Mid-Round RBs to Target for Fantasy Football
Our approach to drafting the core positions, RBs and WRs, in best ball has changed in recent years. Elite passers are getting the nod earlier than ever before, and their stacking partners, typically WRs and TEs, are along for the ride with elevated ADPs of their own.
This means that RBs are becoming value targets when we get into the middle rounds of best ball drafts.
With drafters leaning into early-WR builds it’s important to know how many RBs to select as well as what kind of RBs. Using past Best Ball Mania data, I've identified some RB archetypes and some mid-round RBs who can help advance our best ball teams in the playoffs for 2023.
Notes on Process
As usual, I started at the source for pick-by-pick data from Best Ball Mania II and III. I could calculate closing ADP (i.e., their final ADP before the season began), but I also needed to know where they finished. End-of-season (EOS) half-point PPR rankings are easy to find, so some quick Excel wizardry got me the following names.
Of course, these are just the hits. They’re the guys that ended at least 12 spots ahead in the RB ranks from their preseason ADP. For context, a 12-spot bump from an 11th-round RB translates to roughly two full rounds of picks.
But the above is just a list of names, with most unavailable at a mid-round cost this season. There had to be something separating them from the rest outside of luck. And after blending usage data from 4for4’s Player Stat Explorer, I found a few common traits.
Without question, Kenneth Walker and Josh Jacobs were outliers. Walker soared into the RB1 discussion after Rashaad Penny fractured his ankle, and the “Hall of Fame Game fiasco” for Jacobs landed him on the do-not-draft list for many. Regardless, both RBs had the ability to garner touches, which boosted their fantasy output. Of the remaining RBs, all except for Tony Pollard were above the average rate of team carries for mid-round RBs.
It seems fairly obvious that we should draft ball carriers with a three-down skillset, but red-zone usage adds another layer of opportunity that helped vault 71.4% of the sample to the top. To be fantasy producers, RBs can’t just be on the field to start drives, they also need to finish them.
Don’t forget about passing-down work. While they weren’t necessarily focal points in the passing game, these mid-round RBs averaged an 8.0% target share. Across the last two seasons of data, the outperforming RBs earned an 8.3% share, with 57.1% having accrued more than the seasonal average.
And it wasn’t just the rushers outperforming expectations. Their teams also exceeded expectations on offense overall.
The fantasy community subjectively ranks each offense given how the previous season ended as well as based on offseason moves and camp videos. Simply put, we go off vibes. However, 10 of the above 14 RBs were on teams that ended the season with a higher rank in EPA per play than the previous year. We can’t always accurately project which offenses will be good, and which will be bad.
So even if the backfield looks ambiguous, or if the offense may not be the most enticing based off the prior year, RBs with red-zone or goal-line opportunities or those who can have a passing-down role are still worth a look. With that in mind, let’s see which RBs could potentially fit these archetypes for the 2023 season.
Cam Akers
- Underdog ADP: 72.8
The oft-injured former second-round pick has yet to play a full season and is just two years removed from an Achilles tear. But while we don’t know what to expect from the Rams’ offense, we have seen what they want from Cam Akers in a thinned-out backfield.
I’ll cop to the small sample sizes, but Darrell Henderson got a similar workload in 2021 with Akers out. And it’s unlikely that sophomore Kyren Williams or sixth-round rookie Zach Evans pose much of a threat. Akers's ADP could slip a few spots following the return of Sony Michel, but Akers should still be a priority mid-round target in an efficient Sean McVay-led offense.
Rachaad White
- Underdog ADP: 84.9
The simplistic approach to Rachaad White’s mid-round potential is there is no one filling the Leonard Fournette role from last season, or at least not yet. The Buccaneers signed Chase Edmonds, but he earned six red-zone carries all of last season. Meanwhile, White was picking up more and more work as his rookie campaign progressed.
Fournette’s average snap rate fell from 72.0% to 48.0% in the second half of 2022, and we saw more and more White. As a result, White’s overall carry rate (46.9%) and target share (9.6%) exceeded the average for mid-round RB hits down the stretch. And with Fournette still unsigned, White could see even more red-zone usage in 2023.
The TB12-sized hole in Tampa Bay’s offense is creating doubt amongst drafters, as neither Baker Mayfield nor Kyle Trask is making it easier for us to trust this offense. However, the uncertainty of the Buccaneers' offense in general keeps White’s ADP in check, and he has little to no competition for touches this coming season.
James Conner
- Underdog ADP: 87.4
Arizona said goodbye to DeAndre Hopkins this offseason, and head coach Jonathan Gannon has refused to put a timeline on Kyler Murray’s return. In short, the Cardinals may start the season without their best players on offense, but that shouldn’t necessarily change how we feel about James Conner.
Two seasons ago, Conner smashed much like Jamaal Williams did last year. While in Pittsburgh in 2021, Conner saw 18 carries inside the five-yard line and converted 10 of those opportunities into TDs.
Heading into 2023, the Cardinals offense could indeed take a step back, but Conner should have a stranglehold on opportunities in this backfield. Despite misgivings about Arizona's offense overall, volume can still make Conner a strong fantasy producer.
Again, I’ll cop to using a small sample. But from that small sample of three games, the Cardinals offense ran a similar number of plays per game with Colt McCoy, as they did with Murray and still managed to get into the red zone at a similar rate.
On top of that, Conner’s target share increased with McCoy under center, which makes sense given the backup QB's lack of mobility compared to Murray. Conner's fantasy production may not be impacted much even if Murray isn't healthy enough to start the season.
The only other RBs on Arizona’s roster who earned touches last year were Corey Clement and Keaontay Ingram. The two combined for 19 carries and three targets on the season, whereas Conner hit those marks by himself in a single game…twice. I’ll bank on his volume regardless of how ugly the rest of the Cardinals roster might look in 2023.
Antonio Gibson
- Underdog ADP: 106.9
There’s no doubt that Brian Robinson impacted Antonio Gibson’s usage. As Robinson returned from injury and acclimated to the NFL, Gibson saw more snaps on special teams and less usage on offense. However, the setback wasn’t as drastic as many in the fantasy community made it out to be.
Gibson’s touches dropped by about 20% once Robinson (and his big hat) returned. But on the bright side, Gibson still maintained a near 50-50 split with Robinson down the stretch last season.
In fact, both Washington RBs were above average in red-zone carries compared to other mid-round RBs in 2022. What gives Gibson an edge was his usage as a receiver compared to Robinson's early-down work.
Eric Bieniemy’s tendencies when helping to develop Patrick Mahomes should give us a sense of optimism about Gibson’s QB, Sam Howell, and Washington's offense overall. With a hopefully more efficient Commanders offense in 2023, the value of Gibson’s touches could increase, adding further to his viability as a mid-round RB to target even splitting work with Robinson.
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