Fantasy Football Week 9 is upon us, and Ian Hartitz is here to prime you with one key stat for all 32 teams:
One fact for every NFL team. Some might say it's truly a great day to be great.
Special thanks to TruMedia, PFF, Pro Football Reference, and Next-Gen Stats for all referenced metrics.
Arizona Cardinals
- Question: Is Marvin Harrison Jr. the king of crossing routes?
Something like that! Maserati Marv's Week 8 route tree included a noticeable uptick in crossing patterns, and the results (6-111-1) spoke for themselves.
Maybe the Cardinals should keep on keeping on with the plan: Harrison leads the NFL in yards (155) and TDs (3) on crossing routes this season while trailing only Jameson Williams (27 vs. 25.8) in yards per reception on the concept (min. 5 receptions).
Atlanta Falcons
- Question: Are we currently witnessing the Kyle Pitts breakout?
It's starting to look that way! While Pitts is "only" on pace for 891 yards and six TDs this season, four consecutive 65-plus-yard performances have the arrow firmly pointing up. Only George Kittle and Brock Bowers have scored more PPR points than Pitts among all TEs since Week 5.
The current TE5 in PPR points per game, Pitts is suddenly flashing the sort of elite every-week upside that many have hoped for year after year. Things still aren't exactly as peachy as possible–Pitts' 42 targets on the season are tied with Ray-Ray McCloud for third on the team–but it's at least been nice to see that yes, the former No. 4 overall pick remains capable of doing some cool things on the football field.
Baltimore Ravens
- Question: Does Derrick Henry get scarier as the season goes on?
He sure does:
Derrick Henry career regular-season yards per carry by month:
- September: 4.18 yards per carry
- October: 4.83
- November: 4.94
- December: 5.11
- January: 5.89
Winter is coming–best of luck to any defenders standing in the king's way down the stretch.
Buffalo Bills
- Question: Has Josh Allen really done a great job limiting his turnovers?
On the one hand, the easy answer here is yes. Allen has just one INT through eight games; he had at least five by this point during each of his previous six career seasons.
On the other hand, Allen is tied for the league lead with four dropped INTs this season.
So has Allen ACTUALLY gotten better at taking care of the football, or has luck simply been on his side in the first half of the year?
Using PFF's turnover-worthy play rate: It might actually be the latter.
Josh Allen's turnover-worthy play rate by year:
- 2024: 4.3% (tied for 30th)
- 2023: 3% (tied for 17th)
- 2022: 4.2% (tied for 26th)
- 2021: 3.4% (tied for 18th)
- 2020: 3.4% (tied for 22nd)
- 2019: 4% (25th)
- 2018: 5.1% (31st)
Now, the mainstream media has never given Allen enough credit for doing a great job avoiding sacks–his 11.2% pressure-to-sack ratio is the third-lowest mark in the league–but at least so far in 2024, his lack of INTs could be due to change.
Carolina Panthers
- Question: Is Jalen Coker the best WR alive?
Maybe not quite there just yet, but the early returns have been good. Just take a look at his (VERY) small-sample stats:
Coker among 109 WRs with 15-plus targets this season:
- PFF receiving grade: 80.1 (No. 18)
- Passer rating when targeted: 112.8 (No. 31)
- Yards per route run: 1.74 (tied for No. 40)
- Yards per reception: 15.5 (tied for No. 22)
Will Coker emerge as an overly fantasy-relevant option down the stretch? Probably not, but hey, there's suddenly an available starting spot here after the Diontae Johnson trade, and the undrafted rookie is making some plays out there. Hell yeah!
Chicago Bears
- Question: How has Caleb Williams done at not letting pressures turn into sacks this season?
Not great, which isn't super surprising considering his "P2S" score was one of the bigger concerns many had of him as a prospect coming out of USC.
Rookie QB pressure-to-sack rates and rank among 37 qualified QBs:
- Bo Nix (11.6% of pressures have converted into sacks, 4th best)
- Jayden Daniels (17.5%, 14th)
- Drake Maye (23.1%, 28th)
- Caleb Williams (25%, 31st)
- Spencer Rattler (33.3%, 37th)
At his best Williams has looked near impossible to get to the ground, but it'd be a bit cooler if he did a better job avoiding the eventual negative plays.
Cincinnati Bengals
- Question: How dominant has Ja'Marr Chase been with Tee Higgins sidelined over the years?
