The Best Landing Spots for Rookie RBs in 2024 for Fantasy Football
There’s no way to sugarcoat it. This isn’t the best rookie RB class.
There’s no elite prospect at the top like Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. And there’s not a lot of depth either, like we have at the WR position this year.
There’s a real chance that this class breaks the 2014 record for the latest a first running back goes off the board (Bishop Sankey, 54th overall).
On top of that, there aren’t a ton of incredible landing spots for RBs after Free Agency chewed a bunch of them up.
That said, it’s not all doom and gloom. There are a couple of intriguing prospects to get excited about and a couple of dream landing spots for RBs. If those prospects and landing spots line up in the perfect way, we could see some massive rookie fantasy production.
The way I’m categorizing a “dream” landing spot for a RB is roughly:
- A boatload of available carries (opportunity is the biggest driver for fantasy production)
- Very little competition (we don’t want our rookies to have to compete with elite backs for touches)
- A competent offense (it’s hard for bad teams to run a lot)
In addition to playing matchmaker, I’m also going to predict each RBs future ADP if they were to land in the dream spot.
I did this same thing for WRs in a video last week and it proved to be a valuable exercise for thinking through which rookies are currently overvalued in drafts and which ones could significantly rise after the draft.
The Best Landing Spots for Trey Benson
- Current ADP: 104.1 (Round 9)
Scouting Report: Via Jonathan Fuller’s breakdown: A very athletic back with a 4.39 40-yard dash and great broad jump who dominated after contact (4.76 yards after contact per attempt and 77 missed tackles forced in 2022). Concerns include inconsistent vision and workload questions.
Dream Landing Spot: Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are the dream landing spot for an RB.
Not only do they have 87% of their carries and 91% of their targets up for grabs after Austin Ekeler walked in Free Agency, but they also hired a coach who salivates over establishing the run. Everyone thinks Blake Corum (more on him in a sec) will land here because of the obvious Michigan connection with Jim Harbaugh, but Benson is a far more exciting prospect who could immediately take over this backfield.
Predicted ADP: Round 5
If Benson were to land on the Chargers, he’d vault at least four rounds in ADP. I think he’d easily flip backs like Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara and become a fixture of the 5th round. I also think he’d make a similar leap if he landed on the Cowboys. Because of that massive potential windfall, he’s very much a buy for me at his current ADP.
Should the Cowboys draft Jonathon Brooks?
Current ADP: 120 (Round 10/11)
Scouting Report: Via Jonathan Fuller’s breakdown: Productive (1,400 scrimmage yards in just 10 games last year before the injury), young (will turn 21 this summer), elusive (.34 missed tackles forced per attempt and 4.1 yards after contact per attempt), and a plus pass catcher (13.3 YAC per reception in 2023). The only knock is he tore his ACL in November and didn’t test at the Combine or a pro day.
Dream Landing Spot: Dallas Cowboys
Like Corum to the Chargers, the entire world is wish-casting Brooks to Dallas. We, of course, can’t forget that the physician who did Brooks’ ACL procedure is also the Cowboys’ head physician.
The Cowboys also have a ton of available carries (69%) and targets (70%) after Tony Pollard’s departure. Even if the team reunites with Ezekiel Elliott, Brooks could easily climb the depth chart over him and Rico Dowdle and deliver us some big-time production in the second-half of the season.
Predicted ADP: Round 6
Because of the injury and an assumed slow start, I don’t think Brooks would get as pricey as Benson on the Chargers. Still, savvy Underdog drafters who know Week 17 is all that matters would happily load up on the projected starter for an elite offense in the fantasy playoffs. I selected both Brooks and Benson in a recent $100 Underdog draft and explained why in this video.
The Bengals could unlock Blake Corum
Current ADP: 129.9 (Round 11)
Scouting Report: Via Jonathan Fuller’s breakdown: Good, all-around athlete who did well in the agility and strength drills at the combine and racked up elite production at Michigan. The cons: he’s an older prospect (24) and lacks speed and burst.
Dream Landing Spot: Cincinnati Bengals
The dream landing spots quickly evaporate, but I do think the Bengals are a sneaky one. Zack Moss (ADP 105) and Chase Brown (ADP 114) are both going late in drafts, which speaks to the ambiguity of this backfield.
Moss had his moments last year with the Colts, but faded down the stretch. It would not be surprising to see Corum wrestle away early-down work and goal-line carries from Moss while Brown remains in more of a pass-catching/change-of-pace role.
Predicted ADP: Round 9
Similar to what we saw from other, three-headed ambiguous backfields last year (the Bears and the Saints), all three of these backs would have reasonable ADPs, but I think the rookie would pace them. Still, a two-round ADP jump isn’t that exciting. I haven’t been selecting Corum much in drafts, as his value seems entirely dependent on the landing spot.
Jaylen Wright to Arizona?
Current ADP: 137.5 (Round 12)
Scouting Report: An athletic (4.38 40-yard dash at 210 pounds and 99th percentile broad jump), efficient runner (7.4 yards per carry in his 2023 season) who is adept at evading defenders (29 broken tackles).
Dream Landing Spot: Arizona Cardinals
James Conner was a low-key monster down the stretch last year, but he also turns 29 in a month and has a long history of injuries. Assuming the Cardinals add an impact WR at the top of the draft, this is going to be a very fun offense. Wright could carve out an immediate stand-alone role spelling Conner and there’s upside for much more in the event of a Conner injury.
Predicted ADP: Round 8
Wright would jump into the Jaylen Warren-Raheem Mostert-D’Andre Swift range of drafts if he landed in this sneaky, good spot and threaten to flip Conner (Round 7) by the end of the summer.
The Giants are a great fit for Braelon Allen
Current ADP: 159.4 (Round 14)
Scouting Report: Via Jonathan Fuller’s breakdown: Played his first year of college football at the absurd age of 17 and will play his entire rookie year as a 20-year old. He’s big (235 lbs) and physical (2,000 yards after contact in 3 seasons). Cons: not super explosive and lacks receiving game chops.
Dream Landing Spot: New York Giants
The Giants don’t check every box for a dream landing spot, but there is a ton of opportunity for touches here with Saquon Barkley out of the picture. Devin Singletary (ADP 115), who they signed in Free Agency, has forever been a second option who takes advantage of opportunities when the lead back falters. To put it another way, I don’t think the Giants want to give him 20+ touches a game. Allen would form the perfect 1-2 punch with Singletary, and we know the G-men would like to take some heat off Daniel Jones by establishing it on the ground with a bruiser.
Predicted ADP: Round 11
Similar to a potential Conner/Wright dynamic, I think Allen would jump three rounds in this scenario and threaten to flip Singletary. Drafters have never been overly enthused about selecting Singletary (he was free all last year as the RB2 on Houston) and excitement would quickly build for Allen in this spot.
Other Dream Fits for Rookie RBs
For more on these rookie RB prospects, check out our profiles on Audric Estime and MarShawn Lloyd.
They just missed the cut for this exercise, but would be pretty interesting in spots like New Orleans, Las Vegas, or Carolina.
