NFL Free Agency: Top Fantasy Football Wide Receivers
With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents. Using a data-driven approach, Dwain analyzes the top free agents from a fantasy football lens.
Methodology and reasoning
We will use four critical criteria to rank WRs (in order of importance):
- Target-earning ability: targets per game, target share (excluding games missed) and targets per route run (TPRR)
- Air yards: air yards per game and air yards share (excluding games missed)
- Yards per route run (YPRR)
- Age at the beginning of the 2024 season
What matters most?
In order to identify the data points that matter most for WRs in fantasy football, I researched fantasy performance since 2011 to answer two questions:
- Which non-production stats (i.e., not receptions, yards and TDs) have the strongest relationship with scoring fantasy points?
- Of those stats, which ones have staying power year-over-year (YoY)?
While production stats are great, they don’t always capture intent. If we understand which stats drive production, they should also have a strong relationship with fantasy scoring. And if they are sticky from one year to the next, that makes them valuable in projecting a player’s future output.
Of the 50-plus non-production data points I analyzed, they were the only two with a score above .450 in both areas — targets and air yards.
Additionally, these two data points held up when converting to a market share lens, which is important when forecasting a player’s role in a new offense.
YPRR didn’t score as well from a YoY perspective, but it was better than many other data points we hear touted across the industry and it correlated strongly with scoring fantasy points (which makes sense since yardage is involved). Red zone targets were considered, but the overlap with targets per game is high.
Where targets and air yards capture intent, YPRR is impacted by the quality of QB, with accuracy and timing coming into play. That makes targets and air yards better for this analysis, but YPRR can still help us layer in additional context — especially for players in lesser roles.
How does changing teams impact targets, air yards and YPRR?
Since we are evaluating players who could be wearing new laundry in 2024, it is vital to understand the dynamics in play when WRs change teams. While the same stats continued to carry the strongest relative signal, the signal lessened for players on the move.
How important is age?
Ages 26 to 27 are the apex years for WRs. When shooting for the top-end fantasy outcomes, age matters for WRs. Since 2011, we haven’t seen a WR over 32 finish inside the top-six WRs.
However, the data suggests we aren’t very good at identifying when a WR will hit the age cliff. In fact, the WRs that manage to hang around enjoy productive seasons in their age 29 to 32 seasons before things get dicier at age 33-plus.
Survivorship bias certainly plays a role in the percentage of WRs reaching 400 routes at older ages. But that is the point. When a WR’s fantasy draft value is depressed due to age, they can become valuable assets. While they might not win your league singlehandedly, the potential for a WR2 or WR3 season is still in play.
Now that we know the why behind the methodology, let’s dive into the 2024 free-agent WRs.
Free Agent WR Rankings
1. Michael Pittman Jr.
Pittman could be the next young WR after Tee Higgins to receive the franchise tag, but as of this writing, the 27-year-old WR is set to hit the open market.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers safety Antoine Winfield Jr. (31) works to push Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (11) out of bounds Sunday, Nov. 26, 2023, during a game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
Pittman had a career year in 2023, delivering his best marks in target share, TPRR, air yards share and YPRR. His target share, TPRR and air yards share were WR1-worthy, while his YPRR was at WR2 levels.
The knock on Pittman is his inability to stretch the field vertically. Only 9% of his targets came 20-plus yards downfield in 2023, well below the WR1 average of 18%. That could be hindering his air yards and YPRR slightly, and while it might keep him from ever earning a high-end WR1 finish, historical comps tell us we shouldn’t overthink it.
Based on data back to 2011, his comps averaged 17.2 points with a WR11 finish. Most of his closest comps were possession WRs.
- Keenan Allen
- Larry Fitzgerald
- Michael Thomas
- Robert Woods
While none of these WRs were known for their deep prowess, three of the four enjoyed one or more mid-range to high-end WR1 finishes during their careers.
Fantasy outlook: Pittman profiles as a mid-range to high-end WR2 in Indianapolis, assuming the Colts don’t add an early-round WR. In a pass-first offense hungry for a chain-mover, Pittman would offer mid-range WR1 upside.
2. Mike Evans
Who would have thought Baker Mayfield would be better for Evans’ fantasy production than Tom Brady? Well, that is precisely what happened with Mayfield opting to lock onto his big target rather than getting the ball to tertiary options as much as Brady.
Evans bounced back to pre-Brady levels, posting borderline WR1-worthy marks in the target earning department and YPRR while reaching the WR1 summit in air yards share.
Evans will be 31 when the 2024 campaign begins, but since 2011 age-31 WRs who reached at least 400 routes have performed at levels just under the age 27 to 28 apex. While many aging WRs migrate inside to play from the slot on shorter routes, Evans is still getting things done on the outside, pushing the vertical boundary.
