Fantasy Football Strategy. Avoiding Week 1 Overreactions.
Week 1 is a helluva drug.
It’s been a long seven months since our last bit of meaningful NFL action, leaving real-life fans and fantasy football degenerates alike absolutely DYING to get back into the swing of things.
Of course, the offseason has a way of causing some swift overreactions to whatever happens in the next week of action.
Slow starts, hot starts, questionable game-planning choices: Week 1 might technically only count for one-18th of the regular season, but you’d never know that based on the incoming overreactions to whatever goes down.
Sometimes a massive week-winning fantasy performance on opening night is simply a sign of even more great things to come.
Other times it’s simply Sammy Watkins back on his bullshit, or someone like Kevin Ogletree booming once before leading fantasy managers on an ill-fated wild-goose chase trying to re-capture that same lightning in a bottle.
Look no further than literally last year to find some reasonable — but ultimately wrong — interpretations from the first slate of games.
- Commanders QB Carson Wentz throws for 313 yards and four (!) TDs in a thrilling comeback win over the Jaguars, racking up more fantasy points than any QB not named Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in the process. Looks like Washington found their QB!
- Colts WR Michael Pittman caught nine of 13 targets for 121 yards and a score in Matt Ryan’s debut. Certainly, a third-year breakout is on the way now that Indy solved their problems under center!
- RBs like Kareem Hunt, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Dontrell Hilliard and James Robinson scored multiple TDs on their way to fantastic fantasy finishes. Surely each enjoyed loads of future success!
There were also plenty of examples on the other side with studs having rather brutal down weeks: CeeDee Lamb, Rhamondre Stevenson, Dameon Pierce, Amari Cooper and Tony Pollard are just a few names who scored fewer than 5.0 PPR fantasy points before putting forward objectively great fantasy seasons.
Hell, DeVonta Smith didn’t even record a catch in the opening 60 minutes of last season. He turned out alright!
Naturally, none of these situations wound up being all that reflective of 2022 fantasy production despite injuries largely not being a major issue for any party involved. THIS LEAGUE.
Determining whether or not a boom or bust fantasy performance is indicative of future production is what fantasy football management is all about.
Here are three key tips to NOT let Week 1 anxiety and hoopla get the best of you for better and for worse.
Tip #1: Keep your composure
Don’t panic!
As the late great Norm Macdonald once said: “You should never bet on football 'cause the ball ain't round.”
While I will continue to bet on football (especially with Fantasy Life providing FREE picks), Norm highlights just how quickly things can change with one bounce of the ball.
An overthrow can be the difference between winning or losing your game. Or maybe a drop. Or maybe an official ignored Terry McLaurin and nullified a game-winning TD on a ridiculous illegal formation penalty (Yes, I’m still bitter).
Randomness is a part of every sport to various extents, especially so in 11-on-11 tackle football… with a ball that ain't round.
Feel free to scream and cry when bad things inevitably happen to your fantasy team; just realize that separating bad luck from bad performance will help you avoid letting one bad Sunday negatively influence future roster decisions.
Which brings us to…
Tip #2: Follow the utilization
Fantasy Life's Director of Analytics Dwain McFarland’s Utilization Report has helped make him an international superstar.
Player usage might just be one piece of the puzzle that is fantasy football analysis — but there’s a very good argument for utilization being literally the BIGGEST piece of said puzzle.
Great performance *should* lead to enhanced usage, but this isn’t always the case. Certain player archetypes (scat backs, gadget WRs) or offensive systems (committee backfields, WR rotations) can prevent fantasy assets from getting full-time fantasy-friendly roles despite the occasional blowup game.
Don’t get it twisted: It’s awesome to have any player capable of booming in a major way when things go right, but chasing one-off production on limited opportunity is an easy way to overreact to a specific week’s performance — in a bad way.
The easiest way to avoid these issues is to read or listen to Dwain’s Utilization thoughts on a weekly basis.
They are free after all!
Tip #3: Stay *ahead* of the game on the waiver wire
Question: What’s the only thing cooler than picking up the week’s consensus top waiver wire option?
Answer: Already having them on your bench because you, a scholar, listened to GQ model/Fantasy Life contributor Chris Allen, who is already tracking the waiver wire before a single regular season game has been played.
Handcuff RBs become waiver wire darlings the second their team’s starter suffers any sort of injury; don’t be afraid to stash these sorts of archetypes instead of multiple QBs, TEs and DSTs when possible to help potentially expose your rosters to good injury luck.
The same sentiment is true when deciding between a backup RB or a complementary WR who you are never going to feel good about starting: Chase upside at all times.
Following a sound process isn’t always guaranteed to provide championship-level results in fantasy football land. That said: It certainly helps!
Social media in the year 2023 has a way of making every play of every game incredibly meaningful — which sometimes is true! — but other times it’s simply a result of the world not knowing how to sit still for a few minutes.
Watch Week 1. ENJOY Week 1. WIN Week 1. But don’t unnecessarily overreact to Week 1. Cool? Cool.
