The Best Free Agent QBs in 2023
Finding the best free agent QBs
With the NFL offseason quickly approaching, it is time to dive into available free agents. Today, we start with the QBs, where Dwain analyzes the top free agents and a couple of names that are on the trade block.
Tier 1 – High-End Dual Threats
Lamar Jackson
While Jackson is highly unlikely to hit the free agent market, he does not currently have a deal to play with the Ravens in 2023. Baltimore’s top brass remains bullish on getting a long-term contract signed, despite their inability to get something done before the 2022 campaign. If the Ravens can’t reach a long-term agreement, one option would be to tag and trade Jackson.
Jackson will seek a deal similar to Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Deshaun Watson, and Patrick Mahomes, who all have average annual salaries in the $45M range. The 26-year-old is older than those QBs were when signing their deals and while he is an elite weapon on the ground, he ranks below those options as a passer.
PFF QB Grades from 2020 to 2022 (minimum 300 dropbacks):
| Player | PFF Grade | PFF Pass Grade | PFF Clean Pass Grade | PFF Pressure Pass Grade | PFF Rush Grade |
| Lamar Jackson | 84.2 (12th) | 75.0 (23rd) | 88.4 (21st) | 44.9 (20th) | 91.4 (2nd) |
| Patrick Mahomes | 92.3 (5th) | 90.5 (4th) | 93.4 (5th) | 64.4 (2nd) | 88.2 (7th) |
| Josh Allen | 93.6 (1st) | 90.4 (5th) | 92.9 (6th) | 67.3 (1st) | 93.8 (1st) |
| Deshaun Watson | 88.6 (9th) | 84.6 (9th) | 92.0 (9th) | 55.6 (7th) | 81.5 (10th) |
| Kyler Murray | 84.3 (11th) | 81.9 (11th) | 91.6 (10th) | 45.0 (19th) | 75.2 (22nd) |
A $45M average salary would represent approximately 20% of the salary cap. As much as we love Jackson’s ability as a rusher in fantasy, the NFL is still a pass-first league and the Ravens could try to keep the number around the $40M mark. Of 37 QBs with at least 500 attempts over the last three seasons, Jackson ranks 31st in catchable inaccurate passes (24.7%) and uncatchable inaccurate passes (20.4%), per PFF charting data. Accuracy has consistently been a challenge over the years.
However, in the right scheme and surrounded by more weapons, Jackson could lead an offense that looks a lot like what the Eagles put on the field in 2022. The sixth-year veteran is the No. 7 PFF passer when using play action (89.1), which would make him a great fit in a run-balanced offense like Atlanta, which has the salary cap and draft capital available to pull off a deal if the Ravens can’t come to terms. In 2021, Jackson supported strong fantasy performances from Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, who averaged 17.5 and 14.3 points per game, respectively.
Purely from a fantasy scoring perspective, Jackson should put up points wherever he lands – only Jalen Hurts (0.71) and Justin Fields (0.70) averaged more points per dropback. Jackson averaged 0.65 and was one of only six QBs to average over 20 points per game at 20.4. In 2022, no QB registered more designed rushing yards (559) or averaged more per designed attempt (6.5) than Jackson, despite only playing 12 games.
Ideal Landing Spots: Falcons, Ravens, 49ers
Jan 8, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (12) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Aaron Rodgers
Rodgers isn’t a free agent, but he is a bonus addition with the Packers opening up the phone lines for offers from AFC teams.
Similar to Brady, Rodgers was written off in 2019 after a bad season but rebounded in a big way in 2020 and 2021 with QB3 and QB6 finishes. Then in 2022, with Davante Adams traded to the Raiders, the veteran QB posted a career-low 15.0 fantasy points per game.
Season | Team | PFF Pass Grade | YPA | TDs Per Attempt | FPTS per Dropback | FPTS per Game |
2019 | GB | 80.1 | 7.0 | 4.6% | 0.45 | 17.8 |
2020 | GB | 94.3 | 8.2 | 9.1% | 0.69 | 21.0 |
2021 | GB | 87.3 | 7.7 | 7.0% | 0.58 | 24.5 |
2022 | GB | 75.9 | 6.8 | 4.8% | 0.43 | 15.0 |
Rodgers threw a tantalizing 85 TDs in 2020 and 2021, with Adams catching 29 (34%). However in 2022, the Packers allowed their star QB to enter the season with journeymen Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb as his top two options. Ultimately, rookie second-rounder Christian Watson emerged to catch 7 TD passes between Weeks 10 and 18.
The 18-year veteran will be 39 at the beginning of the 2023 season, but he can still make all the throws and has the uncanny ability to create big plays off-script. Over the last three seasons, Rodgers has the third-most TDs (14) on scramble drill plays, per PFF data. He stands in ELITE company, trailing only Mahomes (18) and Allen (18).
With how long QBs can play in today’s NFL, Rodgers could have another five-plus years ahead if he avoids injury. If he were a true free agent, he would rank ahead of Brady thanks to his ability to create more out of structure.
Rodgers has mid-range QB1 upside if he lands in the right spot and has the talent profile to take a strong receiving corps to the next level.
