2023 Team Preview: Chicago Bears
Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Chicago Bears, looking at key questions like:
- Does Justin Fields have a super-saiyan-level fantasy ceiling?
- Which RB will rise to the top of this muddled backfield?
- Will D.J. Moore finally put up the sort of high-end numbers his talent suggests he can achieve?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Bears will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.
That said, head coach Matt Eberflus, offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and defensive coordinator Alan Wiliams are all back for their second season running the Bears.
The million-dollar question in fantasy land: Will this group throw the ball at even something close to an average rate moving forward?
The presence of a longtime defensive-minded coach in Eberflus isn’t ideal, although Getsy certainly knows a thing or two about airing things out, considering he served as Aaron Rodgers’ passing game coordinator and QB coach during his back-to-back MVP campaigns.
It’d make sense if an improved passing environment and year-three leap from Fields leads to Chicago throwing the ball more than they did in 2022; just realize they have a long way to go before even approaching league-average marks.
Additionally, the Bears have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left Chicago in some way, shape, or form this offseason:
- QB: 2022 backups Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle are now with the Bengals and Jets, respectively, which led to the organization signing XFL “Hall of Famer”/former Panthers signal-caller P.J. Walker (two-year, $4 million) to work behind Justin Fields.
- RB: Four-year starter David Montgomery took his talents to the Lions, while backup and ex-Titans third-round pick Darrynton Evans remains an unrestricted free agent. The Bears added ex-Texans/Titans/Panthers bell-cow RB D’Onta Foreman (one-year, $3 M) as well as former Seahawks primary special teamer Travis Homer (two-year, $4M).
- WR: Key contributors from last season’s (sad) WR room are gone in Byron Pringle and N’Keal Harry. The upgrade comes in the form of longtime Panthers' No. 1 WR D.J. Moore, who the Bears received as part of the trade featuring the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick.
- TE: Backup options Ryan Griffin and Trevon Wesco are gone in favor of former Packers TE Robert Tonyan (one-year, $2.65 million), whose deal includes just $1.25M in guaranteed money.
The Bears spent their four top-64 picks improving PFF’s reigning 14th-ranked offensive line and 32nd-ranked scoring defense. Not a bad idea!
The history of draft capital tells us not to expect too much year-one production from day-three selections like Texas RB Roschon Johnson (4.115) or Cincinnati WR Tyler Scott (4.133). Although the Bears do offer softer skill-position depth charts than most teams.
QBs
- Justin Fields (Ian’s QB5)
- P.J. Walker (QB46)
Fields didn’t register a single finish inside the position’s top 20 fantasy performers during the first four weeks of both 2021 and 2022.
The former season, unfortunately, included enough bad injury luck to sideline Fields for five of the final seven games of the season, although he did flash with four top-10 fantasy finishes in his final five starts.
All the Bears’ QB1 did in the latter campaign was work as one of the most fantasy-friendly players at the position, ripping off 10 top-12 finishes in his final 11 games of 2022. This stretch included five finishes inside the position’s top-five signal-callers.
Already the NFL’s all-time record holder for most career 50-plus yard touchdown runs in the Super Bowl era (!), Fields combines elite top-end speed with the sort of tackle-breaking moves that can make Chris Berman go from six to midnight in a hurry.
The 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 11 overall pick finished with the second-most rushing yards (1,143) at the position in NFL history behind only 2019 Lamar Jackson (1,206).
There has truly only been a handful of seasons ever featuring a QB putting up this sort of rushing production. The following leaderboard denotes the most fantasy points per game from purely rushing production in a single season by a QB in NFL history:
- 2019 Lamar Jackson (10.84)
- 2022 Justin Fields (10.82)
- 1972 Bobby Douglass (10.34)
- 2022 Jalen Hurts (10.27)
- 2010 Mike Vick (10.1)
Fields is an absolutely incredible rushing threat. Cool? Cool. But, of course, the passing part of the equation needs some work.
Don’t get it twisted: Fields can sling the rock and has put more than a few examples of this on tape at the NFL level.
That said, averaging 152.3 passing yards per game in 27 career contests is not great. In fact, it’s the 13th-lowest mark among 91 QBs to start at least 16 games between 2010 and 2022. Fellow dual-threat talents like Tyrod Taylor, Tim Tebow and Taysom Hill are below Fields and still made it work more times than not in fantasy land, but that’s not a great group to be in.
The hope is that the supporting cast around Fields improves in a major way. PFF’s reigning 32nd-ranked offense in team receiving grade unironically entered the offseason with Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool and Equanmieous St. Brown as its top-three WRs. But D.J. Moore provides a big-time upgrade.
