2023 Fantasy Football RB Tiers

2023 Fantasy Football RB Tiers

Yes, the NFL season doesn’t start for basically another six months. Also yes, fantasy football never sleeps, and it’s always a great day to be great.

What follows is the first edition of my 2023 fantasy football RB tiers. The players are ranked in order within their specific tiers, but realize that the disparity is far wider between tiers as opposed to individual rankings.

Check out Fantasy Life’s ADP tool for updated average draft position data throughout the offseason.

Tier 1: Fantasy football cheat codes (RB1-2)

RB1: 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey

• Underdog ADP: 3.1 (RB1)

Both with Carolina and with San Francisco last year, Christian McCaffrey was remarkably consistent. He averaged 17.5 expected PPR points from Weeks 1 to 6 with the Panthers, and he averaged 18.3 from Week 7 through the NFC Championship with the 49ers.

A slightly reduced role in the passing game in San Francisco wasn’t enough to stop McCaffrey from racking up all kinds of fantasy points. He scored an absurd 13 total TDs in 14 games with the 49ers (including postseason).

The only real concern for McCaffrey heading into 2023 is that a healthier overall backfield leads to slightly less ridiculous snap counts from week to week.

While McCaffrey cleared the 70% snap threshold in 57% of his games with the 49ers, he failed to clear that mark even once in essentially the only three games he played with a healthy Elijah Mitchell.

McCaffrey will be 27 years old next season, but nothing about his 2022 performance indicated a decline. The all-time RB1 in PPR points per game (PPG) remains the RB1 heading into 2023 thanks to his workhorse status on one of the NFL’s perennially best-schemed offenses.

RB2: Chargers RB Austin Ekeler

• Underdog ADP: 12.6 (RB3)

The Chargers recently granted stud RB Austin Ekeler permission to seek a trade. No RB has scored more total TDs than Ekeler (38) over the past two seasons, and his borderline-erotic receiving ability would provide a boost to literally any offense in the NFL.

There's just one problem: Ekeler might have a hard time maintaining the fantasy-friendly usage he's enjoyed in Los Angeles with his new potential team.

Targets are earned to an extent, but his 127 targets in 2022 were a full 19 more than the next-closest RB (McCaffrey saw 108 targets) and 39 more than the RB in third place (Rhamondre Stevenson saw 88 targets).

It’d be silly for a team to trade for Ekeler, pay him a more lucrative long-term contract, and then proceed not to throw him the football. Wherever he goes, Ekeler would likely be used heavily as a receiver, but literally no team has provided more expected PPR PPG to their backfield than the Chargers have over the past three seasons.

The best-case scenario for Ekeler’s 2023 fantasy stock would be to remain with the Chargers. We'll just have to wait and see whether a trade materializes for him this offseason, possibly during the NFL Draft.

Regardless, his Underdog ADP is lower than we saw it last season despite the elite production. You can take advantage of the discount with a 100% deposit match of up to $100 using the offer below with a new Underdog Fantasy account.

Tier 2: Every-down workhorse RBs (RB3-5)

RB3: Giants RB Saquon Barkley

• Underdog ADP: 14.3 (RB5)

Saquon Barkley’s placement comes down to his pristine workload on an offense that did a fairly good job improving its overall pass-game weaponry this offseason.

Only the Titans and Raiders were more willing to feed their RBs 20 and 25-plus touches during any given game last season than the Giants.

It’d be a lot cooler if Barkley’s receiving prowess gets back to early-career levels, though. He averaged just 5.7 PPR PPG from pure receiving production compared to 11.7 PPR PPG from receiving back in 2018.

Still, the reigning RB5 in both real and expected PPR PPG is projected to see too much volume to bust. Here’s to hoping that the Giants will find a way to improve PFF’s 30th-ranked offensive line from 2022 through the draft. If they can do that, Barkley could end up setting a career-high in fantasy points in 2023.

RB4: Raiders RB Josh Jacobs

• Underdog ADP: 29.4 (RB11)

Nobody had more total yards (2,053) or touches (393) than Josh Jacobs last season, and he did it with style. Arguably no RB was better in terms of maximizing broken tackles and yards after contact per carry in 2022.

There’s not much substance to the idea that RBs burn out after receiving a heavy workload the year before, and Jacobs’s 1,072 career NFL carries is still quite a bit below the 1,500 threshold that signifies when fantasy managers should begin to expect a decline in rushing yards over expectation.

It’s not a given that head coach Josh McDaniels will hand Jacobs the same sort of ridiculous workload in 2023, although the team’s decision to franchise tag the NFL’s reigning rushing king certainly seems to indicate he’ll once again be one of the league’s more well-fed backs.

Adding Jimmy Garoppolo to the equation is a net positive considering his rather absurd career efficiency (No. 1 all-time in yards per attempt!) and the negative impact that a more mobile QB might have had.

Fire up Jacobs as the top-five fantasy asset that he was for all of 2022.

RB5: Cowboys RB Tony Pollard

• Underdog ADP: 29.3 (RB10)

The Cowboys have only asked Tony Pollard to play more than 60% of the offense’s snaps on three occasions since drafting him in the fourth round of the 2019 NFL Draft:

• 2020 Week 15: 12-69-2 rushing, 6-63-0 receiving, 90% snaps
• 2022 Week 7: 12-83-0 rushing, 2-26-0 receiving, 87% snaps
• 2022 Week 10: 22-115-1 rushing, 3-13-0 receiving, 65% snaps

It’s not a coincidence that free agent Ezekiel Elliott was injured or ruled out on all three occasions. Dallas has been reluctant to fully feature Pollard over the years, but they were far more willing to give him a true every-down role when Elliott was out of the picture.

The Cowboys might not quite view Pollard as the sort of grinder worth feeding 20-plus carries up the middle every week, but that sort of role isn’t as valuable as one featuring the soon to be 26-year-old’s rather awesome talents in the passing game.

As with Jacobs, don’t be surprised if Pollard is given an awfully fantasy-friendly workload while signed to the franchise tag.

The Cowboys’ new and improved RB1 might not have the same gaudy touch ceiling as my top-four RBs, but Pollard's proven explosiveness and featured role on the NFL’s reigning fourth-ranked scoring offense keeps him inside the position’s top five.

Tier 3: RBs who project for 300+ touches and are good at football (RB6-12)

RB6: Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker

• Underdog ADP: 22.5 (RB6)

There were times in 2022 when Walker appeared to be moving at a different speed compared to everyone else on the football field.

More targets would always be ideal, but the Seahawks managed to feed Walker at least 15 touches in each of his 10 healthy starts. This included six games with 20-plus carries, giving him a true workhorse on the league’s reigning ninth-ranked scoring offense.

Turning 23 years old in October, Walker is an ascending young talent with a tendency to make at least one absolutely ridiculous run per week. His projected workload isn’t much different from the rest of the backs in this tier, but I’m happy to prioritize his youth and rather absurd big-play ability.

Per PFF, the only two RBs who gained over 40% of their rushing yards exclusively on rushes of 15-plus yards last year among 33 RBs with 150-plus carries were Pollard and Walker.

RB7: Colts RB Jonathan Taylor

• Underdog ADP: 10.9 (RB2)

Jonathan Taylor’s workload didn’t change all that much last season from what it was the year prior. The main difference was that the Colts’ 30th-ranked scoring offense last year struggled to yield him the same sort of fantasy-friendly goal line opportunities.

