Elite QB Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Josh Allen Is The One

I’ve always had a soft spot for drafting the elite QBs. There’s just something about it that’s calling your shot, like Larry Bird walking into the three-point shooting contest and asking who’s going to take second. And then winning the damn thing.

There’s been such a big deal made out of the late-round QB draft strategy, and it definitely works to load up the roster early and look for some finds in Round 10 or later and then constantly being on the prowl on the waiver wire.

There’s just something about having a set-it-and-forget-it QB that you only have to replace on his team’s bye week. We’re talking Lamar Jackson every year except for last year—still high on him for this year. Drake Maye has entered that realm. Joe Burrow is one of the few dudes who’s primarily a pocket passer.

The tough part is the early investment in drafts, because in taking a QB in the third or fourth rounds, it means passing on running backs, wide receivers and even the occasional tight end—looking at you, Colston Loveland—who could be true difference makers on your roster.

Then again, few things strike fear into a fantasy manager like seeing Josh Allen in the starting QB slot on an opposing roster. That’s why we’re doing this exercise, to see what kind of team we can build going with an elite QB taken early. In this case, we’re taking—who else?—Allen in the third round.

The roster breakdown is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 FLEX and 6 bench spots. The third WR has been pivotal in these mock drafts because in using our Draft Champion, having that extra WR spot to fill makes fading that position in the first two rounds very difficult. We’re picking at the 1.03 spot. Let’s get drafting.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Focusing on Elite QB

Round 1: Chasing Targets

This was pretty chalky because Ja'Marr Chase, as expected, was waiting there for me. While the Ram fan in me loves Puka Nacua and would not be surprised to see him live up to his fantasy football projections as the WR1 overall, I have Chase a hair above Puka. The 166 projected targets for the Bengals’ stud WR are something I’m looking at closely. Joe Burrow is going to pass at a higher rate than Matthew Stafford, largely because the Bengals defense, while improved, will still create plenty of passing environments. The Rams with All-Pro unicorn DE Myles Garrett and possibly an unretiring Aaron Donald in front of a revamped secondary headed by Trent McDuffie will have plenty of opponents on lockdown, lowering pass attempts.

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Round 2: Crowning the King

Knowing that the plan was to take a QB with the next pick, I felt it most necessary to take a running back in this round. Waiting until toward the end of Round 4 for the first RB just feels like forever. Luckily for me, Derrick Henry is waiting for me here. Father Time may be undefeated, but King Henry is giving him a run for his money. Put him down for another 1,404 yards and 12.7 TDs as we have in our fantasy football projections. A good chunk will come in December, during the fantasy playoffs.

Round 3: Moment of Truth

Full disclosure, I wanted to pick later in Round 3 to see if I could get Allen closer toward the end of the round. Not happening. I had to move up to the third pick to make sure I got him. Having 18 picks to wait before the next pick feels like an eternity, but having Chase and Henry as a foundation feels great. I realize with the first three picks I have the lead contender for WR1, the projected rushing leader and now I’ll draft a QB who has finished no lower than QB2 in fantasy since 2020. Who’s got it better than us?

Dwain McFarland laid out the bull case for Allen in his fantastic QB Tiers feature. Allen is in his QB prime at age 30, he plays behind one of the best offensive lines in the game, he got an upgrade in his receiving targets in DJ Moore and he gets to hand off the ball to one of the best running backs in the game in James Cook. Oh yeah, Allen has rushed for at least 500 yards in five consecutive seasons while hitting the painted area 12-15 times in the past three.

Want continuity? He’s going into the fourth year with the same playcaller, as Joe Brady got elevated to head coach this offseason. During the fantasy playoffs he’ll have potential shootouts against the Bears and Broncos, with a date in Miami waiting for Allen and the Bills in Week 17. Seriously, I’m talking myself into drafting Allen all over the place.

Round 4: Waddle in

I know there has already been some training camp buzz that Jaylen Waddle is dealing with an injury. His injury history is not short. But look at this offense with Bo Nix at the helm, and even though Sean Payton isn’t calling plays anymore, he’ll still get the ball going in Waddle’s direction at least the 122 times we have him projected. WR1 options are dwindling, so I’m jumping on this one here.

Round 5: Stack it up

Waiting for the four picks at the turn, I couldn’t resist the chance to team up Allen with DJM. I know the 106 targets he’s projected for do not seem high for a WR1, but I’m buying Moore’s history with Brady and the fact that he really has the best chance to be the most dynamic WR that the Bills have. I love stacks, and looking forward to having this one. Chase, Waddle and Moore are a good WR trio.

Round 6: Buying the Rookie Hype?

The RB well is running pretty dry by now. True bell cows are long gone. We’re getting to the point of the draft that we’re seeing committee backs where you have to convince yourself that they “might” get the larger role. If I’m telling myself a story at this point, I want it to be of a rookie RB drafted at the end of the first round by a team that lost the Super Bowl MVP running back (Kenneth Walker) and whose main competition for touches is recovering from a torn ACL (Zach Charbonnet). Welcome, Jadarian Price, but by no means am I feeling comfortable at RB.

Round 7: Wild Card

I’m feeling in a gambling mood, taking Brian Thomas here at the 7.03 to fill the flex before TE. BTJ is young—turns 24 in October—and just a year removed from a breakout rookie season. This is an ascending offense headed up by a QB in Trevor Lawrence who finished the season as hot as anyone. Taking BTJ here does feel bold, but who does fortune favor?

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Rounds 8-11: Depth Picks

I know the quarterbacks are good at this point, but not having to think about them feels good because of the presence of Allen on the squad. I snag Sam LaPorta just before George Kittle, whom I would’ve been happy to get as well.

The running backs in Round 9 felt pretty robust for this point in the draft, though it was mostly high-end RB2s on their respective teams. J.K. Dobbins being the likely early-down back at the outset of the season for the Broncos is good insurance for Price.

Xavier Worthy and Stefon Diggs as my 10-11 picks had plenty of upside. Worthy has been one of the stars in KC camp (hope that injury doesn’t linger), and Diggs had not signed with the Commanders when I did this mock draft. I can’t imagine getting him in Round 11 going forward.

Rounds 12-14: Closing Time

Jalen Coker, T.J. Hockenson and Kayshon Boutte are pure depth plays whom I don’t expect to start often, if at all beyond bye weeks. Though Hockenson is intriguing because he has gotten a high target share in this offense, albeit in 2023 before suffering a torn ACL. If he doesn’t have anything left at age 29, he’s an easy cut.

Analyzing Elite-QB Fantasy Football Strategy

Here’s the projected starting lineup:

QB: Josh Allen

RB: Derrick Henry

RB: Jadarian Price

WR: Ja’Marr Chase

WR: Jaylen Waddle
WR: DJ Moore
TE: Sam LaPorta

FLX: Brian Thomas

I’d feel good going to battle with any team, any week. Give me prime contenders for QB1 and WR1 overall, with the ageless Henry plodding away. Going the Hero-RB strategy felt most fitting here, because chasing RB after Allen would’ve been tough. This is the inverse of the Elite-TE strategy, where it was necessary to wait for the TE after filling the other positions. I liked the options there in Round 8, but I wouldn’t wait any further. The Draft Champion may have given me a C+, but this is at least a starting lineup with high-end players at the top, some promise in young players, and a couple players on the bench who could slot in if Price or Thomas get off to slow starts.