2023 Team Preview: New Orleans Saints

Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.

What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the New Orleans Saints, looking at key questions like:

1. Will Derek Carr finally offer some fantasy upside in year 10?
2. Are all three RBs worthwhile fantasy darts in this muddled backfield?
3. What will the target distribution look like between Chris Olave and Michael Thomas?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Saints will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview Landing Page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.

Notable Offseason Moves

From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.

The first year of the post-Sean-Payton era certainly didn’t go great for the 7-10 Saints, but head coach Dennis Allen and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael are back leading the squad anyway.

Carmichael has been in this role since 2009, but it’s tough to look at the 2009 to 2020 years without wondering exactly how much Drew Brees had to do with everything.

The last two years have demonstrated far less willingness than usual to 1.) Throw the football, and 2.) Operate with a sense of urgency.

• 2022: -6.8% pass rate over expected (No. 26); 33.04 seconds per play in neutral situations (No. 29)
• 2021: -6.2% (No. 29); 31.03 (No. 14)

Perhaps the team’s newest QB will result in them reverting back to a pass-happy 2010s style offense, but if not, this could wind up profiling as one of the league’s least fantasy-friendly offenses due to concerns with both overall and pass-game volume.

Additionally, the Saints have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs have either joined or left New Orleans in some way, shape or form this offseason:

• QB: 2022 starter Andy Dalton took his red hair talents to Carolina to work behind Bryce Young. Enter longtime Raiders QB Derek Carr (5 years, $125 million), who signed a robust deal that includes $70.2 million guaranteed. Note that the team is able to get out of the deal with less than six million in dead money after 2024.
• RB: Longtime grinder Mark Ingram remains an unrestricted free agent, as do 2022 backup David Johnson and Dwayne Washington. The replacement: ex-Packers and, more recently, Lions RB Jamaal Williams (3 years, $12 million), who gets $8.15 million guaranteed in his new deal.
• WR: It remains unclear what the next move is for unrestricted free agent WR Jarvis Landry, while complementary options Marquez Callaway (Broncos) and Deonte Harty (Bills) have both already signed elsewhere.
• TE: The Saints basically swapped out 2022 contributors Adam Trautman (traded to the Broncos) and Nick Vannett (unrestricted free agent) for former Raiders backup TE Foster Moreau (3 years, $12.2 million) and sheriff Jesse James (1-year).

The biggest skill-position contributor added from the draft was undoubtedly TCU RB Kendre Miller (3.71), who showed off a nice blend of explosiveness and pile-pushing ability during his time in college. Otherwise, Fresno State QB Jake Haener and Wake Forest WR A.T. Perry were the only other skill-position players drafted; don’t expect either to provide much fantasy goodness in 2023 and likely beyond if the history of draft capital tells us anything.

QBs

• Derek Carr (Ian’s QB19)
• Jameis Winston (QB47)

Carr had some good moments with the Raiders.

The 2016 season was full of late-game heroics and earned him some legit MVP consideration. The Gruden years consisted of more ups than downs on the stat sheet, as Carr managed to throw for more yards than any QB not named Patrick Mahomes, Tom Brady or Matt Ryan from 2018 to 2021. Even last year at least featured some fun moments with Davante Adams.

Unfortunately, through it all, Carr has been nothing other than a mediocre fantasy QB.

• 2022: QB20 in fantasy points per game
• 2021: QB18
• 2020: QB18
• 2019: QB23
• 2018: QB25
• 2017: QB20
• 2016: QB10
• 2015: QB18
• 2014: QB26

It shouldn’t be seen as a complete given that Carr is better under center than what Dalton provided last year. Metrics like adjusted yards per attempt (7.5 vs. 6.7), adjusted completion rate (76.8% vs. 70.8%) and PFF passing grade (81.0 vs. 65.4) paint the picture of Andy Dalton being a superior signal-caller to Carr in 2022. Although, the latter QB did hold the lead in EPA per dropback (0.07 vs. 0.02).

Maybe going from Josh McDaniels to Pete Carmichael is a win schematically, although it’s not like Dalton (QB25 in fantasy points per game) emerged as a viable fantasy option even with heightened efficiency. The involved weaponry isn’t too shabby either way, but it’s tough to see a single individual in New Orleans hold a candle to Davante Adams’ 2022 greatness.

Mar 11, 2023; Metairie, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) speaks at Ochsner Sports Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

There’s nothing wrong with Carr in fantasy land when your squad already managed to land Chris Olave or Michael Thomas earlier; he’s just not worth going out of your way for due to the demonstrated low best-case ceiling at hand. Firmly in the long QB2 mix, Carr is an acceptable second QB option in best ball and someone zero-QB drafters could take a gander at with a late-round pick in re-draft land.

Check out this best ball stream between myself and Fantasy Life’s Chris Allen for a full draft and discussion surrounding whether or not Carr’s depressed ADP could make him a value in the right build.

RBs

• Alvin Kamara (Ian’s RB31)
• Jamaal Williams (RB40)
• Kendre Miller (RB44)

Any conversation on Kamara’s 2023 fantasy stock comes down to how he recovers from last year’s devastating season-ending knee injury. I wrote the following on Kamara in my offseason injury report roundup:

“Recently released footage sure doesn’t seem to paint Kamara in the brightest light regarding his ongoing assault case. Another video appears to show Kamara confirming/bragging that he connected cleanly on the victim’s jaw. Not great!

Fantasy football legal expert/real-life criminal defense attorney Drew Davenport made a helpful Twitter thread explaining the specifics of the case and noted “Things are dicey for Kamara’s upcoming season, and I’m still out in all formats.”

Davenport considers the case complicated enough that a settlement seems unlikely and ultimately predicts Kamara will be suspended for four to eight games of the 2023 season. 2023 concern: 10/10 – Actively expecting them to miss at least a few games.”

No decision has been reached just yet, but the expectation continues to be that something has to be done at some point. For now, treat Kamara like the 2023 RB version of DeAndre Hopkins: Someone who will give you a lot of goose eggs during the first two months of the season but is still a luxury pick worth targeting after the first six to seven rounds of drafts, thanks to the reality that they will be right back inside the position’s top-15 options upon being reinstated.

And then there’s Williams, who profiles as the team's lead early-down back regardless of if Kamara is on the field.

It’s pretty hard to score 17 TDs and not be good at football. That does not describe Williams, who has provided more than solid play at the position for both the Packers and Lions over the years (he’s also hilarious).

Still, it’s not like Williams usually had to travel all that far in order to find his way into the end zone last season.

Williams was fine on a per-carry basis in 2022; just realize his production has far more to do with his offensive environment than his own personal individual greatness.

• PFF rushing grade: 75.6 (No. 28 among 42 qualified RB)
• % of carries to go for 1st down or TD: 31.3% (No. 2)
• Yards per carry: 4.1 (No. 30)
• Yards after contact per carry: 2.78 (tied for No. 27)
• Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.115 (No. 35)
• Elusive Rating: 32.5 (No. 38)

There’s potential here for Williams to soak up more of a true every-down handcuff role here compared to Detroit. But it’s tough to see him working as more than a TD-dependent RB3 whenever Kamara is available. I’m cool with Williams while he’s going in a reasonable range of the draft where the available WR talent drops off; just be careful about a spike in ADP if/when a Kamara suspension is announced.

You can take advantage of the current ADP discount on Williams over on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!

Finally, Miller has earned some offseason hype due to the idea that he might be able to work as the offense’s version of Kamara should the veteran miss time. A lot of this is because of the rookie’s own thoughts on the situation, but regardless his standing as a Day 2 pick forces us to take notice of the opportunity at hand.

