NFL Injury Update. What to Watch for Fantasy Football.
Halfway through a fantasy draft, and you can’t believe it. How could this stud player still be available? Are your friends that stupid? Or do they know something you don’t?
Oh well, draft timers exist for a reason—better just take him before you miss out on this great value.
One problem: That player is currently injured and you forgot. This has likely happened to anyone with even a few years of experience in fantasy; monitoring—and understanding—the health of hundreds of players across 32 teams, 365 days a year, isn’t the simplest task in the world.
Good news: What follows is a breakdown of every fantasy-relevant player whose 2022 ended because of an injury. Not every player heals the same, but general recovery timelines exist for a reason, and at a minimum, this will help all of us more reasonably recognize the level of risk associated with some of these actively banged-up players.
The idea that some players are more injury-prone than others is largely a lie; that said, there’s certainly a difference between someone being considered injury-prone and someone being actively injured.
I’ll use the following scale to measure my personal 2023 fantasy concern:
- 0-1: Not at all concerned about the injury impacting them in 2023
- 2-3: Tentatively expected to start the season fully healthy
- 4-5: Not ideal, but at least seems like things should be fine if recovery goes as planned
- 6-8: Could be limited to start the season and/or it wouldn’t be surprising if they miss a game or two
- 9-10: Actively expecting them to miss at least a few games
Special thanks to ESPN and The Football Database for injury-related information, as well as fantastic real-life injury experts/Twitter follows Dr. Edwin Porras and Dr. Jeff Mueller.
Quarterback
Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (knee)
Reportedly ahead of schedule in his recovery per team owner Michael Bidwill, but Bidwell did state, “I think (his return) is going to be earlier than this midseason, so hopefully, it’s toward the beginning of the season.”
Good news: Murray suffered a clean ACL tear with no damage to other ligaments in his knee. Still, Dr. Porras suggests that his recovery will be at least 9 months and potentially 10 to 11 months before he’s rushing like normal. Dr. Mueller also noted that we might not see his rushing upside return until late 2023 or 2024.
Kyler is far from a guarantee to be on the field in September given his surgery date was January 4, 2023, and we might not see his usual electric self for some time beyond that.
2023 concern: 9/10
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson (knee)
There was a bit of protest from Jackson's own teammates and the media alike when he didn't feel healthy enough to suit up against the Bengals in the wild card round despite having nearly a month and a half to get right. Still, Dr. Porras noted that this 4- to 6-week recovery “always seemed to make sense.”
Jackson's own prognosis in January was as follows:
"I want to give you all an update as I am in the recovery process. I’ve suffered a PCL grade 2 sprain on the borderline of a strain 3. There is still inflammation surrounding my knee and my knee remains unstable. I’m still in good spirits, as I continue with treatments on the road to recovery. I wish I could be out there with my guys more than anything but I can’t give a 100% of myself to my guys and fans I’m still hopeful we still have a chance.”
The offseason should afford Jackson more than enough time to get back to 100%; the reason why he's in this column is more so due to the madness that is his current trade market.
Perhaps the reason why teams are so hesitant to sign up for a former MVP still very much in his prime is that the injury is worse than we know? Hardly something to hang our hat on, but worth monitoring until pristine health is confirmed either way.
2023 concern: 2/10
Chargers QB Justin Herbert (shoulder)
Underwent surgery to repair the labrum in his left shoulder (non-throwing); he’s fully expected to be cleared for the team’s offseason program in the spring.
Herbert also dealt with fractured rib cartilage last season, but that also isn’t expected to impact his 2023 availability. Dr. Mueller doesn’t believe there’s any real concern here long-term.
2023 concern: 2/10
Dec 26, 2022; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) throws a pass to warm up before the game against the Indianapolis Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Eagles (2022 Falcons) QB Marcus Mariota (knee)
Underwent a procedure for a chronic knee injury after the Falcons benched him in favor of Desmond Ridder. Note that Mariota hadn’t been listed on the injury report prior to the decision.
The procedure isn’t considered overly serious and normally only sidelines a player for four to six weeks.
2023 concern: 2/10
Rams QB Matthew Stafford (neck)
Stafford himself said he’s “really confident” that he’ll be “ready to go” in 2023 and won’t retire. A spinal cord contusion on top of multiple concussions is far from ideal, although the decision to end Stafford’s season early certainly seemed at least somewhat due to the porous Rams having little to play for in December.