Of course, even with Moore, it’s still tough to call this group an above-average unit relative to the rest of the league.
Oct 2, 2022; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus watches quarterback Justin Fields (1) warm up before the game against the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
Ultimately, 13 of 14 QBs with 125-plus carries in a season posted top-12 fantasy numbers on a per-game basis. That last part (per-game basis) is important. I didn’t just reward the overall finishes for those lucky enough to stay healthy; high-usage rushers at QB join high-volume receiving RBs as the closest things that fantasy football has to cheat codes.
The only QBs I would draft above Fields this season either also have his sort of rushing upside (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson) or are possibly the greatest QB we have ever seen (Patrick Mahomes).
I wouldn’t call someone too crazy for throwing Joe Burrow in front of Fields. However, it’s awfully tough to move the rising third-year QB outside the position’s top-five fantasy options, thanks to his ridiculous rushing production on a team that has fully committed to him as the guy for at least 2023.
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RBs
- Khalil Herbert (Ian’s RB38)
- Roschon Johnson (RB51)
- D’Onta Foreman (RB56)
Herbert was nothing short of fantastic with his opportunities in 2022, posting top-five numbers in yards per carry (5.7) and yards after contact per carry (3.67), along with a top-10 rate in missed tackles forced per rush attempt (0.22).
No RB averaged an explosive run (10-plus yards) more frequently than Herbert (0.17 per carry). This helped him average more rushing yards above expectation than any other RB in 2022 (Next-Gen Stats).
He has made the most out of his opportunities during his two years with the Bears, especially in five career games playing at least 60% of the offense's snaps:
- Week 6, 2021: 19-97-1 rushing, 2-15-0 receiving, 89% snaps
- Week 7, 2021: 18-100-0 rushing, 5-33-0 receiving, 77%
- Week 8, 2021: 23-72-0 rushing, 2-(-)4-0 receiving, 84%
- Week 3, 2022: 20-157-2 rushing, 2-12-0 receiving, 60%
- Week 4, 2022: 19-77-0 rushing, 1-24-0 receiving, 77%
The two key problems for Herbert:
- Life with a dual-threat QB like Fields is historically not great for RBs, and
- He now faces competition from a pair of early-down bruisers who seem capable of working inside this committee.
There are only so many true workhorse RBs left in today’s NFL – it’s not a death blow to a player’s stock if they have to share the backfield to some extent. Still, even a small committee can be problematic inside a low-scoring offense like the Bears that simply didn’t afford much fantasy-friendly opportunity in 2022.
- QB: 17.4 expected fantasy points per game (15th)
- RB: 18.2 (28th)
- WR: 26.3 (28th)
- TE: 9.5 (25th)
Overall, the Bears joined the Panthers as the only two offenses that failed to afford fantasy-friendly opportunities inside the league’s top-24 teams at RB, WR and TE alike in 2022.
Offensive coordinator Luke Getsy’s offseason comments certainly don’t instill a lot of confidence that he’ll simply lean on Herbert as the featured back in 2023.
One of just four teams that didn’t target their RBs at least 60 times last season, Chicago profiles as one of the league’s least fantasy-friendly offenses for the position ahead of 2023.
Herbert deserves the nod as the top projected back, while Foreman and Johnson are fine enough late-round darts on rosters deploying a zero-RB-esque strategy.
Still, the simple answer to which Bears RB to rely on next season might very well be: None.
WRs
- D.J. Moore (Ian’s WR26)
- Darnell Mooney (WR51)
- Chase Claypool (WR80)
- Dante Pettis (WR119)
- Equanimeous St. Brown (WR120)
- Velus Jones (WR121)
There probably isn’t a single WR in the NFL that has suffered more from porous QB performance than Moore over the past half-decade.
Maybe Terry McLaurin, but I still lean Moore. It’s a minor miracle that Moore has managed to continue supplying WR3 fantasy goodness along the way:
- 2018: 9.8 PPR points per game (PPR WR54 per game)
- 2019: 15.4 (WR17)
- 2020: 14.1 (WR28)
- 2021: 14 (WR27)
- 2022: 11.7 (WR35)
Give the Bears’ franchise QB credit for making a handful or two of truly awesome throws in 2022, but Fields ranked outside the NFL’s top-20 signal-callers in accuracy rating (25th), deep ball completion rate (22nd), pressured completion rate (24th) and clean pocket completion rate (27th).
It’s (sadly) not a guarantee that Fields provides the best QB play of Moore’s football career.
