2023 Team Preview: Los Angeles Rams
Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone. It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.
What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Los Angeles Rams, looking at key questions like:
- Can Matthew Stafford rebound in a major way after an injury-riddled, disappointing 2022 campaign?
- Will Cam Akers finally see a three-down role for the entire season?
- How many WRs should be drafted ahead of Cooper Kupp in 2023?
Every fantasy-relevant player from the Rams will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.
Notable Offseason Moves
From the front office to the coaching staff to the roster, every NFL team will be different in 2023 compared to their respective 2022 version.
Sean McVay is the NFL’s youngest head coach for the seventh year in a row. In 2023, he’ll be joined by former Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur, although McVay isn’t expected to give up play-calling duties.
The Rams have ranked first, second, 11th, 22nd, seventh, and 27th in points per game from 2017 to 2022, respectively. Los Angeles was truly abysmal on offense last year, ranking dead last in offensive yards and 27th in expected points added (EPA) per play.
Of course, key injuries on offense didn’t help matters last season. Don’t be surprised if the squad gets back to 2021 passing levels with a healthier Stafford this coming year.
- 2022: -3.1% pass rate over expected (No. 17)
- 2021: +2.6% (No. 6)
- 2020: -0.6% (No. 16)
- 2019: +2.1% (No. 7)
- 2018: +1.4% (No. 9)
- 2017: -1.3% (No. 17)
The fact the Rams ranked 30th in neutral situation pace didn’t help matters last season, but they did rank first, third, third, 12th, and fourth in neutral situation pace from 2017 to 2021, so there's hope that things normalize on that front as well. Stafford still profiles as a QB capable of being efficient and enabling multiple fantasy-friendly pass-catchers if healthy.
Additionally, the Rams have made plenty of changes to their roster this offseason. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left Los Angeles in some way, shape, or form since the start of free agency in March:
- QB: The backup QB room has been completely overhauled, as Baker Mayfield and John Wolford both departed for Tampa Bay, and Bryce Perkins remains unsigned. To replace them, Los Angeles added Brett Rypien to back up Stafford on a one-year, $1.08 million deal.
- RB: Longtime early-down grinder Malcolm Brown remains an unrestricted free agent, and they instead decided to bring back old friend Sony Michel on a small one-year contract.
- WR: The Rams traded Allen Robinson to the Steelers for a seventh-round pick swap, and Brandon Powell departed for Minnesota. To replace them, Los Angeles added Demarcus Robinson on a one-year, $1.165 million deal for depth.
- TE: The Rams acquired Dolphins TE Hunter Long as part of the deal that sent Jalen Ramsey to Miami.
The front office didn't have many early-round picks to work with during the 2023 NFL Draft, but they did select Georgia QB Stetson Bennett (4.18), Clemson TE Davis Allen (5.175), BYU WR Puka Nacua (5.177), and Ole Miss RB Zach Evans (6.15) as potentially fantasy-relevant additions on offense.
While Nacua and Evans have both garnered some offseason hype as of late, the history of draft capital doesn't indicate good odds of success for Day 3 selections in their rookie seasons or beyond.
QBs
- Matthew Stafford (Ian’s QB20)
- Stetson Bennett (QB65)
The 35-year-old signal-caller is just one season removed from having thrown for a robust 4,886 yards and 41 TDs. In fact, Stafford was the league’s most-efficient QB in EPA per play (including playoffs) in 2021.
Of course, then 2022 happened. The Rams' 25th-ranked offensive line per Pro Football Focus (PFF) didn’t help matters, but that doesn’t change the fact that Stafford set 10-year lows in TD rate (3.3%), adjusted yards per attempt (6.4), yards per completion (10.1), and passing yards per game (231.9) last season.
And in 2022, Stafford threw multiple TDs in just two of his nine starts and surpassed 275 passing yards in only one game. His average of 12.0 fantasy points per game (PPG) last year was fifth-worst among 32 QBs with at least eight starts last season, better than only Kenny Pickett, Zach Wilson, Jacoby Brissett, and Baker Mayfield. That's not the best company to keep in fantasy.
Nov 20, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford (9) makes a throw in the second quarter against the New Orleans Saints at the Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports
The hope is that Stafford’s health is in a much better place than in 2022, when he dealt with elbow, concussion, and spinal cord injuries throughout the season. The doctors of Twitter do seem to believe that these injuries won’t impact the Rams QB in 2023, though.
If healthy, Stafford could possibly be the biggest QB value in all of fantasy football at his current ADP as the QB21 at pick No. 158 overall. He’s rather consistently provided borderline QB1 fantasy production over the years save for the occasional down campaign. Here are Stafford's fantasy PPG since entering the league:
- 2022: 12.0 (QB28)
- 2021: 19.4 (QB11)
- 2020: 16.3 (QB20)
- 2019: 20.8 (QB4)
- 2018: 13.3 (QB28)
- 2017: 17.1 (QB8)
- 2016: 17.5 (QB11)
- 2015: 18.1 (QB12)
- 2014: 15.7 (QB16)
- 2013: 17.4 (QB9)
Historically, QBs with 10-plus years of experience have been plenty adept at continuing to churn out high-end fantasy seasons. While Father Time eventually comes for every QB, Stafford’s howitzer for a right arm sure didn’t look to be on the verge of falling off the last time we saw him fully healthy in 2021.
