Top Takeaways From Week 1 of NFL Free Agency
- 1. Caleb Williams is being set up for success in Chicago
- 2. Jim Harbaugh is partying like it’s 1990
- 3. The Jaguars offense got better … kind of
- 4. There’s a new era in Minnesota
- 5. This Falcons offense suddenly looks like a fantasy goldmine
- 6. At least the Titans should know if Will Levis is their guy by 2025
- 7. Bryce Young has a bit more help on his side ahead of 2024
- 8. George Pickens is the MAN in Pittsburgh
- 9. What exactly is the Raiders’ plan under center?
- 10. The NFL sure is banking on veteran RBs still being clean
The last seven days have resulted in a LOT of change in the NFL world. Whether it’s the ongoing QB carousel, the double-digit backfields adding new key RBs or the plethora of big-name WRs finding new big-time roles elsewhere: The fantasy football landscape was severely altered at each and every position in a major way during the first week of free agency.
This brings us to today’s goal: the biggest fantasy takeaways from the last week of player movement. Be sure to check out the Fantasy Life free agency tracker for a full analysis of every fantasy-relevant move; the following highlights are meant to more so encapsulate some of the biggest team-wide changes as opposed to simply going through the biggest individual risers and fallers (Pete has you covered there.)
1. Caleb Williams is being set up for success in Chicago
The decision to trade Justin Fields to the Steelers for a bag of balls conditional sixth-round pick all but confirms the Bears will be selecting USC QB Caleb Williams with the first overall pick of the 2024 NFL Draft. It’s certainly what Fantasy Life’s Matthew Freedman and the betting markets (-1200 on DraftKings) expect.
It remains to be seen if Williams’ unparalleled creativity and tantalizing off-script ability fully translates at the next level — but at least the Bears won’t have to waste a single one of his early years wondering: Is our young QB REALLY the problem, or is it the supporting cast?
A little bit of work still needs to be done, but right now this group of skill-position weapons looks a lot like a damn good group of football players:
- D.J. Moore: Wound up with more receiving yards (1,364) than anyone other than Tyreek Hill, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua and A.J. Brown in 2023. Not too shabby!
- Keenan Allen: While he will turn 32 in April, the long-time route-running savant is fresh off posting a 108-1,243-7 receiving line in just 13 games while averaging a career-high 95 yards per contest.
- D’Andre Swift: Racked up a career-high 1,263 yards in 2023 and continues to profile as the sort of explosive pass-catching RB who is PERFECT as the lead back in a modern spread attack.
- Cole Kmet: Posted career-high marks in receptions (73) and receiving yards (719) last season. No TE earned a higher catch rating than Kmet in terms of ESPN’s receiver ratings.
- Gerald Everett: Has posted top-10 numbers in yards after the catch per reception in each of the past five years. Everett supplies much-needed YAC juice to this offense and reunites with his former Rams and Seahawks coach Shane Waldron.
Nobody is going to confuse this group with the 49ers anytime soon, but it’s certainly a helluva improvement from a team that unironically started Equanimeous St. Brown, N’Keal Harry and Byron Pringle down the stretch of 2022.
Bottom line: The Bears again find themselves in the cozy position of having a cost-controlled QB for the next four to five years. Kudos to them for surrounding their (hopeful) franchise signal-caller with the sort of weapons to maybe just maybe enable the franchise’s first truly elite QB since … Sid Luckman?
2. Jim Harbaugh is partying like it’s 1990
Maybe 1980. 1970?
The man wants to run the f*cking football is what I’m getting at here.
This is apparent based on the team’s skill-position decisions pretty much everywhere:
- Longtime stud WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams were traded and released.
- TEs Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst have been added to the equation.
- Ravens early-down grinder Gus Edwards has a new home in Los Angeles.
None of this is overly surprising. Both Allen and Williams were rumored cap casualties before Harbaugh even took the job, and the Michigan man has generally deployed this sort of run-first philosophy wherever he’s coached regardless of how good of a talent he’s had under center.
