Philadelphia Eagles 2023 Team Preview

Free agency and the NFL Draft have come and gone: It’s time to fully embrace the 2023 offseason by breaking down the fantasy football aspirations of each and every team before draft season truly gets underway.

What follows is a fantasy-focused breakdown of the Philadelphia Eagles, focusing on key questions like:

1. Does Jalen Hurts deserve to be the overall fantasy QB1?
2. Who will rise to the top of this muddled backfield?
3. Are both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith deserving of top-12 fantasy treatment?

Every fantasy-relevant player from the Eagles will be covered in the following paragraphs. Make sure to check out the Fantasy Life Team Preview landing page through the end of June for more all-encompassing fantasy football coverage.

Notable offseason moves

From the front office, to the coaching staff, to the roster: Every 2023 NFL team will be different than its 2022 version.

As is often the case with Super Bowl contenders, the Eagles coaching staff has some turnover to deal with. 

Both offensive coordinator Shane Steichen (Colts) and defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon (Cardinals) took head coaching jobs elsewhere, leaving rising third-year head coach Nick Sirianni with former QB coach/new OC Brian Johnson and former Seahawks associate head coach/new DC Sean Desai as his new right-hand men.

Sirianni gave up play-calling duties to Steichen during the 2021 season; it’d make sense if he simply hands the reins to Johnson, who has been with the team since 2021 and is “like family” to Hurts due to their near two-decade-long relationship.

While it’s not a given that Johnson runs the offense exactly as Steichen did, we should probably continue to expect this group to deploy a fairly balanced offense while moving down the field with a sense of urgency. Their pass-rate over expectation and pace numbers from the last three seasons are as follows: 

• 2020: +0.3 PROE (13th), 30.4 seconds/play (17th)
• 2021: -6.4% (30th), 29.3 (5th)
• 2022: -0.9% (10th), 28.9 (1st)

The Eagles’ tendency to light up the scoreboard made it look like they ran the ball more than they actually did last season; a worse performance from their defense could lead to more overall pass-game volume inside this crowded—but loaded—offense.

Additionally, the Eagles have made plenty of changes to their roster. The following QBs, RBs, WRs, and TEs have either joined or left Philly in some way, shape, or form this offseason:

• QB: Backup Gardner Minshew left for the Colts, leading to the team signing ex-Titans/Raiders/Falcons signal-caller Marcus Mariota to serve as their new real-life Alex Moran.
• RB: Longtime starter Miles Sanders got #paid by the Panthers, leading general manager Howie Roseman to 1.) sign ex-Seahawks RB Rashaad Penny to a low-guarantee one-year, $1.35 million deal, and 2.) trade a 2025 fourth-round pick and swap seventh-round selections for Lions RB D’Andre Swift.
• WR: 2022 No. 4 WR Zach Pascal signed with the Cardinals and was accordingly replaced by former Falcons WR Olamide Zaccheaus.
• TE: None.

Stanford QB Tanner McKee (Round 6) marks the only fantasy-eligible addition from the draft. Of course, the addition of third-round Alabama OT Tyler Steen provides further depth for the team’s beastly offensive front, which obviously helps everyone involved.

QB: Jalen Hurts (Ian’s QB1), Marcus Mariota (QB42)

The reigning overall QB1 in fantasy points per game (25.2), Hurts demonstrated his passing upside with an elite +2.7% completion percentage over expected (No. 5 among qualified QBs) while supplying a ridiculous rushing floor to the tune of 10.3 fantasy points per game—the second-highest mark at the position behind only Justin Fields (10.8).

The former variable is especially encouraging because Hurts has made some rather great improvements as a passer already. 

Obviously, every snap began with the ball in Hurts’s hands, but PFF’s No. 1 ranked offensive line, a consensus top-five WR duo in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, as well as stud TE Dallas Goedert certainly made life easier.

I took every team’s combined PFF rush, receiving, and blocking grades to get an idea of the league’s best supporting casts. The top-five groups from 2022 are as follows:

1. Eagles (81.9 combined grade)
2. Falcons (81.8)
3. Ravens (78.2)
4. 49ers (78)
5. Chiefs (77.1)

The numbers suggest that both Hurts and the rest of the Philly roster are really good at football—and the rushing production involved is what makes the Eagles’ $255 million dollar man worthy of being the overall fantasy QB1 entering 2023. Overall, Hurts somehow leads the entire NFL in rushing TDs (28) over the past two seasons when including the playoffs.