Stafford’s status as a zero in the rushing game will require him to be very efficient once again through the air, but he's still a massive value at his current ADP. Stafford is being drafted just behind QBs like Jordan Love and Derek Carr, and his ADP is nearly four rounds later than guys like Kirk Cousins and Geno Smith. Stafford arguably has a similar floor and higher ceiling than all those QB options.
Fire up the 35-year-old veteran as a prime late-round bounce-back candidate. At a minimum, Stafford should be a solid Week 1 streaming option in a potential shootout against the Seahawks.
RBs
- Cam Akers (Ian’s RB19)
- Zach Evans (RB69)
- Kyren Williams (RB79)
- Sony Michel (RB101)
Akers’s 2022 campaign consisted mostly of inconsistent usage and trade rumors before a surprising breakout during the final six weeks of the season.
- Week 13: 17-60-2 rushing, 1-0-0 receiving, 72% snaps
- Week 14: 12-42-1 rushing, 1-1-0 receiving, 42% snaps
- Week 15: 12-65-0 rushing, 3-35-0 receiving, 76% snaps
- Week 16: 23-118-3 rushing, 2-29-0 receiving, 75% snaps
- Week 17: 19-123-0 rushing, 1-10-0 receiving, 78% snaps
- Week 18: 21-104-0 rushing, 3-24-0 receiving, 100% snaps
Over this six-week span, Akers was the PPR RB4! The 24-year-old RB has had his lows over the years, but Akers has demonstrated legit elite RB1 upside when he's seen a true every-down role in spurts down the stretch in both 2020 and 2022.
He certainly didn’t look like a man hindered by his recovery from a torn Achilles by the end of last year. Akers finished the 2022 season with PFF’s 20th-highest elusive rating (56.7) among 42 qualifying RBs, ahead of guys like Miles Sanders (55.1), Alvin Kamara (47.6), and even Christian McCaffrey (47.6).
McVay even added fuel to the fire recently, stating that Akers is going to be a “huge part” of the Rams and a “central figure” in the offense.
Yes, fantasy managers have been burned by Akers before and should proceed with caution. But at the same time, Akers's primary competition for touches in the backfield from last year is gone. Both Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown are free agents, and the only additions this offseason have been Evans, the sixth-round rookie, and the return of Michel.
Paying much mind to the 215th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft normally wouldn’t be advised, but it's worth noting that the Rams did feel the need to trade up 37 spots in order to acquire the RB out of TCU and Ole Miss.
The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had the following to say about Evans in his excellent draft guide, “The Beast”:
“A one-year starter at Ole Miss, Evans shared the workload with SEC Freshman of the Year Quinshon Judkins in head coach Lane Kiffin’s RPO-based scheme. His carries and rushing production increased each of his three college seasons, although he accounted for only 23.5 percent of the Rebels’ carries in 2022.
With his explosive one-cut skills, Evans has fantastic feet to give defenders the slip and excels with an outside track, using his acceleration to win the corner, out-angle pursuit and weave through the defense. His all-gas run style can be effective (22.9 percent of his carries in 2022 resulted in a 10-plus-yard gain), but he would also benefit with improved patience to better set up blocks and force missed tackles.
Overall, Evans has some baggage and a few undeveloped areas on his NFL résumé, but there is no denying his burst and balance to create explosive plays in different ways. A boom-or-bust prospect, he has the athletic talent to be a dynamic change-of-pace option and offers RB1 potential for an NFL offense.”
McVay also noted this offseason that Evans’s skill set complements that of both Akers and scat back Kyren Williams, but there’s a solid 15-plus lb. weight difference between those guys.
Ultimately, Akers deserves to be prioritized in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. He’s an arbitrage version of Najee Harris, who is being drafted four rounds earlier, on average. The Steelers and Rams are two of very few offenses who have historically been willing to give near workhorse-roles to RBs.
The only reason I haven’t drafted more of Akers this offseason is because Darren Waller and Deshaun Watson are both enticing in the same ADP range.
As for Evans, he's a fine late-round dart throw who might just be one injury away from being the most fantasy-friendly RB in this backfield. Of course, this RB group essentially failed to enable a single consistent fantasy stud until December last year, so don’t get too carried away with the former five-star recruit (by the way, Akers was a five-star back in the day too).
The decision to sign Michel can’t be ignored; after all, he did rack up 229 touches for this team back in 2021. That said, Michel took a clear backseat to both Akers and Henderson during the playoffs that season, and Michel struggled to make much of anything happen in 2022.
If anything, the presence of Michel is more of a hindrance to the breakout potential of Evans and Williams than a concern for Akers. The fact that the team’s only incoming free agent competition is a 28-year-old veteran who only averaged 2.9 yards per carry with the Chargers last season adds even more credence to the idea that Akers might not be leaving the field too often in 2023.
