Week 10 Guillotine Leagues™️ Bidding Advice: Careful Spending on Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley

Welcome to Week 10, Guillotine Leaguers!

I’m here every Tuesday offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding.

Here's a little secret about this every-Tuesday article: I write from the bottom up. On Mondays I fill out the bottom section, with the "regular" waiver wire players. On Tuesday morning, when I've got the Top 10 data, I create the bidding advice for the big names you see in the middle of this story. And lastly, I write these introductions, talking about something salient in the world of Guillotine Leagues™️.

I didn't say the secret was a salacious, or even interesting.

Today, I want to combine the top and the bottom of this article to talk about "regular guys" who you'll be tempted to pick up for a buck or two.

Part of the beauty of Guillotine Leagues™️ is that the strategies are always shifting and reinventing themselves. Your Guillotine League is incredibly different today than it was in, say, Week 3. It's a whole different game, effectively. But has your mindset shifted with the change?

Week 10 Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice

Here's an example. The bottom of your roster should be very different now than it was in September. At the start of the season, we were divvying up 250 players across 18 teams, and those bottom-tier dregs were disposable. Dropping bad draft picks, like Tahj Brooks or MarShawn Lloyd meant nothing.

But now, the bottom of your roster has actual, useful guys. Hopefully that includes some of the handcuffs I discussed last week.

At the bottom of this article, you'll see some really tempting, likely-to-be cheap players. "What's the harm in picking up $1 players," you might reasonably ask.

The answer to that question is already on your roster. We're getting a point where you need to consider more than the $1 FAAB acquisition cost, but also the lost opportunity with whomever you're dropping—probably someone half decent. As you're looking through my recommendations, be sure to adequately weight the cost of the drop.

Churning your roster by constantly chasing last week's boxscores might not terribly expensive in FAAB, but it can be expensive in the players you're losing.

Be sure to listen to the CHOP Podcast, for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

Self-Evaluation: How Strong is Your Roster?

Over the course of this story, you'll see a lot specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for weeks, or even to the end of the year.

Broad Bidding Strategies

How much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

End-game players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year, even through December. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. At this stage of the season, max your bidding on end-game players at around $200. No more, unless you’re desperate.
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $20 twice a week will drain your funds in short order.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $0-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players From Week 9

Note, I've removed Tucker Kraft from the list, since his season, sadly, is over. That opens the door to a fascinating discussion around the 10th-most chopped player.

10. IND TE Tyler Warren (13.3% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 79/100
Upcoming schedule: ATL, Bye, @KC
Last week's median price: $53
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $80
Charch says: Last week's median price was only $53?! Whaaa? Why? Warren is an end-game tight end, finishing as TE11 or better in seven of nine games. He's been TE6 or better four times. If you've been languishing at the tight end position, Warren is an instant solve. This is a rare case when I'd bid more than last week's median price.

9. GB QB Jordan Love (13.7% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming schedule: PHI; @NYG; MIN
Last week's median price: $3
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $3
Charch says: Has any veteran quarterback gone from indisputably his best-ever game to indisputably his worst-ever game in consecutive weeks? In one game, Love threw two of the ugliest passes you'll ever see. I'm surprised Panthers' CB Mike Jackson isn't still running back Love's across-the-field blunder. At this stage of the Guillotine season, non-mobile, mid-tier fantasy quarterbacks are a dime a dozen.

8. LAC RB Kimani Vidal (13.8% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 64/100 (since Hampton's injury)
Upcoming schedule: PIT; @JAC; BYE
Last week's median price: $22
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $20
Charch says: In all probability, you'll get two more starts out of Kimani Vidal before Omarion Hampton returns. But Vidal's usefulness may not immediately dry up when Hampton returns. You'll remember, Najee Harris touched the ball 10 times in Week 2, before suffering his Achilles injury in Week 3. If Vidal runs well against the Steelers and Jaguars, he could be part of a Chargers rotation when Hampton returns.

7. NO RB Alvin Kamara (15% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 71/100
Upcoming schedule: @CAR; BYE; ATL
Last week's median price: $26
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $0
Charch says: It's four straight declining yardage games for Kamara, down to last week's pitiful 19-scrimmage-yard game. Over the past month, Kamara is averaging 2.9 yards per carry. He hasn't scored since the opener. He hasn't topped 70 rushing yards since the opener. Devin Neal has to start getting work, right?