It’d be a lot easier to scream “regression” if the production wasn’t coming from the (I hate this name) “tush push” QB sneak, which helped Hurts convert 36 of 40 (90%) QB sneaks into first downs or TDs last season.

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, AZ, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first quarter in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Chow/The Republic via USA TODAY Sports

The discrepancy between fantasy’s QB1-6 and QB7-12 bucket was a decade-high 4.9 fantasy points per game in 2022, while the industry has done an excellent job identifying the position’s most fantasy-friendly options in terms of preseason ADP meeting end-of-season finishes.

 Drafting a QB in the second or third round is scary—but it’s reasonable when selecting one of the position’s dual-threat aliens capable of providing elite production through the air and on the ground.

Hurts, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Lamar Jackson are the only QBs I’ll be considering inside the first two rounds of drafts this season; I’ll ride with the Eagles’ 24-year-old signal-caller as the top option thanks to his absolutely loaded offensive environment and cheat-code rushing volume.

You can start drafting Hurts today on Underdog Fantasy with a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!

RB: Rashaad Penny (Ian’s RB28), D’Andre Swift (RB29), Kenneth Gainwell (RB44), Boston Scott (RB78), Trey Sermon (RB101)

Fantasy Life’s fearless leader Matthew Berry noted the following about this backfield in his 23 most interesting things he learned at the combine article:

“They really like Gainwell in his third down passing role but that's about it. One thing that was interesting was both sources told me the ‘running back by committee’ approach that Philly used the last couple of seasons was more about a lack of confidence in Sanders handling a massive workload, both from a health point of view and concerns on fumbling. If Philly were to land a ‘star running back’ from the draft (like if they somehow wound up with Bijan Robinson) they would ride that guy in a big way. In other words, a RBBC is not Sirianni's preferred way to deploy running backs but rather what he felt he had to do given who they had on the roster.”

Since then, the Eagles have added Swift and Penny to the equation, who haven’t exactly proved capable of being able to stay healthy over the years.

The idea that certain players are more injury prone than others is largely a myth, but Swift has missed 10 games since entering the league due to groin, shoulder, ankle, and head injuries, while Penny’s laundry list of brutal injuries has limited him to playing in just 42 of 82 games since entering the league in 2018.

Still, injuries haven’t prevented both Swift and Penny from demonstrating some high-end fantasy ability over the years:

• Swift has posted PPR RB15, RB9, and most recently RB15 finishes on a per-game basis over the past three seasons. He’s one of just six RBs to average at least 5.5 yards per touch among 50 qualified players during this span.
• Out of all RBs with at least 300 attempts since 2018, Penny ranks No. 3 in average yards after contact (3.8) behind only Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry. Over that same span, he registered a 10-plus-yard run on a sparkling 15% of attempts, well above the NFL average of 10.5%.

There’s little doubt that either Swift or Penny could put up big-time fantasy numbers as the featured back of the league’s reigning third-ranked scoring offense. Of course, that sentiment is also probably true for Gainwell and even Scott as well: The issue here comes down to projected volume more than anything else.

Dual-threat QBs make for pretty spectacular fantasy assets, but their tendency to 1.) scramble instead of checking down, and 2.) factor into the rushing equation near the goal line, has made it tough for their offense’s RBs. 

This is why offenses like the Eagles, Bills, Seahawks, and Ravens rank among the league’s bottom-12 offenses in expected RB PPR points per game despite boasting top-12 scoring offenses over the past three seasons.

Only the Rams, Ravens, Bills, Jets, and Chiefs were less willing to give their RB 15-plus touches in a game last season, and Eagles RBs rank just 28th in targets over the past two seasons. Injuries could always force a coaching staff’s hand (see: 2022 Rhamondre Stevenson), but don’t expect any RB involved here to completely take over without multiple parties out of the picture.

Swift’s chance to lock down the (minimal) pass-down work available with explosive upside on the ground earns him a top-30 ranking, but I’m most interested in Penny—especially at his reduced ADP. He’s the best pure rusher of the group and profiles as the favorite for early-down duties (aka Miles Sanders’s 279 available touches).

WR: A.J. Brown (Ian’s WR7), DeVonta Smith (WR13), Quez Watkins (WR90), Olamide Zaccheaus (WR110)

AJB was his usual dominant self during his first season in Philly, with the only minor issue being a slightly reduced rate of targets per route run compared to his final season with the Titans.