Of course, most of Harbaugh’s past teams also benefited from having elite defenses and generally were able to play with a lead — two things that might not be guaranteed in 2024 while the teardown continues to take place.
Ultimately, it’s tough to argue with the reigning national champion’s track record of consistently fielding good football teams; just realize the personnel moves and expected philosophy change on offense don’t bode well for Justin Herbert’s fantasy value. The public has certainly taken notice, as Herbert’s QB12 ADP at Underdog Fantasy continues to fall and currently places him behind guys like Kyler Murray (QB10) and Brock Purdy (QB11).
Bottom line: The Chargers sure as hell look like a team that will be among the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses in 2024, and Herbert no longer has the benefit of throwing the football to proven talents capable of enabling high-end efficiency. The 26-year-old signal-caller will likely need to flirt with an ELITE passing TD rate in order to make up for his expected dropoff in volume and down-to-down efficiency.
3. The Jaguars offense got better … kind of
On the one hand, swapping Calvin Ridley with Gabe Davis is a net negative for Duval County.
On the other hand, Jaguars GM Trent Baalke was pretty direct when pinning Trevor Lawrence’s 2023 regression on the team’s failure to keep him upright …
“Unfortunately, he had four key injuries this year. When your quarterback has a throwing-shoulder injury, a knee injury, an ankle injury, and a concussion all in one year, that’s alarming. So we’ve got to work to improve that.”
… and accordingly, the Jaguars brought in former Bills C Mitch Morse, re-signed LG Ezra Cleveland, and restructured RG Brandon Sherff’s contract.
Jan 7, 2024; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) stands in the pocket against the Tennessee Titans during the first half at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports
Ridley might have been the best WR available on the open market, but that doesn’t mean he wasn’t responsible for a LOT of near-miss TDs last season. This WR room remains the league’s fourth-most expensive group and offers a decent enough trio between Christian Kirk, Zay Jones and Davis — and that’s before considering what they might do with the 17th overall pick come April 25.
Bottom line: The Jaguars’ improvements to PFF’s reigning 27th-ranked offensive line arguably outweigh the loss of Ridley, who didn’t exactly bring out the best from Lawrence last season anyway. While this passing game will be very reliant on Christian Kirk and Evan Engram playing to the best of their abilities, the upgrades in the trenches should help lead to better health and improved consistency from the team’s franchise QB — which is hardly a bad goal to prioritize.
4. There’s a new era in Minnesota
Kirk Cousins is out, and Sam Darnold is in.
Kind of. The Vikings also went out of their way to acquire the No. 23 overall pick from the Texans in a draft pick swap, leading many to believe they are looking to trade up to land one of the top incoming QB prospects.
There have been plenty of examples of Darnold flashing all-world arm talent over the years; film-grinding scholars will certainly lean on these sporadic moments of dopeness to flex their superior football knowledge on us mere mortals when evaluating his potential upside in Minnesota.
That said: The No. 3 overall pick of the 2018 NFL Draft has been one of the game's least efficient QBs since entering the league by almost any commonly used advanced metric. EPA per dropback (63rd among 76 qualified QBs), completion percentage over expected (61st) and passer rating (67th) all tell the same story: Darnold has been objectively bad during his six professional seasons.
Of course, entering an offense led by Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison helps matters — Nick Mullens can certainly attest to this.
Ultimately, the Vikings had little choice but to sign a bridge QB like Darnold in the near term ahead of this inevitable rebuild. Head coach Kevin O'Connell certainly seemed to get the most out of the team's carrousel of backup QBs last year; here's to hoping he enables Darnold to have enough production to at least help the skill-position talents involved keep on keeping on for however long he's needed under center — but we wouldn't bet on an overall pretty outcome there
Bottom line: The 2024 fantasy upside of Jefferson and Addition took a major hit when Cousins took his talents to Atlanta, but — similar to the Bears and Titans — it’s at least admirable that the Vikings have gone out of their way to maintain a pretty great group of skill-position talent to help get the most out of their inevitable incoming rookie QB.
