Wide Receiver Downgrades For 2025 Guillotine Leagues™: Fade Tee Higgins After A Career-Year?
Paul Charchian breaks down five wide receivers who are far riskier selections in Guillotine Leagues™ than they are in standard redraft leagues in 2025, including Tee Higgins after a top-five WR finish (PPG) in 2024.
Charch here, the founder and foremost expert in Guillotine Leagues™, the best, hottest way to play fantasy football. Guillotine Leagues™ drafts are deep, strategic, and a little exotic for the uninitiated.
Like every fantasy league, winning Guillotine Leagues™ starts on draft day. You can definitely recover from a bad draft more easily in Guillotine Leagues™—after all, you can simply spend your way to a better roster. But, a great draft means that you don't have to spend money early, giving you a major late-season advantage.
So, let's take a look at the different decisions I'd make at the WR position with five players whom I value lower in Guillotine Leagues™
formats than in redraft formats.
Wide Receiver Downgrades in Guillotine Leagues™
Tee Higgins - Bengals
-17 spots below standard league consensus
I need to start with a disclaimer that Tee Higgins is a really good player. But, his ADP, currently WR13, is too high for Guillotine Leagues™, which predicates itself on reliable production. The problem isn't with Higgins, it's with Ja'Marr Chase. Over his four seasons, Chase's targets have exploded, and rightfully so, ballooning to 175 last year. Chase is an absolute workhorse, and often there's just not enough pigskin to go around for Higgins.
In Higgins' last two seasons, he's played 24 games. In 12 of those games, he's finished as WR33 or worse. The common denominator for those dud games is a lack of targets and receptions. In those 12 games, Higgins has averaged just 5 targets and 3 receptions.
Again, he's WR13 as of this writing, which doesn't compute for a player with so many chop-worthy finishes.
Calvin Ridley - Titans
-15 spots below consensus
Calvin Ridley finished last year as a shockingly reliable fantasy player, scoring double-digit fantasy points in eight of the last 11 games. That, despite the scattershot passing of Will Levis and Mason Rudolph.
Ideally, Ridley will continue right where he left off. After all, Brian Callahan and Nick Holz return as the team's offensive brain trust, and they'd unlocked Ridley last year. But, the X-Factor is the learning curve of Cam Ward. He's got 1.01 pedigree, but one season earlier, he likely would have been selected in the bottom half of the first round.
Even good rookie quarterbacks typically struggle through their first month. And in Guillotine Leagues™, you don't have the luxury of waiting. Let's look at 2024's deeeep quarterback draft with six passers taken in the first 12 selections. Only one of the six, Jayden Daniels, was able to get consistent production from his receivers during September and most of October. At the outset of the season, Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Michael Penix, J.J. McCarthy, and Bo Nix either weren't good or weren't playing.
The point being, a rookie quarterback brings a lot of risk and downside to his receivers early in the year, and that could make Ridley a dangerous starter on your team.
Chris Godwin - Buccaneers
- 40 spots below consensus
There are a ton of variables working against Chris Godwin, especially early in the season as he attempts to return from last year's gruesome dislocated ankle injury. Godwin is hoping to be ready for Week 1, but his injury is especially tricky for a slot receiver who gains separation through shifty footwork.
But even if he's healthy and rust-free for the opener, there are other concerns around Godwin. Last year, Godwin was heavily used by offensive coordinator Liam Coen. But he's gone to Jacksonville, replaced by internal hire Josh Grizzard, who brings a Kleenex-thin resume to the table.
Last year, the Bucs got surprisingly competent play from third-rounder Jalen McMillan, who scored eight touchdowns and proved capable of extended playing time. And last April, the Bucs drafted Ohio State star Emeka Egbuka in the first round. Considering his remarkable productivity in college, Egbuka looks NFL-ready today.
Add McMillan and Egbuka to Mike Evans, and now the Bucs offense needs to support four receivers. Almost certainly, even if healthy, Godwin's target share will go down in 2025.
Matthew Golden - Packers
-18 spots below consensus
I'm always worried about rostering rookie wide receivers, but Golden has unusually high levels of danger for Guillotine Leagues™ players. If you've played fantasy football for 10 minutes, you know most rookies don't start as quickly as we'd like. We always want to see
Even though Golden has first-round equity, it doesn't automatically make him a Week 1 starter. He'll need to overcome non-trivial competition from established Packers receivers who already know the offense and have rapport with Jordan Love. Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, and (when healthy) Christian Watson aren't going to simply yield their playing time to Golden.
Adding to my concern is Golden's modest college resume, which may portend a slower acclimation to the NFL. He never topped 38 receptions until last year's 58 catches. By way of comparison, Emeka Egbuka, also a first-rounder, had 60 more catches for almost 1,000 more yards in college than Golden. That's, basically, a full season of less experience for Golden.
Brandon Aiyuk - 49ers
-12 spots below consensus
Obviously, we all hope Brandon Aiyuk makes a swift, successful return from last year's ACL and MCL tears. But can you bank your Guillotine Leagues™ season on it? I wouldn't.
Over time, Aiyuk will likely return to his prior form. But how long will that take? And will your team have survived every weekly chop by that time?
And, by the time he's 100%, will Aiyuk have lost his job to Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall? To my eyes, Jennings looked better than Aiyuk last year (PFF agrees, ranking Jennings at WR17 and Aiyuk at WR52). And Pearsall splashed at the end of last year, and last year's first-rounder could be a lot better as a sophomore.
As of this writing, Aiyuk is WR48, which makes sense for regular season-long leagues, but is too rich in Guillotine Leagues™, which emphasizes immediate production.
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