Week 6 Guillotine Leagues™ Bidding Advice: Bid up on James Cook and Brock Bowers?

This column is here every Tuesday, offering waiver wire guidance to help you strategize your bidding. Typically, Guillotine Leagues™ guru and founder Paul Charchian will be walking you through things, but this week, I’m appearing as a pinch-hitter (though some early sections will be the same to keep with Paul's process).

We’ve spent a large part of the early season talking about how much of a dumpster fire tight end has become. We entered the year with few sure things at the position, and it has somehow been even uglier than anticipated. Brock Bowers has dealt with injuries and ineffectiveness, while George Kittle has been out since Week 1. It’s left Trey McBride as the only guy you can feel 100% confident in on a weekly basis.

However, Week 5 provided a bit of respite at tight end. We had 17 different players crack double-digit PPR points, despite McBride not being one of them. All of a sudden, it feels like there are more options that at least provide some optimism and upside on a weekly basis.

Guillotine Leagues™ Waiver Wire Bidding Advice Before Week 6

A few TEs who weren’t really on the radar a few weeks ago have really stood out:

Darren Waller made his return to the lineup in Week 4, and while he was limited to just a 36% route participation, he made up for it by catching two touchdowns. He took a step forward in Week 5, and he responded with another 18.8 PPR points. With Tyreek Hill out for the rest of the season, the door is open for Waller to have a Jonnu Smith-like impact for the Dolphins down the stretch. He’s not going to score a touchdown every week, but he’s reached a point where he feels very startable.
Tyler Warren has gotten most of the headlines as far as rookie tight ends go, and rightfully so. However, Mason Taylor has sneakily become a big part of the Jets’ passing attack. He’s racked up a target share of at least 25% in back-to-back games, and he had an 83% route participation in Week 5. He responded with a season-best 17.7 PPR points, and he’s cracked double-digits in back-to-back weeks.
Theo Johnson has also scored in double digits in back-to-back weeks, courtesy of three receiving touchdowns. That makes his production feel a bit flukier, but the Giants have a clear need for playmakers in the pass game with Malik Nabers out of the picture. Johnson has displayed nice chemistry with Jaxson Dart in the rookie QB's first two starts, racking up a 21% target share.
Just one week after appearing on the most-chopped list, Sam LaPorta bounced back with his best game of the season. The Lions have an embarrassment of riches on the offensive side of the ball, so there are going to be weeks where some of their role players are invisible. That makes LaPorta risky in Guillotine Leagues, but it’s good to know that he still has 20+ fantasy point upside in his range of outcomes.
Dillon Gabriel made the first start of his career, and he propelled both David Njoku and Harold Fannin Jr. to double-digit PPR points. Njoku had a massive 32% target share in the rookie’s first start, and if he continues to get peppered with targets, he might live up to preseason expectations after all.

Add it all up, and the TE position feels a lot more robust than it did just one week ago. There are still some big decisions to be made at the position (more on that later), but there are at least enough stop-gap options to hopefully keep you off the chopping block.

Also, be sure to listen to the CHOP Podcast for greater detail and conversation about the week's waiver wire decision.

Self-Evaluation

Over the course of this feature, you'll see a lot of specific bidding advice. Those values need to be weighed against the strength of your roster and your likelihood of survival. You can’t bid correctly if you don’t establish your level of desperation—hopefully very little.

If you have a short-term roster problem due to bye weeks or injury, your goal should be to solve the problem with a cheap replacement player to cover your roster for a few weeks.

If your roster has a long-term problem, you’ll need to be more aggressive to land a good replacement player who can sustain you for months.

Broad Bidding Strategies

There’s no single way to win a Guillotine League. But I can safely say, the clearest path to a Guillotine League championship is to survive until mid-season and have a lot of FAAB left. In short, save your FAAB. Except for the truly desperate, your goal is to conserve cash.

So, how much should you spend? Here’s a broad rule of thumb:

Elite players: These are guys who’ll be on your roster for the rest of the year. This category of player would be first and second-round picks if drafting today. Max your bidding on elite players at $200. No more, unless you’re already truly desperate. Remember, you're going to need eight "end-game" level players. Even if you drafted a couple end-game players, you can't pay $400 for six more.
Middle-tier players: These guys are probable starters, but only for another month or so. $10-$20. Be careful here. Throwing down $40 twice a week will drain your funds in short order, and most of these guys won't turn into end-game players.
Lower-tier players: These are short-term helpers or depth guys for your bench. $0-$5.