Then again, one of Matthew Berry’s 23 interesting things he heard from the combine: “Asking about Matthew Stafford, I was told, ‘The guy could barely throw last year. Retirement is still not out of the question.’”
2023 concern: 6/10
Titans QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle)
Had "tightrope" ankle surgery in late December with the hope of returning for Week 18, but the Titans ultimately had to roll with Josh Dobbs. Multiple high-ankle sprains don’t sound fun, but Tannehill said in early January that he was on the verge of jogging.
New GM Ran Carthon said in late February that “Right now, he’s a Titan and he will be a Titan.” The injury tentatively isn’t expected to limit Tannehill in 2023, although quarterbacks do historically run less as they get older.
2023 concern: 2/10
49ers QB Brock Purdy (elbow)
Purdy’s completely torn UCL required surgery that didn’t happen until March 10th. He’ll begin throwing in three months and build up his strength from there.
Dr. Porras notes that a repair and brace would have Purdy back throwing in 4 to 5 months and potentially cleared in under 12 months. Dr. Mueller points out that the tear was bad enough to delay surgery, and Purdy’s “absolute best-case scenario” is to be ready by Week 1.
This aligns with NBC Sports’ Jennifer Lee Chan, who reports Purdy’s six-month recovery timeframe would have him fully cleared by the second week of September should everything go as planned.
Fine enough in the long term, but Trey Lance will certainly have every opportunity to work as the starter during the offseason and potentially, if not likely, into September.
2023 concern: 8/10
49ers QB Trey Lance (ankle)
The 49ers have gone on record noting Lance is expected to make a full recovery and return for organized team activities this offseason. Dr. Mueller expects Lance to be fine for offseason training and OTAs.
There was even an outside chance that Lance *could* have been back by the end of 2022, but that obviously didn’t wind up happening.
Ultimately, Lance sure seems like he’ll be in a better spot health-wise than Purdy throughout the offseason; I’m considering the 49ers’ rising third-year signal-caller a solid favorite to start in Week 1.
2023 concern: 3/10
Running Back
Bengals RB Joe Mixon (possible suspension)
A warrant was initially issued in Cincinnati for Mixon’s arrest on a count of aggravated menacing back on February 2. The case was dismissed, although there is a two-year timeline for the case to be re-filed.
Ultimately, fantasy football legal expert Drew Davenport doesn’t believe the case will be re-filed and said, “For re-draft purposes this upcoming season, he’s probably going to be alright, it’s probably a reasonable risk to take. But for dynasty purposes I’d be all the way out.”
Drew references Mixon’s muddled history as a reason to be concerned about him committing another future mistake…and on March 7 the Hamilton County Sheriff’s Office said Mixon’s home was considered part of a crime scene after an alleged shooting in his neighborhood. No charges have been filed and Mixon hasn't been named as a suspect by the Hamilton County sheriff’s office.
Still: not great, especially when the Bengals could save about $7.3 million by releasing Mixon before June 1. At least for now, there doesn’t seem to be all that much hard evidence out there that Mixon will be missing games next season.
2023 concern: 5/10
Broncos RB Javonte Williams (knee)
Tore the ACL, LCL, and PCL in his knee. While Broncos coach George Paton said Williams is “on track” for Week 1, Dr. Mueller notes this is the rising third-year back’s best-case scenario.
The worst-case scenario is a 12- to 14-month recovery with a slow ramp-up a la what J.K. Dobbins went through last season.
Beat writer reports indicate that Williams could be out “well into” the 2023 season, and Dr. Porras notes that since 2010, 5 of 13 qualified running backs with ACL and PCL tears occurring between August and November still started the next season on the PUP list.
Further hurting matters: One of Matthew Berry’s 23 interesting things he heard at the combine: “There is a VERY wide range of possibilities regarding his (Williams's) return. There is a chance he is healthy to start the year. There is a chance he misses multiple games. And there is actually a chance he misses all of next year. I was told he is currently a lot more hurt than the team is letting on publicly and that the Broncos are secretly nervous.” Not great!