5. This Falcons offense suddenly looks like a fantasy goldmine
The other side of the coin from the Cousins’ fallout: Atlanta is looking like an offense fantasy managers should be targeting early and often in 2024 fantasy drafts.
It’s not a given that Cousins (36 in August) will be at 100% in 2024 after recovering from his Achilles injury. Note that his RIGHT Achilles tear is far more problematic than what Aaron Rodgers is recovering from because it’s his throwing/power leg.
That said: Even 90% of Cousins should be good enough to provide a lift over the Desmond Ridder, Marcus Mariota and Taylor Heinicke experiences. This was truly a solid overall offensive environment in 2023. The top-10 offenses from last season in average PFF receiving, rushing and blocking grades (everything except passing) were as follows:
- 49ers (80.1)
- Lions (79.8)
- Ravens (76.9)
- Dolphins (76.1)
- Eagles (76)
- Rams (74.8)
- Bills (74.4)
- Cowboys (73.8)
- Falcons (73.3)
- Vikings (73.1)
Rising stars Drake London (23 in July), Kyle Pitts (24 in October) and Bijan Robinson (turned 22 in January) form one of the youngest and most exciting skill-position cores in the NFL. The ascension of London is particularly exciting considering his flashes and how prolific Cousins’ top WRs have been in the past.
Throw in PFF’s reigning No. 4 ranked offensive line, and suddenly 2023’s 26th-ranked scoring offense looks like a group that could vie for a top-10 spot in 2024.
Bottom line: High-end pocket passers like Cousins tend to bring out the best of their teammates in fantasy land thanks to their lack of added rushing volume. It remains to be seen just how well Cousins will mesh with new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson; just realize this passing game looks poised to see rare big-time advances in terms of overall volume and efficiency.
6. At least the Titans should know if Will Levis is their guy by 2025
Signing up to give Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard upwards of $116 million might seem like an overpay on the surface, but this remains one of the league’s top-three teams in terms of available effective cap space.
More resources still need to be thrown at PFF’s reigning league-worst offensive line; just realize the team has made every effort to put rising second-year QB Will Levis into a position to succeed next season.
Will he? Who knows. Levis certainly had some flashes last season, most notably throwing four TDs in his NFL debut … but then again he only threw four additional TDs across his next eight starts combined.
Tennessee Titans quarterback Will Levis (8) hugs wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins (10) before a game against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas., Sunday, Dec. 31, 2023.
Adding a receiver like Ridley should help matters, but Levis has a long way to go to be considered even an average NFL QB by most reputable advanced metrics:
Levis among 48 QBs with 100-plus dropbacks in 2023
- EPA per dropback: -0.033 (No. 31)
- Completion percentage over expected: -0.4% (No. 26)
- PFF pass grade: 61.6 (No. 32)
- Passer rating: 84.2 (No. 30)
- Yards per attempt: 7.1 (No. 21)
Maybe the team looks to add more competition for Levis in the draft. Regardless, new head coach Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator Nick Holz suddenly have a truly solid one-two punch at WR in the form of Ridley and DeAndre Hopkins to help mold whoever winds up under center in 2024.
Bottom line: The Titans boast a better offensive environment today than they did one short week ago. That’s a net positive for a franchise fully expected to be in contention for 2025’s No. 1 overall pick. It’s unlikely they finish this season and still don’t have a clear idea on whether or not Levis should be their QB of the future, so yay!
7. Bryce Young has a bit more help on his side ahead of 2024
The big-name addition was Steelers WR Diontae Johnson, who consistently achieves one thing better than just about anyone: Separation.
ESPN analytics' “Open Score” WR rating has done a good job of quantifying this in recent years:
- 2023: 78 (No. 11 among all qualified WRs)
- 2022: 99 (No. 1)
- 2021: 87 (No. 4)
- 2020: 92 (No. 3)
- 2019: 91 (No. 2)
And yet, arguably the even more impactful moves came down to improving the team’s big uglies. Huge bags of cash were thrown at former Dolphins RG Robert Hunt (five years, $100 million) as well as Seahawks LG Damien Lewis (four years, $53 million) to upgrade PFF’s reigning 29th-ranked offensive line.
