TE Rankings Downgrades For Week 6 Fantasy Football: Travis Kelce & More

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve as automatic downgrades to whatever TEs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP matrix, as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Rams and Jets are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for TEs.

• Rams: No. 1 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (-66.9%)
• Jets: No. 2 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (5.8)

Here be dragons.

Trey McBride (Cardinals) at Rams: McBride has been his typical awesome self this year (14.0 fantasy points per game, 42-308-3 receiving, 56 targets, 97 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). But the matchup is brutal: The Rams are No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed (4.6) and smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-6.7). And last year in his two games against the Rams, McBride underwhelmed (9.2 fantasy points per game, 12-123-0 receiving, 17 targets). Additionally, the Cards are on their third road game in four weeks, while the Rams are on their second straight home game.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) vs. Jets: No. 2 WR Mack Hollins (calf, IR) exited Week 4 early, and in his absence Henry has been a functional contributor over the past two games (10.3 fantasy points per game, 8-106-1 receiving, 9 targets, 68 Utilization Score). Without No. 1 WR A.J. Brown (ankle, IR) and Hollins and maybe even No. 2 RB TreVeyon Henderson (ankle), Henry could continue to see regular work this week. And the setup isn't bad: Over the past 16 games, the Pats have had the league's No. 2 home-field advantage (+9.90, per NFElo), and QB Drake Maye has been his best in division (9-2 ATS, 56.0% ROI, per Action Network). But the Pats have a drastically reduced home-field advantage in this spot because the Jets play in division on a similar turf surface in a similar outdoor stadium. Plus, the Jets are No. 4 in defensive pass DVOA vs. TEs (-32.8%). I can't imagine feeling good about starting Henry in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Scoring Downgrades In My TE Rankings For Week 6: Travis Kelce vs. Chargers & Darren Waller at Eagles

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the TEs."

This week the Chiefs are No. 7 in implied team total (25.5 points vs. 29.5), and the Panthers are No. 21 (20.0 vs. 30.3).

Downgrades warranted.

Travis Kelce (Chiefs) vs. Chargers: The Chiefs should be fresh off the bye, but there are reasons to be pessimistic. They've had the league's No. 3 worst home-field advantage over the past five years (-0.61), and it doesn't get a boost hosting the division-rival Chargers, against whom QB Patrick Mahomes has notably struggled (4-8-2 ATS, -31.0% ROI). Plus, we tend not to see many points in general at Arrowhead Stadium: No QB has been more profitable to the under at home than Mahomes (50-30-1, 19.7% ROI). Kelce could see more usage without WRs Rashee Rice (hamstring) and Tyquan Thornton (ankle), who both suffered injuries in Week 4, but the Chargers are No. 2 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (-5.5), even with SS Derwin James (hamstring) missing the past two games.

Darren Waller (Panthers) at Eagles: Coming off the bye, the Panthers have traveled little over the past month (1,547 miles), whereas the Eagles, coming off the London game, have traveled a lot (9,098 miles). Plus, they might be without SS Marcus Epps (groin) and No. 3 S Michael Carter (abdomen). But Waller is a boom/bust player: In one game this year, he has had more than 16.0 fantasy points, but in his remaining three games, he's had fewer than 8.0. The Panthers are uncertain to have RT Monroe Freeling (knee) and LG Damien Lewis (elbow), and the Eagles have a boosted home-field advantage because the Panthers are outside division and on grass (vs. turf).

Week 6 TE Rankings Offensive Injury Downgrade: Cade Otton vs. Steelers

Here's one TE who gets a downgrade because of injuries to a supporting offensive player.

Cade Otton (Buccaneers) vs. Steelers: The setup for the Bucs is good. They have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and this is their fourth game in five weeks at home, where they have an amplified advantage because the Steelers are outside division and conference. And the Steelers are without SS DeShon Elliott (knee, IR). But as long as QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) is out, Otton should be downgraded. In his two games without Mayfield this year, Otton has been … "forgOtton" (4.9 fantasy points per game, 7-62-0 receiving, 10 targets). Gotta end there. I "otton" not try to top that one.

Notes

Week 6 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Lions, Bengals, Vikings, and Dolphins are off.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)