The Athletic’s Dane Brugler had the following summary on Miller in his ever-excellent “The Beast” breakdown:

“A one-year starter at TCU, Miller was the lead back in former offensive coordinator Garrett Riley’s RPO-based offense. A lower-level high school quarterback, he was pushed up the Horned Frogs’ depth chart when Zach Evans bolted for Ole Miss. Miller responded with 1,399 rushing yards in 2022, which were the most by a TCU player in more than 20 years when LaDainian Tomlinson led the country in rushing yards (2,158) in 2000. A patient runner, Miller has lively feet for his size to slice through openings, tempo his cuts or flash a pull-away gear on the outside. Though very competitive as a runner, he isn’t a true power back, and his upright run style might negate a few of his strengths vs. NFL competition. Overall, Miller is a work in progress as a receiver and blocker, and his decision-making as a runner has room for improvement, but his lower-body agility, acceleration and natural balance are traits that can upgrade an NFL backfield. Not being able to work out pre-draft might hurt him a tad on draft weekend, but he has NFL starting talent.”

Similar to Williams, I’m fine drafting Miller in the mid-RB4 range because there certainly is a path to upside should his projected pass-down role come to fruition in the event of a Kamara suspension.

TCU running back Kendre Miller tries to break away from Michigan safety Makari Paigepast during the Fiesta Bowl at State Farm Stadium, Dec. 31, 2022. Syndication Usa Today

Also, similar to Miller, we shouldn’t assume we know too much about how the dominos will fall in this backfield. Veteran Eno Benjamin has the sort of theoretical pass-down ability to quickly turn this into a three-headed nightmare in fantasy land, and Kamara still profiles as the clear lead back whenever eligible and healthy enough to suit up.

WRs

• Chris Olave (Ian’s WR15)
• Michael Thomas (WR48)
• Rashid Shaheed (WR78)
• Tre’Quan Smith (WR121)

Olave was pretty, pretty, pretty good as a rookie. Like, great. Like, “one of the most efficient seasons for a rookie the position has seen over the past decade” great.

All Olave did in 2022 was average the fifth-most yards per route run by a rookie receiver over the past 10 years:

1. 2014 Odell Beckham Jr. (2.75 yards per route run)
2. 2019 A.J. Brown (2.67)
3. 2020 Justin Jefferson (2.66)
4. 2021 Ja’Marr Chase (2.51)
5. 2022 Olave (2.42)

Highlights included Olave making Jalen Ramsey a burn victim and plenty of route-running goodness.

And yet, Olave's 72-1,042-4 receiving line (in 15 games) “only” produced WR26 status in PPR points per game.

Olave is expected to make one of the bigger 2023 leaps of any WR with a top-24 ADP over at Underdog Fantasy.

Of course, that list is full of rising second-year WRs. The position does typically produce far more second-year fantasy studs than rookies.

Still, last season’s efficient performance probably (?) can’t get that much better, and it’s not a given that top-tier volume is on the way should Thomas stay healthy for a change. The Saints were a bottom-seven bad-injury luck offense last season in terms of adjusted games lost.

The aforementioned possibility that Carr isn’t a massive upgrade over Dalton adds further issues to the idea that Olave should be drafted as a top-12 WR. I’m not too far off from his positional ranking but haven’t found myself taking him at the 2/3 turn when stud RBs like Tony Pollard, Josh Jacobs and Derrick Henry are still available.

And then there’s Thomas, who reportedly had hardware removed from his foot in early March. Head Coach Dennis Allen expects Thomas to be ready for the start of training camp. Although, it’s tough to be overly optimistic about the health of someone who has only managed to play in 10 regular-season games over the past three years.

Sep 11, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) catches a pass over Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24) in the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

Of course, Thomas did shine during his lone three appearances of 2022, mossing A.J. Terrell twice for scores and even finding the end zone vs. “slant boy” originator Carlton Davis in Week 2.

• Week 1: 5 rec-57 yards-2 TD (8 targets)
• Week 2: 6-65-1 (9)
• Week 3: 5-49-0 (5)

The Saints gave Thomas an incentive-laden deal with only $6.2 million guaranteed. Still, he’s fully expected to start alongside Olave in two-WR sets … if healthy.

Public perception is that Olave will still outperform Thomas if both are healthy for 17 games. I’m not so sure – the latter receiver still owns the NFL’s single-season reception record and seems like a better bet to soak up underneath and intermediate targets than Olave, who carried the position’s sixth-highest average target depth (14.9) among 84 qualified WRs last season.

