Fantasy Questions for Draft Day 2024

Problems are solved by asking good questions. Today’s problem: How are we going to win our fantasy championships this season? Accordingly, here are six questions — and answers — that will help us ultimately accomplish just that.

Who is the Cowboys' RB1?

Maybe Jerry Jones' "all-in" offseason approach nets the team another RB in the future via trade, but for now the starting job seems to be between Ezekiel Elliott, Rico Dowdle, Deuce Vaughn and Royce Freeman.

While Zeke didn’t seem COMPLETELY washed up last season — fun fact: Elliott posted a faster top speed than Tony Pollard! — the former No. 4 overall pick has certainly been on a downward trend of late:

2018: +0.45 rushing yards over expected per carry (No. 17 among qualified RBs)
2019: +0.4 (No. 12)
2020: +0.03 (No. 32)
2021: -0.19 (No. 31)
2022: -0.34 (No. 43)
2023: -0.39 (No. 43)

Don’t expect a workhorse role for him in his age-29 season, but Elliott does profile as the most likely goal-line option in the NFL’s reigning No. 1 scoring offense. There’s potential for TD-dependent RB3 usage here, particularly if the Cowboys refrain from making any trades at the position between now and Week 1.

Dowdle is the other late-round dart worth throwing here. The former undrafted free agent has just 113 career touches to his name but flashed in 2023, particularly in the passing game where he posted top-10 marks at the position in yards per reception (8.5) and yards per route run (1.35). It's unlikely Rico ever seizes full control of the backfield, but keep in mind double-digit combined carries and targets per game in a likely top-10 scoring offense can go a long way in fantasy land.

Who is this season's prime late-round QB pick?

We'll define "late" as anything past Round 10 (ie. pick 120). Three contenders immediately emerge:

Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (QB16 ADP, pick 120.8): Battled through a bruised knee, high ankle sprain, concussion and a sprained A/C joint behind PFF's sixth-worst offensive line last season. Per sources (me), no QB had more dropped TDs or near-scores that featured only one foot down inbounds. But the front office threw buckets of cash at the O-line and retooled the WR room, so don't be surprised if the 24-year-old (!) talent finally breaks through in fantasy land in Year Four.

Jun 5, 2024; Ashburn, VA, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) passes a ball during an OTA workout at Commanders Park. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (QB17, pick 122.3): This mostly comes down to the 2024 NFL Draft No. 2 overall pick's sweet, sweet rushing upside. Overall, Daniels' 14.5 fantasy points per game from purely rushing production in his final collegiate season easily led this class and bested what guys like Kyler Murray (12.3) and Anthony Richardson (10) managed in their final year in school. Fifteen of the 16 QBs with 125-plus carries in a single season went on to post top-12 numbers in fantasy points per game — including 11 top-five finishes. Daniels projects as a fantasy stud from day one, even if his real-life passing efficiency initially leaves a bit to be desired.

Browns QB Deshaun Watson (QB22, pick 158.5): Posted fantasy QB8, QB25, QB10, QB8 and QB15 finishes in his only five full starts of 2023. Still one of just four QBs in NFL history to average at least 20 fantasy points per game during their career, you don't need more than one hand to count the league's current QBs with higher highs in fantasy land than what Watson managed in his pre-Cleveland days. It's far from guaranteed the 29-year-old will start partying like it's 2020 again, but the price point is cheaper than ever, and it would make sense if the Browns embrace more of a pass-first approach with longtime bell-cow RB Nick Chubb working his way back from last season's devastating knee injury.

What is the Bills' pass-game pecking order?

All of the involved options project to be pretty damn affordable for a passing game that has produced the ninth-most yards and third-most TDs through the air over the past three seasons. No offense boasts more available WR targets and air yards after Stefon Diggs was traded to the Texans and Gabe Davis took his talents to Jacksonville in free agency.

There are five main leaders in the clubhouse to work as QB Josh Allen's newfound No. 1 pass-game option. In order of likelihood:

TE Dalton Kincaid: Finished second on targets (91) to Diggs' 160 (lol) last season. The only problem is the potential absence of a full-time role: Kincaid's targets per game with fellow TE Dawson Knox healthy (5.0) were a far cry from what he pulled off in five games without (7.4).

Sep 3, 2023; Orlando, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Keon Coleman (4) runs the ball for a touchdown during the first half against the Louisiana State Tigers at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

WR Keon Coleman: Bills general manager Brandon Beane has already stated this: "Josh Allen knows we ... are going to be counting on Keon Coleman early." The 2024 NFL Draft's No. 33 overall pick provides Allen with arguably the most lethal contested-catch artist of his short career. There's double-digit TD upside here.

WR Khalil Shakir: Somehow managed more receiving yards than even Diggs (462 to 422) in the Bills' final 10 games of 2023 — and on less than half the targets (80 to 37). Don't expect the rising third-year WR to average 13.6 yards per target again, but volume-based WR3 upside is possible (particularly in full-PPR formats).

WR Curtis Samuel: His three-year, $24 million deal includes $15 million guaranteed, likely locking Samuel into three-WR sets for the next few years. The ex-Panthers and Commanders talent possesses dual-threat ability at WR and RB and is a candidate to rack up triple-digit combined carries and targets in 2024.

RB James Cook: Racked up 63 targets in 19 games (counting the playoffs) last season, although Bills RBs as a whole still ranked just 24th in targets on the season. That's life with a dual-threat QB such as Allen under center. Also note that incoming rookie Ray Davis is plenty capable of contributing in the passing game.

Ultimately, it'd make sense if Buffalo takes a page out of the Chiefs' manual and embraces more of a spread-out approach. Even then, this trio of WRs in particular look like quality mid- to late-round targets, with each projected to have an ADP outside the top 36 players at the position.

