DraftKings Main Slate DFS Picks Week 1: Expect Saquon Barkley to Bounce Back

It’s Week 1 of the NFL season, which can only mean one thing.

Everyone is underpriced.

Because pricing comes out during the summer, the first week of the year always creates an advantageous scenario for DFS players. Simply put, you can pretty much play whoever the hell you want, which is both exciting and overwhelming.

Let’s take a look at some of my favorite plays to kick off the NFL DFS season.

Quarterback

Justin Herbert vs. Arizona Cardinals ($6,100)

The Chargers find themselves in a great Week 1 spot, hosting the very beatable Arizona Cardinals. Many people are expecting an MVP-like season from Herbert this season, and he has a great chance of getting off to a hot start.

A depleted offensive line made Herbert’s job much more difficult last year, but both of his all-world offensive tackles are back to protect him. Rashawn Slater missed the entire 2025 campaign, but Herbert really fell apart once Joe Alt’s season ended.

Alt on the field:

67.5% completion rate
8.3 YD/ATT
7.1% TD rate
0.55 FP/DB

Alt off the field:

65.9% completion rate
6.9 YD/ATT
4.2% TD rate
0.42 FP/DB

Herbert should be better protected this season, and especially this weekend. Arizona ranked toward the bottom of the league in terms of pressure rate this past season and has the same scheme and very similar personnel this time around. The Cardinals also struggled to defend motion, which is going to be much more prominent in Los Angeles’ offense this season.

Mike McDaniel is now calling plays, bringing over a lot more movement and pre-snap motion. And we saw it in full effect during the preseason when the Chargers utilized motion on 125 of 167 offensive plays (75%), up from their 50% motion rate last year. The Cardinals, meanwhile, posted the league’s second-worst defensive success rate on plays with motion (53.2%), to go along with the 11th-highest passing TD rate (5.6%).

Herbert has as much upside as any quarterback on the slate, but is just the QB7 in terms of price.

Tyler Shough @ Detroit Lions ($5,600)

Attacking this Detroit/New Orleans game seems like a good idea. The total is hovering around 51 points, with the Saints coming in as road touchdown underdogs.

Sounds like the perfect game environment for Shough to chuck.

I talked about it in my Week 1 bold predictions article, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Shough finished as a top-five fantasy signal caller this weekend. Sure, it would be nice if Jordyn Tyson was available, but Shough was missing a viable WR2 last season and still averaged a healthy 16.4 fantasy points per game from Week 8 on, good for the QB14 in fantasy. Shough flashed some of the things we love from a fantasy quarterback—rushing and deep passes. During that span, 20.9% of Shough’s pass attempts were 15-plus yards down the field (13th), while 12% traveled at least 20 yards.

Detroit’s pass defense is extremely vulnerable right now. Both starting safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are out, presenting Shough with some serious opportunities to attack down the field. The Lions usually do, but especially to start this season, project as a massive pass-funnel defense. They also play a ton of man coverage, deploying it over 30% of the time last year, a top-five rate in football. I always look for quarterback rushing upside against man-centric defenses because the defenders’ backs are almost always turned when the quarterback takes off to run. Detroit has ranked top-five in rushing yards per game allowed to opposing quarterbacks in three of the last four years.

With how concentrated this Saints passing attack should be, Shough is an easy player to stack with, while we know who to run it back with from Detroit.

Others to consider:

Joe Burrow vs. TB ($6,900)
Kyler Murray vs. GB ($5,500)
Jared Goff vs. NO ($6,000)

Running Back

Saquon Barkley vs. Washington Commanders ($6,900)

The Barkley bounce-back starts Sunday.

A new scheme and a healthier offensive line should propel Barkley closer to his 2024 heights. With Lane Johnson on the field last season, Barkley’s overall numbers were clearly still down quite a bit from 2024, but they don’t look as bad when you consider what he did without his all-world right tackle. Barkley averaged 4.2 YPC and 1.97 YBC/ATT with Johnson on the field, while posting a 16.9% first-down-per-rush rate. But with Johnson sidelined, the numbers plummeted even more, as Barkley averaged 4.0 YPC and just 0.88 YBC/ATT. And unsurprisingly, the Eagles offense was much worse without their star lineman on the field, averaging an ugly -0.04 EPA/Play and 5.1 yards per play, while posting a success rate of 39.1%. With Johnson on the field? 0.05 EPA/Play, 5.4 yards per play, 42.2% success rate.

Johnson and the offensive line are healthy, while Barkley is set to see more runs from under center in Sean Mannion’s scheme. Everything is looking up for Barkley, and while they did make plenty of moves on the defensive side of the ball this offseason, the Commanders still project as a team you can run on. Last year, Washington posted the eighth-lowest stuff rate (14.1%), while surrendering the fourth-most runs of 10-plus yards (65).

Chase Brown vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($7,100)

While I don’t love Brown’s upside between the tackles against Vita Vea and company, I am excited about his prospects as a pass-catcher. Brown’s 2025 campaign got off to a rocky start without Burrow, but he fulfilled his fantasy potential once Burrow was under center. From Weeks 13-18 last year, only Bijan Robinson averaged more FPPG than Brown (22.3), as the Cincinnati offense returned to elite status:

Weeks 13-18 (with Burrow):

47% of drives with a score (6th)
34% of drives with a TD (6th)
29% rushing TD rate (24th)
68.0 plays per game (1st)

This game features a high total, and while the Bucs can slow down runs up the middle, this is a unit that surrendered 50.6 receiving yards per game to opposing backfields a season ago, easily the most in the NFL.

