll allow the second-most yards and points in any season in league history.

Sit: Quentin Johnston at Titans

Johnston was one of the biggest surprises of the early season. He was a bit of an afterthought for fantasy purposes, with both Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen expected to handle most of the receiving opportunities for the Chargers. Instead, Johnston emerged as Justin Herbert’s go-to guy. He led the team with a 25% target share through the first four weeks, and he responded with an average of 19.9 PPR points per game. That was the fourth-best mark at the position.

However, his utilization has plummeted since then. Johnston has still seen plenty of opportunities, posting an 85% route participation since Week 5. That said, his target share has absolutely plummeted. He was at 13% in Week 5, 10% in Week 7, and failed to earn even one target last week vs. the Vikings. He’s scored just 17.9 total PPR points in those three outings, making him a massive bust.

McConkey and Allen seem pretty firmly entrenched atop him in the pecking order at receiver, while Oronde Gadsden has emerged as a bona fide stud at tight end. There are simply a lot of mouths to feed in Los Angeles, making Johnston extremely volatile on a week-to-week basis.

There will be better games ahead at some point for Johnston, but there’s no guarantee that happens this week vs. the Titans. I’d rather take my chances with someone who has more predictable volume, even if they don’t have as much big-play upside.

Charch says: I needed this last week, Matt! I was cautiously optimistic that Johnston would fare okay against the Vikings—a team that had struggled against physical receivers. Instead, Justin Herbert never even looked at Johnston’s side of the field. As Matt mentioned, it looks like Gadsden is going to eat into Johnston’s consistency, and there’s nothing Guillotine managers like less than inconsistent players. The matchup feels tempting, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Johnston do okay against Tennessee, but you can find a better flex option.

Start: Chimere Dike vs. Chargers

On the other side of that matchup, Dike is the exact type of player who raises your team’s floor in Guillotine Leagues™. The fourth-round rookie has seen his role steadily grow throughout the season, and he took over as a full-time starter in Week 8. He was on the field for 91% of the team’s passing plays, and he garnered a 22% target share. Both of those were his top marks for the season, and he responded with more than 16 PPR points for the second straight week.

The big thing to monitor here is the status of Calvin Ridley. He suffered an injury in Week 6, and he’s yet to return to practice. As long as he’s out of the lineup once again in Week 9, the coast is clear to fire up Dike with confidence. He may not be viable in Guillotine Leagues™ much longer, but he provides enough target upside to warrant a starting spot vs. the Chargers.

Charch Says: I like Dike enough to add Dike to my dynasty/empire roster. But, Guillotine Leagues™ are a whole different matter. Matt’s correct that Ridley could dagger Dike as early as this week. But also, a good Chargers secondary would be problematic. Only one opposing wideout has topped 100 yards against Los Angeles. The Chargers are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts.

Players Mentioned in this Article

ChimereDike
WRTEN
PPG
4.18
QuentinJohnston
WRLAC
PPG
13.81
Proj
9.70
ZonovanKnight
RBARI
PPG
5.73
Proj
3.18
RicoDowdle
RBCAR
PPG
13.80
Proj
14.46