Fantasy outlook: Evans still profiles as a mid-range to high-end WR2 despite his age. If he stays in Tampa Bay with Mayfield, he will once again carry WR1 upside. If Evans changes teams, he needs a team willing to use him as more than a go-route specialist. With defenses focused more than ever on taking away big plays, Evans could see fewer targets from QBs less willing than Mayfield to push the ball downfield.
3. Calvin Ridley
Ridley didn’t live up to his average draft position (ADP) in 2023, with only 13.4 fantasy points per game. Ultimately, Trevor Lawrence didn’t get things going until late in the season, and the competition for targets was high with Christian Kirk and Evan Engram.
Jan 7, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Calvin Ridley (0) reacts after scoring a touchdown against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
However, despite his WR27 finish, Ridley still delivered a WR2-worthy target share and a WR1-level air yards share.
Considering the target competition, those are respectable numbers. It is rare to see a target share of 26%-plus in an offense with as many weapons as the Jaguars. On plays without Kirk, Ridley’s target share reached WR1-territory (26%), with his air yards share holding steady (37%).
Fantasy outlook: Ridley still has the talent profile of a WR2 in fantasy, but he needs a change of scenery. Kirk and Engram chew up the softer targets inside against linebackers and safeties, leaving Ridley working downfield into more coverage. In Jacksonville, Ridley is a WR3.
4. Marquise Brown
Fantasy drafters knew the Cardinals' offense could be problematic in 2023 thanks to the early-season QB woes, but Brown outdid himself, averaging only 9.6 points per game (WR50).
However, the 27-year-old WR was in line with his career averages in target share, with a WR2-worthy 22% and reached WR1 territory in air yards share. His 1.25 YPRR was a career-low, but QB play was a major contributing factor.
Unfortunately, the return of Kyler Murray didn’t give Brown a boost. Instead, Trey McBride became the focal point of the offense with a 25% target share. On plays with Murray, Brown mustered a lowly 9% target share.
Fantasy outlook: Brown has a history of teasing fantasy managers with a WR2-worthy talent profile but only has one top-24 points-per-game finish in five seasons. That makes him hard to endorse as a WR2, so let's call him a high-end WR3 profile for our sanity and see if he can surprise us.
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Other Notable Free Agents
Odell Beckham Jr.
Beckham was never able to carve out a full-time role after his first few weeks in Baltimore. However, his 21% TPRR and 1.92 YPRR tell us there could still be a WR3 campaign left in the tank. Despite a 59% route participation, he still posted a 25% air yards share. If a team is looking for a WR that can threaten all areas of the field, OBJ looks like the best option outside of the big names.
Curtis Samuel
Samuel has produced two WR4 finishes in two healthy campaigns with Washington. He has primarily operated from slot and backfield, attacking the underneath coverage. That could make him WR3-worthy if he lands on a pass-first offense with a quality QB — especially if the target competition isn’t fierce.
Rashid Shaheed
Shaheed dramatically increased his playing time in 2023, registering a 71% route participation, excluding games missed. He might never reach high-end target share marks but offers upside in the air yards department if he lands a full-time gig thanks to his healthy 14.6 average depth of target (aDOT). He profiles as a boom-bust WR5.
Gabe Davis
Despite playing with Josh Allen on a pass-first offense that was thirsty for a No. 2 option behind Stefon Diggs, Davis was never able to capitalize. He delivered WR65, WR72, WR37 and WR51 finishes in PPR formats. His underlying target-earning profile paints a similar picture, with his 14% TPRR falling well outside WR3 territory.
It is hard to imagine him landing in a better spot than Buffalo, even if a team sees value in his ability to stretch the field. Davis profiles as a boom-bust WR5 profile.
Darnell Mooney
Mooney wasn’t good in 2023, posting bad marks across all the categories that matter the most. However, he will only be 27 years old and delivered a WR1-worthy air yards share (32%) and WR3-worthy TPRR (22%) in 2021.
Noah Brown
Brown registered a career-high 1.94 YPRR playing with C.J. Stroud in Houston. We typically don’t see breakouts from WRs with six seasons already under their belt, but Brown didn’t get on the field much for his first four campaigns.
Kendrick Bourne
Bourne was on his way to a top-36 finish before an injury cost him his final eight games. His 23% TPRR was WR2-worthy, and his 1.73 YPRR was borderline WR3 material. However, his career-high TPRR before 2023 was 17%, and it is hard to find a more WR-needy team than last year’s Patriots.
Tyler Boyd
Before the arrival of Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase, Boyd was a decent target earner with target shares of 22%, 23% and 20%. He was never a significant air yards contributor, but on the right team with low target competition, he could become a viable slot option again.
