🃏 The Eagles Need To Go All-In

The best ball sickos are drafting already...

In today’s Fantasy Life Newsletter presented by The Athletic:

• Keys to the game.
• Rankings Update. Feels Good.
• Bets from the group chat: A bit of everything
• Player Matchups. He could run for miles...
• GOAT War!
• Its 2/11. Take it away Dwain McFarland...

One night to go before the big game is here.

In what Vegas projects as a close, high-scoring contest, both teams have plenty of reasons to be confident. So, how can each squad plan to steal away some of their opponent's swagger and better their chances at victory?

I am glad you asked...

🃏 Eagles: Go all-in on stopping Travis Kelce

Taking away Kelce is easier said than done, but if there is a team that can do it, it is the Eagles. They have the No. 1 DVOA defense against the pass allowing only 5.6 yards per attempt and 171 yards per game.

The Broncos — the No. 7 DVOA pass defense — held Kelce to zero TDs and under 75 yards twice this season using the same primary coverage concepts that Philadelphia deploys. On the outside, James Bradberry and Darius Slay both have top-10 PFF coverage grades and are mismatches against Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster — who aren't high-end target earners or consistent big-play threats.

With the Chiefs' outside receivers operating at a disadvantage, the Eagles can allocate more resources to Kelce and the middle of the field. This should especially be the case in the red zone and on third downs, where Kelce is by far the No. 1 option with 29% of end-zone targets and third-and-fourth down targets.

The counter-punch for Kansas City will be getting the ball to Jerick McKinnon and Kadarius Toney in space. McKinnon destroyed the Broncos for 165 yards and four receiving touchdowns. While this might sound scary, as long as the Eagles don't miss a lot of tackles, it isn't a bad way to force the Chiefs to operate.

🔥 Chiefs: Stop the run early and score early

The Eagles have the No. 1 rushing DVOA, and the Chiefs rank 15th against the run. While that in of itself isn't great for Kansas City, the bigger issue is trying to defend the Eagles' entire playbook.

If the run game is working well for Philadelphia, the Chiefs' defense could end up in no-man's land trying to guess what is coming all game. That is the scenario they must avoid because it enables the Eagles' passing offense to operate with high-end efficiency as the No. 2 YPA offense in the NFL.

If Kansas City can bottle up Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts early and create a lead, it will give the pressure of facing a Patrick Mahomes-led offense time to take root. While the Eagles are loaded in the passing attack, the Chiefs have the No. 6 PFF pass-rush grade, which will give them a chance to create momentum-changing plays on defense.

Kansas City has also faired well against high-end WRs using their Cover 2 packages. Opponents have zero TD receptions and average only 9.4 yards per reception against the Chiefs' most-used coverage. However, it's hard to use two-high safeties if the Eagles' run game is effective.

The Chiefs might have to take some chances early by loading the box, but if they can make the Eagles play one-dimensional football, it will allow them to lean into the strength of their defense.

We've been cranking out Super Bowl content all week. If you need something, chances are we have it. 

• Underdog Pick'em: Best Picks & Plays
• Underdog Battle Royale Strategy: Get those drafts in!
• DFS Showdown: What you need to know to win.
  
• Dwain McFarland's Super Bowl Utilization Report
• Dwain McFarland's Super Bowl Rankings & Tiers
• Get exotic with our best novelty bets.
• Sleeper Over/Under: Best Picks & Plays
• All of our picks & plays + more in the Game Hub

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Going with your gut can only get you so far. Use our industry-leading rankings to gain an edge over your competition. Need help? Don't worry, Dwain has you covered.

📈 Risers

📈 WR – Kadarius Toney

Toney practiced in full on Thursday and Friday and was removed from the injury report.

Like the number-one hit from the R&B group, Tony! Toni! Toné!... Kadarius Toney Feels Good.

While the second-year WR has yet to earn a full-time role with the Chiefs, he is one of Patrick Mahomes’ favorite targets when on the field.

Tony ranks No. 1 in TPRR (30%) and YPRR (2.70) in games with the Chiefs. It is clear that the two have a connection, with the Kansas City coaching staff even comparing it to how Mahomes and Travis Kelce vibe.

In a conversation with a couple of #Chiefs coaches about the chemistry between Mahomes and Kelce, it was brought up ... unsolicited ... that Mahomes has started building that type of feel with Kadarius Toney. They said Toney's role/value to the offense has grown because of it twitter.com/JamesPalmerTV/…

— James Palmer (@JamesPalmerTV)
Feb 10, 2023

While that is probably a step too far, Toney offers immense upside this weekend with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster most likely to be locked up by the Eagles’ elite cornerback duo of James Bradberry and Darius Slay. The Chiefs will move Toney around and allow him to win underneath in mismatches against linebackers and safeties, where his electric run-after-the-catch ability can help manufacture easy yards. His TPRR surges to 40% against Cover 3, which is Philadelphia’s base scheme.

Toney is a boom-bust option with the upside to lead the Chiefs in fantasy production, even in a limited role.

📈 WR – JuJu Smith-Schuster

Smith-Schuster practiced in full all week after missing all last week and was removed from the injury report. His 80%-plus route participation track record since Week 13 means he will likely be on the field in most personnel groupings.

The matchup on the outside versus the Eagles' corners isn’t favorable, but Smith-Schuster rotates into the slot on 41% of his routes, which will shield him on some plays. If Philadelphia gives extra attention to Kelce, the veteran WR could see favorable looks on the inside.

