Start 'Em, Sit 'Em For Week 1 Fantasy Football: Jared Goff In A Smash Spot Versus Saints

RB Honorable Mentions: Volume Up (Monitoring backfield injuries)

Bhayshul Tuten | Jaguars

• Confidence: Borderline RB2
• Lineup Call: Tuten is a flex option in 12-team leagues and should be in most lineups that play two flex options.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 18.5
• Game Model Team Total: 25 (eight-point favorites)
• Role: LeQuint Allen may not play, which could open up more passing-down reps. While Allen's reps aren't high-value, a two-way rotation is better than three.

Chuba Hubbard | Panthers

• Confidence: High-end RB3 with Jonathon Brooks battling injury. Shifts to mid-range RB2 if Brooks doesn't play (same tier with Kyren Williams and D'Andre Swift, ahead of Skattebo and Irving).
• Lineup Call: Hubbard should be in the majority of 12- and 10-team leagues if Brooks doesn't play.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 20.2 (will climb towards 23 if Brooks is out).
• Game Model Team Total: 23.4
• Role: Should lead the backfield in touches in Week 1 and would operate as an every-down option without Brooks.

Tyler Allgeier | Cardinals

• Confidence: Currently a mid-range RB4 with Jeremiyah Love coming back from a high-ankle sprain. If Love is out, Allgeier would ascend to low-end RB2 territory.
• Lineup Call: Allgeier shouldn't be in the majority of lineups if Love plays unless you are hurting bad at RB2. He should be in most lineups if Love is out.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 14.3 (will trend towards 20 if Love is out)
• Game Model Team Total: 17.4 (10.5-point underdogs)
• Role: Should split the workload in Week 1 even if Love plays, but near every-down RB if Love is out.
• Note: Allgeier was the most-added RB this week, but is still available in 49% of Yahoo leagues. He is a nice addition if you need RB help.

RB Sits/Downgrades for Week 1 in Fantasy

Ashton Jeanty | Raiders

• Confidence: Mid-range RB2 with RB1 upside, but risky floor. If he practices in full the rest of the week, I will feel better about a high-end RB2 rank.
• Lineup Call: Jeanty should still be in most lineups, but his rank of RB18 for Week 1 is considerably lower than his RB12 ADP. In 8-team leagues, there is a chance you have two better options.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 23.3 (14.6 median, 10.8 floor)
• Game Model Team Total: 22.2 (18th); 2.5-point underdog
• Role: We could see more of a rotation, especially after Mike Washington Jr. performed well in camp and in the preseason. I still expect Jeanty to lead, but I don't expect a 70% snap share. Brock Bowers missing Week 1 could funnel targets to the backs—historically, that is the macro trade-off in targets.

Jeremiyah Love | Cardinals

• Confidence: Borderline RB2 in Week 1 coming off of a high-ankle sprain. If he practices in full the rest of the week, I will feel stronger about him as a low-end RB2 option.
• Lineup Call: Not a must-bench option, but other options should have similar workloads and are healthy: Hall, Swift, Irving, and Skattebo. Love is just outside my top 50 players—there are several WRs I like more as my flex in that range.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 18.7 (10.9 median, 7.9 floor)
• Game Model Team Total: 17.4 (second lowest); 10.5-point spread (highest)
• Matchup: The Chargers held opposing RB rooms 1.9 points below their average (ninth-hardest RB matchup) in 2025. DC Jesse Minter is gone, but the team is returning most of their key starters.
• Role: Highly uncertain in Week 1. He could make noise as a receiver—something Algeier isn't—but we could see a snap share in the 30-40% range.

Jonathan Brooks | Panthers

• Confidence: High-end RB4 option due to lack of on-field work over the last two weeks. Will move him into mid-range RB3 territory if he practices in full multiple days this week.
• Lineup Call: Brooks should only be in lineups in very deep leagues. He is barely inside my top-100, which makes him a borderline option even in 12-team leagues with two flexes.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 14.4 (8.1 median, 5.8 floor)
• Game Model Team Total: 23.4 (15th)
• Role: Significant uncertainty in Week 1, but likely behind Hubbard out of the gate if active.

Wide Receiver: Week 1 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice

WR Smash Play: Chris Olave

• Confidence: Mid-range WR1.
• Lineup Call: Olave should be in all starting lineups (duh).

Players who were the Round 3 fantasy picks aren't my focus for this article, but Olave checks a lot of boxes in Week 1, so I wanted to give him a shoutout.

With Jordyn Tyson out, he is free to make magic again with Tyler Shough. Olave posted a 29% target share and 126 air yards per game across eight contests with Shough in 2025, ranking as the No. 4 WR (18.8 PPG) over that span.

Olave plays against a Lions secondary that is healthier, but not a loaded group. Brian Branch is on IR and Terion Arnold is no longer with the team. In 2025, the Lions authored the second-highest fantasy boost to WR units at +5.7 per game. This looks like a great matchup.