2023 concern: 9/10
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle)
Underwent ankle surgery in late January. Per NFL.com: “Taylor underwent an arthroscopic debridement, a minimally invasive procedure to clean out the ankle. It was extremely successful, Taylor said, with Anderson -- whom he called, ‘the man, the legend’ -- finding no structural damage.”
Taylor didn’t put an exact timeline on his recovery, but he noted he’ll “be ready to go” for 2023. Dr. Mueller notes it won’t be necessary to fade Taylor due to injury for 2023.
2023 concern: 2/10
Nov 13, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) runs the ball against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first half at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Commanders RB Antonio Gibson (foot)
Had surgery to repair a fracture in his foot in January. Gibson has a concerning laundry list of injuries to his name over the past three seasons, although coach Ron Rivera said, “There’s a good chance he (Gibson) could be out and participating in the offseason program.”
Gibson could see a heightened pass-game role following the release of J.D. McKissic (neck) after a failed physical.
2023 concern: 4/10
Cowboys RB Tony Pollard (ankle/fibula)
Underwent surgery in late January to repair ligaments from a high ankle sprain. This “tightrope” procedure is the same surgery that Ryan Tannehill and Cooper Kupp underwent recently; Pollard is reportedly expected to be at full strength well before training camp.
Though he is also recovering from a fractured fibula, that also tentatively isn’t expected to influence the fifth-year RB’s 2023 availability.
2023 concern: 3/10
Jets RB Breece Hall (knee)
Hall tore his ACL but has minimal meniscus damage, per NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. Hall said at the end of the season that he was ahead of schedule in his rehab.
Dr. Porras says to expect a very similar recovery to what Saquon Barkley had in 2021 (hopefully without the fluke re-aggravation). Dr. Mueller notes that Hall is trending toward being a full go by Week 1; he’s far more concerned about Javonte’s recovery.
The first few weeks have the potential to be annoying, but Hall certainly seems to be on track to get back to his usual explosive self by October.
2023 concern: 6/10
Saints RB Alvin Kamara (possible suspension)
Recently released footage sure doesn’t seem to paint Kamara in the brightest light regarding his ongoing assault case. Another video appears to show Kamara confirming/bragging that he connected clean on the victim’s jaw. Not great!
Fantasy football legal expert/real life criminal defense attorney Drew Davenport made a helpful Twitter thread explaining the specifics of the case and notes, “Things are dicey for Kamara’s upcoming season and I’m still out in all formats.”
Davenport considers the case complicated enough that a settlement seems unlikely and ultimately predicts Kamara will be suspended for four to eight games of the 2023 season.
2023 concern: 10/10
Eagles (2022 Seahawks) RB Rashaad Penny (ankle)
Suffered a deltoid ligament tear along with his high ankle sprain and fractured fibula. Penny is expected to make a full recovery, but his laundry list of career injuries certainly isn’t ideal.
Seahawks coach Pete Carroll said Penny is “making really good progress” and specifically noted: “He was hoping if we went deep in the playoffs that he would have a chance, that’s how positive he is about it. But the ankle repair he had is intricate, the high ankle thing where they’re tying stuff together – they’ve got some really cool technology that makes him stable and ready to come back.”
Penny has since signed with Philly this offseason, but prior to that, Carroll confirmed that he expected Penny back in time for camp. Hell, the RB himself said he's cleared for all offseason workouts. The veteran back sure looks to at least be entering 2023 healthy.
2023 concern: 2/10
Texans RB Dameon Pierce (ankle)
Missed the end of 2022 with a high-ankle injury, but seems to be doing just fine currently.
Speaking in early January, Pierce said, “It was an administrative decision to put me on IR so I could get into my offseason program heading into next year. Just making sure I was ready and healthy enough to get a jumpstart on my offseason program, so I’m not off timing-wise when it comes to strength and conditioning, vacation time and all that.”
The rising second-year back even said he could have played in the wild card round if the Texans had a game (lol).
2023 concern: 1/10
Vikings RB Dalvin Cook (shoulder)
Underwent surgery on February 14 to repair a nagging shoulder injury. Dr. Mueller said that the early date of the surgery should allow Cook to be a full go by Week 1.
The Vikings themselves have gone on record saying Cook “is expected to make a full recovery prior to the start of the regular season.”