The 10 Most Chopped Players in Week 5

10. NE RB TreVeyon Henderson (11.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 49/100 for the year, 46/100 in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: at NO, at TEN, CLE
End-game player: NO
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $20
LaMarca says: Even with Rhamondre Stevenson fumbling on a seemingly weekly basis, Henderson is struggling to find opportunities. However, the season-ending injury to Antonio Gibson could change things. Gibson has been a thorn in the side for both Stevenson and Henderson, but with him now out of the picture, this should be a true two-man split at RB in New England. Stevenson still figures to be the lead back, but Henderson has the upside to pass him at some point down the stretch.

9. CAR RB Chuba Hubbard (12.0% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 77/100, N/A in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: DAL, at NYJ, BUF
End-game player: NO
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $15
LaMarca says: Hubbard was out of the lineup in Week 5, and Rico Dowdle went absolutely nuclear in his absence. He turned 23 attempts into 206 yards and a touchdown, and he added three catches for 28 yards for good measure. Hubbard has been the Panthers’ clear lead back all season when healthy, but he could find himself in more of a timeshare when he does return. That return could come in Week 6, with head coach Dave Canales calling Hubbard “day-to-day” in a recent press conference.

8. ATL RB Bijan Robinson (12.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 93/100, N/A in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: BUF, at SF, MIA
End-game player: YES
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $200
LaMarca says: Robinson being the eighth-most chopped player this week shows why early-season byes are so dangerous in Guillotine Leagues. Even though you were able to replace him in your starting lineup, teams that relied on his early-season production were not able to do it without him. Now that his bye week is out of the way, the only thing that can stop Robinson from being an every-week starter is an injury. He’s a clear end-game player, and he’s worth targeting with a large bid. $200 might not get it done in most leagues, but unless you’re desperate for production, it’s still better to prioritize your budget than blow it all on one player. As Charchian always says, you need eight “End Game” players by the end of the year, and that’s tough to accomplish if you spend more than $200 on a single guy.

7. CHI WR Rome Odunze (12.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 86/100, N/A in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: at WSH, NO, at BAL
End-game player: YES!
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $175
LaMarca says: Another elite player who fell victim to an early bye. Odunze is currenlty fourth in PPR points per game, and he has the fifth-best UR Score at the position. He is undoubtedly an End Game receiver at this point; the only question is how much to bid on him? I’m going slightly less than I would on Robinson, but there’s no reason not to target him aggressively at this point.

6. LV WR Jakobi Meyers (12.1% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 66/100, 56/100 in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: TEN, at KC, BYE
End-game player: NO
LaMarca’s recommended bid amount: $30
LaMarca says: Meyers is coming off a poor showing in Week 5, and he’s failed to crack double-digit PPR points in three straight weeks. He’s getting more than enough targets in most contests, but Geno Smith has dragged down everyone in this offense with his horrendous play. Meyers still feels like a weekly starter at receiver at this point in the year, but it’s fair to wonder just how many more weeks of viability he’ll provide.

5. WAS TE Zach Ertz (12.4% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 62/100, 29/100 in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: CHI, at DAL, at KC
End-game player: NO
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $3
LaMarca says: Ertz failed to catch a single pass in Week 5, but he’s still someone whom you can look to in the right matchups. He has two good ones upcoming against the Bears and Cowboys, and he had 11.6 and 18.4 PPR points in his other two games with Jayden Daniels under center. With Terry McLaurin banged up, there should be opportunities for Ertz to get more involved in Week 6.

4. TB RB Bucky Irving (12.4% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 92/100, N/A in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: SF, at DET, at NO
End-game player: YES
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $75
LaMarca says: This is one of the toughest questions of the week. Irving has played like an End Game player this season, and he has the third-best UR Score at running back. However, the greatest ability in Guillotine Leagues is availability, and Irving is expected to miss at least one more week. I definitely want him on my roster, but we might have a chance to add him again after Week 6. $75 is admittedly more than Charch would likely bid on Irving, but I’d be happy to have him at this figure.

3. DET WR Jameson Williams (13.3% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 50/100, 21/100 in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: at KC, TB, BYE
End-game player: NO
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $10
LaMarca says: Williams is the classic “boom-or-bust” flex play, someone who is capable of going for 20+ or zero in any given week. Those players are major headaches in fantasy leagues, and they’re even worse in Guillotine Leagues. Having the Chiefs and a bye week on the schedule over the next three weeks is also far from ideal. Still, Williams is somewhere in the WR20-30 range overall, and those players still have plenty of value at this point in the year. Just be careful of loading up on too many guys with wide ranges of outcomes.

2. BUF RB James Cook (13.9% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 83/100, 60/100 in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: at ATL, BYE, at CAR
End-game player: MAYBE?
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $100
LaMarca says: It’s hard to look at what Cook did over the first four weeks and not consider him an End-Game player. Still, his utilization isn’t quite as good as what you’d expect for a stud running back. He has to share goal-line responsibilities with Josh Allen, while Ty Johnson siphons away work on passing downs. Add it all up, and someone will likely want Cook more than I do this week.