Fantasy Projections

• Median: 16.5
• Xfinity Best (Ceiling): 23.9
• Floor: 12.4

Olave was drafted as the WR13, but looks even better in Week 1 as my WR6 and my No. 19 flex option.

WR Start of the Week: Luther Burden III

• Confidence: Mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.
• Lineup Call: Burden should be in almost every starting lineup unless you are in an 8-team league, where he could be a close WR2 call on some rosters.

Burden didn't play a large role as a rookie but was electric when on the field. His 2.36 YPRR (including the playoffs) ranks 10th for a rookie since 2011. His 24% TPRR ranks 17th. Those marks compare well with names like Zay Flowers and Ladd McConkey.

With DJ Moore out of the picture and a thin depth chart behind him, Burden is headed for a full-time role in 2026. With Rome Odunze trying to make his way back from a calf injury, we could see even more of the offense flow through Burden in Week 1.

The Bears sport a 24.4 team total in Freedman's NFL Game Model—the No. 9 mark for the week. 

Fantasy Projections

• Median: 13.1
• Xfinity Best (Ceiling): 21.1
• Floor: 9.7

Burden was the WR23 in drafts this summer but immediately clocks in as a mid-range WR2 to start the 2026 campaign. He is my WR18, which is the highest on the team. His consensus rank is WR22.

Week 1 Fantasy WR Starts – Honorable Mentions:

Parker Washington | Jaguars

• Confidence: Washington was the WR30 in ADP in drafts, but checks in as the WR22 in the projection model in Week 1.
• Lineup Call: Washington is a top-50 option for me in Week 1, meaning he should be in most starting lineups in 10- and 12-team formats.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 19.9 (12.4 median, 9.1 floor)
• Game Model Team Total: 25 (6th)
• Role: Washington has had a fantastic offseason and is set to play the star role in Liam Coen's offense as the move player. He averaged 18.3 PPG in eight healthy contests with a 27% target share in that role last year.

Chris Godwin | Buccaneers

• Confidence: High-end WR3 with WR2 upside. Pretty nice for the WR36 in ADP!
• Lineup Call: Godwin should be in most lineups in 12-team leagues as a WR2 or flex option—especially in PPR formats. He is my WR27 and my No. 54 flex option (RB-WR-TE).
• Xfinity Best Projection: 18.7 (12.2 median, 9.0 floor)
• Game Model Team Total: 23.4 (14th)
• Role: Mike Evans is gone, which automatically unlocks the potential for a significant volume bump for Godwin. Additionally, Emeka Egbuka (toe) and Jalen McMillan (knee) just returned to practice this week and might not be 100%. Godwin should be the No. 1 or No. 2 target for Baker Mayfield against the Bengals.

WR Sits/Downgrades in Week 1 Fantasy Football

Terry McLaurin | Commanders

• Confidence: Mid-range WR3.
• Lineup Call: McLaurin should still be in most lineups but comes in as my WR29 after getting drafted as a low-end WR2 this summer. He is benchable in shallow leagues.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 18.3 (11.9 median, 8.7 floor)
• Game Model Team Total: 20.6 (24th)
• Matchup: The Eagles held opposing WR corps to 4.2 points below their average last season—the fourth-worst matchup. They are returning many of their key starters but could be light in the pass-rush department in Week 1 if Jonathan Greenard (pectoral strain) can't play.
• Role: McLaurin is the de facto WR1 for the Commanders but has new target competition from Stefon Diggs and Chig Okonkwo.

DJ Moore | Bills

• Confidence: Moore was drafted as a low-end WR2, but he clocks in as a mid-range WR3 in Week 1 due to one of the toughest matchups against Houston. He is the WR32 in the projection model.
• Lineup Call: Moore should still be in most starting lineups, but is benchable in smaller leagues where the likelihood of two better options improves.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 18.9 (11.2 median, 8.1 floor)
• Game Model Team Total: 22.7 (16th)
• Matchup: The Texans held opposing WR units to 4.6 PPG under their season average in 2025—the second-hardest matchup. And they are returning their key starters.
• Role: Moore should be a full-time option, but the Bills do love a good rotation, which we saw in the preseason with the starters.

Emeka Egbuka | Buccaneers

• Confidence: Egbuka was a Round 3 fantasy draft target for me before his toe sprain. He returned to practice this week, but I am approaching Week 1 with some caution. He is a mid-range WR3.
• Lineup Call: Moore should still be in most starting lineups, but is benchable in smaller leagues where the likelihood of two better options on your roster is higher.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 18.9 (11.2 median, 8.1 floor)
• Game Model Team Total: 22.7 (16th)
• Role: He will play the Z in three-WR sets with Godwin in the slot. But both WRs should remain on the field in two-WR looks. They are the clear-cut favorites to dominate targets.

Tight End: Week 1 Start-Sit Advice

Start of the Week: Dallas Goedert

• Confidence: Mid-range TE1.
• Lineup Call: Goedert is a strong floor TE1 option in Week 1.