Ideal Landing Spots: Dolphins, Raiders, Jets, Steelers
Tier 3 – Above-Average Pocket Passers
Geno Smith
The 2013 second-round pick operated as a backup QB from 2015 to 2021 before getting his second chance in Seattle in 2022. Smith proved all of his doubters wrong, with 4,282 yards, 30 TDs and only 11 INTs on his way to a QB5 finish, averaging 19.0 points.
Based on PFF charting data, Smith was the fifth-most accurate passer out of 30 QBs with at least 300 attempts in 2022. He delivered 64% of his passes away from coverage and within the target receiver's frame.
Smith had the fifth-most efficient passes from a clean pocket, with 7.8 YPA, and ranked No. 7 against pressure at 6.6 YPA in a tie with Mahomes. Pressure was a significant challenge for Smith early in his career and in his limited 2021 sample, where he had 2.4 YPA.
The veteran also pitched in on the ground with 366 yards and a TD, similar to his rookie season when he had 381 yards and four TDs. He isn’t a factor in the designed-rush department, but he is a capable scrambler, averaging 9.3 yards over the last two seasons.
At only 32 years of age, you could argue that Smith is the better long-term signing than Rodgers or Brady. The question is if teams will trust the one-year sample size.
Derek Carr
Carr isn’t a free agent, but expectations are that he will be traded this offseason. The Raiders haven’t given Carr’s team permission to seek a trade yet. However, the nine-year veteran’s base salary will become fully guaranteed on February 15th, so the team will need to move quickly.
Despite the addition of Davante Adams in the offseason, Carr couldn’t improve his fantasy output in 2022.
Season | Team | PFF Pass Grade | YPA | TDs Per Attempt | FPTS per Dropback | FPTS per Game |
2019 | LV | 81.2 | 7.9 | 4.1% | 0.46 | 16.2 |
2020 | LV | 83.9 | 7.9 | 5.2% | 0.52 | 18.4 |
2021 | LV | 76.6 | 7.7 | 3.7% | 0.41 | 16.5 |
2022 | LV | 65.4 | 7.0 | 4.8% | 0.43 | 15.5 |
To be fair, Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow were hurt for much of the season, so we never saw the full potential of the offense. However, after nine seasons in the NFL, Carr hasn’t had a top-12 fantasy finish.
Regardless of where Carr lands this offseason, it will be hard to consider him anything more than a mid-range QB2 in fantasy, but he could still be a real-life upgrade for multiple teams. While we have never seen a Carr-led offense explode, he has supported multiple top 24 WRs on more than one occasion.
Season | Player 1 | Player 2 |
2015 | Michael Crabtree (WR17) | Amari Cooper (WR21) |
2016 | Michael Crabtree (WR12) | Amari Cooper (WR15) |
Carr hasn’t shown a high-end upside in the TD department, eclipsing 25 only three times in nine seasons. However, he has surpassed 3,900 yards in six of nine years, which 11 NFL teams failed to do in a 17-game season in 2022.
Tier 4 – Bus Drivers
Daniel Jones
Jones set career-high marks in YPA (6.8), completion rate (67%), and quarterback rating (92.5) on his way to a top-10 fantasy finish with 296 points. His 0.52 points per dropback was also a new watermark, thanks to his 703 yards and 7 TDs on the ground.
The fifth-year QB likely earned himself a nice payday in the $25M per year range, but his underlying data suggests he probably won’t ever be much more than a placeholder in the passing game. Jones ranks below the NFL average in PFF pass grade (71.1), YPA (6.8) and TDs per attempt (3.2%).
Jones could be a viable low-end QB1 option in 2023, thanks to his rushing upside. However, his career-high in passing yardage is 3,206 yards, and his career average is 215 yards per game. That makes it challenging to imagine Jones supporting more than one high-end fantasy option in the receiving game.
Dec 4, 2022; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo (10) looks to pass during the first quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Jimmy Garoppolo
Garoppolo never enjoyed the breakout season some hoped for in his time with the 49ers, but he has 4,000-yard passing upside. The 10th-year veteran averaged 238 yards per game and a touchdown on 5% of his passes, slightly above the NFL average.
He is a decent clean-pocket passer but struggles against pressure. The 31-year-old finished below the NFL average in PFF pass grade versus pressure in four out of his last five seasons in San Francisco.
Garoppolo will likely remain a low-end QB2 option in 2023, but he could provide an upgrade to a QB-starved receiving corps like the Jets or Commanders if they don’t find a better option.
Tier 4 – Clipboard Holders
Gardner Minshew has historically struggled against pressure but delivered a career-high 63.3 PFF pass grade versus pressure in 2022. For his career, Minshew is below average in YPA (7.1) and TDs per attempt (4%), but those numbers are better than Daniel Jones, and Minshew should be much cheaper.
Baker Mayfield hasn’t topped 18 fantasy points per game since his rookie season, and his PFF pass grades have plummeted over the last two seasons (62.4 and 52.2). He shouldn’t be starting in 2023.
