Top 2023 Fantasy WR Landing Spots
Top 2023 Fantasy WR Landing Spots
Nothing gets the offseason juices flowing like a good landing spot discussion.
Let’s add Bijan Robinson to the Dallas backfield and see what happens. What if we give Kareem Hunt a one-way ticket to Miami? Or how about if we reunite Jaxon Smith-Njigba with Justin Fields in Chicago?
The possibilities are endless, and that’s a good thing, because how else are we supposed to get through the dog days of April?
Of course, not every landing spot is created equal. Competition, scoring environment, and scheme are just three of the many factors that help determine a player’s newfound fantasy value. Not every player is good enough to ball out regardless of where they're playing.
What follows is a breakdown on the most fantasy-friendly WR landing spots available for free agents, trade targets, and draft picks alike. Fantasy is the key word here, as we’re looking to see which NFL teams would optimize fantasy potential for their QBs, which doesn't necessarily correlate with real-life wins.
Landing spots are only being considered for 2023. Here are the four main factors in play:
- Scoring environment: Mix of last season’s finish in points per game (PPG) with slight tweaks to account for major roster turnover (especially at QB).
- Available carries/targets: How much opportunity is on the table based on vacated carries and targets? Special thanks to 4for4’s John Daigle for the updated info.
- Depth chart competition: Available carries and targets aren’t necessarily guaranteed to go to the new guy if the incumbent options are pretty, pretty, pretty good.
- Coaching tendencies: Certain NFL offenses are far more willing to feature committee backfields, while others lean on a true workhorse. Similar decisions are made regarding how often an offense uses two-TE sets, three-WR formations etc..
1. Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, the Chiefs just won the Super Bowl without a single WR who can be considered a true No. 1 option, but it wouldn't be illegal to try and spruce up the position anyway.
Whether it's via trade, free agency, or the draft, Kansas City has some work to do to improve one of the league’s single-most unproven WR rooms. Here's the career receiving production for the WRs currently on the Chiefs' roster:
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (165-2,840-15)
- Richie James (95-1,258-7)
- John Ross (62-957-11)
- Kadarius Toney (55-591-2)
- Skyy Moore (22-250-0)
- Ihmir Smith-Marsette (6-131-2)
- Justyn Ross (0-0-0)
- Cornell Powell (0-0-0)
- Ty Fryfogle (0-0-0)
- Jerrion Ealy (0-0-0)
Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) is tackled by Philadelphia Eagles linebacker T.J. Edwards (57) during Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Even though Travis Kelce was still incredible in 2022, he’ll turn 34 years old in October. And outside of Kelce, of the Chiefs' top-four leaders in receiving yards from last year, three are no longer on the roster. In fact, Kansas City currently has the 10th-cheapest WR room in the league.
Patrick Mahomes just led the NFL in passing yards (5,250) and TDs (41), so it’s easy to imagine him getting the most out of a starting trio of MVS, Toney, and Moore. Still, at this point, Mahomes's contract of $45 million per year ranks “only” fifth-highest in average annual value (AAV) among QBs.
The Chiefs shouldn't make life too hard on their franchise QB.
As the team with the shortest Super Bowl odds on BetMGM (+650), we could see them get even shorter if they add a reliable wide receiver. You can bet on them today before a potential shift in odds and get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win on BetMGM. Sign up below and start betting today.
Dream match: Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins
Unnecessary? Maybe. An objectively fun idea? Absolutely. DeAndre Hopkins’s nuanced route-running ability would be a welcome sight for a Kansas City offense that lacks pass-catchers capable of consistently winning against man coverage outside of Kelce.
2. Buffalo Bills
Stefon Diggs is undoubtedly a stud and showed zero signs of slowing down in 2022. The 29-year-old WR has been phenomenal over the last three seasons in Buffalo:
- 2020: 127-1,535-8
- 2021: 103-1,225-10
- 2022: 108-1,429-11
While no WR who joins this offense will usurp Diggs for the No. 1 WR spot, the Bills should still invest some resources into improving their WR room.
