Is it Time to Bench Jameson Williams? And Start Michael Carter? | The Guillotine Leagues Mailbag

Here are some of the interesting questions I found in the mailbag this week... and how they can relate to help you stay alive in your leagues.

Is it time to bench Jameson Williams?  I’ve already benched Calvin Ridley.

It sounds like you have started Williams every week and have survived getting chopped. That’s a big accomplishment. Williams isn’t ideal for Guillotine Leagues™. He’s the type of player who can ruin the week and puts a team at a high probability of being chopped. The goal in Guillotine Leagues is to have a high floor each week. It’s not about winning the week or accumulating the most total points like season-long leagues. Williams has 6.3, 18.6, 6.4, 6 and 1.9 points in PPR.

There was a lot of talk in the off-season about Williams being used in the offense more, especially with downfield passes. He signed a three-year deal for $83 million. In two of the last three games, the Lions wide receiver had great matchups against the Bengals and Ravens and flopped. Williams has four targets or fewer in three of the last four games.

Williams can pop off for a big play at any time, but the floor is low as shown in several games. Even playing the matchups hasn’t worked. Benching Williams makes sense until he is more involved in the offense. Ridley is the better start. Benching him last week didn’t work out, but considering he was dealing with injuries and had to go through pregame workouts before determining if he could play made him more risky. Many benched Ridley last week and he had his best game of the season with five catches for 131 yards on 10 targets.

I think I had the steal of the week getting Rome Odunze for $22 out of a $1,000 budget. I tried for Bijan Robinson, Drake London, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba, but didn’t want to spend that much. Do you agree? How do they let me get away with this?
 

I do agree that Odunze at $22 is a steal. He should have gone for more. While everyone would prefer Robinson, London and Smith-Njigba, the cost comes into play. Most successful teams to go far in Guillotine Leagues tend to make smart additions early in the season at cheaper prices to have money for late in the season, when fewer teams are remaining. Odunze has a 26.7 target share and has become the top target in the Bears’ offense. Odunze has at least seven targets in every game and scored five TDs. He has at least 15.2 PPR points in each game. Another reason why Odunze should have gone for more money is he just had his bye week. Sometimes, a bid might be lowered if a player has a bye in the upcoming weeks.

You should always put in a lot of bids and even if the player isn’t needed, put in a bid in case this example happens. When someone sees a $22 bid on the screen for Odunze, they might think there is no way I can get him at that price and delete it. The mistake a lot of players make is putting in one to three bids per drop. I tend to have 10 to 15 players and the bottom few might be $1 bids.

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I lost CeeDee Lamb and then Tyreek Hill. I need two of these four and none give me the warm and fuzzy: Michael Carter, Troy Franklin, Jerry Jeudy and Tory Horton.

Based on what we saw last week, Carter is one of them. Carter led the running backs in snaps at 58% and had the most touches. While he wasn’t very efficient, he had 18 carries for 51 yards with a TD and caught all five targets for 22 yards. Bam Knight had five touches for 22 yards and Emari Demercado had three carries for 81 yards, including dropping the ball before the goal line on a 71-yard run resulting in a touchback. If Demercado gets penalized for this, it will solidify the role of Carter more while Trey Benson misses at least three more games. To end last season, Carter played big roles in the last two games of the season with 15 and 21 touches.

For the second, go with Franklin. He has a 19% target share and is the second target in the offense behind Courtland Sutton. This shapes up to be a good game for Franklin since Sutton should see a lot of Sauce Gardner. In the last two games against the Jets, the secondary receivers had the best games. Last week, George Pickens had two catches for 57 yards with a TD, but Ryan Flournoy had six catches for 114 yards on nine targets. Franklin has at least 8.4 PPR points in three of five games.

I have been hesitant to start Jacory Croskey-Merritt because of the split. I had him on the bench last week and Jordan Mason is on a bye. Is it time to start BILL?

Washington has slowly shown more trust in Croskey-Merritt. He played a season-high 47% of the snaps last week and started the game after not playing until the third drive in past weeks. Bill rushed for 111 yards on 14 carries, scored twice and caught two passes for 39 yards. He had 70% of the team’s rushing attempts and Chris Rodriguez Jr. only had five touches. Croskey-Merritt has been the best back for Washington and his role is growing. He has a great matchup this week against the Bears, who allow the third most fantasy points per game to running backs. Start him.