As a result, Taylor averaged 17.9 expected PPR PPG in 2021 compared to just 15.3 expected PPR PPG last year.

Taylor’s 26 rush attempts inside the five-yard line led all RBs in 2021, and the next-closest player had nine fewer carries. But in 2022, Taylor saw just eight goal-line carries in 11 injury-riddled contests.

Last season was largely considered a disappointment considering that Taylor almost always went in the top-two picks of fantasy drafts. Just realize that the offensive environment was the primary culprit.

Unfortunately, that variable isn’t exactly guaranteed to change for the better in 2023. The Colts remain without a true long-term answer under center and have turned the offense over to former Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen.

It’d make sense if Steichen, you know, were to feed his best offensive talent the rock, Taylor led the league with 332 carries in 2021, and that kind of workload is hardly guaranteed to reoccur this coming year.

Taylor is a great talent, but so are a handful of other RBs. His probable lack of a featured pass-down role on a potentially anemic offense makes it tough to prioritize him in drafts like the top-two fantasy RB he was drafted as last offseason.

RB8: Rookie RB Bijan Robinson

• Underdog ADP: 13.3 (RB4)

From Fantasy Life’s dynasty rookie profile on Robinson:

“No one will argue that Robinson's ceiling is the top overall fantasy player in 2023 in the right landing spot. If a team like the Eagles, Falcons, Bengals, or Chargers were to draft Robinson, fantasy GMs would be jumping for joy.

However, it's possible that Robinson could end up in a worse landing spot, in which case his current best ball ADP would be overvalued by multiple rounds. Looking at some of the top teams favored to draft him, it's possible that Robinson could end up competing for touches with a RB like Alvin Kamara, D'Andre Swift, Tony Pollard, or Brian Robinson.

While his talent would shine through, a timeshare would make it nearly impossible for Robinson to pay off his current ADP. As a result, I'm underweight on the star RB prospect at his current Underdog ADP in the early-second round.”

Oct 1, 2022; Austin, Texas, USA; Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (5) eludes West Virginia Mountaineers defensive back Davis Mallinger (27) during the first half at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Robinson’s absurd pass-down chops give him the edge over the rest of this tier’s RBs. However, it's possible that the consensus RB of the 2023 rookie class will land on an offense that will 1.) Actually be good at scoring points, and 2.) Be comfortable feeding him the sort of 300-plus touch workload any RB would need to warrant his current sky-high ADP.

First-round RBs do usually get fed the ball quite a bit as rookies, but understand that Robinson is being priced far closer to his ceiling than his floor at the moment.

RB9: Browns RB Nick Chubb

• Underdog ADP: 27.9 (RB9)

Kareem Hunt remains a free agent, and D’Ernest Johnson signed with the Jaguars, which means that Nick Chubb might finally get the sort of three-down role that his extraterrestrial level of talent deserves.

It’s a minor miracle how well Chubb has performed in fantasy land considering the extent to which the Browns have refrained from fully featuring him:

• 2020: RB28 expected PPR PPG, RB9 actual PPR PPG
• 2021: RB20 expected, RB12 actual
• 2022: RB18 expected, RB8 actual

Per PFF, Chubb ranks inside the NFL’s top-three RBs in yards per carry (5.2), yards after contact per carry (3.9) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.25) among 64 backs with 300-plus carries since 2018.

While no one is going to confuse him for McCaffrey as a dynamic receiver, Chubb’s career 5.5% drop rate ranks a respectable 21st among 58 qualifying backs, so it's not as though he can't catch.

It’s certainly possible that Jerome Ford or a future signing turns this back into more of a committee, but for now, Chubb profiles as a safe bet for 300-plus touches on a Cleveland offense that has the potential to take a rather large leap if Deshaun Watson return to the level he was playing at in Houston.

RB10: Jaguars RB Travis Etienne

• Underdog ADP: 31 (RB12)

The good news is that Travis Etienne racked up 1,441 total yards and five scores in his de facto rookie season in 2022. He also added 201 total yards and a TD in two playoff contests. The man is absolutely electric in the open field and theoretically combines his patented big-play ability with solid pass-catching chops.

The bad news is that I have a hard time figuring out why Etienne lost so much work to JaMycal Hasty in pass-first situations down the stretch. Hasty quite literally out-snapped Etienne 35 to 26 against the Chiefs despite the fact that the Jaguars were never facing a deficit larger than 10 points in that game.

Yes, Etienne suffered a foot injury in Week 12, but that didn’t stop the Jaguars from handing him an 88% snap share the very next week. He also posted a workhorse 86% snap share in the Jaguars’ thrilling Wild Card comeback over the Chargers, which obviously featured plenty of negative game script.

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) rushes for yards against Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Drue Tranquill (49) during the fourth quarter of an NFL first round playoff football matchup Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Los Angeles Chargers on a field goal 31-30. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Jki 011423 Chargers Jags Cp 88 Credit: Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK

It's fair to wonder if head coach Doug Pederson could look to divide things up just a bit more evenly in 2023 after James Robinson, who was traded away midseason, fumbled four times and had a brutal 49.8 PFF receiving grade (43rd among 47 qualifying RBs).

But on the surface, Hasty and the recently signed D’Ernest Johnson shouldn’t be major competition for Etienne handling a workhorse role. 

With the Jaguars potentially ascending as an offense next year, it’s tough to rank Etienne too low even if you truly believe more of a committee backfield is incoming. However, the potential lack of a featured receiving role is why I have him ranked as a back-end RB1 borderline rather than a top-five fantasy RB for 2023.

RB11: Vikings RB Dalvin Cook

• Underdog ADP: 58 (RB15)

Trade rumors have surrounded the 28-year-old veteran this offseason. The Vikings could save $11 million against the cap if they were to trade or cut Dalvin Cook after June 1st.

Such a move is a distinct possibility considering that Minnesota currently ranks dead last in effective salary cap space at the time of this writing.

If healthy and with the Vikings, though, Cook projects for 300-plus touches and double-digit TDs. He’ll once again be a weekly staple in the RB1 ranks and someone worth targeting in the early rounds of fantasy drafts of all shapes and sizes.

However, like Etienne, Cook is ranked as a back-end RB1 due to head coach Kevin O’Connell taking a page out of mentor Sean McVay’s book in not overly featuring his lead RB in the passing game. Here are Cook's average targets per game since entering the league.

• 2017: 4.0 targets
• 2018: 4.5 targets
• 2019: 4.5 targets
• 2020: 3.9 targets
• 2021: 3.8 targets
• 2022: 3.3 targets

The RB age cliff isn’t until 29, so don’t be surprised if Cook puts forward another top-12 fantasy season behind arguably the best offensive line of his career, as PFF ranked Minnesota's line as the 13th-best unit heading into this offseason (yes, the bar isn't very high).

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RB12: Titans RB Derrick Henry

• Underdog ADP: 27.2 (RB8)

Unlike Cook, Henry has reached that point in his career where it’s terribly rare to see RBs put up big-time fantasy numbers.

Credit to The Big Dog for posting a top-two mark in rushing yards per game for the fourth-consecutive season in 2022, but it was also the second consecutive season that he averaged fewer than 4.5 yards per carry after averaging over 5.0 yards per carry during the first five years of his career.

Surprisingly, Henry’s 2022 fantasy success was in large part thanks to smashing previous career-high marks in receptions (33 vs. 19) and receiving yards (398 vs. 206). However, he still graded out as PFF’s second-worst receiving RB, so it’s unlikely that he'll see as big of a pass-game role with the return of a healthy Dontrell Hilliard.

