How To Fix The Raiders
The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Who knows, maybe an NFL GM will read this and realize those fantasy nerds aren’t so crazy after all – we all want the same thing, more points and more wins!!!
How To Fix The Raiders
Jan 7, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Jarrett Stidham (3) hands off to running back Josh Jacobs (28) during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Team Summary
2022-23 was another disappointing, dysfunctional season for the Raiders. The team entered the year with playoff aspirations in what was supposed to be the best division in football. The Raiders reunited Derek Carr with college teammate Davante Adams, giving the team an abundance of weapons on the offensive side of the ball.
Of course, that’s not exactly how things played out.
The Raiders offense was respectable – they finished 12th in points and yards per game – but they weren’t nearly as explosive as expected. They also weren’t good enough to overcome the team’s subpar defense, which finished the season 31st in defensive DVOA.
The Raiders also brought their typical mix of off-the-field shenanigans to the party. Even though the players claim that head coach Josh McDaniels never lost the locker room, there was a report that ownership would’ve fired him if they could afford to do it. They’re still paying Jon Gruden a ton of money not to coach the team, so the Raiders simply don’t have the cash to pay another coach to go away.
All of that paints a pretty bleak outlook heading into the offseason, but the Raiders are in a position to hit the refresh button. While McDaniels isn’t going anywhere, the rest of the roster could look vastly different next season.
Fantasy Fixer Recommendations
Blow It Up at Quarterback
The writing is on the wall for Carr in Las Vegas. He’s been the team’s starter since being drafted out of Fresno State in 2014, and he’s given the team solid production at the position. He made three Pro Bowls from 2015 through 2017, and he even finished in the top three of the MVP voting in 2016. He has been an above-average starter for most of his career, and it’s hard to find good quarterbacks. If you don’t believe me, just ask someone like the Jets, who have been searching for a quarterback for the better part of four decades.
Still, it’s hard to argue that getting rid of Carr is anything but a win for the franchise.
For starters, Carr’s play declined significantly in 2022-23. Despite having a legit No. 1 receiver in Adams, Carr averaged just 6.7 adjusted yards per attempt. That was his worst mark since 2017-18, and his 14 interceptions were tied for a career-high. Ultimately, he finished 27th out of 39 qualifiers at the position in terms of Pro Football Focus grade.
Even when Carr was playing his best, he struggled to get the Raiders into the postseason. He did it just twice in his nine years as the team’s starter, and they exited in the first round on both occasions.
Las Vegas Raiders Derek Carr (4) prepares to hand the ball off during the first half against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, PA on December 24, 2022. Pittsburgh Steelers Vs Las Vegas Raiders Week 16
However, the biggest issue with Carr is his contract. One of the easiest ways to be a poor to mediocre football team is by paying an average quarterback star-level money. Carr had the ninth-highest cap hit at the QB position in 2022-23, and he will cost the Raiders nearly $35M against the cap if he stays on the books for next season. That is simply too much money for a player of his caliber.
Of the top 10 quarterbacks in terms of cap hit this season, only four of their teams made the postseason. Those teams were the Chiefs, Vikings, Ravens, and Cowboys. The Ravens and Vikings both exited in the first round, while the Cowboys were gone shortly after. Only the Chiefs are still standing, and that would likely be the case even if they were paying Patrick Mahomes $100M a year.
Ultimately, paying anyone but a truly elite option at the position is a great way to end up with a roster devoid of top-end talent.
By moving on from Carr, it puts the Raiders in a position where they can rebuild the rest of the roster around a young passer. If they get lucky with the right signal caller, they can turn things around really quickly. It might not feel like it after last season, but they might be closer to winning a Super Bowl now than they were at the start of last year.
Let Josh Jacobs Walk
Jacobs was one of the lone bright spots for the Raiders this season. He blossomed into one of the best running backs in football, averaging a career-best 4.9 yards per carry. He led the league in a variety of stats, including touches, yards per game, and yards from scrimmage. Jacobs finished as the No. 1 running back per PFF, and he was rewarded with a spot on the All-Pro First Team.