Others to consider:

Omarion Hampton vs. ARI ($6,800)
De’Von Achane @ LV. ($7,000)
MarShawn Lloyd @ MIN ($4,800)

Wide Receiver

Luther Burden @ Carolina Panthers ($5,500)

One of the most hyped players in all of fantasy throughout the summer, Burden is likely going to be closer to $7,000 on DK very, very quickly. But because pricing was released so early, take advantage here.

We know the upward trajectory Burden is on. A preseason injury limited Burden’s early playing time, as the rookie only ran 46% of the routes on the year. However, when he was out there, he was getting the ball, sporting a team-high 23% TPRR.

From Week 11 on, the involvement increased, as Burden’s route share climbed to 61%, while drawing a target on 24% of routes. During that stretch, so much of the schemed looks went Burden’s way, as 11 of his targets came from motion, with another seven being wide receiver screens. Whether you put a ton of weight into his 2.71 yards per route run (3rd-best) is up to you, but there’s no doubt that Burden will be heavily involved as a sophomore, especially with DJ Moore now in Buffalo.

This is a spot for him to see that involvement right away.

Carolina’s defensive philosophy is simple—limit explosive pass plays. They’re going to once again deploy a ton of Cover-3, which helped them surrender the second-fewest plays of 20-plus air yards a season ago. This plays right into how Ben Johnson will use Burden, whose route diet consisted of nearly 30% crossers and WR screens as a rookie. Last year, the Panthers surrendered 0.12 EPA/pass play on short passes (under 10 air yards), the sixth-worst mark in the league. They also coughed up 5.8 yards per pass play (8th-worst).

This bodes well for Burden, who averaged 2.17 fantasy points per target against zone defenses last year, compared to 1.83 against man coverage. And against Cover-3 in particular, Burden was targeted on just over 28% of his routes.

We’ve been waiting all summer for the Luther Burden breakout. We won’t have to wait long on Sunday for it to begin.

Jameson Williams vs New Orleans Saints ($6,000)

Amon-Ra St. Brown is obviously a terrific play because, well, it’s a day that ends in ‘y’. But don’t forget about Williams, who has massive upside every week, but especially here in Week 1.

Detroit has one of the highest implied team totals of the week, projected to score around four touchdowns. Chris Allen discussed Williams’ favorable matchup in his Week 1 WR/CB Matchups article, pointing out how he can find success against Kool-Aid McKinstry and Quincy Riley. The Saints return the same defensive scheme from a year ago, one that surrendered the most receiving touchdowns off post routes. That’s notable because Williams’ usage shifted during the second half of last season.

From Week 10 on, no wideout ran more post routes than Williams, who saw his rate jump from 9.6% in the first half to nearly 16% in the second half. It still remains to be seen whether his spike in usage during the second half had more to do with the change in playcalling or the absence of Sam LaPorta.

Why not both?

I’m not projecting Williams will outscore St. Brown on Sunday, but it is notable that the Saints were allowed the fourth-fewest PPR PPG to opposing slot wideouts a year ago (14.8). Don’t forget about Williams in your game stacks this weekend.

Chris Godwin @ Cincinnati Bengals ($5,200)

You are going to want some exposure to this game, and a $5,200 fully healthy Godwin is a great piece to target.

No one doubts that Emeka Egbuka is the top pass-catcher in Tampa Bay. However, I firmly believe that, at least for this week, that title could belong to Godwin. Egbuka draws the more difficult matchup here, likely seeing primary coverage from DJ Turner. His emergence last year helped the Bengals to allow just 44.5 yards per game to opposing number one wideouts, the second-lowest mark in the league.

Meanwhile, the slot was the area to attack this defense. Last year, Cincinnati coughed up the fourth-most yards per reception (12.3), second-most YAC/reception (6.2) and fourth-most touchdowns per game (0.76) to the slot, as well as the 12th-most PPR PPG. We also know Godwin is more productive when in the slot, averaging a strong 0.48 fantasy points per route run over his last 16 games, compared to 0.36 when lined up elsewhere.

Others to consider:

Chris Olave @ DET ($6,700)
Tetairoa McMillan vs. CHI ($6,100)
Garrett Wilson @ TEN ($5,800)
Quentin Johnston vs. ARI ($4,700)

Tight End

Michael Mayer vs. Miami Dolphins ($2,900)

The surprising Brock Bowers news provided us with one of the top value plays of the slate. I will say that among all the weeks, this is the one where value might be the least important considering everyone is already priced down.

Still, $2,900 is tough to ignore.

We saw a stretch where Mayer was the Raiders' starting tight end last season, and the results were strong. In four starts with Bowers sidelined last year, Mayer averaged 6.0 targets, 4.5 receptions, 49 receiving yards and about 11 PPR PPG. During those contests, Mayer’s involvement was that of an elite fantasy tight end:

Week 6: 80% routes, 35% TPRR, 32% target share
Week 7: 90% routes, 6% TPRR, 6% target share
Week 17: 89% routes, 31% TPRR, 37% target share
Week 18: 74% routes, 17% TPRR, 17% target share

He draws a mouth-watering matchup against the Dolphins, a bad defense that is seemingly getting worse. Miami coughed up 16.7 DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends last year, the fourth-most in all of football.

Others to consider: