2023 Team Preview: Los Angeles Chargers

Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.

What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Los Angeles Chargers, looking at key questions like:

1. Can new OC Kellen Moore help Justin Herbert ascend to ever-higher heights?
2. Will Austin Ekeler rip off his third consecutive overall RB1 finish?
3. How many high-end fantasy pass-catchers will emerge from this loaded aerial attack?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Chargers will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.

Notable offseason moves

From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.

Brandon Staley is back for his third season as Chargers head coach, but offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi has been replaced in favor of longtime Cowboys OC Kellen Moore.

This is pretty great news in fantasy land: Moore has a history of featuring up-tempo offenses that run enough plays to make up for any sort of run-first tendencies.

• 2022: -6% pass rate over expected (No. 25), 29 seconds per play (No. 2)
• 2021: +1.2% (No. 9), 28.38 (No. 1)
• 2020: -1.6% (No. 20), 27.48 (No. 2)
• 2019: -2.4% (No. 23), 28.26 (No. 1)

There’s also reason to believe Justin Herbert’s annoyingly low average target depth (aDOT) will rise under Moore considering Dak Prescott regularly posted far deeper marks in the metric over the last four years.

Additionally, the Chargers have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Los Angeles in some way, shape, or form this offseason:

• QB: Backup/real-life Alex Moran Chase Daniel remains an unrestricted free agent, meaning Easton Stick is currently the next man up should anything happen to Herbert.
• RB: None.
• WR: Backup WR DeAndre Carter signed with the Raiders in free agency, while Michael Bandy remains an exclusive rights free agent.
• TE: Backup TE Richard Rodgers remains an unrestricted free agent.

The Chargers added a trio of fantasy-relevant options in the draft, selecting TCU WR Quentin Johnston (1.21), TCU WR Derius Davis (4.125), and TCU QB Max Duggan (7.239). Expect Johnston to see far more action in year one and beyond if the history of draft capital has taught us anything.

QB: Justin Herbert (Ian’s QB7), Easton Stick (QB56)

Herbert is capable of making throws that probably only a handful of other humans can even think about attempting.

Of course, style points don’t count for extra in fantasy football, and there wasn’t enough real-life production for Herbert in 2022 to build on his impressive first two years in the league.

• 2022: 16.6 fantasy points per game (QB14)
• 2021: 22.4 (QB2)
• 2020: 22.2 (QB7)

The primary culprit: rushing production. 

Herbert’s first two seasons featured stellar 55-234-5 and 63-302-3 rushing lines, but he (literally) limped to 54-147-0 production in 2022 thanks in large part to playing with fractured ribs from Week 2 through the rest of the season. Note that Herbert also had offseason surgery to repair a torn shoulder labrum.

Herbert was a mere two fantasy points per game away from finishing as the position’s seventh-most-productive fantasy option in 2022; it’d make sense if better health helps him again supply a valuable rushing floor.

There’s also potential for his lowly 3.6% TD rate to rebound closer to 2020 (5.2%) or 2021 (5.7%) levels both due to natural regression and life with a healthier supporting cast.

It’d be nice if new OC Kellen Moore utilizes Herbert’s b-e-a-utiful deep ball a bit more often; just realize it was hard for former OC Joe Lombardi to dial up one deep shot after another due to all the injuries going on in the offense.

Ultimately, Herbert has statistical regression, better health, and improved scheme all working in his favor ahead of 2022. He fully deserves his current QB7 (pick 54.6) ADP and is in a tier alongside fellow plus-pocket passers Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence. I’ve been happy to target Herbert in this range, especially when able to land one of his fellow affordably priced WRs.

Fifth all-time in fantasy points per game at the position (!), Herbert has a true breakout season in his potential range of outcomes ahead of 2023. I LOVE his +750 odds to lead the league in passing yards.

RB: Austin Ekeler (Ian’s RB2), Joshua Kelley (RB74), Isaiah Spiller (RB81)

No team has provided more expected PPR points per game to its backfield than the Chargers over the past three seasons. 

This is undoubtedly thanks to Ekeler’s borderline erotic receiving ability, but the offense’s willingness to feed him a full 19 more targets than the next-closest RB (Christian McCaffrey - 108) and 39 more than third place (Rhamondre Stevenson - 88) in 2022 demonstrates just how ridiculously fantasy-friendly this role really is.

Nobody has scored more touchdowns than Ekeler (38) over the past two seasons. It’s truly ridiculous how involved he’s been inside the 10-yard line during this span.