2023 concern: 4/10
Wide Receiver
Bears WR Darnell Mooney (ankle)
Currently rehabbing from surgery on his ankle. Dr. Mason West and Dr. Michael Rishner spoke specifically about Mooney’s rehab.
When Mooney’s very own doctor was asked if Mooney would be on the field day one, snap one: “Yes. Absolutely. 100%. He’ll be back for Week 1. He’s doing really well and I don’t see anything slowing him down. He’s going to definitely be ready for Week 1.” Sounds good to me.
2023 concern: 2/10
Oct 30, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys cornerback Trevon Diggs (7) and Chicago Bears wide receiver Darnell Mooney (11) in action during the game between the Dallas Cowboys and the Chicago Bears at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
Bills WR Jamison Crowder (ankle)
Fractured his ankle and missed all but four games of 2022, yet managed to recover enough to the point that he returned to practice in January and seemed to have a real shot at suiting up in the divisional round before ultimately getting ruled out.
It’s certainly possible the soon-to-be 30-year-old veteran has already put together the best years of his career, but don’t expect this injury to hinder him in 2023.
2023 concern: 1/10
Broncos WR Tim Patrick (knee)
Certainly seems confident in his recovery. Even better news: Broncos GM George Paton said, “He’s running now. He’s jogging. I don’t know when he’ll be back, in terms of the offseason programs, but next season, certainly, he’ll be 100 percent.”
Any recovery from a torn ACL requires a moderate level of concern, but Patrick tentatively looks set to enter Week 1 all systems go.
2023 concern: 4/10
Cardinals WR Rondale Moore (groin)
Said he had both sides of his groin surgically repaired for a sports hernia and also had his pinky repaired. Ouch!
Still, an actual medical study on the topic states that out of 56 applicable players with sports hernia surgeries, “The majority (65%) of NFL players in this study underwent AP surgery in the offseason, typically just after the previous season…Every player who returned to play after surgery in the offseason did so during the first game of the subsequent season.”
Of course, the dual nature of the surgery and added pinky issue does slightly complicate matters.
2023 concern: 5/10
Chargers WR Mike Williams (back)
Back fractures don’t sound fun, but Williams was only expected to miss a few weeks and even got listed as questionable ahead of the team’s wild card loss to the Jaguars.
Infamous for crashing to the ground like a bag of rocks whenever put in a contested catch situation, Williams at least doesn’t seem to be at risk of missing time next season due to coach Brandon Staley’s decision to play his starters in a meaningless Week 18 game against the Broncos.
2023 concern: 1/10
Chiefs WR Mecole Hardman (groin)
Managed to play 15 snaps in the AFC Championship after missing 10 games with a pelvic injury. It’s not ideal that he aggravated the injury, but he did undergo successful surgery on February 21 and is only expected to miss eight weeks.
Wide receivers with an adductor injury only missed an average of 1.5 games in-season from 2017 to 2022; don’t expect Hardman to be at risk of missing any time next season.
2023 concern: 2/10
Cowboys WR Michael Gallup (knee/ankle)
Spent last offseason recovering from ACL surgery and went under the knife again in late January to repair his right knee and ankle. Good news: It appeared to be more of a clean-up procedure than anything else.
Specifically, “Gallup underwent a minimally invasive meniscus repair and an ankle clean-up, and he is expected to be cleared for all football activities for the start of the team’s offseason program in April.”
Don’t be surprised if Gallup looks a bit better in 2023 than he did while attempting to get back to his usual self in 2022.
2023 concern: 2/10
Giants WRs Sterling Shepard (knee) and Wan’Dale Robinson (knee)
Both recovering from torn ACLs. Shepard’s occurred in September compared to November for Robinson, but it’d make sense if the 22-year-old recovers faster than the 30-year-old.
Dr. Mueller thinks Robinson might be ready for Week 1, but unlikely at full snaps. Dr. Porras also believes Week 1 to be a realistic return date for Robinson.
2023 concern: 7/10
Jaguars WR Christian Kirk (knee)
Suffered a nasty-looking injury in the Jaguars’ divisional round loss to the Chiefs, but there was no structural damage and he’s expected to be just fine for training camp and offseason activities.