With that in mind, the Raiders’ decision not to exercise Jacobs’ fifth-year option was clearly a mistake. However, they shouldn’t compound that mistake by making another one.
Jacobs is likely looking at a significant pay increase this offseason, but the Raiders should not be the team giving him a contract. Just like paying a mediocre quarterback is often a mistake, paying a running back of any caliber is an easy way to sink a team.
There were nine running backs that had a cap hit of at least $10M in 2022-23, and only three of those teams made the playoffs. One of them was the 49ers, who were in a position that allowed them to spend for a luxury item in Christian McCaffrey.
The other two teams were the Cowboys and Bengals, and you could argue that both of those teams would be better off without their high-priced running backs. The Cowboys are undoubtedly better with Tony Pollard playing over Ezekiel Elliott, while the Bengals’ offense looked basically identical when Samaje Perine was starting over Joe Mixon.
Running back is easily the most replaceable position in football, and even when you do have a stud, they fall off very quickly. No one thought Elliott was a bad running back when he signed his extension with the Cowboys, but he’s already lost a step at just 27 years old. Jacobs will turn 25 at the start of next season, and there’s no guarantee he’s the same player moving forward.
The team used a fourth-round pick on Zamir White in the 2022 NFL Draft, presumably to serve as Jacobs’ replacement. He brings elite athleticism to the position, blazing a 4.40 40-yard dash at the combine. That puts him in the 96th percentile at the position.
It may be tempting to try to bring Jacobs back – especially if they go with a young quarterback – but they should stick to the plan they started last offseason.
Utilize Your Cap Space
As things currently stand, the Raiders are set to hit the offseason with just under $18.5M in cap space. That isn’t a ton, but it would still put them ninth in terms of available cap space next season.
However, they could free up a ton of additional salary by releasing Carr. Cutting him before February 15th would save the team $29.25M. That would bring their total cap space to approximately $47.5M, which would be the fourth-most in the league.
The team could always do some additional juggling, but regardless, they should have plenty of room to work with in free agency.
It’s pretty clear where that money should be addressed. Even without Carr, the team still has plenty of talent on the offensive side. Adams, Hunter Renfrow, and Darren Waller are a very respectable top three, and their offensive line is good enough. They have a pair of strong offensive tackles – including one stud in Kolton Miller – and while they might need an upgrade on the interior, they’re good enough to survive.
The defense is the big issue. They have one real stud in pass-rusher Maxx Crosby, who finished as the No. 4 edge defender per PFF in 2022-23. Andrew Billings and Denzel Perryman also stand out as capable defenders, but the rest of the roster could use an upgrade.
Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) runs to the sidelines after picking up a fumbled ball from Jacksonville Jaguars running back JaMycal Hasty (22) during early first quarter action. The Jacksonville Jaguars hosted the Las Vegas Raiders at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, FL Sunday November 6, 2022. The Jaguars trailed 20 to 10 at the end of the first half. [Bob Self/Florida Times-Union] Jki 110622 Bs Jaguars Vs R 37
Fortunately, there are plenty of quality defenders set to hit free agency this offseason. They could look to grab a premier pass-rusher to pair with Crosby, or they could grab a couple of players for their secondary. The Raiders’ pass coverage was their biggest weakness last season, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA. James Bradberry, Jamel Dean, and Cameron Sutton all stand out as upgrades at cornerback, while Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jessie Bates, and Jordan Poyer are options at safety.
Additionally, the Raiders have the No. 7 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, and they should be in prime position to add an impact defender with that pick. There should be at least two quarterbacks drafted before the Raiders get on the clock – possibly three – and arguably the four best non-quarterback prospects are all pass-rushers. The team won’t be able to secure Will Anderson Jr. without trading up, but someone like Myles Murphy or Tyree Wilson should be there for the taking.
Outside of Crosby, no one on the Raiders had more than 4.5 sacks last season. Adding a bookend pass-rusher on the other side of Crosby and a few other defenders in free agency would make this unit far more formidable in 2023-24.