This was a bottom-five supporting cast last season. Young didn’t exactly elevate everyone — his penchant for letting pressured dropbacks result in sacks was particularly concerning — but there were some flashes along the way.
Bottom line: New Panthers head coach Dave Canales has spent the last two seasons getting more out of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield than anyone thought was previously possible; adding key offensive line pieces and one good-to-great WR (so far) is a nice start in hopefully getting more out of the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick ahead of next season.
8. George Pickens is the MAN in Pittsburgh
No more Diontae Johnson is the main reason why. Pickens certainly took advantage of his time without Johnson on the field in 2023:
- 4-127-1
- 4-75-0
- 3-25-0
- 6-130-1
The presence of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields also helps matters when, you know, comparing things against the Kenny Pickett and Mason Rudolph experiences. Still not exactly fishing with dynamite, but both Courtland Sutton (59-772-10) and (especially) D.J. Moore (96-1,364-8) proved capable of being fantasy studs with those signal-callers last season.
It’s not a given that Pickens reaches the same heights as those two receivers, especially considering new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has a history of establishing the ole run at very high levels.
That said: The upside here is tantalizing. Pickens just turned 23 in March and has largely made the most out of his opportunities during his first two seasons in the league.
Most yards per target among 63 players with 150-plus targets 2022-23:
- Brandon Aiyuk (10.8)
- Jaylen Waddle (10.7)
- Tyreek Hill (10.3)
- George Pickens (10.2)
The tape backs up the idea that Pickens might be ready to truly explode in year three — something that has been commonplace in fantasy land over the years. It’s at least a little bit curious that Pickens hasn’t received nearly the same sort of bump in fantasy land as someone like Drake London despite experiencing similar good news over the last two weeks.
Bottom line: There aren’t many certainties in this Pittsburgh offense ahead of next season OTHER than Pickens being the team’s alpha No. 1 pass-game target. Throw in the relative QB upgrade, and the rising third-year receiver deserves to be one of the game’s trendier breakout candidates ahead of 2024.
9. What exactly is the Raiders’ plan under center?
I am going to be PISSED if it’s April 28 and the Raiders are unironically entering 2024 with Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell as their top two QBs.
Yes, Minshew helped keep the Colts competitive last season and hilariously earned a Pro Bowl nod.
Also yes, these were two below-average NFL QBs last season by virtually any advanced metric:
Among 32 QBs with 300-plus dropbacks in 2023:
- EPA per dropback: Minshew (+0.022, 22nd), O’Connell (-0.038, 25th)
- Completion percentage over expected: Minshew (-3.3%, 31st), O’Connell (-3.9%, 32nd)
- PFF pass grade: Minshew (60.6, 27th), O’Connell (64.6, 25th)
- Passer rating: Minshew (84.6, 23rd), O’Connell (83.9, 25th)
- Yards per attempt: Minshew (6.7, 23rd), O’connell (6.5, 25th)
Peep that second stat from the top: Minshew and O’Connell were arguably the two least accurate QBs in all of football last season.
Bottom line: The Raiders’ QB room is currently poised to enter the 2024 season with the equivalent of a “Muhammad vs. McLovin” controversy: Why the f*ck would the starting QB job be between Minshew and O’Connell? Here’s to hoping the organization goes out of its way to at least add one of the consensus top-six incoming QB prospects to the squad at some point during the first few rounds of the 2024 NFL Draft.
10. The NFL sure is banking on veteran RBs still being clean
And not washed. Get it?
Sorry — but seriously: No less than 12 backfields added a new RB who is either expected to be the new bell-cow option or at least heavily factor into a committee.
Bottom line: I broke down all of these situations in detail right here in my latest short-form video over at the Fantasy Life YouTube channel — you should check it out!