Obviously, Olave deserves to be ranked far higher due to the health concerns here, but it’s likely that the ranks will be far closer when it’s time to project for Week 1 as opposed to the entire season. Thomas is priced right around Elijah Moore and Jameson Williams, two more receivers who are one good week of usage (or finishing a suspension) away from rocketing up the ranks.

I haven’t made a habit of dipping my toes too deep into the WR5 waters; that’s the range that some very good RB3s are still available. Still, Thomas is someone worth throwing some late-round darts at if you believe the documented evidence that players aren’t innately injury prone.

Oh yeah, and Shaheed. The man can ball.

Shaheed was actually more efficient than Olave in terms of yards per route run (2.59 – tied for third!) if you move the threshold down to 34 targets (lol). He only wound up playing even half of the game’s snaps on five occasions; just realize the 24-year-old talent flashed in a major way in his limited opportunities last year.

Priced as the WR74 over at Underdog Fantasy, Shaheed is a viable late-round dart when attempting to complete a Saints stack and/or snag a Week 17 bring-back option.

TEs

• Juwan Johnson (Ian’s TE20)
• Taysom Hill (TE21)
• Foster Moreau (TE38)

I was originally excited about Johnson’s potential to work as the offense’s clear-cut No. 1 receiving TE, but the team’s willingness to invest in backups at the position has clouded that idea.

• Johnson: Two-year, $12 million deal with $8.5 million guaranteed
• Moreau: Three-year, $12.2 million deal with $8.02 million guaranteed
• Jesse James: One-year, $1.165 million deal

Of course, Hill is the highest-paid player in the room after signing a four-year, $40 million extension with $21.5 million in guarantees last March. The deal could also be worth a helluva lot more should the Saints decide to keep the soon-to-be 33-year-old “TE” under contract.

It’d make sense if the Saints do go out of their way to feature Hill in one way or another this season.

Side note: I’m offended that Hill receives a TE designation in fantasy football. While the Saints technically list him as such on their roster, he played nearly triple as many snaps at QB (148) and double in the slot or out wide (101) than he did as a true inline TE (51) in 2022. Hill had more carries (96) and pass attempts (19) than he did targets (13).

I believe Hill is a real-life FLEX who should be treated as such in fantasy land.

Unfortunately, for now, Hill remains a TE in fantasy, so I’ll have to deal with it and treat him as such in the ole ranks.

That said: I’m out on Hill as someone worth going out of your way to land in fantasy drafts of most shapes and sizes. The pipe dream of him landing a full-time QB job seems slim with both Derek Carr and Jameis Winston signed for 2023 and beyond, leaving the soon-to-be 33-year-old BYU product as more of a gadgety wild cat type.

Kudos to Hill for making the most out of this role in 2022, but his standing as the TE34 in expected PPR points per game reflects the reality that he drastically outperformed his workload in 2022. One target is worth roughly 2.7 carries in terms of expected PPR points; a pure rushing role isn’t all that cool in fantasy land outside of the occasional weather-induced nightmare that necessitates leaning on someone like Hill.

Johnson deserves to be ranked the highest of the group after his impressive 42-508-7 campaign from last season; just realize he didn’t exactly handle an every-down role on a week-to-week basis, and the insertion of Moreau, in particular, could lower the ceilings of everyone involved.

2023 Win Total: 9.5 (+100 on the over)

The Saints are the de facto favorites inside this sad excuse of a division. While Derek Carr has led his team to double-digit wins on two occasions during his career, the other seven years produced records with eight or fewer wins.

Of course, Carr goes from arguably the worst QB in his division to inarguably the best (at least ahead of 2023). Throw in a Saints defense that ranked ninth in scoring last year, even with No. 1 CB Marshon Lattimore all sorts of banged up, and it’s easy to see why New Orleans is getting the benefit of the doubt.

I’ll take over 9.5 wins for a team that will get to face Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young and one of Baker Mayfield or Kyle Trask six times next season.

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