Buffalo's complementary receiving options have shown flashes in recent years, but the lack of an established No. 2 WR isn’t all that surprising considering the minimal resources the Bills have spent on the position outside of Diggs:
- Gabriel Davis: 2020 fourth-round pick
- Khalil Shakir: 2022 fifth-round pick
- Deonte Harty: Former undrafted free agent, two-year, $9.5 million contract
- Trent Sherfield: Former undrafted free agent, one-year, $1.2 million contract
- KeeSean Johnson: Former 2019 sixth-round pick
- Dezmon Patmon: Former 2020 sixth-round pick
- Isaiah Coulter: Former 2020 fifth-round pick
Hell, even Diggs was originally (and inexcusably) a fifth-round pick back in the day. This makes Davis’s fourth-round draft capital the highest of any WR presently on Buffalo's roster, which is madness!
The Bills have scored the second-most points in the NFL over the past three years, so things have clearly been going just fine on the offensive side of the ball. But as with the Chiefs, the Bills should know that it’s legal to pair an incredible QB with more than one high-end pass-game option.
Dream match: Ohio State WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a beast at creating yards after the catch (YAC), and his presence would help prevent defenses from keeping both safeties deep in an effort to contain Josh Allen’s big arm. While JSN is unlikely to drop to the Bills at pick No. 27, it's clear that Buffalo is a top landing spot for whichever WR they add for 2023.
Click here for JSN's dynasty rookie profile.
3. Houston Texans
The Texans have made some laughable RB and WR signings over the past three offseasons.
Houston's top WRs are currently Robert Woods, Nico Collins, John Metchie, and Noah Brown.
Woods just turned 31 years old and set career-low marks in receiving yards (527), yards per reception (9.9), and yards per target (5.8) last season. Although he was returning from a torn ACL in 2022, that’s still miserable production in 17 games considering that Woods had little competition for targets in Tennessee.
Collins is a former third-round draft pick with just 70-927-3 receiving in 24 career games. While he's flashed at times, Collins has ultimately struggled to get much going on an offense that saw Brandin Cooks go for 147-1,736-9 in a season not too long ago.
Metchie was the 44th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft but missed all of last season with acute promyelocytic leukemia. If the Texans were to select Bryce Young with the No. 2 overall pick this year, Young and Metchie could become the latest productive collegiate QB-WR combo to take their show to the pros.
Brown is a former seventh-round pick who was under-qualified to be the Cowboys’ No. 3 WR in 2022. He’s a fine enough No. 4 or No. 5 option, but his modest one-year, $2.6 million deal hardly makes him an impact player.
With minimal target competition, the Texans come in as the third-most fantasy-friendly WR landing spot. No offense has more available total targets (357) or air yards (2,860) heading into the 2023 season.
Dream match: TCU WR Quentin Johnston
Quentin Johnston could be a much-needed injection of youth and upside to a Houston offense in dire need of difference-makers. His combination of size (6'3 and 208 lbs.) and explosiveness (40.5” vertical jump and 11'2 broad jump) is rare, and both traits show up in his ability to make big plays with the ball in his hands.
Click here for Johnston's dynasty rookie profile.
4. Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings join the Lions and Seahawks as the only teams that ranked top-10 in scoring offense last season but ranked among the worst in scoring defense. This combination led to more than a few shootouts for Minnesota in 2022, which they managed to win more times than not.
Still, losing Adam Thielen leaves the offense painfully thin behind all-world WR Justin Jefferson. There’s nothing wrong with rising fourth-year WR K.J. Osborn, but his underlying numbers in yards per route run (1.19, 97th among 110 qualifying WRs) and targets per route run (14.5%, 104th) over the last two seasons are nothing to write home about.
Credit to the Vikings for trading for T.J. Hockenson last season, but there's still room for improvement for Minnesota's pass-catchers, as it’d be a shame if Kirk Cousins’s demonstrated ability to enable big-time WR performances were to go to waste.