The NFL’s reigning second-most run-heavy offense in non-garbage time pass-play rate, only the Titans, Panthers, Ravens and Falcons offered fewer expected PPR points per game to their WRs than the Bears in 2022.
Even an improvement in passing efficiency (not a given) might not be enough to make up for reduced volume inside of a passing game that just threw for a total of 2,219 yards last season – the lowest mark since the 2011 Blaine Gabbert-led Jaguars.
Mar 15, 2023; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears players (from left) Chase Claypool, Justin Fields, Darnell Mooney and DJ Moore take selfies in the stands during the second half of the game between the Chicago Bulls and the Sacramento Kings at the United Center. Mandatory Credit: Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports
I’d rather draft guys like Mike Williams and Jerry Jeudy at similar ADPs, thanks to their superior situations under center (at least in terms of volume). Consequently, Moore has only been a target of mine in best ball land when picking at the turn, and I’m able to build a stack with Fields in two quick clicks.
It’s tough to be overly optimistic about the rest of this crew as well:
- Mooney: Has worked as the WR29 and, most recently, WR59 in PPR points per game over the past two seasons. Three of Mooney's four top-12 finishes in the former campaign occurred without Fields under center for the entire game.
- Claypool: The 32nd overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, Claypool didn’t even play 75% of the offense’s snaps once during his seven games with the Bears. It’s tough to say anything nice about his 14-140-0 production, considering his coaches were openly pointing out that he didn’t know the offense well enough to be on the field.
- Pettis: Finished as the Bears’ second-highest-scoring fantasy WR in 2022. His overall rank at the position compared to the rest of the NFL: WR99.
- St. Brown: Started 16 games last year and couldn’t manage more than a 21-323-1 receiving line. That time he burnt Jaire Alexander was cool, though.
- Jones: Unironically turned 26 earlier in May. Credit to Jones for averaging a robust 13.1 yards per touch on his 16 carries and receptions; just realize he once again profiles as more of a returner/gadget than an actual offensive piece.
Ultimately, expecting even *one* consistently fantasy-relevant WR to emerge from what again looks like one of the league’s most run-heavy offenses might be wishful thinking. Don’t expect Mooney, Claypool or any other complementary option to be anything more than a boom or (mostly) bust WR5 option in 2023.
TEs
- Cole Kmet (Ian’s TE15)
- Robert Tonyan (TE50)
A whopping five of Kmet’s seven TDs occurred in a three-week stretch last season; fantasy managers weren’t able to consistently fire him up as a top-12 option with much confidence.
That said: Kmet was THE man at TE in Chicago all season. He played over 80% of the snaps in every game and surpassed the 90% mark on all but three occasions.
It’s hard (read: impossible) to score fantasy points when not on the field, and the Bears have proven to be willing to give Kmet more snaps than just about any other player at the position.
Just 24 years old, TEs almost always take a few years to get grooving. Kmet didn’t put forward the best marks in PFF Receiving grade (66.1, No. 26), yards per route run (1.27, No. 25) or targets per route run (16.1%, No. 32), but 1.) The man is still just 24 years old, and 2.) This is why he’s going as late as he is in drafts.
Dec 24, 2022; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) passes to tight end Cole Kmet (85) in the third quarter against the Buffalo Bills at Soldier Field. Buffalo defeated Chicago 35-13. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports
Contrary to popular belief, the addition of Tonyan sure doesn’t look to be active competition for Kmet. The ex-Packers TE signed a small one-year, $2.65 million deal with just $1.25 million guaranteed.
I’m not going out of my way to land Kmet in fantasy land this season due to the aforementioned pass-game volume concerns impacting everyone involved, but he’s tough to keep out of the position’s top-15 options thanks to his expected every-down role in an offensive scoring environment tentatively expected to improve with a better overall supporting cast and potential year-three leap from Fields.
2023 Win Total: 7.5 (-120 juice on the over)
Year one of the Matt Eberflus era didn’t produce much goodness in terms of wins and losses, but the 3-14 Bears did carry an expected win-loss record of 5.2-11.8. Simply put, this team was more competitive than their final record indicated last season.
Going 1-7 in games decided by eight or fewer points again seems unlikely. The league’s reigning 32nd-ranked defense in EPA allowed per play (literally) can’t get any worse. In all seriousness, they should be better with three additions inside the draft’s top-64 picks on top of their big-money front-seven free-agency signings.
And yet, I’m taking under 7.5 wins by a hair, not quite trusting the passing attack to fully elevate a rising year-two Bears team inside an Aaron Rodgers-less division for the first time in 18 years. This feels like a group that is a year away from being a year away from truly contending.
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