Week 6 Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy: Keep Jaylen Warren On Your Bench
Matt LaMarca breaks down roster strategy and players to bench or start for Week 6 of the Guillotine Leagues™ season.
We were able to make it through Week 5 relatively unscathed from an injury standpoint. Omarion Hampton went down with an injury, officially joining Najee Harris on IR, but that was the only big blow to a major fantasy contributor.
As a result, we had a relatively quiet week from a chop standpoint. There was no huge landmine like Derrick Henry in Week 2 or CeeDee Lamb in Week 3, and no player was chopped in more than 15.4% of leagues.
However, Week 5 did see the start of bye weeks, and that clearly had an impact. Bijan Robinson and Rome Odunze have been among the best players in fantasy at their respective positions, and teams that were used to having their production struggled to survive without them. We also saw three players who were out with injuries (Brock Bowers, Chuba Hubbard, Rachaad White) among the week’s most-chopped players.
It goes to show that availability is truly the best ability in Guillotine Leagues™. If you don’t have a complete roster, it can be tough to survive when one of your best players is out of the equation.
Hopefully, this piece can help with that. Each week, we’ll look at a few players who are risky starts for one reason or another. We’ll also highlight a few potentially undervalued players who can be used in their stead.
Let’s dive into Week 6!
Guillotine Leagues™ Strategy For Week 6
Sit: Jaylen Warren vs. Browns
The Steelers were off last week, which should give Warren a chance to get back into the lineup. He missed the team’s Week 4 matchup vs. the Vikings in Dublin, but he appears on track to suit up in Week 6. He’s been able to practice to start the week, which bodes well for his availability vs. the Browns.
However, it remains to be seen what type of workload he’ll be returning to. Before suffering his injury, Warren operated as the Steelers’ clear No. 1 running back. He played on 60% of the team’s offensive snaps, and he handled 70% of their designed rushing attempts. Add in a healthy 15% target share, and Warren posted a solid 78 UR Score overall.
Warren saw his largest action in Week 3, playing on 78% of the snaps and garnering 81% of the carries. But with Warren out of the picture in Week 4, Kenneth Gainwell showed that he can be productive in this offense. He racked up 19 carries vs. the Vikings, and he responded with 99 yards and two touchdowns. He also caught all six of his targets for an additional 35 yards. Ultimately, this backfield could look much more like a committee in Week 6 than it did before Warren suffered his injury.
Neither Steelers’ RB looks particularly appealing in this matchup. The Browns have been stout against the run this season, ranking second in EPA per rush defensively while allowing the third-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs. Look at some of the performances they’ve already had this season against backs far better than Warren:
- Derrick Henry: 12 carries, 23 yards, zero touchdowns
- Josh Jacobs: 16 carries, 30 yards, zero touchdowns
- David Montgomery: nine carries, 12 yards, zero touchdowns
Jacobs was able to salvage his fantasy stock with some work in the passing game, but the Browns have thoroughly shut down opposing ground games all year.
Add in the potential for re-injury, and starting Warren is an extremely risky proposition. I would much rather start someone a bit lower in the rankings with a lower ceiling in exchange for a safer floor.
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Start: Rhamondre Stevenson at Saints
One day, I dream of having the type of job security that Stevenson has with the Patriots. He put the ball on the ground once again in Week 5, his third fumble in the past three weeks. He also had seven fumbles in 2024, so he’s putting the ball on the ground more than just about anyone in football.
Yet the Patriots’ faith in Stevenson remains undeterred. Despite having a highly drafted rookie waiting in the wings (TreVeyon Henderson), Stevenson once again led the backfield in opportunities in Week 5 vs. the Bills. That included nearly all of the high-value touches. He played on 100% of the long-down-and-distance snaps and had 100% of the carries from inside the five-yard line, which he converted into two touchdowns.
The Patriots’ backfield also got a bit thinner last week, with Antonio Gibson going down with a season-ending injury. It makes Stevenson’s workload even more secure. It should be just him and Henderson moving forward, and the Patriots clearly don’t trust Henderson as more than a part-time player at this point.
Stevenson is in a solid spot to find the end zone once again in Week 6. While the Saints have actually been pretty good against the run this season, the Patriots are listed as 3.5-point road favorites. It sets up a potentially favorable game script, which is arguably the most important factor for a running back. It’s why the Saints have allowed the ninth-most PPR points to opposing RBs this season despite ranking ninth in EPA per rush allowed.
Sit: Jameson Williams at Chiefs
There’s a decent chance that Williams was available in your Guillotine Leagues™ after Week 5. He was the third-most-chopped player, sending 13.3% of teams to an early grave.
Williams is a prototypical “boom-or-bust” fantasy wide receiver. He plays for an explosive offense, but there are a lot of mouths to feed in Detroit. There are some weeks where Williams is going to erupt, but there are others where he’s going to be an afterthought. That was the case in Week 5, with Williams finishing with just one target, one reception, and nine yards.
In Guillotine Leagues™, the upside that Williams brings to the table means much less than what it does in standard leagues. There are no bonus points for coming in first in any given week until you make it to the finals. In other words, Williams’ “upside” is far outweighed by the downside that he provides in most matchups.
He checks in as WR32 in our current Week 6 rankings, but you simply cannot feel comfortable starting him against the Chiefs. Their pass defense has been excellent for most of the year before struggling a bit vs. the Jaguars in Week 5. They’re in the top half of the league in terms of big plays allowed in the passing game, and they’ve allowed just one catch of 40+ yards this season. Those are the types of plays that Williams typically makes his money with, so it’s not a particularly good spot.
Start: David Njoku at Steelers
When the Browns announced they were going to make the switch to Dillon Gabriel at quarterback in Week 5, most people assumed it would be a huge detriment to their offense. Gabriel was not considered a particularly good prospect at the position, combining a small frame with minimal arm strength. While Joe Flacco wasn’t playing particularly well, it seemed like it’d be a downgrade for the team’s pass catchers.
That may still end up being the case, but Njoku’s stock is at least pointing up after one week. He saw his most involvement of the season with Gabriel under center, posting a massive 32% target share vs. the Vikings in London. He also had 34% of the team’s air yards and 50% of their end zone targets, resulting in an elite 95 UR Score overall.
Gabriel’s lack of arm strength could end up being a massive win for Njoku overall. 19 of Gabriel’s 33 attempts in his first game went to tight ends or running backs, and he averaged just 6.2 air yards per attempt. That benefits Njoku far more than the team’s receivers, so it’s enough to get him back into fantasy managers’ good graces for Week 6 vs. the Steelers. The Steelers have also allowed the seventh-most PPR points to opposing TEs this season, so it’s a good matchup as well.
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