NFL Weekly Projections

Projections last updated
Fantasy Life - 2/11 8:00A ET
Freedman - 2/11 9:00A ET
Last Updated Feb 11th, 2024 9:15 EST

How do our projections work?

Our in-season projection model is built on historical data that focuses on expected game environment and team archetypes, which allow us to place offenses into peer groups.

The projected game environment is derived from Vegas lines, and archetype peer groups are crafted based on how teams behave in different game scripts compared to the league average. The two primary components are dropback rate over expected (DBOE) and plays per minute over expected (PPMOE).

This approach provides the Fantasy Life model with powerful insights that fuel play volume and scoring projections, which then flow down to the player level. For example, our model understands how a slow-paced run-heavy team behaves differently than a fast-paced pass-heavy team in leading, close, trailing, and blowout game scripts.

Player and league-level historical efficiency data then combine with team passing and rushing volume projections to derive player projections.