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WRs
- Cooper Kupp (Ian’s WR3)
- Van Jefferson (WR68)
- Puka Nacua (WR93)
- Tutu Atwell (WR94)
All Kupp has done with Stafford is smash as the overall WR1 in PPR PPG in back-to-back seasons now. Kupp's 22.4 PPR PPG last year wasn't quite as impressive as his 25.9 PPR PPG in 2021, but even so, his 2022 per-game stats would've put him on pace for the fourth most-productive WR season over the last five years.
Kupp is still arguably the single-best WR in the game when healthy.
And yet, it’s not Kupp’s objectively high talent level that makes him worthy of being a top-three option at the WR position. It’s the ridiculous volume he's projected for when healthy. Nobody has averaged more targets per game than Kupp has over the past two seasons, and it hasn’t been particularly close:
- Kupp (11.1)
- Davante Adams (10.6)
- Justin Jefferson (10.3)
- Tyreek Hill (9.7)
- Stefon Diggs (9.6)
The 30-year-old veteran remains the engine of this entire Rams offense, and last season proved that Kupp remains capable of putting up bonkers fantasy numbers even in an otherwise abysmal offense. It was honestly a bit sad how often Los Angeles threw him screens down multiple TDs in various games.
The only WRs I would draft ahead of Kupp this season are Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase, as both of whom have similarly ridiculous talent and projected volume as Kupp but at younger ages that typically make them far friendlier in fantasy land.
As for the rest of the Rams' WRs, Van Jefferson is locked in as the No. 2 WR and should play a near every-down role. Still, his best season in 2021 (50-802-6) only produced a WR47 finish in PPR PPG, and that was while sharing the field with Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. throughout different portions of that season. Jefferson deserves top billing behind Kupp.
Then there's Tutu Atwell. The pint-sized speedster flashed the ability to get behind the secondary last season. He also played over 80% of the offense’s snaps in three of his final four games, but ultimately, Atwell has just two career games with more than 50 receiving yards. It’d make sense if Atwell serves more of a pure field-stretching role on a middling snap rate with everyone healthy.
And finally, there's the rookie, Puka Nacua, who's been getting some camp hype despite his low draft capital as the 177th overall pick in 2023. Still, he has a path to opportunity. Ben Skowronek played at least 85% of the offense’s snaps in eight of his 14 games last season but was PFF’s lowest-graded WR, so Nacua could quickly displace the former seventh-rounder as a starter in three-WR sets, even as a rookie.
I’m fine throwing darts at all of these ancillary Rams WRs in best ball to pair with Stafford, but I generally prefer other rookie WRs, handcuff RBs, and legit starting TEs in the later rounds of best ball drafts.
TEs
- Tyler Higbee (Ian’s TE15)
- Hunter Long (TE61)
Higbee managed to post fantasy goodness with both Stafford and Mayfield under center in 2022, and his early-season spike weeks came despite sharing the field with Kupp.
There’s actually an argument that the Rams No. 1 TE underachieved in 2022 when looking at expected PPR PPG:
- Kyle Pitts (-34.5 PPR points below expectation)
- Higbee (-32.9)
- Cade Otton (-29.2)
- Cameron Brate (-24.9)
- Logan Thomas (-24.4)
Sometimes scoring fantasy points below expectation is unlucky, and sometimes it’s a sign that a player is bad. Either way, Higbee had the volume of a legit top-five option at the TE position last season. In fact, only Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Zach Ertz, T.J. Hockenson, Kyle Pitts, and Dalton Schultz averaged more expected PPR PPG than Higbee last season.
Of course, Higbee’s most productive periods of his career have relied on volume and have come during McVay’s worst seasons as an offensive play-caller, so it’s unlikely that Los Angeles is planning to feature Higbee as a central part of the passing offense in 2023 unless something else were to go drastically wrong.
Sustained top-10 fantasy TE production seems unlikely for Higbee this coming season, but that’s okay because he's priced as just the TE16 in ADP and often available outside the top 150 overall picks. Higbee joins Gerald Everett as my two favorite unsung veteran TEs to target super late in drafts.
2023 Win Total: 6.5
- +110 on the over
The Rams are paying the price for having gone all-in on their Super Bowl run in 2021. Of course, they did win the Super Bowl two seasons ago, so another year of taking lumps and bruises shouldn’t hurt the legacy of anyone involved.
And yet, this Los Angeles team is capable of reaching great heights on offense when Stafford and Kupp are clicking despite a lack of talent around them. The same could be said of the defense. The Rams could still cause problems for opposing offenses even after having traded away Jalen Ramsey as long as they have “that 99 guy”, a.k.a. Aaron Donald, the single-best defensive lineman in the game.
Ultimately, give me over 6.5 wins with faith in McVay fielding an above-.500 team when given a healthy QB to execute his offensive scheme. McVay has gotten the Rams to 11, 13, nine, 10, and 12 wins in the five seasons prior to last year, so there's little reason to think that Los Angeles can't get to at least a measly total of seven wins in 2023.
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