That said, the Titans appear poised to hand Henry 300-plus touches per season until the wheels fall off. It’s rather incredible that Henry has only missed more than one game in just one season during his seven-year career.

Still, all signs indicate that he’s already played his best football.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that Henry is a “do not draft” candidate. Don’t hate the player, hate the ADP, but I’ll be prioritizing younger RBs in better offenses in the early rounds even if they project to see slightly less volume than Henry.

Tier 4: Bell-cow RBs with a red flag (RB13-19)

RB13: Steelers RB Najee Harris

• Underdog ADP: 42.4 (RB14)

Najee Harris was a little worse in 2022 compared to 2021 in terms of raw yards per carry (3.8 vs. 3.9) and yards per target (4.3 vs. 5.0), but that’s not why he went from the RB7 in PPR PPG to the RB19.

The answer to that question is simple: pass-game volume. Old man Ben Roethlisberger fed Harris a ridiculous 94 targets as a rookie, but that total was nearly cut in half down to 53 targets in 2022. This dropped Harris’s expected PPR PPG from 19.7 (RB2 behind only Henry) to 14.9 (RB12).

While Harris deserves credit for being able to hurdle, truck, and spin his way around defenders of all shapes and sizes, a lack of big-play ability makes it tough for him to overcome any sort of volume decline. This is especially true playing on a Steelers offense that ranked 21st and 26th in scoring in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

Any combination of improved offense, efficiency, and/or volume would make Harris a bargain at his current ADP. Unfortunately, none of those factors can be considered a given for the 25-year-old RB.

RB14: Jets RB Breece Hall

• Underdog ADP: 25.1 (RB7)

I broke down Breece Hall’s recovery from a torn ACL recently on FantasyLife.com:

“Hall tore his ACL, but has minimal meniscus damage per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Hall said at the end of the season that he was ahead of schedule in his rehab.

Dr. Porras says to expect a very similar recovery to what Saquon Barkley had in 2021 (hopefully without the fluke re-aggravation). Dr. Mueller notes that Hall is trending towards being a full-go by Week 1; he’s far more concerned about Javonte’s recovery. The first few weeks have the potential to be annoying, but Hall certainly seems to be on track to get back to his usual explosive self by October.

2023 concern: 6/10 – Could be limited to start the season and/or it wouldn’t be surprising if they miss a game or two.”

Oct 9, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) runs with the ball while Miami Dolphins cornerback Nik Needham (40) attempts to tackle him during the first half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland-USA TODAY Sports

Hall was electric as a rookie even though the Jets only gave him 15-plus touches in three of his six healthy games. He’s fully expected to work as the lead RB upon his return, but a ramp-up period to start the season would makes sense, so don't expect a workhorse role right out of the gate.

New offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett also refused to feature a then-healthy Javonte Williams ahead of a clearly washed Melvin Gordon during the first month of 2022 while with Denver, so it may be prudent to temper expectations for Hall's projected workload in 2023.

The big difference between Hall's return from an ACL in 2023 compared to Barkley's return from an ACL in 2021 is that we had already seen Barkley get a true workhorse as a rookie in New York. Hall wasn't utilized in that way as a rookie prior to his injury, and it remains to be seen whether Hall will be afforded that opportunity this season.

Hall’s expected PPR PPG (RB12) last year wasn't in line with his realized production (RB7) as a rookie. He’s not an auto-fade by any stretch, but the combination of injury recovery and committee potential has me shying away from his current ADP as a top-seven RB.

RB15: Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson

• Underdog ADP: 34.3 (RB13)

Rhamondre Stevenson racked up 1,461 total yards and six TDs during his breakout 2022 campaign, displaying plenty of skill as both a rusher (13th in PFF rushing grade) and receiver (14th in PFF receiving grade) along the way.

The only potential problem is that history tells us not to get overly comfortable a New England backfield. The Patriots’ list of top-scoring RBs in PPR PPG since 2010 (eight games minimum) has been turbulent, to say the least:

• 2022: Stevenson (RB10)
• 2021: Damien Harris (RB20)
• 2020: Rex Burkhead (RB35)
• 2019: James White (RB23)
• 2018: White (RB9)
• 2017: Burkhead (RB18)
• 2016: LeGarrette Blount (RB15)
• 2015: Blount (RB38)
• 2014: Shane Vereen (RB31)
• 2013: Vereen (RB8)
• 2012: Stevan Ridley (RB20)
• 2011: BenJarvus Green-Ellis (RB30)
• 2010: Green-Ellis (RB20)

There have been some great performances, but there's also been a lot of turnover. The good news for Stevenson is that his expected status as the primary pass-down RB places him alongside some of the better comps from the list above.

Still, it wasn’t as though Stevenson was a workhorse from Week 1 last season. The Patriots’ backfield was largely a walking graveyard all year:

• James White retired in August just before the season.
• Ty Montgomery suffered an ankle injury in the final preseason game of the preseason but played and even out-snapped Stevenson in Week 1. He then suffered an upper body injury and was immediately placed on injured reserve, missing the rest of the season.
• Damien Harris suffered hamstring and thigh injuries last year that limited him to just 11 games. It's worth noting, though, that Harris had more carries (94) than Stevenson (88) in the eight games that he was healthy enough to play 15-plus snaps.

Credit to Stevenson for holding off the likes of Pierre Strong Jr., Kevin Harris, and J.J. Taylor, but this was far more of a committee backfield when Harris was healthy than most likely remember.

While Harris is now a member of #BillsMafia, the Patriots did sign former Jaguars and Jets RB James Robinson to a two-year, $4 million contract.

That's not exactly a reason to sound the alarms, and it’d be shocking if Stevenson doesn’t lead New England's backfield this coming season. Just realize that Stevenson's current ADP might be a bit optimistic considering how different his 2022 production might've been had Harris been healthy all year.

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RB16: Bengals RB Joe Mixon

• Underdog ADP: 78.9 (RB24)

There are two key concerns for Joe Mixon’s 2023 status. The first is Mixon's history of off-field issues.

A warrant was initially issued in Cincinnati for Mixon’s arrest for aggravated menacing back on February 2nd. The case was dismissed, although there is a two-year timeline for the case to be re-filed.

Ultimately, fantasy football legal expert Drew Davenport doesn’t believe the case will be re-filed and said, “For re-draft purposes this upcoming season, he’s probably going to be alright, it’s probably a reasonable risk to take. But for dynasty purposes I’d be all the way out.”

Davenport referenced Mixon’s murky history as a reason to be concerned about him committing another future mistake. On March 7th, the Hamilton County Sheriff’s Office said that Mixon’s home was considered part of a crime scene after an alleged shooting in his neighborhood. However, no charges have been filed, and Mixon hasn't been named as a suspect by the Hamilton County sheriff’s office.

While Mixon is not currently expected to face suspension for either incident, they do show that Mixon could be a risky pick. The second key concern regarding Mixon is his contract situation.

The Bengals could save about $7.3 million by releasing Mixon before June 1st, though they may choose to retain Mixon following the departure of Samaje Perine. Perine's departure for Denver leaves Cincinnati thin at RB behind Mixon.

Still, upcoming contract talks for Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, and perhaps even Tee Higgins could still make the front office take a long look at Mixon’s current deal. As of this writing, only Alvin Kamara ($75 million), McCaffrey ($64 million), Cook ($63 million), and Henry ($50 million) are signed to a contract worth a higher total value than Mixon ($48 million).

Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon (28) runs the ball as he s pursued by Buffalo Bills linebacker Tremaine Edmunds (49) in the first quarter of the NFL divisional playoff football game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Buffalo Bills, Sunday, Jan. 22, 2023, at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, N.Y. The Bengals led 17-7 at halftime. Cincinnati Bengals At Buffalo Bills Afc Divisional Jan 22 460 Credit: Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Mixon’s current ranking as my RB16 accounts for uncertainty surrounding his future. If he remains the lead RB in Cincinnati come August, then Mixon will likely move up into my top-12 RBs.

Only Ekeler averaged more expected PPR PPG than Mixon last year, and the absence of Perine also opens up the possibility of even more pass-down work for Mixon, which would further elevate his fantasy floor and ceiling.

Right now is the best time to take a chance on Mixon in best ball formats, as his ADP will inevitably rise later in the offseason if he remains with the Bengals following June 1st.

RB17: Rams RB Cam Akers

• Underdog ADP: 82.3 (RB25)

Cam Akers’s 2022 campaign consisted of inconsistent usage and trade rumors…and then a surprising breakout during the final six weeks of the season.

• Week 13: 17-60-2 rushing, 1-0-0 receiving, 72% snaps
• Week 14: 12-42-1 rushing, 1-1-0 receiving, 42% snaps
• Week 15: 12-65-0 rushing, 3-35-0 receiving, 76% snaps
• Week 16: 23-118-3 rushing, 2-29-0 receiving, 75% snaps
• Week 17: 19-123-0 rushing, 1-10-0 receiving, 78% snaps
• Week 18: 21-104-0 rushing, 3-24-0 receiving, 100% snaps

Akers was shockingly the PPR RB4 over the final six weeks of last season. And he'll be just 24 years old in June, making Akers younger than the typical rising fourth-year RB in terms of both actual age and mileage.

If the Rams don't add any serious backfield competition, Akers currently projects to be the lead back heading into 2023. And while Akers may not see true workhorse usage given that McVay’s RB usage has been finicky in the post-Todd Gurley era, the potential is there.

Our most recent sample size from Akers produced some legit RB1-level goodness, and he could be among the more undervalued RBs heading into 2023.

RB18: Cardinals RB James Conner

• Underdog ADP: 100.6 (RB32)

James Conner has never played a full season, although he has suited up for at least 13 contests every year except for 2019, when Conner played 10 games.

Turning 28 years old in May, the age cliff is near for Conner. Add in the fact that the Cardinals tentatively expect to be without Kyler Murray for a chunk of early-season action, and there isn’t a ton to like about Conner's fantasy prospects heading into 2023.

Jan 1, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Arizona Cardinals running back James Conner (6) stiff arms Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24) in the first half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

That is, except for one little thing: volume.

It’s not a given that new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing will be willing to give Conner the same sort of every-down role that Kliff Kingsbury did, but at a minimum, the veteran RB has proven capable of playing on all three downs at a solid level.

Arizona kept Conner on the field for at least 90% of the offense’s snaps in five games last season, and generally speaking, a 60% snap share is usually good enough for fantasy purposes.

Conner has posted back-to-back top-10 finishes in PPR PPG, so while it’s not fun to draft elderly RBs in likely bad offenses, he can still be a top-15 RB option as long as the Cardinals refrain from adding impactful competition to the backfield.

RB19: Bears RB Khalil Herbert

• Underdog ADP: 97.4 (RB30)

Khalil Herbert presumably heads into next season as Chicago's lead RB, and he's made the most out of his opportunities during his two years with the Bears. In the five games that Herbert has played at least 60% of offensive snaps, he's shown well.

• Week 6, 2021: 19-97-1 rushing, 2-15-0 receiving, 89% snaps
• Week 7, 2021: 18-100-0 rushing, 5-33-0 receiving, 77% snaps
• Week 8, 2021: 23-72-0 rushing, 2-(-)4-0 receiving, 84% snaps
• Week 3, 2022: 20-157-2 rushing, 2-12-0 receiving, 60% snaps
• Week 4, 2022: 19-77-0 rushing, 1-24-0 receiving, 77% snaps

No RB averaged more rushing yards over expected per carry than Herbert (+1.44) in 2022, so he checks all the boxes as a pure rusher and could certainly supply some solid RB2 fantasy value with a featured role.

So far, Herbert’s main competition for touches are newly-signed free agents D’Onta Foreman and Travis Homer. Homer profiles as more of a special teams contributor, but Foreman could steal some touches in short-yardage situations.

Overall, Herbert ranked just 34th out of 42 RBs in success rate last season, so Foreman could challenge Herbert for rushing opportunities, and Justin Fields also figures to vulture some goal-line touches given his mobility.

Herbert has a lofty volume ceiling, but his potential to lose out on goal-line work and not see a ton of pass-game opportunities due to Fields’s (warranted) tendency to scramble keeps him out of the top-15 RBs for 2023.

Tier 5: Pass-catching committee RBs (RB20-22)

RB20: Packers RB Aaron Jones

• Underdog ADP: 61.2 (RB17)

Aaron Jones joins Derrick Henry as the two marquee RBs hitting the dreaded age cliff this season. Of course, absolutely nothing about Jones’s performance in 2022 indicated that a serious decline is imminent:

• PFF rushing grade: 90.7 (2nd among 33 qualifying RBs)
• Yards per carry: 5.3 (1st)
• Yards after contact per carry: 3.2 (10th)
• PFF receiving grade: 64.6 (12th)
• Yards per route run: 1.25 (8th)
• Elusive Rating: 71.4 (8th)

Of course, great efficiency doesn’t guarantee great fantasy production without volume as well. Last year, Jones finished as just the RB17 in expected PPR PGG.

In fact, he saw more rush attempts (213 vs. 186) and targets (72 vs. 43) than teammate A.J. Dillon, but that wasn't enough to make Jones a top-10 fantasy RB even though he ranked top-10 in most efficiency metrics above.

It won't help matters that the Packers’ reigning 14th-ranked scoring offense is expected to take at least a decent step back under Jordan Love. 

Fire up Jones as more of a middling RB2 due to his lack of volume and offensive environment, although it wouldn’t be surprising to see the seventh-year veteran continue to make the most out of his opportunities.

RB21: Rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs

• Underdog ADP: 60.3 (RB16)

From Fantasy Life’s dynasty rookie profile on Gibbs:

“We all know what we’re getting with Gibbs as a prospect. His high-end receiving skill set instantly puts him on the mid-range RB2 radar, as his Underdog ADP sits at the 5-6 turn. Plus, his minor deficiencies as a rusher won’t typecast him as a change-of-pace back only.

His dual-threat talent solidifies him as the RB2 for this class in dynasty formats. Few have the same blend of fluidity and burst necessary to carry early-round opportunity cost in rookie drafts. But his landing spot will give us more insight into projected usage, as any concerns about his size will be made clear by whichever veterans he gets paired with to start his career.”

Dec 31, 2022; New Orleans, LA, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide running back Jahmyr Gibbs (1) runs the ball against the Kansas State Wildcats during the second half in the 2022 Sugar Bowl at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Wevers-USA TODAY Sports

Gibbs fits the mold of an explosive pass-catching talent, although an every-down role might be out of reach initially. Landing spot could determine whether Gibbs's rookie season production looks more like Kamara's (RB4 in PPR PPG) or James Cook's (RB51 in PPR PPG).

The consensus No. 2 rookie RB in this class could be bumped out of this tier if he were to land on a team with multiple RBs already heavily involved.