Smith-Schuster’s fantasy production has been a letdown due to an inability to demand targets at a high level. However, we have seen spike week production from the veteran WR with five outings of 18 points or more.

📉 Fallers 

📉 WR – Marquez Valdes-Scantling

With Toney and Smith-Schuster fully healthy, Valdes-Scantling’s outlook takes a hit. He hasn’t been able to break free from his lackluster target-earning reputation in Green Bay, thanks to a 13% target share.

He is the Chiefs' primary downfield receiver with a 15.0 aDOT, so he could still come through on a big play, but James Bradberry is a nightmare matchup for big-bodied vertical receivers. In order to come through, Valdes-Scantling will need more schemed looks to pad his opportunities, which is unlikely with a healthy WR room.

MVS has gone under the BetMGM receiving yard prop of 35.5 (-115) in 10 of 17 contests, and that is where the smart money belongs in the Super Bowl.

🐐 Two GOATs beefing? Sounds like he roots against him.

📽 Patrick Mahomes, the movie critic? Nailed it.

😒 Say it ain't so, Emmitt. Cowboys can't root for the Eagles...

🤷‍♂️ What if Philadelphia starts hot? The Chiefs don't care.

💵 They have been a top-five offense. Without much offensive investment.

🎲 Only nine players have done this. He has a chance, but it's been a while.

☠️ Remove TEs from fantasy? Gotta have grit.

😂 T.J. Who'sYoMomma. Championship!

Our resident betting sharps at Fantasy Life have a group chat. Lucky for you, they are leaking the alpha. Here's what Jordan & the rest of the betting team came up with for the Super Bowl...

Kicking things off, we have Dwain McFarland's top prop of the week. 

💰 Dallas Goedert Over 47.5 Receiving Yards

Goedert averages 55.9 yards per game and has hit the over in 8 of 14 contests. He has target shares of 23%, 22% and 25% over the last three games.

Despite the Eagles only needing to drop back to pass 40% of their plays over the last two games, he still has 10 targets. Unless we think the Eagles will blow out the Chiefs, this is a strong Super Bowl bet at -115.

Heading over to the Chiefs' side of the ball, we have two of our contributors backing Jerick McKinnon on a over. Let's dive in with Drumheller & LaMarca

💰 Jerick McKinnon Over 19.5 Receiving Yards 

With weakness at both offense tackles, Kansas City will have to find a way to counter Philadelphia's pass rush.

Nobody cooks up a better screen game than Andy Reid. Getting the ball into the hands of the shifty McKinnon in space makes a ton of sense here, considering the Eagles rank 24th (per Football Outsiders) at defending running backs and have a below-league-average (18th) tackling grade.

McKinnon's reliability in both pass protection and as a receiver should earn him a bigger piece of the game plan against an aggressive defense like Philadelphia. 

The Fantasy Life projections have McKinnon set for almost 32 receiving yards. 

We're staying on the Chiefs' side of the ball with this next one. Geoff, take it away. 

💰 Patrick Mahomes Over 0.5 INTs

The Eagles' defense is legit. They ranked first in defensive pass DVOA this season and bring pressure like no other unit. Unsurprisingly, they also ranked third in INTs and will be a tough matchup for Mahomes.

With Mahomes having thrown 12 INTs in 19 games already this season, anything close to even money makes this look like a solid overplay as well. 

Every Sunday, we highlight the most interesting matchups you should be aware of before locking in your lineups, and we have one big game left to go! Take it away, Sam...

🚀 Miles Sanders

We’ve been blessed with a great matchup; let’s enjoy this.

With so much star power on both sides of the ball, I’m looking for a potentially under-the-radar option with enticing upside: RB Miles Sanders.

The fourth-year veteran finished the regular season with an impressive 259 / 1,269 / 11 line on the ground, all of which were career highs. However, he posted career lows in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.

The blessing and curse of having Jalen Hurts as your QB.

Despite the presence of Hurts, elite WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, and star TE Dallas Goedert, Philly made it a point to feed Sanders. He finished as the RB7 in rushing attempts, even with Hurts chipping in 165 totes of his own.

Sanders also finished as the RB4 in rushing attempts of 10+ yards. He provided the burst to keep drives alive and the balance to keep defenses honest.

The Chiefs present an interesting challenge. They finished as the top-scoring team this season but are susceptible on defense. Per our NFL DvP tool, they finished 19th against opposing RBs. This plays right into a key strength of the Eagles.

Philly starts games fast.

If they get up on you, they can lean on their ground game in a punishing manner. Mark Drumheller has this to say about the Eagles in our Game Hub:

The Eagles are 14-5 ATS in first halves this season, and a big advantage in the trenches should allow them to start fast here without being overly reliant on the passing game. K.C.'s defense ranks 21st in adjustment line yards and allowed 7 yards per carry (14-98 yds) to Jacksonville's running backs just two weeks ago.

If that’s not enough, Geoff Ulrich added this gem to the Game Hub:

In terms of matchup, the Eagles' rushing offense vs. the Chiefs' rush defense isn’t a fair fight. Philadelphia ranked first in offensive rush DVOA, while Kansas City's defense finished 15th against the rush.

The Eagles coaching staff is certainly aware of this, and you should be too.

Sanders handled 70% of the RB rushing attempts this season and will remain a key component of this offense for their biggest game of the year.

Please tell me why this photo from NFL Honors looks like I’m posing for a plaque after winning the “Assistant to the Regional Manager of the Year” award…

— JJ Watt (@JJWatt)
Feb 10, 2023