6. IND RB Jonathan Taylor (16% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 89/100
Upcoming schedule: ATL; BYE; @KC
Last week's median price: $305
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $275
Charch says: Taylor is coming off a rare dud game, and this consistutes a rare chance to get the league's highest-scoring running back. This is a great opportunity to get an elite end-game player. My only hesitation is his schedule: He's got a tricky matchup with Atlanta this week and a bye the week after.

5. PHI RB Saquon Barkley (16.3% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 83/100
Upcoming schedule: @GB; DET; @DAL
Last week's median price: $150
End-game player: YES?
Charch's recommended bid amount: $125
Charch says: This is Saquon's sixth appearance on this list, which is staggering for any player, let alone the reigning Offensive Player of the Year. This time, he's a top-10 chopee without even suiting up, coming off his bye week. Because of his frequency on this list, Barkley's issues have been discussed several times: His carries are down, his receptions are down, he's not generating long touchdowns and his quarterback is eating Barkley's goal-line scores. He faces two excellent run defenses the next two weeks, further complicating your bidding decision.

4. PIT WR DK Metcalf (17% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 64/100
Upcoming schedule: @LAC; CIN; @CHI
Last week's median price: $60
End game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $10
Charch says: The problem with Metcalf is volume. Aaron Rodgers is so busy pelting his three tight ends with targets, he often forgets about Metcalf. The guy is averaging only 3.6 receptions per game. That's not OK for a No. 1 wideout—especially considering how Rodgers treated Davante Adams last year. With only 3.6 receptions per game, it makes Metcalf dangerously touchdown-dependent.

3. DET RB Jahmyr Gibbs (18.6% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 80/100
Upcoming schedule: @WAS; @PHI; NYG
Last week's median price: $326
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $275
Charch says: I'm stunned to see Gibbs on this list, especially considering his prior success against the Vikings. Minnesota played to contain Gibbs, and it worked. But last week's game was an outlier, and Gibbs will immediately return to usual massive boxscores against the sagging Commanders defense this week. He's a sure-fire end-game player and you'll need to pay a lot for him.

2. CHI WR Rome Odunze (19.4% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 69/100 (but only 53/100 in the last month)
Upcoming schedule: NYG; @MIN; PIT
Last week's median price: $68
End-game player: NO
Charch's recommended bid amount: $20
Charch says: For the first month of the season, the entire Bears passing offense revolved around Odunze. Since then, Odunze's involvement in the offense has dried up. His September utilization score was 86, compared to his October score of 53. Still, if you believe Ben Johnson is building something special in Chicago, Odunze is the player you most want to have. I can't quite put him in the "end-game" category, so I'm limiting my bidding.

1. KC QB Patrick Mahomes (21% chop rate)

Utilization Score: N/A
Upcoming schedule: BYE; @DEN; IND
Last week's median price: $51
End-game player: YES
Charch's recommended bid amount: $10
Charch says: Mahomes is a fringe end-game player. In the final weeks of the season, you'll need to score 150+ points to survive, and Mahomes doesn't have the rushing upside for explosive games. Still, he's thrown the third-most passing touchdowns and he's found his way into the end zone four times as a rusher. I don't like this week's bye, followed by a brutal trip to Denver, to face an elite Denver pass defense which may have Pat Surtain back by then.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider for guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

WAS QB Marcus Mariota—Charch recommends $1
Since his rookie year, a lot of people claimed "Jayden Daniels is too frail to survive in the NFL." Mostly, I dismissed those nabobs of negativity. Well, sadly, it looks like the nabobs were right, even if Spiro Agnew wasn't. Enter Mariota, possibly for the rest of the season. In Mariota's three full games, he's finished as QB6, QB17 and QB19. He's averaging five designed runs per game, so Dan Quinn's got a willingness to let him run, which is pivotal to Mariota's floor and upside. I wouldn't normally use a roster spot on Mariota, but his schedule is insanely favorable, including the next two games against Detroit and Miami. If you'll use him in the next two weeks, he's worth a buck.