But at the same time, Gibbs could move up in my rankings should a team like the Bengals or Eagles come hollering with promises of a featured role. For now, treat Gibbs as more of a PPR-friendly RB2 as opposed to the world-beater RB1 he could become with an every-down role.

RB22: Lions RB D’Andre Swift

• Underdog ADP: 67.8 (RB18)

D'Andre Swift hasn’t played more than 14 games in a season during his short three-year career. Still just 24 years old, there’s plenty of time for Swift’s gaudy fantasy expectations to become reality, although it’s unclear if the Lions are as interested in seeing that happen as fantasy managers are.

Head coach Dan Campbell had some thoughts on his rising fourth-year RB at this year’s NFL Combine:

Swift is ranked this low because of the expectation that David Montgomery will siphon away a similar amount of touches that Jamaal Williams did last year, and it also wouldn’t be surprising if Craig Reynolds or another backup were to be involved as well. 

Overall, the Lions were the NFL’s fifth-least willing offense to feed their RB 20-plus touches in 2022.

The allure of Swift almost entirely comes down to his ability to demand targets as a receiver out of the backfield. Only five RBs have managed to average more than five targets per game over the past two seasons:

1. Austin Ekeler (6.7 targets per game)
2. Christian McCaffrey (6.2)
3. Leonard Fournette (5.6)
4. Swift (5.5)
5. Alvin Kamara (5.1)

Tier 6: Early-down RBs (RB23-32)

RB23: Lions RB David Montgomery

• Underdog ADP: 84.2 (RB26)

The good news for David Montgomery is that he got paid. His recent three-year, $18 million deal is the sixth-largest contract given out to a free agent RB who signed with a new team since 2016.

The bad news for Montgomery is that the list of highly-paid free agent RBs is filled with one bust after another. 

There's admittingly a bit of survivorship bias here since not many RBs are good enough to earn a big-time second contract in the first place, thus creating a fairly small sample that is stockpiled with older players.

Top-tier fantasy performances get more and more rare for RBs starting at age 27, but luckily, Montgomery will be just 26 years old this season.

Perhaps the larger problem with immediately anointing Montgomery as an upside RB2 in fantasy land is his projected workload. Jamaal Williams might have scored 17 TDs last season, but he only finished as the RB18 in PPR PGG due to having seen just 16 targets all year.

Williams only played more than 50% of offensive snaps once in 2022 despite Swift having been banged up for most of the season. Likewise, Montgomery will likely have to make the most out of his rush attempts due to the presence of Swift, and perhaps Reynolds as well to a lesser extent.

Montgomery had better hope that he will inherit the majority of Williams's vacated league-high 28 rush attempts inside the five-yard line. Only the Jets, Bills, Chiefs, and Dolphins were less willing to give their lead RB 20-plus touches in 2022.

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RB24: Chiefs RB Isiah Pacheco

• Underdog ADP: 75.4 (RB22)

Isiah Pacheco runs like a cheetah with the mindset of an assassin. Seriously, getting in this dude’s way must be absolutely terrifying.

Pacheco turned 207 carries into 1,027 rushing yards and six TDs as a rookie. He also caught 19 of 21 targets for 195 receiving yards, but the Chiefs regularly turned pass-down responsibilities over to Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Jerick McKinnon.

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco (10) runs against Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Darius Slay (2) and safety Marcus Epps (22) in the third quarter of Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

Overall, Pacheco never played on 60% or more of the offense’s snaps. In fact, he had seven games below a 30% snap share compared to just three games over a 50% snap share.

It’s awfully difficult for early-down RBs to boom in full-PPR formats, especially on a generally pass-first offense like the Chiefs. Patrick Mahomes’s league-high 73 pass attempts inside the 10-yard line was a full 20 more than the next-closest QB, Kirk Cousins.

It’s possible that Kansas City could expand Pacheco’s role in 2023, and as of this writing, they have not re-signed McKinnon. Still, the Chiefs offense has been happy to spread the touches around to all their skill position players since they traded away Tyreek Hill to the Dolphins.

Expect Pacheco to continue supplying some bone-crushing highlights on the ground, but his lack of pass-game and goal-line involvement leaves him in the back-end RB2 range for PPR formats.

RB25: Ravens RB J.K. Dobbins

• Underdog ADP: 69.6 (RB20)

It took a while, but by the end of last season, J.K. Dobbins was beginning to resemble the same beast who averaged six yards per carry as a rookie in 2021. Last year, Dobbins ranked fifth in rushing yards over expected per carry behind only Etienne, Pollard, Chubb, and Herbert.

Assuming that Lamar Jackson remains Baltimore's QB, though, having a dual threat QB probably won’t lead to bunches of targets for RBs any time soon. The Ravens also seem committed to committee backfields, as they tied the Dolphins last year for as the offenses most adverse to giving their RBs 20-plus touches in a game.

He racked up only 15, 14, 12, 17, and 17 touches in his five truly healthy contests last season. And yet, Dobbins has the sort of proven high-end efficiency to maximize his touches on the ground.

More focused usage could be on the way under new offensive coordinator Todd Monken as well, so Dobbins could have high weekly upside even if his lack of volume will likely prevent him from finishing as an RB1 on the season.

RB26: Texans RB Dameon Pierce

• Underdog ADP: 68.2 (RB19)

Dameon Pierce was ridiculously good on a per-touch basis last season, as the only RB who forced a higher rate of missed tackles per touch over the past 10 years was Marshawn Lynch back in 2014.

Pierce's elusiveness was a primary factor to him racking up 1,104 total yards and five scores in 13 games as a rookie, and he was was largely the only thing worth smiling about in the entire Texans organization last season.

There's just one problem. Pierce was just the RB21 in PPR PPG in 2022 despite having run about as well anyone could have possibly hoped.

His lack of fantasy production despite strong rushing metrics was due to a combination of being on a mediocre scoring offense as well as having coaches who insisted on also keeping one of Rex Burkhead or Dare Ogunbowale involved on passing downs.

Oct 9, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce (31) runs with the ball defended by Jacksonville Jaguars safety Rayshawn Jenkins (2) in the fourth quarter at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Neither issue is guaranteed to be solved in 2023. The NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick will almost certainly provide an upgrade of sorts under center, but it’s not a given, and it's anyone's guess whether Houston's new coaching staff will feature a fourth-round pick from a previous regime.

The Texans also signed Devin Singletary in free agency to a one-year, $2.75 million deal, and Singletary is a capable all-around RB who could take away more pass-down work from Pierce.

It's possible that new offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik could utilize Pierce more as a receiver, but coming from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree in San Francisco, it's also possible that Slowik could rotate RBs plenty like the 49ers have in recent years.

Pierce’s uncertain role and likely mediocre offensive environment makes it tough to be overly optimistic about his fantasy upside this coming season.

RB27: Panthers RB Miles Sanders

• Underdog ADP: 74.8 (RB21)

In 2022, Miles Sanders rebounded from his scoreless 2021 campaign with 1,347 total yards and 11 TDs. For reference, Dalvin Cook had total 1,468 yards and 10 TDs last season.

The former Eagle has averaged five yards per carry thus far in his career and has shown flashes of big-play ability.

Sanders rushed for 10 or more yards on 15% of his carries in 2021 and on 13% of his carries in 2022. The 25-year-old RB also eclipsed a PFF rush grade of 80.0 for the first time in his career last season and boasted the fifth-best PFF rush grade among 13 free agent RBs with at least 100 carries entering the offseason.