1. Joe Mixon (73 combined carries and targets inside the 10-yard line since 2021)
2. Ekeler (65)
3. Jonathan Taylor (59)
4. Jamaal Williams (56)
5. Leonard Fournette (55)

Overall, Ekeler is responsible for the fifth- and sixth-most productive seasons in PPR points per game at the position since 2020. His relatively reduced rushing ceiling is more than made up for by the most fantasy-friendly pass-game floor that the position has to offer.

The only real concern for Ekeler is the potential for him to fall back in the passing game pecking order with a fully healthy supporting cast and new scheme. Even then, the Chargers’ stud RB has worked as the offense’s clear No. 2 pass-game option (per Dwain McFarland). 

The following target shares denote the rates with each of Keenan Allen, Ekeler, and Mike Williams on the field with Herbert since 2020:

• Allen: 28% target share, 25% targets per route run
• Ekeler: 23%, 24%
• Williams: 20%, 18%

Ultimately, the complete lack of viable options elsewhere in this backfield still projects Ekeler as the clear-cut touch leader and favorite to assume fantasy-friendly pass-down and goal-line duties per usual even if Allen and Williams stay a bit healthier than they have in past years (hardly a guarantee).

Don’t overthink this one: Ekeler deserves to be alongside CMC as the two most fantasy-friendly RBs in the game. His current status as the ninth overall player off the board seems off; I’ve consistently taken the reigning overall fantasy RB1 ahead of WRs with higher ADP like Stefon Diggs and A.J. Brown.

You can prioritize Ekeler as a Round 1 target on Underdog Fantasy and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 for doing so by signing up below!

Dec 26, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back Austin Ekeler (30) celebrates his second touchdown of the game in the second half against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Chargers RBs not named Ekeler accounted for 164 touches in 2022; there’s a decent amount of meat on the bone in this ascending offense for more than one fantasy-viable RB—just like there was back in 2019 when both Ekeler (RB6 in PPR points per game) and Melvin Gordon (RB14) both managed to record top-15 production throughout the season.

Still, nothing about the current crop of backups indicates that one will easily work ahead of the rest. Each of Kelley, Spiller, Larry Rountree, and Sony Michel were involved for different stretches of the season; they combined for just *one* fantasy finish inside the position's top-24 backs throughout the season.

I’d give Kelley the slight nod as the preferred last-round dart in fantasy land, but even then it wouldn’t be surprising if an injury to Ekeler led to an evenly-split committee and/or newfound free-agent veteran addition. 

I haven’t made a habit of attacking this underwhelming group of backups in early summer drafts, but that could change with more clarity surrounding exactly who is expected to work as the clear-cut No. 2 option.

WR: Keenan Allen (Ian’s WR19), Mike Williams (WR24), Quentin Johnston (WR42), Joshua Palmer (WR86)

Allen and Williams have played 33 games together with Herbert also under center. Their per-game production in these contests is as follows:

• Williams: 6.9 targets, 4.2 receptions-61.9 yards-0.4 TD, 12.8 PPR points
• Allen: 10.2 targets, 7.2 receptions-76.1 yards-0.4 TD, 17.4 PPR points

Allen’s sterling per-game production in 2022 when healthy enough to suit up was a nice reminder of just how productive he’s capable of being in this offense.

Overall, only Justin Jefferson and Davante Adams scored more PPR points than Allen after he returned from injury in Week 11 last season—Ja’Marr Chase is the only additional WR added to the “better than Allen” list if you want to go by PPR points per game during the span. Not bad!

Meanwhile, Williams has earned a bit of a boom-or-bust label over the years. His tendency to crash to the ground like a bag of rocks in contested-catch situations has occasionally led to an early exit, but the six-year veteran has still managed to play in 85 of a potential 92 games since entering the league in 2017.

Investing in either of Herbert’s top-two pass-game options should be good for fantasy business if new OC Kellen Moore can replicate some of his rather awesome (regular season) success.

The case for Williams is that things have gotten a bit closer over the last two years in terms of both per-game opportunity (9.6 targets vs. 7.7) and fantasy production (16.5 PPR points vs. 14.8). Allen turns 31 in April; there have only been 14 instances of a 30-plus-year-old WR turning in top-12 fantasy production over the past decade.

