Is it just me, or has this felt like the longest week ever???
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by BetMGM:
- Super Bowl Injuries: 49ers healthy, Thuney out.
- Anytime TDs: Kelce and who else?
- Ladders: They’re built to be climbed.
- Billy Walters: Up to $1M on the Super Bowl?
- SGP: For the Swifties!
- It’s 2/10: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
We’re just one day away from Super Bowl 58.
Geoff Ulrich and Matt LaMarca break down several TD, ladder, and same-game parlay bets later in the newsletter.
Here are my thoughts on the final injury reports for the Chiefs and 49ers.
⛏️ 49ers
WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) exited the Divisional Round early, but he returned to action in the NFC Championship (with a team-high nine targets, eight receptions, and 89 yards receiving) and then avoided the injury report altogether this week. He should see his usual full workload.
In fact, everyone for San Francisco practiced fully on Friday, and DT Kalia Davis (ankle, IR) is the only person even questionable for this weekend. I expect Davis to sit (as he did for the NFC Championship), but his absence won’t make a difference.
On defense, the 49ers could use EDGEs Drake Jackson (knee, IR) and Clelin Ferrell (knee, IR) and especially SS Talanoa Hufanga (knee, IR) — but the players on the active roster are as healthy as possible.
🏹 Chiefs
The Chiefs are No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.026, per RBs Don’t Matter), and this week their defensive line will be thinner than usual without DT Derrick Nnadi (elbow, IR) and EDGE Charles Omenihu (knee). Not ideal.
Also, they’ll once again be without first-team All-Pro LG Joe Thuney (pectoral), as well as backup OT Prince Tega Wanogho (quad, IR) and probably RB Jerick McKinnon (groin, IR), who’s yet to practice fully.
And maybe worst of all: WR Skyy Moore (knee) has been activated from IR, and WR Kadarius Toney (hip, personal) didn’t appear at all on the injury report this week. Subtraction by addition, know what I mean?
But I tentatively expect Toney to be a gameday inactive and Moore to be sidelined for most of the contest. Hopefully.
On the positive side, LB Willie Gay (neck) practiced fully this week after exiting the Divisional Round early and missing the AFC Championship.
Even with their injury disadvantage, I still like the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
Check out more of Freedman’s Best Bets!
Imagine watching the big game and not having at least one TD prop to sweat. That’s about the most un-American, un-fun, thing I could think of. Here are a couple of Geoff Ulrich’s favorite Super Bowl TD props.
💪 Travis Kelce Anytime TD, First TD (+100, +700 FanDuel)
- Play to: -110, +600
Kelce vs. the 49ers defense should be an interesting matchup.
San Francisco has allowed only four receiving TDs to opposing TEs this year, but they have also rarely been up against a TE like Kelce. Further, as mentioned in the Betting Life newsletter from last Thursday, the 49ers lost starting SS Talanoa Hufanga in Week 11, and since that time they have been more susceptible to big games from opposing TEs.
They’ve allowed three TDs to the position over their past seven games, and in the NFC Championship, they nearly allowed rookie Sam LaPorta to clear the century mark, as he posted a 9-97 line on 13 targets.
I don’t mind chasing this down to -110 on the anytime TD odds, but looking at Kelce to be the first TD scorer in this game makes sense as well.
The 49ers have started slow in both of their postseason games, and the Chiefs, who scored first in 12 games this year, have thrown for the first score of the game eight times.
👍 Richie James Anytime TD (+1300, DraftKings)
- Play to: +1200
We talked about this bet briefly on the Prop Pod this week.
HC Andy Reid is well known for dialing up plays for some obscure names when he gets near the goal line. Last year in the Super Bowl the Chiefs threw TD passes to both Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore. Neither of those players may be active this week for Kansas City, which means it could be Richie James’ turn to have his name called in a high-leverage situation.
James played on 20% or more of the offensive snaps in each of the Chiefs’ three playoff games and also is the primary punt returner for Kansas City (giving him another potential way to score). The 49ers were typically stout against the run in the red zone this year but allowed the sixth-most TDs to opposing wide receivers.
James is certainly a longshot to score, but at +1300 he looks like the best available option of anyone currently set at +1000 or bigger in this market. At the very least, history tells us that Reid and Mahomes won’t be scared to call his number near the opposing goal line if the situation warrants it.
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Geoff Ulrich outlines some of his favorite ladder bets for Super Bowl 58. If you want more info on ladder betting in general, don’t forget to check out our on-site primer for ladder betting after you’re done as well.