1. LV TE Brock Bowers (15.4% chop rate)

Utilization Score: 76/100, N/A in Week 5
Upcoming schedule: TEN, at KC, BYE
End-game player: HOPEFULLY
LaMarca's recommended bid amount: $25
LaMarca says: Oh, what to do with Brock Bowers. On paper, he’s a clear End-Game tight end, arguably the best player in the league at his position. Unfortunately, there is just too much uncertainty with him at the moment. He was shut down at practice at the end of last week and ultimately missed their last game, and there’s no guarantee he returns before the team’s Week 8 bye. Bowers will likely get back into the top TE in fantasy conversation when he is available, but he’s simply too risky to spend big on at the moment. I’d be happy to add him for around $25, but beyond that, it’s too rich for my blood. You might have more chances to pick him up over the next three weeks, where he’ll hopefully be closer to returning.

Waiver Advice For “Regular” Guys

These are the caliber of guys who are popping up on “traditional league” waiver wires, but you'll also want to consider them for Guillotine usage. They're generally cheap and could provide short-term help.

It's a rare week with a ton of running back prospects whom you can acquire. Hopefully you heeded last week's advice on Woody Marks, because he's likely gone at this point.

CLE QB Dillon Gabriel (2% owned)—LaMarca recommends $0
Expectations for Gabriel’s first start couldn’t have been much lower. He was playing overseas against a tough Vikings defense, but he didn’t look half bad! He looked like a clear upgrade over Joe Flacco, and he’s at least earned the right to pick up a few more starts for Cleveland. Gabriel still isn’t really on the fantasy radar, but you can at least feel a bit more comfortable starting some of the Browns’ skill-position players.

LAC RBs Hassan Haskins (1%) & Kimani Vidal (0%)—LaMarca recommends $5 each
The RB hits keep on coming for the Chargers. Najee Harris was already on IR, and now rookie Omarion Hampton will join him. Haskins and Vidal figure to split the work in their absence, with both players seeing 22% of the snaps after Hampton departed on Sunday. Haskins had a slight edge in opportunities, so he appears to be the preferred option for the time being. That said, both players deserve to be rostered.

ARI RB Michael Carter (67%)—LaMarca recommends $10
Carter had the lion’s share of the snaps and carries for the Cardinals in Week 5, and after Emari Demercado’s game-losing gaffe, his workload might only grow moving forward. He looks like the best short-term Band-Aid at the RB position.

NYJ RB Isaiah Davis (17%)—LaMarca recommends $0
With Braelon Allen out indefinitely with a knee injury, Davis becomes the next man up in the Jets’ backfield. He’s the clear backup to Breece Hall for the time being, but Hall hasn’t exactly been a beacon of health throughout his NFL career. The Jets also have the lowest Pass Rate Over Expectation in football, so if Davis does get a crack at the starting job, he could become very fantasy viable.

SF WRs Kendrick Bourne (29%) & DeMarcus Robinson (18%)—LaMarca recommends $10 and $1, respectively
The 49ers’ receiving corps was decimated in Week 5, with Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings joining Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle on the sidelines. It’s too early to know how things will play out in Week 6, but Bourne put together a monster performance vs. the Rams in their absence. He had a 25% target share, so he would be a deserving starter if the team is shorthanded once again. Robinson also had a healthy 90% route participation in Week 5, so there would be worse desperation starts if he’s looking at another expanded workload.

DAL WR Ryan Flournoy (0%)—LaMarca recommends $0
Flournoy stepped up for the Cowboys after KaVontae Turpin sat out last week vs. the Jets. Unfortunately, the Cowboys don’t get to play the Jets every week, and Turpin appears to be on the mend. I doubt Flournoy puts together another usable performance all season.

CAR WR Jalen Coker (58%)—LaMarca recommends $1
Coker is already relatively owned, but the Panthers officially opened his 21-day practice window. His return from the IR is imminent, but how much can we really expect from him in Carolina? Bryce Young hasn’t played well enough to make Tetairoa McMillan particularly useful, let alone a No. 2 receiver. Coker also still has to compete with Xavier Legette and Hunter Renfrow, so it’s hard to envision a scenario where he becomes fantasy viable.

SEA TE AJ Barner (14%)—LaMarca recommends $1
Yet another potential TE worth considering. Barner was the top scorer at the position last week, and he’s had double-digit fantasy points in three of his past four games. That stems primarily from catching four touchdowns in those contests, but Barner did get to a season-high seven targets in Week 5. With Sam Darnold playing at an elite level, it’s possible that Barner maintains some level of usability for the next few weeks.