NFL Free Agency: Calvin Ridley Inks Four-Year Deal With Titans
How was your Wednesday afternoon?
Calvin Ridley’s was pretty good.
The move comes as a shock considering most reports indicated it was a two-team race featuring the Jaguars and Patriots vying for Ridley's services.
Good for Ridley on getting a bag! That said: These types of big-money free agency deals haven't exactly worked out all that great in recent years.
There's also the reality that most advanced metrics did not believe Ridley was a very good WR in 2023:
- ESPN Receiver Rating: 48 (No. 66 among qualified WRs)
- PFF Receiving Grade: 72.2 (No. 41)
- Yards per route run: 1.57 (No. 46)
- Targets per route run: 20.4% (No. 38)
It’d make sense if Ridley was dealing with some rust after missing the last season and a half of action; just realize he’ll be 30 by the time next season is over – and he left a LOT of yards and TDs on the field in 2023.
Many smart football minds have pointed out that Ridley often wasn’t used all that imaginatively in the Jaguars’ scheme, leading to lots of press coverage and difficult connections. New Titans head coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz – Ridley's pass-game coordinator in Jacksonville – have 92 million reasons to help make life easier for Ridley in 2024, and it'd make a lot of sense if this year's Titans throw the ball a helluva lot more than we ever saw under Mike Vrabel.
And yet, it remains to be seen if the team’s QB is up to the challenge.
Will Levis had some flashes last season, most notably throwing four TDs in his NFL debut … but then he only threw four additional TDs across his next eight starts combined.
Adding a receiver like Ridley should help matters, but Levis has a long way to go in order to be considered even an average NFL QB by most reputable advanced metrics:
Levis among 48 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks in 2023
- EPA per dropback: -0.033 (No. 31)
- Completion percentage over expected: -0.4% (No. 26)
- PFF pass grade: 61.6 (No. 32)
- Passer rating: 84.2 (No. 30)
- Yards per attempt: 7.1 (No. 21)
There’s time for the Titans to perhaps make a splash under center via trade. Simply trusting Levis to improve after this passing “attack” ranked 29th in yards (3,067) and TDs (14) alike last season doesn’t seem overly wise for a team that apparently has no interest in rebuilding.
Maybe Ridley settles as an affordable WR3 alongside guys like Terry McLaurin (WR33 ADP), Jordan Addison (WR36) and Christian Kirk (WR37), but anything higher could be problematic considering the potential for this passing game to be:
- Not good.
- Fairly evenly split between DeAndre Hopkins and Ridley.
Good on the Titans for at least adding the sort of weapons around Levis to hopefully find out if he can be their future signal-caller by the end of 2024. Ridley is a solid real-life addition to a team that had plenty of available cap space, but that doesn't necessarily mean a comeback WR1-level season is on the horizon.
The biggest winners from this deal in fantasy land: Christian Kirk and Evan Engram. They now profile as the team’s top-two target earners ahead of Gabe Davis and Zay Jones, who also deserve slight bumps up the ole’ fantasy ranks thanks to their expected starting roles inside of a (hopefully) ascending Trevor Lawrence-led passing attack.
Maybe the Titans will prove their high-octane free-agent spending was the right move, but remember kids: Good teams typically don’t let good players hit the open market.