✈️ Christian McCaffrey Receiving Yards (DraftKings)
- 50+ receiving yards (+230)
- 60+ receiving yards (+380)
- 70+ receiving yards (+600)
- 80+ receiving yards (+1000)
The Chiefs linebackers have had their issues in limiting gains from the backfield most of the season. In the AFC Championship, they allowed Justice Hill to go for 34 yards on four catches, and in Week 14 against the Bills they allowed James Cook to go for 81 yards on just five catches.
Given the Chiefs’ ability to bring pressure, and the fact they love to blitz (seventh-highest blitz rate in the league), there are a lot of game scripts that could see Brock Purdy dumping the ball off to McCaffrey relentlessly late to get us over some of these bigger totals.
I like starting McCaffrey ladder bets at the 50+ milestone and would allocate most of my capital to the 50+ and 60+ marks. However, I would certainly play this all the way up to 80+ yards and want at least some exposure to those bigger +1000 odds.
👎 Brock Purdy INTs (bet365)
- 1 INT (-130)
- 2 INTs (+375)
- 3 INTs (+1300)
Purdy has struggled more with pressure as the season has progressed. This week, he’ll face a Chiefs team that has landed an INT in each of its three playoff games — and that brings pressure as well as any team in the league. The 49ers have thrown the ball an average of 34.5 times in the playoffs, and in a game of such magnitude they likely won’t be holding back should they again find themselves trailing in the second half.
Interestingly enough, over 57 Super Bowls, there have been 16 different QBs who have thrown for three-plus INTs (so a QB has thrown at least three INTs in 28% of all Super Bowls). While it is unlikely Purdy will get to this milestone, at +1300 (three INTs) the implied probability of Purdy getting to this milestone is only 7.14%. You could certainly play the over on 0.5 INTs as a straight prop, but with +375 (2 INTs) and +1300 (3 INTs) odds at the bigger milestones, Purdy INTs offer us an interesting ladder opportunity for the big game as well.
🐶 Underdog Pick’Em Tracker: Sneak a peak!
💰 Super Bowl bets galore: They’re free, and we’re up +56.0 units for the season.
🤏 $500K to $1M: Legendary gambler makes a “small” Super Bowl bet.
🔪 Sharp money is flowing in. Identifying line movement worth attacking.
😓 Day late and a Jalen short. This massive award parlay came agonizingly close to hitting.
📺 Super Bowl Prop Pod: Geoff bets against Reba McEntire’s lungs.
🥧 Pie for dinner. How this betting pro divides up his Super Bowl props.
🚨 Last call for Super Bowl picks. Get our final picks in the Betting Life Super Bowl livestream.
🦵 Tip your Butker. Kickers may be people but can they also be MVPs?
🎧 Taylor Swift: Evidently, not all NFL fans like her …
Almost every sportsbook is offering some sort of SGP promotion for the Super Bowl, so you’re leaving money on the table if you’re not taking advantage. Matt LaMarca breaks down one possible option …
🤝 The “For the Swifties” SGP (+1796, FanDuel)
- Chiefs ML
- Over 47.5
- Travis Kelce 2+ TDs
- Kelce 70+ receiving yards
- Patrick Mahomes 250+ passing yards
I’ve outlined a few different ways you can play this contest for SGPs. Backing the Chiefs isn’t my personal favorite, but it certainly would not be a surprise if the Chiefs continued to flaunt their offensive superiority during the Super Bowl. Their full-season numbers were disappointing — 11th in EPA/play, 15th in points per game — but they may have flipped a switch during the playoffs. Perhaps they were just playing possum during the regular season in a very easy division.
One of the biggest developments for the Chiefs has been the eruption of Kelce. He was in a bit of a slump during the regular season, but his playoff numbers are downright historic. You don’t get to more career playoff catches than Jerry Rice without being extremely productive for a long time.
Kelce has historically done some of his best work in the redzone. He had two TDs in the Divisional Round vs. the Bills, and he added another score vs. the Ravens. Ultimately, Kelce has scored at least once in 14 of his past 18 postseason contests, and he’s scored multiple times in four of them. Going with at least two TDs instead of one is risky, but I’m willing to take a shot at a bigger payout.
70+ yards should also be a pretty easy threshold for him to clear. He’s done it in all three postseason games this season and 12 straight playoff games overall. The last time he didn’t get to 70 yards was the 2019-20 Super Bowl against the 49ers, and that defense was significantly different than it is now.
Pairing Kelce’s props with Mahomes is an obvious correlation to take advantage of. Like Kelce, Mahomes has frequently eclipsed 250 passing yards during the postseason, doing it in 13 of 17 playoff contests.
This SGP is the perfect option for those who want to dive headfirst into the Taylor Swift madness that is sure to dominate the Super Bowl coverage. Stop hating and start embracing.