Ultimately, I’m in on both Allen (WR19, pick 36.9 ADP) and Williams (WR25, pick 45.1) at cost. This is a fairly long tier of players—don’t feel like you have to chase either well ahead of where they’re going—but I’d much rather take chances on these proven talents who operate in a far superior offensive environment than guys going in a similar range like Drake London, Terry McLaurin, and D.J. Moore.

And then there’s Johnston, who was the 21st overall pick in April’s 2023 NFL Draft. The Athletic’s Dane Brugler summarized the TCU product with the following notes in his ever-excellent “The Beast” breakdown:

“A three-year starter at TCU, Johnston was the X wide receiver in former offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s RPO-based offense (played the Z receiver position in 2021). He led the team in receiving yards each of his three seasons in Fort Worth and was a big-play creator before and after the catch (No. 2 in the FBS with 8.9 YAC per reception in 2022). A big man with small-man burst, Johnston accelerates well to stack, track and separate deep or create plays after the catch with his elusiveness, strength and instincts. His length and body control help him make impressive grabs away from his body, but he struggled with contested windows on tape and had more drops than touchdown catches in 2022. Overall, Johnston requires polish with his route-running and ball-finishing skills, but he offers legitimate big-play potential with his size-speed athleticism and catch radius. He has NFL-starting traits with upside as he continues to develop.”

While Johnston certainly has the skills to help provide a much-needed field-stretching element to this offense, his ability to rack up yards on designed low-aDOT opportunities shouldn’t be discounted. Priced as the WR42 (pick 80.7), Johnston (like everyone else in this ascending passing attack) is a buy for me at cost. 

He’s going alongside some of the last WRs with a real chance to make a major impact in 2023—an injury to either Allen or Wiliams could help the rookie explode in a major way this season, while his presumed status as a starter in three-WR sets in an offense happy to keep three receivers heavily involved could still provide boom-or-bust WR3 production even if the position group’s veterans manage to stay on the field for 17 games apiece.

TE: Gerald Everett (Ian’s TE11), Donald Parham (TE55)

The six-year veteran enjoyed career-best marks in targets (87), receptions (58), and receiving yards (555) alike in 2022, and that doesn’t even include his sterling 6-109-1 performance in the Chargers’ ill-fated Wild Card loss to the Jaguars.

It’s hard to overstate just how impressive that latter performance was. Everett demonstrated some truly ridiculous YAC ability on multiple occasions during the performance, looking like a juiced-up WR with the ball in his hands.

Yes, Everett benefited from both Allen and Williams missing time in 2022, although neither has exactly been a model of good health during their respective careers.

Also yes, Everett was regularly forced into playing a suboptimal part-time role in an offense that made sure to keep the likes of Parham, Stephen Anderson, and/or Tre’ McKitty (meow) also involved under ex-OC Joe Lombardi.

One of the main knocks on Everett is seemingly in reference to the time that he was too tired to make a play on the football against the Chiefs, leading to a game-altering pick-six by Herbert. Remember:

1. This happened in Week 2 and didn’t impact Everett’s playing time for the rest of the season.
2. Everett was tired in the first place because he had just caught back-to-back passes for 33 yards to get the offense on the goal line in the first place.
3. The veteran TE literally asked for a breather before the play and shouldn’t have been leaned on in that position in the first place.

One single PPR point separated the TE9 and TE15 on a per-game basis last season; the TE2 landscape is generally a shit show, so don’t be afraid to wait on someone like Everett, who combines proven YAC goodness inside of one of the league’s best overall offensive environments.

My most-drafted TE of the offseason: Everett is a full-time role away from vying for weekly top-eight treatment at the position, and even without one he’ll be tough to slide too far down the TE2 ranks thanks to his ability to provide true boom weeks inside of this loaded offense.

2023 win total: 9.5 (-130 juice on the over)

The Chargers finished 10-7 last season, overperforming their expected 8.7-8.3 record when looking at pure point differential. The team was at least a little bit lucky to go 7-5 in regular-season contests decided by one score.

Of course, the team also had to deal with rather severe injuries to key difference-makers on both sides of the ball. The team’s offensive issues have already been discussed at length, but don’t discount the league’s reigning 21st-ranked scoring defense rebounding in a major way with a fully healthy Joey Bosa in the fold.

It’s tough to expect anyone to surpass the Chiefs, but I like the Chargers chances at again notching a Wild Card berth and going over 9.5 wins. You don’t need more than two hands (maybe not even one) to count the number of offenses more lethal than this group, while the defense has enough blue-chip talents to imagine a meaningful rebound.

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