Just how high is too high to draft Colts QB Anthony Richardson?

Last year’s No. 4 overall pick proved to be a fantasy godsend in his limited opportunities in 2023:

Week 1: 20.9 fantasy points (QB4)
Week 2: 17.7 points in 18 snaps before suffering a concussion (QB19)
Week 4: 29.6 points (QB2)
Week 5: 4.4 points in 22 snaps before suffering a shoulder injury (QB28)

Overall, Richardson averaged a robust 0.73 fantasy points per dropback last season — the highest mark among all QBs with at least 75 dropbacks. Not bad for a guy who started only (checks notes) 13 total games in his collegiate career at Florida.

Oct 8, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

That said, the passing performance wasn’t pretty. Richardson ranked 45th in CPOE (-7.7%) among 49 qualified QBs. While his sub-60% completion rate isn’t a death blow considering guys like Jared Goff (54.6%), Andrew Luck (54.1%), Josh Allen (52.8%) and Jalen Hurts (52%) were all worse as rookies, it’s also not ideal.

No injury discount will be afforded here, but it's also tough to see Richardson NOT reaching at least top-10 heights with a little better bill of health considering the tantalizing rushing upside at hand inside of an offense that ranked second in neutral situation pace on the season. He warrants top-six treatment ahead of 2024.

Are there ANY Chargers players fantasy managers should be targeting?

The backfield certainly seems to be the place to look. Per Fantasy Life's Dwain McFarland, new head coach Jim Harbaugh's offenses have attempted more passes than runs just twice in his last 17 years as a head coach. This dwindles to just one occasion if we exclude the 2020 COVID season.

Yes, Justin Herbert is one helluva quarterback, but so was Andrew Luck, and that didn't stop Harbaugh from posting 63% and 59% run-play rates, respectively, during the 2009 and '10 seasons.

Throw in the lack of proven pass-catchers in this passing offense and the presence of longtime run-first offensive coordinator Greg Roman and it seems inevitable that the Chargers will rank among the NFL's most run-heavy offenses in 2024 and beyond.

The three main players expected to compete for lead-back duties:

J.K. Dobbins: Claims to be 100% following last season's Achilles injury, although the track record of RBs returning from Achilles injuries is littered with unfortunate tales. Kudos to D'Onta Foreman and Justice Hill for returning from the injury relatively well, but the same can't be said for backs such as James Robinson, Cam Akers and Marlon Mack, among others.
Gus Edwards: Has averaged a robust 4.9 yards per carry during his career and scored 13 TDs in 2023. That said, Lamar Jackson and the Ravens' typically great O-line certainly helped matters, and all but one of those 13 scores came from inside the 5-yard line.
Kimani Vidal: Boasts the sort of size (5-foot-8, 213 pounds) and speed (4.46 40-yard dash) to take a lonely fantasy analyst from six to midnight in a hurry. Throw in a career 92-700-1 receiving line in four seasons at Troy and you have a theoretical three-down talent with fantasy-friendly upside.

Betting on sixth-round picks is rarely a great idea — just six rookie RBs have managed top-24 numbers without the benefit of Day 1 or Day 2 draft capital over the past 10 years — but Vidal is in a soft enough depth chart to warrant late-round exposure. The artist known as Gus Bus (Edwards) also has the potential to outperform his ADP, particularly in non-PPR formats where his lack of pass-game prowess isn't as big of a deal.

Which under-the-radar WRs are worthy of late-round darts?

Trades and late free-agent signings are always capable of throwing a wrench into future depth-chart projections, but the following WRs appear to boast these three desirable traits.

Starting job in three-WR sets
2. Good-to-great QB
3. Solid enough track record of success as a pro

The Cardinals possess two of these WRs in Michael Wilson and Greg Dortch, who are expected to flank No. 4 overall pick Marvin Harrison Jr. in three-WR sets. QB Kyler Murray boasts 4,000-yard and 30-TD upside, so it'd make sense if two of his top four pass-game options flirt with some boom outcomes in the shootout-friendly NFC West.

Meanwhile, Ravens WR Rashod Bateman hasn't exactly lived up to his first-round hype, but Baltimore still felt good enough to sign him to a two-year extension worth up to $16.75 million. The departure of Odell Beckham Jr. and the decision to not use a Day 1 or 2 pick on the position seemingly cements Bateman as the team's lead option on the outside.

While Browns WR Elijah Moore didn't exactly live up to his gaudy preseason hype in 2023, he did rack up 104 targets in essentially 16 games and could continue to be this passing game's No. 2 WR depending on how Jerry Jeudy transitions to life in Cleveland. Still just 24 years old, Moore is still the same player who posted overall WR4 production in the final six games of his rookie season.

Detroit's passing game flows through Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta first, but that doesn't mean complementary options Jameson Williams and, to a lesser extent, Kalif Raymond won't get in on the fun. Don't underestimate "Jamo" finally living up to his first-round hype with Josh Reynolds (64 targets, 70.6% snaps in 2023) now in Denver.

Saints WR Rashid Shaheed leads the entire NFL in yards per target (11.1) among all players with at least 100 pass-game opportunities over the past two seasons. While Chris Olave projects to be the No. 1 option in New Orleans, Shaheed's blend of dynamic YAC and field-stretching ability make him an intriguing late-round option at the position.

And finally, while the Rams prioritized Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in their passing game last season, that didn't stop No. 3 WR Demarcus Robinson from posting PPR WR20, WR23, WR25, WR15 and WR25 finishes, respectively, in his final five full regular season games of 2023. Their decision to not add another WR via free agency and to wait until Round 6 to draft one leaves the 30-year-old Robinson as Matthew Stafford's projected No. 3 pass-game target again. That's not bad for someone likely to be drafted outside of fantasy's top 200 picks come August.