That said, while Sanders has had a 50-catch season, he also joined Derrick Henry as one of the two worst RBs by PFF's receiving grade in 2022.

The biggest question for Sanders heading into 2023 is whether he'll see more passing-down usage in Carolina, or whether he'll again be in a run-heavy role but now on a significantly worse scoring offense. Hopefully reuniting with former RBs coach Duce Staley can lead to more receiving usage for Sanders, like he saw back in 2019.

The rest of the offseason will be telling regarding Sanders' 2023 upside. Confirmation of a more featured role across all three downs could push Sanders into the top-20 RBs in a hurry, but his aforementioned receiving grade could make that more of a pipe dream than anything.

The Panthers are replacing the third-most total touches in the league at RB, so my early guess is that Chuba Hubbard or another player will annoyingly seize a good chunk of this offense's pass-game work rather than Sanders.

RB28: Eagles RB Rashaad Penny

• Underdog ADP: 106.7 (RB34)

Among RBs with at least 300 rushing attempts since 2018, Rashaad Penny ranks third in average yards after contact (3.8) behind only Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. Over that same span, Penny ran for 10 or more yards on 15.0% of his carries, well above the NFL average of 10.5%.

Penny is easily the best RB on the Eagles' depth chart at the moment following Sanders's departure to Carolina. Kenneth Gainwell will likely steal passing-down duties, but Philadelphia’s efficient scoring offense will offer bushels of quality opportunities to score TDs and rack up early-down yardage.

Dec 12, 2021; Houston, Texas, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Rashaad Penny (20) rushes against the Houston Texans in the first quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

In a similar situation at the end of the 2021 season with Seattle, Penny racked up 26.8, 6.4, 19.5, 32.5 and 25.0 PPR points over the final five games of the year even without handling the two-minute offense or long-down-distance work. If you had Penny on your fantasy roster for that run, you likely won a title.

Penny has played 12, 10, three, 10, and five games, respectively, in his five years in the league, so availability isn’t a given. However, the potential for upside is undeniable given Penny's talent profile and the quality of Philadelphia's offense. Penny has legit RB1 upside if things break in his favor.

The Eagles could still add competition via the NFL Draft, but Penny’s ADP will likely climb significantly from RB51 over the next few months on Underdog Fantasy. Consider him a boom-bust RB3 that will continue to ascend to upside RB2 status if Philadelphia doesn't add another impact RB this offseason.

RB29: Saints RB Jamaal Williams

• Underdog ADP: 109.3 (RB35)

Jamaal Williams profiles as the thunder to Kamara's lightning when both are on the field, but Williams also has added upside if/when Kamara were to be suspended.

Fantasy football legal expert/real-life criminal defense attorney Drew Davenport made a helpful Twitter thread explaining the specifics of the case and noted, “Things are dicey for Kamara’s upcoming season and I’m still out in all formats.”

Davenport considers the case complicated enough that a settlement seems unlikely and ultimately predicts that Kamara will be suspended for four to eight games in 2023.

The likelihood that Kamara will be suspended gives Williams an awfully nice theoretical ceiling to go along with his expected early-down role, where he could see double-digit carries per game.

Williams was RB18 in PPR PPG and showed some three-down ability in Detroit last year, but a committee backfield consisting of Swift and Reynolds, and even Justin Jackson at times, limited Williams to just 16 total targets.

Williams is fine. Just realize that he scored 17 TDs in 2022 in large part due to a league-high 28 carries inside the five-yard line. The next-closest player was Jalen Hurts with 20 carries inside the five.

Plus, all but three of Williams's TDs came from inside the five-yard line, so there's some major TD regression on the horizon for him. He could have upside for the duration of Kamara's potential suspension, but don't expect too much from Williams in games where Kamara is available.

RB30: Falcons RB Tyler Allgeier

• Underdog ADP: 88.8 (RB27)

All Tyler Allgeier did as a rookie was post the 10th-best rate of missed tackles forced per touch in the last decade per PFF. The Falcons were hesitant to feature their rookie too much, but Allgeier became a legit bell-cow option by the end of last season, racking up 18, 22, 21, and 24 touches during the final four games.

Atlanta has been a major spender in free agency and figures to once again run the ball at one of the highest rates in the league considering that their current options at QB are Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke *throws up in mouth*.

Jan 1, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Falcons running back Tyler Allgeier (25) warms up before a game against the Arizona Cardinals at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The presence of Cordarrelle Patterson and even Caleb Huntley will likely prevent Allgeier from fully taking over the backfield, though, and there has been plenty of speculation on head coach Arthur Smith potentially drafting Bijan Robinson.

Ultimately, Allgeier has the potential to rise into RB2 territory in a hurry should his 2023 workload match his end-of-season usage. However, the fact that Patterson was playing through injury down the stretch last year has me concerned about just how much the Falcons are willing to feature Allgeier.

It’s generally good practice to not go out of your way to draft a fantasy RB in a primarily early-down role on a likely mediocre offense.

RB31: Commanders RB Brian Robinson

• Underdog ADP: 114.5 (RB37)

Brian Robinson was bad far more than he was good in 2022, averaging fewer than four yards per carry in all but three of his 12 contests. That said, he could drastically improve in 2023 after having more time to heal from, you know, getting shot. Still, here are Robinson's meh metrics as a rookie:

• PFF rushing grade: 81.0 (15th among 33 qualifying RBs)
• Yards per carry: 3.9 (29th)
• Yards after contact per carry: 2.7 (29th)
• PFF receiving grade: 65.2 (10th)
• Yards per route run: 0.72 (24th)
• Elusive Rating: 44.0 (24th)

Further complicating matters was the Commanders’ insistence on not giving Robinson a true featured role. As a rookie, he never played more than 52% of the offense’s snaps in a single game. He even split work with Jonathan Williams in Week 17 despite the fact that both Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic were sidelined.

Robinson is similar to Allgeier in that both sophomore RBs have the potential to rise into RB2 territory if they can see the same type of usage in 2023 that they saw late in 2022. However, the absence of much receiving upside for either as well as being on iffy offenses makes both Allgeier and Robinson middling RB3s for now.

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RB32: Packers RB AJ Dillon

• Underdog ADP: 112.6 (RB36)

It's hard to see A.J. Dillon as more than a TD-dependent RB3 as long as Aaron Jones is healthy enough to do his thing. Still, Dillon deserves to be ranked as a high-end RB3 since he’s an injury to Jones away from bursting into the top-12 RB discussion.

Jones has stayed healthy for the majority of his career, but the Packers have been willing to give Dillon a near every-down role in the four games that Jones played 25 or fewer snaps. In those games, Dillon showed well.

• 2021 Week 11: 11-53-0 rushing, 6-44-0 receiving, 75% snaps
• 2022 Week 13: 18-93-1 rushing, 3-26-0 receiving, 68% snaps
• 2022 Week 16: 11-36-1 rushing, 2-12-0 receiving, 58% snaps
• 2022 Week 17: 12-41-1 rushing, 0-0-0 receiving, 46% snaps

Overall, Jones boasts relatively modest advantages in targets (137 vs. 80) and rush attempts (384 vs. 373) compared to Dillon over the past two seasons, as Green Bay has preferred to rotate them as 1A and 1B options.

Week-to-week scoring upside isn’t expected to be as prominent in the post-Aaron Rodgers era, but Dillon should still see double-digit touches more weeks than not, and he’d immediately become a must-start fantasy option with a potential three-down role if Jones were to miss any time in 2023.