Goedert has been a mid-to-low TE1 in yards per game over the last three seasons, which is the No. 1 signal for future TE production. Now, A.J. Brown is gone. Over the last two seasons, the veteran TE has notched a 32% target share with a 2.69 YPRR (elite marks) on 140 routes without Brown.

DeVonta Smith is set to take a step forward, and Makai Lemon will play a role as well, but we can't project them to take on all of Brown's work. With rookie Eli Stowers struggling, Goedert's early-season playing time appears safe. He could be on the field for 80% or more of pass plays.

The Eagles have the eighth-best team total in Freedman's model, and the Commanders saw the sixth-largest boost to TEs last season. But Sonny Styles, Leo Chenal, and Nick Cross might make things harder on opponents in 2026.

Fantasy Projections

• Median: 9.67
• Xfinity Best (Ceiling): 15.1
• Floor: 7.1

Goedert is my TE6 for Week 1, trailing only Mr. Matthew Berry, who knows a thing or two about the Commanders' defense. The veteran TE has a consensus rank of TE8.

Week 1 Fantasy TE Starts – Honorable Mentions:

Juwan Johnson | Saints

• Confidence: Projects as a low-end TE1 in Week 1.
• Lineup Call: Startable in most formats. In the same tier as Dalton Kincaid and Mark Andrews.
• Xfinity Best Projection: 14.9 (9.9 median, 7.4 floor)
• Role: With Tyson sidelined, Johnson is the favorite to operate as the No. 2 option behind Olave. He was the TE8 last year, finishing inside the top-12 in 9 of 17 games.

Sicko Starts For Week 1 Fantasy Football

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers who are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and three flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup, but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you too!

We are looking for players with a rostership under 50% who aren't in many starting lineups.

Let's go, you sickos.

Tyler Shough | QB | Saints

Shough is rostered in 40% of leagues but starts in only 6% of lineups.

We already have two Saints in this column, so why not make it a third? Shough averaged 250 yards with 17.2 PPG in nine games as the starter in his rookie campaign.

And the Saints will need to get things going through the air to keep up with the Lions. New Orleans is a seven-point underdog against the high-powered attack of the Lions. 

The biggest argument against Shough this offseason was his easy 2025 schedule. Well, the Lions aren't exactly an elite defense.

Projection Model: 

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 21.4
• Median: 16.2
• Floor: 12.9

Shough is a mid-range QB2 with low-end QB1 upside. He is in the same tier as Baker Mayfield and Jordan Love this weekend. He ranks ahead of Patrick Mahomes.

Woody Marks | RB | Texans

Marks is rostered in 50% of leagues and in 2% of starting lineups.

Over the last month, there has been a consistent drumbeat about an expanded role for Marks that could split closer to 50-50 with David Montgomery. Oddsmakers are in alignment, with Montgomery coming in with a rushing attempt prop of 12.5—far lower than many fantasy drafters would expect after spending a Round 4-5 pick on Monty.

In Week 1, the Texans face the Bills, who invite opponents to attack with their RBs. That approach helped fuel a 2.9-point-per-game boost (seventh highest) for opposing RB units in 2025. The team gets Ed Oliver back, who played only 124 snaps last year, but this front seven is a work in progress with multiple question marks.

Projection Model: 

• Xfinity Best (ceiling): 12.8
• Median: 7.3
• Floor: 5.2

Look. We don't call these SICKO starts for nothing. But Marks' profiles as a mid-range RB4 in Week 1 if you are hurting at the RB spot.

Ja'Kobi Lane | WR | Ravens

Lane is on only 20% of rosters on Yahoo and in 0% of starting lineups.

The Ravens' Round 3 Draft pick made noise throughout training camp and is the favorite to operate as the WR3 out of the gate. And there is a chance he challenges Rashod Bateman for work more quickly than expected.

Lane can make the tough catches and offers upside as a plus red-zone option in an offense with a 25.3 team total—the fifth-best mark in Week 1.

I love bets on players like Lane as SICKO calls because if we hit, we could also be a week early on the next big waiver wire name.

Fantasy Projections

• Median: 7.2
• Xfinity Best (Ceiling): 12.0
• Floor: 5.1

Lane is a low-end WR5 option, in the same tier as Devaughn Vele, Khalil Shakir, and Adonai Mitchell. But unlike those names, if he smashes in Week 1, he will be a huge waiver wire target in Week 2.
 

Runner Up: Chris Bell, Dolphins.

Michael Mayer | TE | Raiders

With Brock Bowers out for 1-2 games, Mayer steps into a starting role for the Raiders. The former Round 2 draft pick has not been able to get much going in his career to this point, but he ranks No. 7 all-time in the Rookie Super Model. His 92 Production Rating ranks third in the database dating back to 2018.

Last year, Mayer averaged 7.9 PPG in three contests without Bowers. But that was with Jakobi Meyers still on the team. The target competition is even lower this time around.

Fantasy Projections

• Median: 9.1
• Xfinity Best (Ceiling): 13.9
• Floor: 6.7

Mayer is a mid-range TE2 with low-end TE1 upside in Week 1 against the Dolphins.