Don’t get it twisted. All of the WRs listed below were and are very talented in their own right. However, at some point, Cousins deserves at least some credit for consistently helping them to produce these sorts of high-end numbers:
- 2018: Thielen (113-1,373-9) and Diggs (102-1,021-9)
- 2019: Diggs (63-1,130-6) and Thielen (30-418-6 in 10 games)
- 2020: Jefferson (88-1,400-7) and Thielen (74-925-14)
- 2021: Jefferson (108-1,616-10) and Thielen (67-726-10)
- 2022: Jefferson (128-1,809-8) and Thielen (70-716-6)
This kind of production over the last few seasons is why the Vikings get the nod as the No. 4 best WR landing spot over teams with less overall target competition like the Ravens, Falcons, and Panthers. I’ll take my chances with a talented WR getting 100 targets in Minnesota over 115 targets with any of those aforementioned squads.
Dream match: Free Agent WR Will Fuller
A man can dream, right? The last update on the former Texan was seemingly last November, when Will Fuller stated that he considered retirement after not being signed but would consider reuniting with Deshaun Watson and joining the Browns.
The 29-year-old field-stretcher would likely cost next to nothing at this point. If healthy, Fuller could be an ideal complement to a true No. 1 alpha like Jefferson thanks to his scary deep speed.
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5. Green Bay Packers
Yes, Christian Watson looked good as a rookie. In fact, Watson’s average of 2.26 yards per route run ranked 11th among 80 qualifying WRs, so imagine how great things would have been without his infamous drop on the Packers’ first offensive play of the season.
That said, no team has less money devoted to their WR room than the Packers ($5.5 million) at the moment. Watson’s sidekick is currently Romeo Doubs (42-425-3 as a rookie), who flashed to an extent but remains far from a proven commodity.
Dec 25, 2022; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) catches the football during the fourth quarter against the Miami Dolphins at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
The other WRs presently employed by the Packers are Samori Toure, Johnny Hopkins, Bo Melton, Sloan Kettering, and Jeff Cotton.
Okay, fine…I made two of those names up, but I bet most of you couldn't tell.
The (expected) drop-off from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love won’t help matters for anyone involved, but this remains one of the league’s most wide open passing games in the absence of Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb.
Credit to Green Bay for spending the 34th overall pick of the 2022 NFL Draft on Watson, but now let’s see if the Packers will spend a first-round pick on a WR or TE for the first time since Javon Walker in 2002.
Dream match: USC WR Jordan Addison
Like Houston, Green Bay should devote more serious resources to their WR room. Jordan Addison would be a welcome addition who would provide a missing source of YAC and route-running ability in the underneath and intermediate areas of the field.
Click here for Addison's dynasty rookie profile.
Other notes
The Patriots, Giants, Panthers, and Falcons all have a plethora of available targets. However, New England, New York, and Carolina just missed the cut since they've already made some decent albeit underwhelming WR additions this offseason.
Atlanta missed the cut because they had the most run-heavy offense in the league last year, which makes it unlikely that any WR other than (hopefully) Drake London can be a difference-maker in fantasy there. The run-first problem also applies to the Titans and Bears, and the Colts also fall into the same category until we see what their new offense will look like.
Teams that already have not one, but two clear-cut top WRs, include the Buccaneers, Jets, Chargers, Lions, Saints, 49ers, Steelers, Dolphins, Seahawks, and Eagles. Teams that already have three fairly clear-cut top WRs include the Raiders, Cowboys, and Jaguars. As such, none of these teams are likely to be great WR landing spots for fantasy.
The Rams and Cardinals could get interesting if/when Allen Robinson and DeAndre Hopkins take their talents elsewhere, although even then, both teams would still boast a target hog of sorts in Cooper Kupp and (to a lesser extent) Marquise Brown.
Finally, the Browns, Bengals, Commanders, and Broncos have the fewest available targets heading into 2023 season. Any newcomers to those teams would need to shine in a major way to knock off the team’s incumbent options at WR.