Tier 7: RBs expected to miss time (RB33-34)

RB33: Saints RB Alvin Kamara

• Underdog ADP: 103.9 (RB33)

Any conversation about Kamara’s 2023 fantasy stock comes down to how he recovers from last year’s devastating season-ending knee injury, and by that I mean him repeatedly kicking someone in the face. I wrote the following on Kamara in my offseason injury report roundup:

“Recently released footage sure doesn’t seem to paint Kamara in the brightest light regarding his ongoing assault case. Another video appears to show Kamara confirming/bragging that he connected clean on the victim’s jaw. Not great!

Fantasy football legal expert/real life criminal defense attorney Drew Davenport made a helpful Twitter thread explaining the specifics of the case and notes “Things are dicey for Kamara’s upcoming season and I’m still out in all formats.”

Davenport considers the case complicated enough that a settlement seems unlikely and ultimately predicts Kamara will be suspended for four to eight games of the 2023 season.

2023 concern: 10/10 – Actively expecting him to miss at least a few games.”

Treat Kamara like the RB version of 2022 DeAndre Hopkins. Kamara will give you a lot of goose-eggs during the first two months of the season but is still worth targeting after the first six to seven rounds of drafts due to late-season upside. While Kamara may miss time, he should return to top-15 RB status upon reinstatement.

RB34: Broncos RB Javonte Williams

• Underdog ADP: 78 (RB23)

Any conversation about Javonte Williams’s 2023 fantasy stock comes down to how he recovers from last year’s devastating season-ending knee injury. I wrote the following on Williams in my offseason injury report roundup:

“Tore both the ACL, LCL and PCL in his knee. While Broncos GM George Patton said Williams is “on track” for Week 1, Dr. Mueller notes this is the rising third-year back’s best-case scenario. The ‘worst case’ scenario is a 12 to 14-month recovery with a slow ramp up a la what J.K. Dobbins went through last season.

Beat writer reports indicate that Williams could be out ‘well into’ the 2023 season, and Dr. Porras notes that since 2010 five of 13 qualifying RBs with ACL and PCL tears occurring between August and November still started the next season on the PUP list.

Further hurting matters: One of Matthew Berry’s 23 interesting things he heard at the combine:

‘There is a VERY wide range of possibilities regarding his (Williams) return. There is a chance he is healthy to start the year. There is a chance he misses multiple games. And there is actually a chance he misses all of next year. I was told he is currently a lot more hurt than the team is letting on publicly and that the Broncos are secretly nervous.’

Not great! 2023 concern: 9/10 – Actively expecting them to miss at least a few games.”

While new head coach Sean Payton’s quote on using two RBs was good news for Perine, it’s not great for Williams's outlook heading into 2023. Williams is too damn good to not get the football once he’s healthy enough to suit up, but it could be quite a while before the fantasy gods allow that to happen.

Tier 8: You could imagine… (RB35-38)

RB35: Bills RB James Cook

• Underdog ADP: 93 (RB28)

On the one hand, James Cook was really good as a rookie, averaging more yards per carry (5.7) than any RB not named Breece Hall (5.8). Cook was also the eighth-best RB by PFF receiving grade (71.8) among 55 qualifying RBs.

He might have fumbled away his first career carry, but credit to the rookie for not letting the football hit the ground on his next 126 touches.

On the other hand, the Bills never quite trusted Cook as an early-down answer, as virtually all of his games with double-digit rush attempts came in blowout wins. This is always the concern with RBs who weigh less than 200 lbs., and Buffalo signing Damien Harris this offseason wasn’t a great sign for Cook's projected workload.

The lack of a workhorse role makes it tough to trust Cook, or any other Bills RB, as a true high-end fantasy asset. The Bills join the Ravens, Seahawks, and Eagles as legit awesome NFL offenses, but ones that haven’t been fantasy-friendly for RBs over the years.

Josh Allen is a world-beater at QB, but his tendencies to scramble instead of checking down and to call his own number near the goal line detract from Cook's projected volume and fantasy upside.

I prefer Cook over Harris as the Buffalo RB to target thanks to Cook's explosive pass-catching profile, but the answer to “which Bills RB break out in 2023?” is probably “none".

RB36: Buccaneers RB Rachaad White

• Underdog ADP: 93.9 (RB29)

I agree with the consensus view that Rachaad White looked more explosive than Leonard Fournette in 2022. Still, this wasn’t a Pollard vs. Elliott or Herbert vs. Montgomery kind of situation where the numbers backed up what our eyes were telling us.

White might have been better than Fournette in 2022, but both were inefficient running the football:

• PFF rushing grade: White (65.1, 39th), Fournette (68.7, 36th)
• Yards per carry: White (3.7, 39th), Fournette (3.5, 41st)
• Yards after contact per carry: White (2.3, 41st), Fournette (2.3, 42nd)
• Elusive rating: White (31.3, 40th), Fournette (31.7, 39th)

Tom Brady’s high checkdown rate made life in fantasy land just fine for whichever RB was getting featured from week to week last season, but that’s not exactly something fantasy managers can hang their hat on with either Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask under center in 2023.

White posted a 14-64-0 rushing and 9-45-0 receiving line on an absurd 90% snap rate in his only game without Fournette last season. If that kind of role were guaranteed for this coming season, White would be ranked firmly inside the top-15 RBs.

Unfortunately, the addition of Chase Edmonds in free agency could take away some passing-down work from White, and there's still the possibility that Tampa Bay could add another RB via the NFL Draft as well.

White needs to show more before *best Dennis Green impression* we can crown his ass as a RB worth going out of your way to draft.

RB37: Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell

• Underdog ADP: 129.6 (RB39)

One of Matthew Berry’s 23 interesting things he heard at the combine:

“They really like Kenneth Gainwell in his third down passing role but that's about it. One thing that was interesting was both sources told me the ‘running back by committee’ approach that Philly used the last couple of seasons was more about a lack of confidence in Sanders handling a massive workload, both from a health point of view and concerns on fumbling.

If Philly were to land a ‘star running back’ from the draft (like if they somehow wound up with Bijan Robinson) they would ride that guy in a big way. In other words, a RBBC is not Sirianni's preferred way to deploy running backs but rather what he felt he had to do given who they had on the roster.”

Jan 21, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles running back Kenneth Gainwell (14) against the New York Giants during an NFC divisional round game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

That's hardly the world’s biggest endorsement for Gainwell, although he does continue to profile as the sort of satellite back who could add a ton of value in full-PPR scoring should the right injury break his way.

The newly-signed Penny figures to get a solid crack at seizing most of the early down work that Sanders saw in 2022, but that’s not necessarily a given considering that Penny is only guaranteed $600,000 and could still be cut prior to the season.

Gainwell’s best-case scenario would be handling in the range of eight to 10 carries per game while working as the offense’s clear-cut pass-down back.

Such a role on an efficient Philadelphia offense could yield RB2 production in PPR formats, but another three-RB committee is possible, and that would leave Gainwell as just a mediocre RB4 for fantasy purposes.

RB38: Dolphins RB Jeff Wilson Jr.

• Underdog ADP: 161.1 (RB49)

Miami gave Jeff Wilson Jr. slightly more money (two years, $6 million) than they did Raheem Mostert (two years, $5.6 million), but neither contract is a strong commitment that guarantees much in the way of playing time.

Credit to Wilson for playing as effectively as he did in Miami last season after spending his first eight games of 2022 with the 49ers.