2023 concern: 1/10
Rams WR Cooper Kupp (ankle)
Underwent “tightrope” ankle surgery, but provided a good update in January: “The trainers, at least – I’ve never done this before – but the trainers all feel good about where we’re at, feel like we’re making good time on things…Things seem to be going really well.”
There isn’t an exact timetable for his return, albeit OTAs and minicamp don’t seem to be out of the question. It’d be surprising to see this issue hinder Kupp ahead of next season.
2023 concern: 2/10
Nov 6, 2022; Tampa, Florida, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp (10) runs for a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Rams WR Allen Robinson (foot)
Underwent season-ending foot surgery after playing 10 games in 2022. Dr. Jesse Morse believes A-Rob will be cleared for phase two of OTAs after getting his stress fracture fixed.
Robinson actually suffered the same injury in his other foot all the way back in 2014. That issue caused him to miss the season’s final 6 games, but he had November surgery and ultimately had a career year in 2015 with an 80-1400-14 receiving line while playing in all 16 games.
2023 concern: 2/10
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (foot)
GM Eric DeCosta said Bateman is “doing well” in March, although the rising third-year receiver had some choice words in response to DeCosta’s negative comments surrounding the team’s wide receiver room.
While Lisfrancs are never fun, Dr. Mueller does anticipate that Bateman will be fine for the 2023 season, which echoes coach John Harbaugh’s post-surgery thoughts from late November.
All good news; here’s to hoping Bateman manages to stay healthy after playing in just 18 games over his first two seasons.
2023 concern: 3/10
Ravens WR Devin Duvernay (foot)
Broke his foot in December and was expected to be out for at least two months. This certainly seems to put Duvernay on a great pace to be just fine for the offseason and beyond.
2023 concern: 2/10
Ravens WR Demarcus Robinson (sports hernia)
Underwent sports hernia surgery in February. It’s not expected to significantly impact his availability during offseason activities.
2023 concern: 2/10
Saints WR Michael Thomas (toe)
Turf toe ended Thomas’s 2022 season after just three games. Dr. David J. Chao says the surgery carries a minimum three-month recovery timeline.
It’s unclear if Thomas’s pre-surgery “complication” changes that timeline, but either way, the 30-year-old receiver has now played just 10 games over the past three seasons combined.
This history is certainly concerning; just realize his 2022 injury doesn’t seem to carry the sort of timeline to specifically impact 2023 availability.
2023 concern: 5/10
Steelers WR Calvin Austin (Lisfranc)
The Steelers’ pint-sized speedster missed all of 2022 due to a Lisfranc fracture. The team has been optimistic about his recovery, and the offseason allows plenty of time for that.
Austin himself said that he only anticipated the recovery taking a “month and a half to two months.”
2023 concern: 3/10
Tight End
Cardinals TE Zach Ertz (knee)
Had surgery to repair both his ACL and MCL. Naturally, Ertz himself said he hopes to be ready for Week 1, but at 32 years of age, that’s certainly not a guarantee.
The fact that this wasn’t “just” an ACL tear is worrisome; it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ertz’s early-season availability up in the air.
2023 concern: 8/10
Falcons TE Kyle Pitts (knee)
Missed the final six games of 2022 due to a torn MCL. There haven’t been a ton of clear-cut updates here, but head coach Arthur Smith did say in February that the Falcons “feel pretty good about where he’s at,” and tight ends coach Justin Peele confirmed the rising third-year talent is “on schedule” in his recovery.
Dr. Mueller believes Pitts has minimal long-term concerns going into 2023. Dr. Porras clarified that MCL healing is relatively easier to handle than ACL because of superior blood flow to the former area of the knee (yeah, I learned some interesting shit while researching this article).
Long story short: Doc believes that Pitts will be back by the time Week 1 rolls around in 2023.
2023 concern: 4/10
Seahawks TE Will Dissly (knee)
Head coach Pete Carroll said in late February that the Seahawks don’t think Dissly needs surgery for his “unique” leg injury and the TE should be ready for training camp.
Carroll is infamous for being a bit too optimistic with his players' injury recovery; that said, the veteran TE has plenty of time this offseason to recover from his fibula fracture.
2023 concern: 5/10
Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth (knee)
His sprained MCL won’t require surgery. Freiermuth said himself in January: “A little month of rehab and I’ll be good.” There’s no concern here.
2023 concern: 1/10
