Dwain McFarland projects the workloads for rookie running backs for fantasy football 2025.

This offseason, we've been hard at work behind the scenes on our new ceiling and floor logic, which helps us account for variance in fantasy scoring. I am proud of the work we've done because we've isolated all the stats to understand which ones offer the most variance and how that impacts future performance for different levels of players.

While our premium subscribers will learn much more about this logic as we roll out new tools this summer, today, everyone gets a sneak peek at how we can use it to gain insights in fantasy football.

What better way to do that than evaluating the rookie running back class based on their skillsets and landing spots?

Rookie Running Backs By The Numbers

To be clear, I am the limiting factor in this analysis, as we will use my baseline projections as the starting point for the median result. However, it is worth noting that we aim for a median forecast in our process, and that is more important than ever, given our new variance logic. From there, we will allow the logic to analyze each back's projected stats and provide us with a range of outcomes for PPR fantasy points per game.

Ashton Jeanty | RB | Raiders

  • Floor Projection: 12.8 PPG
  • Median Projection: 16.4 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 22.8 PPG

My median projection has Jeanty taking over the Raiders' backfield from Day 1 with 67% of the rushing attempts and a 55% route participation rate. That translates into 16.4 points per game, ranking third behind only Saquon Barkley and Bijan Robinson. If he runs well, he could reach 22 points or more per game, a number that has been reached 23 times since 2011. Yes, he is that good, y'all!!!

Takeaway: In a good runout, Jeanty could finish as the RB1 overall as a rookie.

Omarion Hampton | RB | Chargers

  • Floor Projection: 9.3 PPG
  • Median Projection: 12.0 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 17.9 PPG

Hampton's median projection is based on a gradual backfield takeover that culminates around midseason. The result would be 55% of the rushing attempts with a 40% route participation. While the median projection could be maddening for drafters early in the season, the variance logic powering his ceiling projections paints a bullish picture with 16.9 points per contest.

Takeaway: Hampton's median outcome isn't going to inspire fantasy managers, but we shouldn't assume to be so good at predicting these things—his ceiling outcome is worth the swing.

RJ Harvey | RB | Broncos

  • Floor Projection: 8.6 PPG
  • Median Projection: 11.1 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 17.1 PPG

Harvey's baseline projection isn't as easy as the backs ahead of him. He went at the end of Round 2, and while the depth chart in Denver is wide open, Sean Payton has played musical chairs with his backfields many times before. Due to these factors, I projected Harvey for 45% of the attempts with a 40% route participation rate. Still, his prowess as a plus option in the passing game and big-play ability push his ceiling near that of Hampton.

Takeaway: Harvey goes 45 picks after Hampton in best ball drafts, making him a high-priority target before the gap narrows.

Quinshon Judkins | RB | Browns

  • Floor Projection: 8.6 PPG
  • Median Projection: 11.1 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 16.8 PPG

With Judkins, the median projection assumes he takes over the early-down work from the start but gives away passing reps to other backs, like Jerome Ford and Dylan Sampson. He projects for 55% of the attempts with a 30% route participation. He offers a very similar median workload to Hampton, but on a lower-quality offense, which reduces some of the upside.

Takeaway: In a world where predictions are not always accurate, the variance in Judkins' projections is almost as promising as Hampton's. And the fact that he goes 29 picks later in fantasy drafts makes his potential even more appealing.

TreVeyon Henderson | RB | Patriots

  • Floor Projection: 7.6 PPG
  • Median Projection: 9.9 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 15.6 PPG

I have the Patriots' backfield divided into a 1A/1B split, with 46% of the attempts going to Rhamondre Stevenson and 44% going to TreVeyon Henderson. The same thing plays out in the route participation department, 38% to 35% in favor of Stevenson. 

That creates a median projection scenario of 9.9 points per game in PPR, which has your eyes glazing over. However, the ceiling projection of 15.6 is much more encouraging, and given how close this split is, Henderson doesn't have to do much to swing things in his favor with the new coaching regime of Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels.

