How to Fix the Saints
The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. LaMarca is here to take on our next project, the Saints...
Team Summary
The Saints weren’t terrible in 2022-23, finishing with a 7-10 record, but their outlook is still pretty bleak. They’re still looking for the guy to replace Drew Brees, they lost their first-round pick, and they have the least cap flexibility in the league.
The Saints do have some nice pieces on their roster, but they’re far from one of the most talented teams in the league. For too long, the team has looked for the “quick fix” during the offseason and simply kicked the can down the road.
That doesn’t give them a ton of flexibility heading into the offseason, but there are a few things they can do to address the situation.
Will it be enough to get them back into the playoffs?
That remains to be seen, but they do benefit from playing in the weakest division in football. With Tom Brady officially hanging up his cleats, the coast is clear for the Saints to get back to the top of the NFC South standings.
Fantasy Fixer Recommendations
1. Address the Quarterback Situation
For 15 years, the Saints were the envy of basically every other team at the quarterback position. They had Brees, who led the team to nine playoff appearances – and one Super Bowl victory – during his tenure as the Saints’ starter.
He had 12 Pro Bowl nods, two Offensive Player of the Year awards, and generally gave the team elite production and stability at the most important position in the league.
However, things have not been the same since Brees – and, to a lesser extent, Sean Payton – left New Orleans. They’ve had five different players start at quarterback over the past two years, alternating between Jameis Winston, Trevor Seimian, Andy Dalton, and Taysom Hill as the preferred option.
Nov 6, 2022; Jacksonville, Florida, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr (4) looks to throw during the first half against the Jacksonville Jaguars at TIAA Bank Field. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports
As the old saying goes, if you have multiple quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks.
The team hoped that Winston would be the guy, but a combination of poor health and poor production means his days in New Orleans are likely numbered. The team can save $4.4M against the salary cap by cutting him after June 1st, and with New Orleans needing every dollar possible, they will likely exercise that option.
Hill has actually fared pretty well when given the opportunity to start, racking up a 7-2 record, but the team seems unwilling to give him a chance to win the job long-term. He seems more likely to continue to be used as a hybrid player, logging snaps all over the field and on special teams.
So where can they go moving forward?
The team was interested in acquiring Derek Carr, but Carr was reportedly unwilling to accept a trade to New Orleans. They could still come to an agreement if the Raiders release him, but that seems pretty unlikely.
That could be a blessing in disguise for the Saints. I highlighted why Carr shouldn’t be the Raiders starter in their Fantasy Fixers column, and all the same issues apply to the Saints.
Unless he’s willing to take a massive reduction in salary, Carr is simply not worth the type of money he has commanded in recent years.
The other big rumor is that they could be a destination for Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers have already stated that Garoppolo will not be a part of their organization next season, and he’s a bit more intriguing than Carr.
He doesn’t get a ton of credit playing in an elite 49ers system, but Garoppolo was really good when he was on the field last season. He ranked third at the position in terms of Expected Points Added per play last season (EPA/play), trailing only Patrick Mahomes and Tua Tagovailoa. One of those players won the MVP award, while the other was in the conversation before getting injured.
If the Saints can get Garoppolo at a discount, he should give them their best starter at the position since Brees.
The Saints could also explore the idea of drafting a quarterback at the back end of the first round. They lost their first-round pick as part of a trade with the Eagles in 2022, but they did manage to secure the No. 29 pick as part of the compensation for Payton going to Denver.
That’s not going to give them a shot at one of the consensus top three quarterback prospects – Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, and Will Levis – but perhaps they could get their hands on Anthony Richardson.
He turned in a fantastic season at Florida, particularly as a runner, and is ranked 19th overall in CBS Sports prospect rankings.
If they can’t get Richardson, Hendon Hooker would be an interesting consolation prize. He was one of the best players in college football this season, albeit as a 25-year-old senior. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Hooker go in the first round – Brandon Weeden was a first-round QB at 28 years old in 2012 – but the Saints could possible scoop him up on Day 2.
Regardless, until the Saints find their replacement for Brees, the Saints are going to struggle to compete on a yearly basis.
2. Stop Running Alvin Kamara
When Kamara entered the NFL, he seemed like the perfect modern-day running back. He was efficient on the ground, averaging at least 4.6 yards per carry in his first four seasons, and he was a prolific touchdown scorer. He scored 31 total touchdowns in his first two seasons, and he led the league with 21 scores in 2020-21.
However, Kamara’s biggest skill was his ability to catch balls out of the backfield. He averaged 81.5 receptions over his first four seasons, and he was routinely one of the most frequently-targeted running backs in the league.
Things have changed over the past two years.
He logged 67 targets in 13 games in 2021-22, and he followed that up with 77 targets in 14 games this season. He responded with a career-low 32.7 receiving yards per game, and without the benefit of his elite receiving numbers, Kamara is starting to look like just another guy at a position with tons of viable options.
He finished the year as just the No. 32 RB per Pro Football Focus after racking up top-seven finishes in three of his first four years.
November 27, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara (41) after the game against the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports.
The Saints are stuck with Kamara, who currently has a cap hit of more than $16M for next year. The Saints can restructure that contract to open up some additional space, but they are not going to be able to move on from him before the start of the season.
It’s possible that Kamara is past his prime, but the team’s game plan since losing Brees is simply not a good way to utilize his skill set. They’ve increased his rushing responsibilities over the past two years, and Kamara’s efficiency has plummeted. Running the ball in general, isn’t as efficient as passing the ball, and it doesn’t help if your running back is averaging less than four yards per carry.
The Saints still lean on Kamara pretty heavily in the passing game – he ranked third at the position with an 18.3% target share last season – but they should veer even heavier into the pass in 2023-24. Having a different quarterback should hopefully help, but the team ranked just 26th in pass rate over expectation last year.
It doesn’t matter who is under center next season; handing the ball directly to Kamara is simply not a good enough answer on offense.
Get Out Of Salary Cap Hell
The Saints' philosophy when it comes to managing the salary cap in recent years has been to let the future Saints handle it. By converting salaries and restructuring contracts at every opportunity, the Saints managed to build championship-level rosters while Brees was at quarterback.
It’s time to finally pay the piper.
Let’s be real. There’s nothing that the Saints can do this offseason that is going to make them legitimate title contenders. They can possibly make the playoffs in a very weak division, but they’re just not getting past the top teams in football.
With that in mind, they need to use this opportunity to get out of salary cap hell.
The Saints enter this offseason more than $57M over the projected salary cap. That’s the worst mark in the league. They can continue to do the same things that they’ve done in the past – restructure salaries, convert guaranteed money to bonuses, release players where they can – but it’s still not going to make a huge difference.
If I were running the team, I’d be looking to use the upcoming season to try to get my balance sheet right.
Try to unload some of your more expensive options, particularly guys like Cameron Jordan, Marshon Lattimore, and Ryan Ramczyk. Not only will that do wonders for their cap situation in the future, but they could acquire assets that would be helpful when the team is potentially ready to contend again. If they fully bottom out, having a premium draft pick in 2024 isn’t the worst thing, either.
Will the Saints actually go that route? Probably not.
They can free up a ton of additional space by going down the same path that they always have, but that’s just going to leave them in a worse spot next off-season.
Ultimately, it’s time to put the big boy pants on and address this situation once and for all.