The 27-year-old veteran wound up posting respectable 176-860-5 rushing and 22-185-1 in 16 total games last season, but the question is whether the Dolphins will lean on him as bell-cow back or if head coach Mike McDaniel will continue utilizing more of a committee backfield.

Whoever winds up working as McDaniel’s lead back will certainly carry plenty of fantasy upside, as Miami ranked as the 11th-best scoring offense in 2022. Still, no team was less willing to give their RBs 20-plus touches than the Dolphins last season.

While Wilson did rack up 15-plus combined carries and targets on four separate occasions in Miami last year, much of that was due to Mostert working through knee and thumb injuries.

However, in Wilson's first game with the Dolphins in Week 9, which was also the only game that featured a fully-healthy Mostert, Wilson had a slight edge in snap share at 49% compared to 47% for Mostert, though neither RB managed to reach double-digit carries in that game.

Ultimately though, Miami's offense figures to primarily go through the passing game with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

But at RB, Wilson deserves a slight edge in fantasy rankings thanks to his youth, slightly higher contract, and more playing time in 2022 even accounting for Mostert's injuries. That said, it'll be tough to rank either Miami RB as a top-30 fantasy option without more information on McDaniel's plans for the backfield in 2023.

Tier 9: Wild cards (RB39-45)

RB39: Rookie RB Zach Charbonnet

• Underdog ADP: 98.3 (RB31)

RB40: Free agent RB Kareem Hunt

• Underdog ADP: 146.9 (RB46)

RB41: Rookie RB Devon Achane

• Underdog ADP: 148.9 (RB47)

RB42: Rookie RB Sean Tucker

• Underdog ADP: 168 (RB51)

RB43: Rookie RB Tyjae Spears

• Underdog ADP: 163.6 (RB50)

RB44: Rookie RB Roschon Johnson

• Underdog ADP: 171.1 (RB52)

RB45: Rookie RB Tank Bigsby

• Underdog ADP: 187.3 (RB56)

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Tier 10: RBs an injury away from being someone you can trust (RB46-57)

RB46: Commander RB Antonio Gibson

• Underdog ADP: 141.8 (RB44)

RB47: 49ers RB Elijah Mitchell

• Underdog ADP: 136.8 (RB42)

RB48: Vikings RB Alexander Mattison

• Underdog ADP: 122.2 (RB38)

RB49: Texans RB Devin Singletary

• Underdog ADP: 173.6 (RB53)

RB50: Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert

• Underdog ADP: 153.6 (RB48)

RB51: Bears RB D’Onta Foreman

• Underdog ADP: 137.7 (RB43)

RB52: Bills RB Damien Harris

• Underdog ADP: 131 (RB40)

RB53: Patriots RB James Robinson

• Underdog ADP: 206 (RB61)

RB54: Broncos RB Samaje Perine

• Underdog ADP: 134.5 (RB41)

RB55: Falcons RB Cordarrelle Patterson

• Underdog ADP: 187.3 (RB57)

RB56: Steelers RB Jaylen Warren

• Underdog ADP: 181.7 (RB55)

RB57: Giants RB Matt Breida

• Underdog ADP: 239.9 (RB94)

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Tier 11: Unknowns for now, but ya never know! (RB58-65)

RB58: Free agent RB Jerick McKinnon

• Underdog ADP: 207.8 (RB62)

RB59: Free agent RB Leonard Fournette

• Underdog ADP: 108.8 (RB54)

RB60: Free agent RB Ezekiel Elliott

• Underdog ADP: 146.2 (RB45)

RB61: Rookie RB Kendre Miller

• Underdog ADP: 189.5 (RB58)

RB62: Rookie RB Zach Evans

• Underdog ADP: 201.7 (RB59)

RB63: Rookie RB Chase Brown

• Underdog ADP: 213.3 (RB64)

RB64: Rookie RB Israel Abanikanda

• Underdog ADP: 220.9 (RB66)

RB65: Rookie RB DeWayne McBride

• Underdog ADP: 233.4 (RB72)

Tier 12: Clear backups without clear handcuff upside (RB66-77)

RB66: Titans RB Dontrell Hilliard

• Underdog ADP: N/A

RB67: Browns RB Jerome Ford

• Underdog ADP: 218.1 (RB65)

RB68: Jets RB Michael Carter

• Underdog ADP: 202.8 (RB60)

RB69: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard

• Underdog ADP: 211 (RB63)

RB70: Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

• Underdog ADP: 222.7 (RB67)

RB71: Chargers RB Joshua Kelley

• Underdog ADP: 231.2 (RB71)

RB72: Ravens RB Gus Edwards

• Underdog ADP: 225.5 (RB68)

RB73: Raiders RB Zamir White

• Underdog ADP: 235.1 (RB74)

RB74: Buccaneers RB Chase Edmonds

• Underdog ADP: 238 (RB78)

RB75: Rams RB Kyren Williams

• Underdog ADP: 238.4 (RB80)

RB76: Eagles RB Boston Scott

• Underdog ADP: 238.3 (RB79)

RB77: Cowboys RB Malik Davis

• Underdog ADP: 237.9 (RB77)

Tier 13: At least they haven’t sucked in the NFL before (RB78-91)

RB78: Patriots RB Pierre Strong Jr.

• Underdog ADP: 234.2 (RB73)

RB79: Chargers RB Isaiah Spiller

• Underdog ADP: 237.9 (RB76)

RB80: Rookie RB Deuce Vaughn

• Underdog ADP: 238.9 (RB82)

RB81: Rookie RB Evan Hull

• Underdog ADP: 237.6 (RB75)

RB82: Jaguars RB D’Ernest Johnson

• Underdog ADP: 229 (RB69)

RB83: Titans RB Hassan Haskins

• Underdog ADP: 238.8 (RB81)

RB84: Rookie RB Kenny McIntosh

• Underdog ADP: 239.7 (RB89)

RB85: Rookie RB Ty Chandler

• Underdog ADP: 239.1 (RB83)

RB86: Jets RB Zonovan Knight

• Underdog ADP: 239.6 (RB88)

RB87: Bengals RB/international movie star Chris Evans

• Underdog ADP: 239.5 (RB87)

RB88: Bills RB Nyheim Hines

• Underdog ADP: 239.4 (RB84)

RB89: Rookie RB Keaton Mitchell

• Underdog ADP: 239.7 (RB91)

RB90: Rookie RB Eric Gray

• Underdog ADP: 239.4 (RB84)

RB91: Rookie RB Mohamed Ibrahim

• Underdog ADP: 240 (RB98)

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Tier 14: Meh (RB92-100)

RB92: Cardinals RB Keaontay Ingram

• Underdog ADP: 239.9 (RB97)

RB93: Colts RB Deon Jackson

• Underdog ADP: 239.9 (RB96)

RB94: Jaguars RB JaMycal Hasty

• Underdog ADP: 239.5 (RB86)

RB95: Broncos RB Latavius Murray

• Underdog ADP: 239.7 (RB89)

RB96: Bengals RB Trayveon Williams

• Underdog ADP: N/A

RB97: Seahawks RB DeeJay Dallas

• Underdog ADP: 240 (RB111)

RB98: Colts RB Zack Moss

• Underdog ADP: 240 (RB104)

RB99: Raiders RB Ameer Abdullah

• Underdog ADP: 240 (RB101)

RB100: Cowboys RB Ronald Jones

• Underdog ADP: 229.9 (RB70)