Very! Excluding the Jake Browning 2023 starts, Chase has been Joe Burrow's no-doubt No. 1 WR on 10 separate occasions over the past three seasons:
- Week 3, 2021: 4 receptions-65 yards-2 TD
- Week 4, 2021: 6-77-0
- Week 1, 2022: 10-129-1
- Week 5, 2022: 7-50-0
- Week 14, 2022: 10-119-1
- Week 5, 2023: 15-192-3
- Week 10, 2023: 5-124-1
- Week 1, 2024: 6-62-0
- Week 2, 2024: 4-35-0
- Week 8, 2024: 9-54-1
Add it all up, and that's good for an average of 7.6 receptions, 90.7 yards, and 0.9 TDs per game. 22.1 PPR points per game. Pretty, pretty, pretty dominant.
Cleveland Browns
- Question: How great has Cedric Tillman been with Jameis Winston under center?
Like one of the best WRs in the league level of great. The 8-81-0 and 7-99-2 receiving lines have produced PPR WR15 and WR3 finishes–NOBODY has scored more PPR points than Tillman (47) over the past two weeks. Note that CeeDee Lamb (39.6) is the only WR who would probably be ahead of Tillman without bye weeks to worry about.
While the Browns, unfortunately, won't get to tee off on the Ravens' miserable secondary every game, clearly Tillman has the trust of Jameis Winston, and the result has been all sorts of fantasy-friendly opportunities. Overall, Tillman ranks second in targets (21) and third in air yards (286) among all WRs over the past two weeks.
Dallas Cowboys
- Question: Is this Dallas offensive line a shell of its former self?
You bet. The team is currently averaging its fewest rush yards per carry (3.4) since 1960 (!), but the O-line deserves arguably as much blame as the RBs.
Cowboys rank in rush yards before contact per carry:
- 2024: 0.95 (30th)
- 2023: 1.4 (16th)
- 2022: 1.33 (23rd)
- 2021: 1.49 (18th)
- 2020: 1.29 (27th)
- 2019: 1.34 (20th)
- 2018: 1.54 (18th)
- 2017: 1.62 (14th)
- 2016: 2.24 (4th)
Denver Broncos
- Question: Has Bo Nix slowly but surely been improving this season?
He has! While Week 8's season-best performance against the Panthers was certainly helped out by the matchup, Broncos WRs actually left quite a few yards on the field in what was still a pretty great performance.
Things haven't been completely smooth, but they are certainly moving in the right direction. We'll use PFF pass grade as our metric:
We'll find out just how real these improvements are in back-to-back road matchups against the Ravens and Chiefs in Weeks 9 and 10.
Detroit Lions
- Question: Just how accurate has Jared Goff been this season?
Awfully accurate! While the reality that Goff hasn't made a habit of attacking tight windows too far downfield means his completion percentage over expected (+5.7%, 5th) is really good albeit not historically elite, the raw completion rate is incredible:
Highest single-season completion rates in NFL history (min. 150 pass attempts)
- 2018 Drew Brees (74.4%)
- 2019 Drew Brees (74.3%)
- 2024 Jared Goff (74.1%)
Goff has been even more accurate than that in recent weeks, completing 83% of his passes (88/106) since Week 3. Madness.
Green Bay Packers
- Question: Has Malik Willis been the league's most efficient QB this season?
In a very small sample: Yes. Overall, the ex-Titan currently leads the NFL in both yards per pass attempt (9.7, min. 35 attempts) and yards per carry (8.6, min. 15 carries). Nobody has averaged a higher EPA per dropback (+0.368). Obviously, we should expect these numbers to go down with more reps, but hey, still pretty damn good stuff from a player many probably expected to simply be a career backup a few short months ago.
Houston Texans
- Question: Has C.J. Stroud regressed in year two?
We can point to the Texans' banged-up WR room, at times questionable Bobby Slowik play-calling, and/or mediocre offensive line play as causes … but yes.
Stroud doesn't rank horribly in any of these measures, and the minor difference in PFF pass grade is a pretty good indicator that most of this is probably environment-related. Still: His status as the QB19 in fantasy points per game (14.8) through eight weeks isn't exactly what drafters signed up for.
Indianapolis Colts
- Question: Is this version of Jonathan Taylor still quite awesome?
Yes. Taylor ranks eighth at the position with +0.94 rush yards over expected per carry and has gained 100-plus total yards in four consecutive games.
That streak is awfully impressive: JT and D'Andre Swift are tied for the longest current streak with triple-digit total yards in the league; only Najee Harris, Joe Mixon, and Bijan Robinson are close with three such straight performances.
Up next: A Vikings defense that ranks first in EPA allowed per rush. Here. We. Go.
Jacksonville Jaguars
- Question: How does Tank Bigsby stack up among the league's very best rushers?
He's actually been the best, at least in terms of missed tackles forced and yards after contact per carry.
The expected return of Travis Etienne (hamstring) could limit Bigsby's touches in future weeks, but it'll be tough to keep the second-year talent off the field for long should this sort of efficiency keep up.
Kansas City Chiefs
- Question: How special has Patrick Mahomes been on scrambles this season?
Spectacular. Shoutout to the great Ben Solak for originally bringing this up, but yeah: Only six QBs have managed to pick up a first down on over half of their scrambles this season.
First down rate on scrambles in 2024 (min. 6 scrambles):
- Patrick Mahomes (63%)
- Anthony Richardson (62%)
- Drake Maye (62%)
- Jalen Hurts (53%)
- Bo Nix (52%)
- Brock Purdy (52%)
No. 1 in yards per carry on scrambles? Geno Smith (12.4). Hell yeah, brother.
Las Vegas Raiders
- Question: How good has Jakobi Meyers been without Davante Adams?
Quite good! Meyers has played three games without Adams this season and has managed to put up some pretty solid usage numbers:
- Week 4: 5 receptions-49 yards-0 TD (10 targets), PPR WR48
- Week 5: 6-72-0 (9), WR29
- Week 8: 6-52-1 (7), WR20
Admittingly not exactly world-beating stuff, but Meyers did finish last year as the WR24 in PPR points per game, and now he has a quality matchup on the horizon against the Bengals' 22nd-ranked defense in EPA allowed per dropback.
Los Angeles Chargers
- Question: Has Justin Herbert been the NFL's best QB since returning from bye?
Arguably! The film has been great, and the numbers even better:
Herbert among 42 QBs with 25-plus dropbacks in Weeks 6-8:
- EPA per dropback: +0.217 (No. 11)
- Adjusted completion rate: 80.6% (No. 7)
- Passer rating: 99.9 (No. 12)
- PFF pass grade: 90.9 (No. 1)
- Yards per attempt: 8.2 (No. 10)
Maybe not consensus world-beating stuff, but still pretty damn good considering he's not exactly cooking with the league's best group of pass-catchers. It's also been good to accordingly see the Chargers keep their foot on the gas more in the passing game: Only the Bengals (+6%) have a higher dropback rate over expected than Los Angeles (+4%) during this span.
Los Angeles Rams
- Question: Has Kyren Williams been the league's best goal line back?
He's certainly been the most productive, notching a league-high seven rushing TDs inside the five-yard line.
In fact, the efficiency is top tier as well: Only Rhamondre Stevenson (4/5, 80%) and Bo Nix (4/5, 80%) have a higher scoring percentage on goal line carries than Williams (7/10, 70%) this season. Note that Roschon Johnson (4) has the most carries with a 100% TD rate this year.
Miami Dolphins
- Question: Is De'Von Achane doing some seriously impressive stuff as a receiver?
He sure is! With 29 receptions for 244 yards and two TDs, Achane is presently pacing for 70 receptions, 593 yards, and five scores as strictly a receiver.
While the second-year talent isn't quite the position's most productive pass-catcher, he's up there!
RB most PPR points per from purely receiving:
- Rachaad White (9.9)
- Alvin Kamara (9.6)
- De'Von Achane (9.3)
- Breece Hall (8.8)
- Kenneth Walker (8.7)
Minnesota Vikings
- Question: Has Sam Darnold been taking too many sacks?
You could say that. Overall, Darnold has taken 11 sacks during his last three games and multiple in every contest other than Week 1.
This obviously has something to do with the offensive line as well, although Darnold is also one of just nine QBs responsible for taking at least five sacks on their own this season (PFF). He's also posted the ninth-highest pressure-to-sack rate (24.7%). Part of the problem is undoubtedly his high average time to throw (3.12 seconds)–tied for the second-highest mark in the league behind only Brock Purdy (3.23).
New England Patriots
- Question: Has Drake Maye's deep ball been b-e-a-utiful?
It sure has! Overall, only Trevor Lawrence (94.0) and Dak Prescott (92.8) have higher PFF pass grades on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield than Maye (92.0) this season. Only Russell Wilson (153.3) has a better passer rating than Maye (135.4) on deep balls.
Yes, we're only talking about eight total pass attempts. Also yes, Maye has made the most of them, so yay!
New Orleans Saints
- Question: Is Chris Olave one of the game's premiere separators?
That has been the case once again in 2024:
Olave rank in ESPN's Open Score:
- 2024: 79 (No. 6)
- 2023: 75 (No. 14)
- 2022: 82 (No. 7)
In terms of combined seasons: Only Diontae Johnson (89), A.J. Brown (89), Tyreek Hill (83), and CeeDee Lamb (81) have been better than Olave (79). Giddyup with Derek Carr expected to be back under center Sunday against the Panthers.
New York Giants
- Question: Has Daniel Jones meaningfully improved over the years?
Better than last year's disaster, yes, but overall? Not really. We'll use EPA per dropback as our main metric:
Jones EPA per dropback by year:
- 2024: -0.038 (No. 28)
- 2023: -0.211 (No. 42)
- 2022: +0.113 (No. 11)
- 2021: +0.012 (No. 23)
- 2020: -0.019 (No. 30)
- 2019: -0.021 (No. 28)
The Giants were certainly hopeful to see Jones build off his 2022 "breakout"–that's why they gave him $160 million after all–but that's hardly been the case for the better part of the last 14 months.
New York Jets
- Question: Has Breece Hall been pretty mediocre as a rusher this year?
Yup. Now, the Jets' 31st-ranked offensive line in rush yards before contact per carry has hardly helped matters, but any individual RB advanced metric tells a similar story. Hall's average of +0.15 rush yards over expected per carry is tied for just the 27th-best mark at the position, while he also finds himself in the wrong quadrant of this graph demonstrating the league's best RBs at breaking tackles and picking up yards after contact.
Most damning is Hall's combination of explosive plays and stuff rate: He ranks 26th in explosive run rate (11%) and trails only Rachaad White (30% vs. 26%) in percentage of carries stuffed at the line of scrimmage or for a loss.
*Note: Stats pulled prior to Week 9 TNF game.
Philadelphia Eagles
- Question: Are the Eagles the NFL's only offense without a single point scored in the first quarter?
They are! In fact, the 2024 Eagles are the only team since at least 2000 without a single point scored in the first quarter through the first eight weeks of the season. Madness.
Pittsburgh Steelers
- Question: Is Najee Harris playing better than ever?
Yup! 4.4 yards per carry? Career high. 3.3 yards after contact per carry? Career high. 26.5% tackles avoided per carry? Career high.
Things have been especially great over the past three weeks, as Harris (23) trails only James Conner (29) in forced missed tackles while also posting blistering marks in yards per carry (6) and yards after contact per carry (4.5).
Last season Jaylen Warren was clearly the more efficient back in all facets of the game, but credit to Harris for emerging as the team's best option at the position in 2024.
San Francisco 49ers
- Question: How impressive has Brock Purdy's running been this season?
Very! Consider: Purdy (39) has more fantasy points from rushing this season than Josh Allen (38.4)!
I looked at each QB's percentage of fantasy points from passing vs. rushing this season and Purdy's 75/25 split is right there with guys like Allen (77/23) and Kyler Murray (70/30) as opposed to the immobile pocket passers of the world.
This isn't to suggest Purdy has played perfect football this year, but he does deserve some credit for truly making some solid plays on the ground.
Seattle Seahawks
- Question: Has Jaxon Smith-Njigba been any better this season?
Nope. In fact, things have somehow gotten worse.
Consider: JSN ranks eighth among all WRs in targets, and his 500 air yards are within shouting distance of guys like Ja'Marr Chase (521) and Stefon Diggs (515). JSN truthers can complain about Tyler Lockett or the scheme all they want, but at some point, the 2023 first-round pick needs to step up and get it done on the football field.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Question: Does any RB get easier receptions than Rachaad White?
Nope.
White's average of -2.4 air yards per target is the second-lowest mark in the NFL, while his 5.6-yard separation mark is the 11th-highest mark. Translation: He's been fed passes on average two-and-a-half yards behind the line of scrimmage while regularly not having a single coverage defender within nearly six yards of him.
White also ranks 41st in explosive run rate (6%) and 43rd in percentage of carries stuffed for no gain or a loss (30%) among 43 RBs with 50-plus carries this season. So he's largely benefited from wide-open targets while struggling to create big plays on the ground BUT also has struggled to limit losses.
Other than that though, solid stuff.
Tennessee Titans
- Question: Has Calvin Ridley left a LOT of yards on the field?
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
The NFL's leaders in unrealized air yards this season:
- Calvin Ridley (559)
- Malik Nabers (516)
- Amari Cooper (513)
- Courtland Sutton (482)
- Rashid Shaheed (478)
Washington Commanders
- Question: Is Terry McLaurin thriving more than ever with Jayden Daniels under center?
Oh hell yeah, and it's been a lot of fun to watch!
Overall, McLaurin is averaging career-high marks in yards per target (10.2) and is on pace to set new personal records in yards (1,231) and TDs (8.5). As always: Kings stay kings.