2024 Offseason Analysis. WRs With the Most to Lose or Gain.
I’ll be honest. Sometimes I tend to overthink things. When I don’t have a baseline expectation or reference of how to respond to a situation, I'll stop and take a moment to contemplate…everything. I can look calm, cool, and collected in the moment while everyone else is overreacting, but I'll admit that my slower response time isn’t advantageous in every scenario.
As we careen towards the 2024 NFL Draft, every NFL team's front office will force us to reevaluate their squads from a fantasy perspective. From trades to free-agent signings, the markets will instantly react. And we should, too.
So to help set expectations, I’ll look at some veteran WRs who aren’t on the move but may see a value shift depending on what unfolds over the next couple of months.
Drake London, Falcons
It’s a brave new world in Atlanta. Recently hired Falcons head coach Raheem Morris brought over Zac Robinson, who’s spent his entire coaching career on Sean McVay’s staff, to be his offensive coordinator.
While this move doesn’t necessarily signal that Atlanta is going to suddenly rival the Chiefs or Bills in pass rate, it’s hard to imagine them staying as run-heavy as they've been under Arthur Smith in recent years. Here's how the Falcons and Rams have looked in terms of dropback over expectation rate (DBOE) the last two seasons:
- Falcons: -23.0% in 2022 and -7.0% in 2023
- Rams: 2.0% in 2022 and -1.0% in 2023
Add in the possibility of a QB upgrade, perhaps Kirk Cousins (who's somewhat familiar with the new Atlanta coaching staff), and baby, you've got a stew going.
Now consider Drake London’s fantasy value in 2024 if everything were to break right for him this offseason. London ended his rookie campaign with a 3.06 yards per route run (YPRR), which led all WRs with a minimum 15.0% target share, over the final four games of the season after Desmond Ridder assumed command of the offense.
Admittedly, London then took a step back last year. However, his 30.0% targets per route run (TPRR) still ranked among the top-20 WRs even though the Falcons added pass-catching competition. And as of right now, London’s path to volume looks clearer in 2024.
However, when projecting more total pass attempts from Atlanta next season with less competition, I’m on board. As long as the Falcons don't add another impact WR in free agency or an early-round rookie, London should continue to be a priority target in 2024.
Khalil Shakir, Bills
I’m struggling to figure out the Bills’ offense from last year. Josh Allen has a cannon attached to his right shoulder, but his average depth of target (aDOT) hit a career-low (8.6) in 2023.
Accordingly, his +5.0% CPOE and 52.0% passing success rate ranked second and third among all starting QBs. Short and intermediate attempts work! And their personnel decisions (past and present) jibe with this philosophy.
Buffalo took TE Dalton Kincaid at 25th overall in last year’s draft. Plus, Stefon Diggs also saw an increase in short-area looks from Allen. The former Vikings’ receiving aDOT dropped a full two yards from 2022 (12.6 to 10.6). And the biggest piece of evidence for this continued shift on offense is their willingness to let Gabe Davis test free agency.
This could put Khalil Shakir in an advantageous spot heading into the 2024 season.
By no means is the former fifth-round pick a 1:1 replacement for Davis. Davis is bigger than Shakir in both in height and weight and has primarily played outside while Shakir is a smaller WR who's manned the slot on 72.1% of his snaps since having entering the league two years ago. But if Buffalo wants to find a reliable, efficient pass-catcher, they may not need to look far.
When given more work last season, Shakir excelled. Although the above chart doesn't guarantee future production, it does at least indicate that Shakir is capable of handling a larger role. Despite having seen just 45 targets, he simultaneously had the highest first down per target rate (57.8%) and explosive play rate (26.1%) on the team.
The Bills never fully committed to using two-TE packages in 2023 and maintained three-WR sets throughout the regular season and playoffs. If Buffalo doesn't add a significant free agent WR or early-round rookie, Shakir could see a near full-time role in 2024, which would give him tantalizing fantasy upside with Allen.
Rashod Bateman, Ravens
Trust me, I’m like you. This sentiment from the Ravens’ coaching staff has burned me before.
Rashod Bateman hasn’t eclipsed 400 receiving yards in a single season since 2021. But let’s entertain Harbaugh’s declaration for just a second. I’ll even take it a step further and assume that Bateman plays at least 16 games next season.
Even then, at first glance, his chance to take a step forward is hard to see. Here's how much Baltimore threw the ball over the last two years:
- DBOE: -6.0% in 2022 and 1.0% in 2023
- Early-down neutral pass rate: 52.3% in 2022 and 57.8% in 2023
Baltimore's hire of Todd Monken last offseason led to a higher pass rate in 2023, but the addition of Zay Flowers in the first round of the NFL Draft canceled out any benefit for Bateman, as the rookie had the 18th highest target share of any WR last season. In order for Bateman to see more opportunities, he’ll have to take them from someone else. But Bateman did show that he could do that last year.
Odell Beckham’s waning role over the second half of 2023 is curious. He saw a similar TPRR as Bateman for much of the year, but Beckham's role declined towards the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. The consensus was that Baltimore was saving Beckham for their playoff run after a midseason shoulder injury, but only seven targets in two playoff games might indicate otherwise.
Since it seems unlikely that Beckham will remain in Baltimore next year, there's at least a slim possibility that Bateman could finally see a bigger role alongside Flowers. He’ll need to dodge any offseason additions at WR for the Ravens, but Bateman has at least some upside in 2024 as of right now.
Michael Wilson, Cardinals
Michael Wilson had the eye of Arizona’s coaching staff during OTAs and training camp last offseason, then reality hit. The Cardinals desperately needed better QB play while Kyler Murray was out. Between Joshua Dobbs and Clayton Tune, Wilson and his 15.9-yard aDOT never had a chance. However, a few things could work in his favor next season.
After returning from a shoulder injury and with Murray back by then, Wilson’s share of targets and air yards picked up in the second half of 2023. With his downfield role, Wilson capitalized on the looks with the highest explosive play rate among all Arizona pass-catchers down the stretch.
It's admittedly a small sample size, but Wilson’s size at 6’2, 213 lbs. and skills as a run-blocker make him an ideal fit in offensive coordinator Drew Petzing’s scheme. To be fair though, Wilson and Zach Pascal are the only WRs on the team over 200 lbs.
Regardless, Wilson showed some flashes of promise with Murray late last year, Marquise Brown is testing free agency. The Cardinals do have two picks in the first round but have multiple holes on defense with a defensive-minded head coach. If Arizona were to lose Brown and not add an impact rookie WR, Wilson could turn into a worthy fantasy pick at ADP over the next few months.