Takeaway: Henderson's median projection doesn't benefit from an immediate takeover like some of the other profiles, but his ceiling scenario is still in a range that would make him a highly viable fantasy asset.

Kaleb Johnson | RB | Steelers

  • Floor Projection: 7.9 PPG
  • Median Projection: 10.2 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 15.2 PPG

Johnson projects to handle 53% of the rushing attempts, taking over the early-down role quickly to begin the season. However, he was not an explosive runner or a strong receiver in college, which leaves the door open for another player on the roster who excels in those areas—Jaylen Warren—to remain highly involved, especially in the passing game. Given those factors, Johnson received only a 20% route participation in his median projection.

Takeaway: Johnson's floor and median projections are stronger than Henderson's, but his potential narrow path to victory subdues his ceiling. His ceiling still offers value on Underdog as the RB25, but he shouldn't go ahead of RJ Harvey.

Jaydon Blue | RB | Cowboys

  • Floor Projection: 5.5 PPG
  • Median Projection: 7.3 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 12.1 PPG

The Cowboys' backfield is wide open with only Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders standing in the way. However, Blue was at his best in college as a receiving outlet out of the backfield. For the baseline projections of this backfield, I leaned into a three-headed attack, with Williams receiving more attempts (47%), Blue supplementing him (25%), and Sanders also remaining involved (18%). However, Blue received the second-best route participation at 30%, barely behind Williams at 35%.

Takeaway: The variance logic acknowledges how challenging it is to predict a convoluted backfield like this one, providing Blue with a low-end RB3 season within his range of outcomes. Blue is a late-round selection at pick 183 on Underdog.

Bonus: If you are wondering what Williams' range of outcomes using the new floor/ceiling logic looks like, here ya go:

  • Floor Projection: 8.4 PPG
  • Median Projection: 10.9 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 16.8 PPG

Awwwww, we know better than to think Williams has any sort of ceiling like that. Actually, we don't, and that's the whole point of using the new ceiling and floor variance logic. Now, you could argue that my 47% baseline attempt share for Williams is too high; that is fair, but it seems reasonable considering the available bodies.

Bhayshul Tuten | RB | Jaguars

  • Floor Projection: 5.3 PPG
  • Median Projection: 7.0 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 11.8 PPG

For Tuten, it's tough to use this methodology because his best-case scenario involves fully taking over the backfield at some point during the season, which is impossible for the variance model to handle in a backfield we project as a three-way split. 

I don't expect Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby to fade away just because the Jags added an RB in Round 4 of the NFL Draft. Yes, the Super Model loves Tuten, but he must earn his place in the pecking order.  So, think of this more as his early-season range of outcomes, and we will adjust as we get more information from training camp.

Currently, I have Tuten slated for 30% of the rushing attempts and a 25% route participation rate.

Takeaway: Tuten could provide RB4 value in his upside scenario early in the year, but we need more clarity around this backfield split to get a proper grip on his range of outcomes.

Bonus: If we heard that Tuten was the lead in a committee (50% attempts and 40% route participation), this is how his range of outcomes would shift:

  • Floor Projection: 8.8 PPG
  • Median Projection: 11.5 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 17.4 PPG

The scenario above more closely resembles how we could view Tuten by midseason.

Cameron Skattebo | RB | Giants

  • Floor Projection: 3.3 PPG
  • Median Projection: 4.4 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 7.8 PPG

Skattebo is in a very similar position to Tuten. Tyrone Tracy played admirably last season, and Devin Singletary is still on the roster. As much as the Rookie Super Model loves Skattebo and his receiving prowess, there isn't a way to reasonably project a Round 4 pick as anything more than a piece in a three-way committee as a starting point.

With that said, let's skip the takeaway since there isn't much of one and look at how the calculus changes for a prospect like Skattebo if he moves into a role where he gets 45% of the rushing attempts and 45% of the passing-down work.

  • Floor Projection: 8.3 PPG
  • Median Projection: 10.7 PPG
  • Ceiling Projection: 15.9 PPG