Dynasty Rookie Profile: Jonathan Mingo
Jonathan Mingo
- WR Rookie Model Percentile: 69th
- Underdog ADP: 135.9
- Landing Spot: Carolina Panthers (39th overall)
Fantasy Outlook
Jonathan Mingo has at least two positive elements to his fantasy value entering the 2023 season.
First, he's entering a nebulous pass-catching corps in Carolina as the best athlete of the group. Laviska Shenault has a similar athletic profile to Mingo, but Shenault has primarily produced from the slot. Meanwhile, the Ole Miss product's highest interior route rate was 35.0%. So Mingo could step in as the team's primary X receiver in Week 1. And that role could be a lucrative one.
Bryce Young's size may cause folks to think the Panthers will employ a conservative offense to help Young transition to the pros. But, it's not how coach Frank Reich has operated in the past.
The Eagles were 13th in early-down pass rate in Carson Wentz's rookie season, and the Colts were 5th when Reich coached Andrew Luck. It might take some more creative playcalling to keep Young upright, but he should be looking for Mingo once he establishes himself as the leader of the pack.
Way-too-early 2023 redraft rank: WR 5/6
Summary
The former four-star recruit finished his senior season with career marks in receptions (51), yards (861), and touchdowns (5).
Jonathan Mingo, a 2022 All-SEC Second Team member, may not have the extensive early-career production that some seek, but his elite athleticism has been turning heads among NFL evaluators. Standing at an impressive 6'1" and weighing in at 226 lbs, Mingo possesses a rare combination of size and athleticism that is difficult to overlook.
Pros
Rare Athletic Traits
The biggest reason Mingo has become both a fantasy and NFL-relevant prospect is his athleticism. He left the Combine ranked as the No. 2 athlete at WR per Player Profiler’s model, sporting a 96th-percentile speed score and 91st-percentile burst score.
Since the Combine, he has shot up consensus big boards. Previously an afterthought at 205th overall, he’s now at 87th with first-round buzz per a 33rd Team mock draft.
The Ole Miss product looks like he was built in a lab. Like his brethren, DK Metcalf and A.J. Brown, Mingo boasts imposing physical attributes with the speed and power to make defenders think twice. However, unlike both of those superstar receivers, Mingo didn't put it all together on the field. Well, except for one game against Vanderbilt. That day he set the Ole Miss record for most receiving yards in a single game (247), which accounted for 14.0% of his total career production.
Sep 17, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Mississippi Rebels wide receiver Jonathan Mingo (1) makes a catch past Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets defensive back Zamari Walton (7) in the second half at Bobby Dodd Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
Per Lance Zierlein, Mingo would step in as a big slot for NFL teams. He’d immediately earn snaps blocking downfield while showing off his ability to get vertical and make contested catches.
After clocking a 4.46 40-yard dash at the Combine, Mingo showed he can take the top off a defense, make plays in traffic, and get his nose dirty in the run game, which will make him popular among NFL teams.
Cons
Late Bloomer
If you want to use the WR Super Model to find the best prospects and still like Mingo, look away! He checks in at 25th overall as a sixth-tier WR, with no attributes that get you excited.
While it is true Mingo never had elite QB play, the numbers over his first three years are tough to look past. He didn’t break 400 yards in a single season until his final year and saw under 9% of his team's targets the prior year.
Unfortunately, late-career breakouts, with minimal production, have extremely low hit rates. And Mingo falls into both categories. His rise to stardom would make him an outlier, and making a bet on that outcome would place unnecessary risk on your fantasy squad.
Fantasy Outlook
Prior to the hype, Mingo was a fourth-round rookie pick and not even considered a dart-throw selection in best ball. Now, he’s becoming an intriguing late-round flier. Daniel Jeremiah tweeted that Mingo and Cedric Tillman are the wide receiver stocks to buy.
One of the biggest advantages Mingo has is that there are not many big, athletic receivers in this class. His size alone could push him into the second round. As I mentioned with Tillman, second-round SEC receivers have paid off, averaging 9.23 PPR PPG in their rookie years in the last five seasons.
With almost no downside, adding Mingo to round out your WR corps on Underdog is a sharp strategy, with the hopes an NFL team gives him a real role in his rookie year.
Do you think he gets drafted on Day 2? You can start drafting him ahead of time and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 by signing up for Underdog Fantasy below!
