👑 My Kingdom For Some Points!

People don’t know this, but William Shakespeare was a big NFL bettor…

In today’s Betting Life Newsletter presented by Unabated:

• Unders: Should we expect them to continue to hit?
• Player Props! CMC ATD…
• A Group Chat Parlay: Gotta play the Cards you’re dealt.
• We’ve got you covered with last-minute bets
• SNF Betting: Raiders. Jets. Gross.
• It’s 11/12: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…

Gone is the halcyon scorefest of 2020, when NFL teams put up an all-time high 24.8 points per game.

Through nine weeks (plus Thursday Night Football), teams this year are averaging just 21.6 points. That’s a loss of more than three points… in just three years.

The last time we saw scoring this low was 2009, when teams averaged 21.5 points per game.

Why is scoring down?

Here are (in my opinion) the five primary culprits.

• Defenses: Teams are limiting explosive plays by using more two-high shells.
• QBs: We’ve seen a lot of QB injuries this year, and the younger generation of passers isn’t ready to replace the stalwarts who have retired over the past few years.
• Playcallers: Offensive coordinators are yet to counter the two-high shell, and they’ve failed to convert drives into TDs, especially in the red zone.
• Kickers: Over the past decade, kickers have become more accurate and powerful. As a result, coaches are conservatively and suboptimally willing to settle for FGs.
• Weather: We’ve seen some negative weather circumstances pop up early this year — and the weather is only going to get worse as we head into winter.

What does this mean for bettors?

📉 Should We Expect Unders to Continue to Hit?

The under this year is 84-52-1 (17.9% ROI, per Action Network). So far, it has been the most profitable season for under bettors for at least the past 20 years.

Will this trend continue?

I don’t see why not.

Sportsbooks have been slow to adjust to this league-wide trend going back to last season, when the under was 158-125-1 (6.9% ROI, including playoffs).

I’m not saying that you (or anyone) should blindly bet unders for the rest of the season, but the under will have my attention moving forward in the following circumstances.

🌠 Primetime Games

The under is 23-7 (46.6% ROI) in primetime games this year. Why? Not sure.

Maybe it’s because teams and players are forced out of their usual gameday routines for primetime games. Maybe it’s because the “island” nature of those games draws more general betting interest, which pushes the totals higher than they should be. I don’t know.

For what it’s worth, primetime unders were also highly profitable last year too, going 40-22 (23.3% ROI).

From now on, if I have projections that lean to the under and I can line shop +0.5 points of value to the rest of the market, I’ll be inclined to make a bet.

🤝 Divisional Games

For the past two decades, unders in divisional games have been profitable: 1,030-924-34 (2.3% ROI).

And they’ve been even more profitable in the second half of the season (including playoffs), when most divisional games are rematches. Starting in Week 10, unders in divisional games are 530-464-21 (3.7% ROI).

🌬️ Outdoor Games

In the second half of the season, when weather starts to become more of a consistent issue, we see scoring drop. Starting in Week 10 (including playoffs), unders in outdoor games are 990-882-38 (2.7% ROI).

In such games, I believe that wind more than temperature is the dominant factor. In outdoor games with winds of even just five miles per hour, the under is 710-592-25 (5.8% ROI). With 10 mph winds, outdoor unders are 291-205-8 (13.5% ROI). 

⬇️ Games With “Under Teams”

There are a number of “under teams” that have hit the over no more than twice in any of their games this year.

Here they are, with the under records.

• Giants: 8-1 (68.9% ROI)
• Steelers: 7-1 (67.6% ROI)
• Saints: 7-2 (49.0% ROI)
• Chiefs: 7-2 (48.9% ROI)
• Vikings: 7-2 (48.4% ROI)
• Raiders: 7-2 (48.3% ROI)
• Titans: 6-2 (43.6% ROI)
• Chargers: 6-2 (43.4% ROI)
• Buccaneers: 6-2 (43.4% ROI)

Most of these teams have either an overperforming defense or an underperforming offense — and some of them have both.

When they play, the unders will have my attention.

For everything you need for Week 10 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.

See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:

Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

🏈 Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-190, DraftKings)

• My Projection: -224.5
• Cutoff: -210

I hate betting TD props. I rarely do it.

But McCaffrey is on the verge of making TD history: He is tied for the NFL record with a TD in 17 consecutive games (including playoffs).

In his 22 games with the 49ers since joining the team via midseason trade last year, he has scored 26 TDs. In all but three of his 49ers games has he found the endzone (86.4%). The last time he didn’t score a TD was Week 12… almost a full calendar year ago.

The 49ers could make a big push to get McCaffrey sole possession of the record this week, and it’s not as if they’d be going out of their way to do so: They give him the ball as they approach the goal line. He leads the league with 35 redzone carries and also has six targets inside the 20-yard line.

At -190, McCaffrey has a 65.5% implied probability of scoring a TD this week, and I have his true odds of scoring projected at 69.2%.

That’s not a massive edge, but it’s enough for me to bet it — and with TD props, any edge at all is notable, given how much extra juice is normally infused in this market.

Plus, I’m getting a great discount to the market at -190, given that this same prop is as high as -286 at Caesars.

⛏️ Kenny Pickett Under 19.5 Completions (-105, BetMGM)

• My Projection: 19.4
• Cutoff: 19.5 (-120)

I’m cutting it close here with my projection, but I see Pickett as having a hard and low passing cap.

Throughout the season, Pickett’s completion prop has hovered in the 18.5-to-20.5 range, so the current number in the market is representative — and Pickett is 7-1 to the under. Only once this year has Pickett gone over 19.5 completions, and that was Week 1, when he had 31 in a 30-7 loss that saw him attempt a season-high 46 passes.

This week, though, the Steelers are home favorites of at least a field goal against a mediocre Packers team in a game with a total of only 39 points. The Steelers are likely to lean on their running attack for the duration of the contest, which should help Pickett stay under his prop total.

SEE THE REST OF FREEDMAN’S PROPS!

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Welcome to Week 10 of Bets from the Group Chat. This is where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit as much information as possible from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets for this week.

Another winner! If you’re tailing our group parlays, we’re now 2-2 after hitting again last week (+8.92 units overall, if betting one unit). The New Orleans Saints SGP came through as did my D’Andre Swift rush attempts over. 

You can find a bigger overall recap using the link at the bottom, but for now, let’s get right into the Week 10 plays.

1️⃣ Freedman & LaMarca Like: Cardinals ML (+105, BetMGM) 

• Play to +100

This is a play we are aligned on (in some way or another) in the free Fantasy Life bet tracker. 

The Cardinals are getting Kyler Murray AND James Conner back but they are also facing a failing Atlanta defense that isn’t great at getting to the QB (10th fewest sacks). 

Trends also favor a bounceback. Per The Action Network, teams to lose by 20 points or more the previous week, facing a team who didn’t, are 84-55-1 ATS (60.4%). If Arizona covers they’re likely going to win, so going moneyline makes sense. 

2️⃣ Jordan Likes: DeShaun Watson Over 188.5 Passing Yards (-115, BetMGM)

• Play to 189.5 (-110)
• Aggregate projection: 208.9

Deshaun Watson over 28.5 pass attempts was one of the first bets I made this week so an over on his yards is something I endorse. 

Watson was solid last week (7.3 yards per attempt) and the Browns should be looking to attack through the air after the Ravens stifled them on the ground in Week 4. Our projections love this one, giving a near 20-yard edge to the over. 

3️⃣ Geoff Ulrich Likes: Alvin Kamara under 13.5 carries (-105, BetMGM) 

• Play to 13.5 (-115)
• Aggregate projection: 13.2 rush attempts

Alvin Kamara is now dealing with competition for carries from three different sources (Williams, Hill, Miller) and has seen his carry percentage drop in four straight games. 

Despite that, he’s still got a line in the low to mid-teens for carries. The Vikings are a tougher run defense (5th best yards per carry against) and make Kamara a better receiving target in Week 10. 

🤝 Putting it all together: +647, BetMGM

• Cardinals ML +105
• Deshaun Watson over 188.5 passing yards -115
• Alvin Kamara under 13.5 rush attempts -105

📈 Week 10 Ladder Plays 

Ladder bets are where you spread your unit allocation over different milestones. 

The idea is to access bigger payouts while maintaining some exposure to the higher probability outcome lines as well. 

