2023 Fantasy Football Strategy. Late-Round QBs to Target.
The late-round QB strategy is dead. Or is it?
We’ve almost come full circle from JJ Zachariason’s iconic e-book and Rich Hribar preaching about the Konami Code. ADPs for the elite QBs are back in the second round of drafts in 2023 with mobile QBs being prioritized.
Now, JJ and Rich are like Thanos resting after the Snap, as their ideologies on QBs have reshaped the industry. Our QB options appear thinner than ever as we come out of the middle rounds, but after a quick look back, I’ve found a few late-round QBs worth targeting for the 2023 season.
Quick Notes on Process
You already know what makes a good fantasy QB: lots of passing yards and TDs. A good fantasy QB typically gets both. If not, getting his team most of the way there (either by his arm or legs) works too. And using last year's data from the Best Ball Mania tournament on Underdog Fantasy, the results reinforce what QB archetype(s) should be targeted in fantasy.
At first glance, you’ll see a few names and think it’s all about rushing. And you’re not wrong, because rushing production is a big boost for QBs in fantasy. But let’s dig a little deeper.
Justin Fields (15.8%) and Daniel Jones (9.8%) were both top-five QBs in scramble rate last season. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence lit up the sky as the Jaguars were 12th in pass rate over expectation (PROE). But more importantly, Lawrence had the 11th-most rushing yards of any QB. He actually produced more yards (219) than Lamar Jackson on scrambles, or unscripted carries (206). So with three of last year’s late-round QBs producing in a similar manner, we have a profile: scramblers.
That's not to say that we should forget about Jared Goff ranking third in EPA per play with Amon-Ra St. Brown or Justin Jefferson doing whatever the hell he wanted after Kirk Cousins threw him the ball. Passing efficiency is still important, but maintaining offensive efficiency has underrated value heading into 2023.
When a play breaks down, a QB has a few options, most of which aren’t great. Even throwing the ball away loses a shot at gaining a first down or extra yardage at the very least. Scrambling for a few yards here and there on plays can make a big impact over the course of a season.
There were 37 QBs last year with 10 or more scrambles, and they collectively averaged 0.21 EPA per attempt on the ground. To put that into perspective, Patrick Mahomes averaged 0.18 EPA per pass attempt in 2022, so QB scrambles can add a lot of value.
Late-round QBs with solid pass-catching corps or on an offense predicated on the pass give us a viable floor, but if drafting a QB early, he should still have the ability to scramble even if he commands an efficient passing offense.
Late-Round QBs to Target
Geno Smith
- ADP: QB15, 115.4 overall
On the one hand, Geno Smith redefined his career in 2023. In fact, he led the league in completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) during the regular season. And based on their current ADPs in 2023, we love Seattle’s offense as a whole with four Seahawks skill position players being selected in the top-100 overall picks. Only the Chiefs and Eagles have more.
On the other hand, folks may think last season was a fluke. Plus, we “know” how head coach Pete Carroll likes to operate with his mantra that a strong running game with a stout defense is the recipe for success. And Carroll does have a penchant for taking the controller away from his offensive coordinator when the offense falters.
After the team went 9-7 in 2017, the Seahawks ranked 32nd and 30th in PROE and red-zone PROE. A similar trend happened after Russell Wilson’s injury-riddled 2020 season.
But we didn’t see Seattle’s season end on a depressing note in 2022. If anything, Smith not only operated the offense as designed but also brought an element back to the Seahawks’ offense that we hadn’t seen in some time.
Whether due to age or injury, Wilson couldn’t move like he did a half-decade ago. If routes weren’t open, his acrobatic skills couldn’t save him. But Smith's unscripted runs kept Seattle in games last year, and his ability to scramble should again be part of his appeal in fantasy for the coming season.
Seattle has already told us with their wallet what parts of the offense they want to develop. They added the consensus WR1 and a pass-catching RB with early-round capital, both of which point to Smith leading the way through the air. And with his tendency to scramble, he can slide into the top-10 fantasy QB discussion again this year despite having an ADP of QB15.
Jordan Love
- ADP: QB22, 164.9 overall
We don’t know what the Packers’ offense will look like this season. Jordan Love has had just one start in two seasons, and most of Green Bay’s crew went with Aaron Rodgers to New Jersey, so 2023 will be a fresh start for the Packers.
But we do have some idea of what Love is as a QB, at least as it relates to fantasy. His lone start came in 2021 against the Chiefs; you know, the game where his mother sat in the nosebleed seats. Love had 34 pass attempts in a narrow loss to Kansas City.
But more importantly, he showed his ability to scramble in that close loss to the Chiefs. Take a look below at his scramble rate compared to Rodgers that season.
Of course, comparing a then-rookie’s athletic ability to a then-38-year-QB’s seems unfair. Regardless, we can assume that Love will use his legs to keep the offense moving more than Rodgers did, and coincidentally, head coach Matt LaFleur may have already been planning for that eventual transition.
Again, it’s a single game in the middle of the season, so it’s a small sample size. However, that being said, the Packers’ PROE dropped to -3.0% for that contest.
It makes sense, right? You’d want to lean on the running game a bit more in a rookie QB's first start, and when Rodgers returned, Green Bay's offense returned to a +4% PROE for the 2021 regular season.
But guess what their PROE was last year during what we all assumed was Rodgers’ final season with the Pack? It was -3.0%.
The offense hit on Christian Watson and added Jayden Reed, who has an inside track on a starting spot as a rookie. Green Bay was just behind the league average in PROE last season, ranking 18th. A similar mark would keep Love’s fantasy hopes alive with his scrambling ability giving him a shot at weekly top-12 QB upside.
Kenny Pickett
- ADP: QB24, 172.6 overall
I hate to say this as a Bengals fan, but I’m in on Pickett. To be clear, I’m in on him as a fantasy QB, not necessarily a real-life NFL QB.
Either way, we need to add some context to his rookie season. If you look at Pittsburgh’s PROE over Pickett’s 11 full games in 2022, it was -3.4%. That’s lower than the regular-season league average (-2.5%) and would’ve ranked 18th.
But the team had to put Pickett back into the concussion protocol after Week 14. When he returned to the starting lineup, the Steelers were well out of playoff contention, and the offense made a noticeable shift:
- Before Week 14: -0.3% PROE (10th)
- Weeks 16-18: -11.8% (30th)
This discrepancy is why I'm not buying the idea that Pittsburgh will lean heavily on their RBs in 2023. Pickett had the 14th-best passing grade last year per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Plus, before his second stint in the concussion protocol, the Steelers’ red-zone PROE (0.9%) was 11th-highest in the league, not to mention the fact that Pickett’s efficiency continued to climb as the season progressed.
The Steelers were passing more while in scoring position, and Pickett can make plays, so all we need this coming season is some rushing upside. Luckily, Pickett had a 7.1% scramble rate across his healthy games, and he had only had one game before Week 14 without an unplanned rushing attempt.
So if we like all the pieces to Pittsburgh’s offense, we should target their QB, especially when he's usually available outside the top 150 overall picks in drafts.
You can take a few shots on these late-round QBs on Underdog Fantasy, where you can also get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up with promo code LIFE! Simply sign up below to start drafting today!