NYG RB Devin Singletary—Charch recommends $10
I didn't expect Singletary to lead the lead post-Skattebo Giants in rushes and snaps, but credit him for making the most of the opportunity. To my eye, Motor was hummin', running with fresh legs and power last week. He was already the presumed goal-line back—Tyrone Tracy has zero touches from inside the 5-yard line this year, and only two touches from the red zone. And now it looks like he'll have an expanded role, at least in the near term. He'll probably continue a fairly even split with Tracy, but he's the preferred option because of his touchdown potential.

SF RB Brian Robinson—Charch recommends $5
We're heading into the time of year when handcuffs are more important than 10-point producers. Robinson looked fantastic on Sunday, breaking tackles and ripping off big plays. In San Francisco, Robinson backs up the most notoriously injured player in the league, Christian McCaffrey. CMC feels like a timebomb, considering his massive usage. The 29-year old has more carries and more receptions than any runner. Robinson becomes an end-game player if anything happens to CMC.

JAC WR Parker Washington—Charch recommends $0.
Tuesday's addition of Jakobi Meyers complicates matters a bit, especially since they both run half their snaps from the slot. But Washington remains a viable pickup candidate. Last Sunday, with Travis Hunter on injured reserve and BTJ dealing with a low-high-ankle sprain—low-high???...whatever that means, Jags—we saw Washington leap to the top of the Jaguars usage metrics. He led all Jacksonville receivers in snaps, routes, targets, receptions and receiving yards. My hesitation on Washington is a brutal upcoming matchup with Houston's elite pass defense. And after that, a tricky matchup with the Chargers. But after that it's a run of three straight favorable matchups: Arizona, Tennessee and Indy.

IND WR Alec Pierce—Charch recommends $1
Having fully beaten out Adonai Mitchell and Ashton Dulin, Pierce's usage is surging. Over the past three weeks, he's the team leader in snaps and routes, and he's just two targets behind Michael Pittman. Pierce is a downfield menace, averaging a whopping 20.5 yards per target—second deepest in the league. You already know the Indy offense is cookin' and you may want a key Daniel Jones target. The reason I'm not bidding more for Pierce is his intimidating schedule for the next three weeks: Atlanta, Bye and then travel to Kansas City.

CHI TE Colston Loveland—Charch recommends $1
I hate being the wet blanket, but I need to highlight some of the reasons why Loveland's massive game last Sunday could be a one-off. It came against a Cincinnati defense that's on pace to be the worst tight end defense in modern history. The Bengals have allowed 12 touchdowns to the position already—that's more than any team all last year! They're on pace to allow 23 tight end scores, which would shatter the single-season tight end ineptitude record of 17 touchdowns allowed. Also making last week uniquely beneficial for Loveland, Cole Kmet got knocked out early and Luther Burden didn't clear the concussion protocol. Both of those guys eat up Loveland's slot routes, and when they return, will likely impact Loveland's snap count.

GB TE Luke Musgrave—Charch recommends $15
With Tucker Kraft's unfortunate season-ending knee injury, Musgrave walks into most of Kraft's routes. Musgrave isn't quite at Kraft's level of ability, but he's not that far off. He's athletic with soft hands. Not surprisingly, Musgrave set new season highs in catches, targets and yardage last week—all in the fourth quarter. There's a real chance Musgrave gives you 80% of Kraft's production, which would make him a Guillotine starter most weeks.

BAL TE Isaiah Likely—Charch recommends $0
We're slowly seeing the baton get passed from 30-year-old Mark Andrews to the 25-year-old Likely. Over the past two games, Likely has pulled (roughly) even with Andrews in snaps, routes, targets and receptions. Andrews remains an end zone magnet, but he's averaging just 3 catches per game. According to the Fantasy Life strength of schedule tool, the Ravens have the easiest remaining tight end schedule.

Players Mentioned in this Article

TahjBrooks
RBCIN
PPG
0.26
MarShawnLloydIR
RBGB
Proj
0.00
TuckerKraftO
TEGB
PPG
12.65
Proj
0.89
TylerWarren
TEIND
PPG
10.82
Proj
9.70