The Week 10 ladder targets are below.

📈 WR Amari Cooper (BetMGM)

• 75+ rec yards (+166): Play to +150
• 100+ rec yards (+410): Play to +400

Let’s build on our Watson prop from above. Despite having gone for 80+ yards in five of eight starts this year, we are still able to get Amari Cooper to go for 75+ yards at odds above +150 on BetMGM. 

Further, the Ravens’ ability to start quick (scored first in eight of nine games) means it’s more likely the Browns take to the air quickly too. Baltimore has allowed two 100+ yard games to opposing WRs and ceded 75+ yards in a game five times. 

Cooper has averaged 17.6 yards per catch and has a massive 43% air yards share. With the Baltimore matchup suppressing his odds, it’s a good time to “ladder up” on the Browns WR1.

MORE GROUP CHAT BETS!

🔙 Thursday Night Football Redux: The No. 1 pick lost to a guy named “Teabag.”

🎧 Living the dream: Bro goes from “Magic: The Gathering” player to sportsbook trader to professional bettor…

🤔 Sports betting strategy: When is it better to do parlays instead of straight bets?

📊 Taking a look at the smart kid’s homework. Where sharps are betting for Week 10.

🌽 Is it any wonder the OC got fired? “Iowa City” — more like “Under City” right?

🤝 When they score, you score. Touchdown bets for Week 10.

📺 Last minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.

💰 Need more picks & plays? We’re up 20.5 units in the last 30 days and have over 25 FREE bets waiting for you.

You can access everything you need for Raiders vs. Jets in our Game Hub, including projection guidance, bets, and more. Looking for a peek behind the curtain? We’ve got you covered.

Some weeks offer up a ton of great primetime games for our viewing pleasure. Week 10 is not one of those weeks. Even so, Matt LaMarca is here to highlight some of his favorite bets for Sunday Night Football.

After suffering through Panthers-Bears on Thursday Night Football, we’re “rewarded” with the Jets at the Raiders on Sunday night. The Jets are currently listed as -1 road favorites, while the total sits at a paltry 36.5.

👍 Best Bet: Under 36.5 (-110, BetMGM)

Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m taking the under in a primetime game. Huge shocker, I know, but if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.

As Freedman outlined earlier, unders have dominated in 2023. After another under on Thursday Night Football, unders are now a ridiculous 84-52-1 through the first nine-plus weeks. Going back to the start of last year, the under is 235-171-2.

Unders have been a particularly strong investment in primetime contests. They’re now 23-7 in night games in 2023, and 145-91-3 dating back to the start of the 2019-20 season.

Can unders continue to crush at this rate? I’m not 100% sure, but I don’t think Zach Wilson and Aidan O’Connell are the guys to buck the trend. O’Connell should struggle mightily against the elite Jets defense, while Wilson is going to be under constant duress from the Raiders pass rush.

⬆️ Top Prop: Josh Jacobs Over 17.5 carries (+100, BetMGM)

Jacobs hasn’t been nearly as effective this season as he was last year, when he led the league with 393 touches and more than 2,000 scrimmage yards. However, he remains an absolute workhorse. Jacobs has garnered 78% of the Raiders rushing attempts this season, and he’s on pace to lead the league in touches once again.

I expect him to be particularly busy against the Jets. While New York’s defense is dominant against the pass, they’re a bit more vulnerable on the ground. They’re first in dropback EPA over the past four weeks, but they’re merely 22nd in rushing.

☠️ Same-Game Parlay (+625, BetMGM)

• Under 36.5
• Jacobs Over 74.5 rushing yards
• O’Connell Under 219.5 passing yards
• Davante Adams Under 64.5 receiving yards

Unsurprisingly, I’m going to start off my SGP with Under 36.5 points. I’m not sure who’s going to win, but I feel pretty confident that neither team is going to be particularly explosive on offense.

After that, I’m going to keep things pretty simple. I’m taking the over on 74.5 rushing yards for Jacobs, and I’m pairing that with unders for O’Connell and Davante Adams. Not only do those bets make sense in this matchup, but they also correlate well with each other.

The result isn’t the most mouth-watering payout, but it’s good enough for me.

MORE SNF Bets You NEED