• 2022: 88.0 receiving grade, 2.59 yards per route run, 23.7% targets per route run
• 2021: 86.8 grade, 2.5 YPRR, 29.1% TPRR
• 2020: 90.1 grade, 2.65 YPRR, 24.9% TPRR
• 2019: 83.0 grade, 2.01 YPRR, 21.4% TPRR

Of course, that’s because Smith deserves plenty of opportunities in his own right. Overall, Brown had 167 targets in 20 combined regular season and playoff games, while Smith came in at 158. 

Brown did have fantasy-friendly leads in targets inside the 20-yard line (16 vs. 12) and average target depth (13 vs. 10.2), but clearly this is far more of a 1A/1B situation than a major dropoff from No. 1 to No. 2.

Remember when people were concerned with Smith’s playing weight?

There have been 18 instances of teammate WRs posting top-12 numbers in PPR points per game in the same season since 2012—good for an average of 1.6 occurrences per season. This duo didn’t quite pull it off last year, but their respective top-14 standing certainly didn’t leave managers disappointed.

Both WRs are in the prime age zone for top-performing fantasy players at the position and again profile as the top two pass-game options inside of a clear-cut top-three offense. The Eagles do enjoy running the damn ball, but no duo at WR posted a higher combined target share in 2022.

1. Brown (27%) and Smith (25%)
2. DeAndre Hopkins (28%) and Marquise Brown (23%)
3. Ja'Marr Chase (29%) and Tee Higgins (20%)
4. Tyreek Hill (29%) and Jaylen Waddle (20%)
5. DK Metcalf (25%) and Tyler Lockett (22%)

While slightly bigger overall roles would be a lot cooler (Brown and Smith ranked 15th and 24th in expected PPR points per game last season), the former is my highest-ranked WR *without* an absolutely elite role, and the latter is worth prioritizing over similar-ADP options like Chris Olave and DK Metcalf thanks to the Eagles’ superior offensive environment.

Watkins’s speed gives this offense a solid enough field-stretching threat, but he’s only averaged 3.3 targets per game over the past two seasons. Rotating with Zach Pascal rendered both as non-relevant fantasy options; don’t expect this to change alongside Zaccheaus.

TE: Dallas Goedert (Ian’s TE6), Jack Stoll (TE65)

You don’t need more than one hand to count the number of TEs who have been more efficient than Goedert on a per-route basis since he took over the full-time role from Zach Ertz. His yearly marks in yards per route run and PFF receiving grade are as follows:

• 2022: 81.7 PFF receiving grade (No. 4), 1.82 yards per route run (No. 4)
• 2021: 90.5 (No. 3), 2.34 (No. 2)
• 2020: 76.4 (No. 11), 1.63 (No. 9)
• 2019: 78.9 (No. 9), 1.64 (No. 16)
• 2018: 70.5 (No. 15), 1.44 (No. 17)

Only Travis Kelce (17.6), Mark Andrews (15.4), George Kittle (13.7), and T.J. Hockenson (12.4) have averaged more PPR points per game than Goedert (11.3) over the past two seasons. Not too shabby!

Nov 14, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert (88) spikes the football after making a touchdown catch against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Similar to Kittle and the 49ers, the only thing holding Goedert back from top-four treatment is the fact that the Eagles have plenty of other high-end places to go with the football should they desire. 

It’s unlikely he ever gets truly ridiculous Kelce/Andrews-level volume, although the 28-year-old veteran did put forward a respectable 98.6-target 17-game pace during his 15 full games last season.

Goedert, like Kittle, is one key WR injury away from making a serious push to leap Andrews and Hockenson; they both deserve tier-two, top-six treatment thanks to demonstrated baller ability that should help provide some booms even if ideal No. 1 or No. 2 option-level volume doesn’t come along.

2023 win total: 10.5 (-150 juice on the over)

Replacing defensive starters DT Javon Hargrave, LB T.J. Edwards, LB Kyzir White, CB C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and S Marcus Epps is hardly ideal, but have you seen the draft hauls that king Howie has pulled off recently?

Even the absence of another top-10 scoring defense and first-place schedule might not be the end of the world considering just how lethal this offense is capable of being.

I’ll take over 10.5 wins for a squad with arguably the NFL’s deepest overall roster. Perhaps the Eagles will also become the first team to repeat as NFC East champs since they won the division four consecutive years from 2001 to 2004. 

You can tail my o10.5 wins bet on DraftKings Sportsbook, where all of the NFL win totals have been released. You can also get up to $1,000 DK Dollars when you create a new account. Sign up below and start betting today!