RB Rankings Downgrades For Week 6 Fantasy Football: Pump The Brakes On Bhayshul Tuten?

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever RBs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Jaguars and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for RBs.

• Jaguars: No. 1 in defensive rush DVOA (-36.8%)
• Seahawks: No. 2 in defensive rush EPA (-0.232)

Here be dragons.

Woody Marks (Texans) vs. Jaguars (in London): This is theoretically a spot where Marks could assert himself given that No. 1 RB David Montgomery (groin) exited with an injury last week, which resulted in Marks having his best game of the season in terms of both production (10.5 fantasy points, 85 yards, 0 TDs on 15 carries, 4 targets) and usage (84% snap rate, 60% rush share, 50% goal-line rush share, 75% route rate, 80 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). But let's be honest: Marks is not a good player (3.5 yards per carry, 4.2 yards per target this year). On top of that, the Jags have a significant travel edge in that they're playing their second straight game in London, whereas the Texans are flying there this week (league-worst 4,200 miles).

J.K. Dobbins (Broncos) vs. Seahawks: Dobbins easily had his best performance of the season last week (14.4 fantasy points, 74 yards, 1 TD on 18 carries, 2 targets, 67 Utilization Score), but for most of the campaign he has merely pretended to dabble with fantasy relevance (6.7 fantasy points per game, 251 yards, 1 TD on 64 carries, 6 targets, 44 Utilization Score). Aside from the fact that he's in a three-man committee, his primary problem is the offense: The Broncos have failed to score even 24 points in every game but one, and I doubt they will be able to figure out their issues with short prep time. The setup is decent: The Broncos have had the No. 3 home-field advantage over the past five years (+6.94, per NFElo), and they have a boosted HFA against the Seahawks because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). Even so, I can't imagine feeling good about starting Dobbins in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Scoring Downgrades In My Week 6 RB Ranks: Emanuel Wilson at Broncos & Chuba Hubbard at Eagles

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the RBs."

This week the Seahawks are No. 14 in implied team total (22.5 points vs. 26.8), and the Panthers are No. 21 (20.0 vs. 30.2).

Downgrades warranted.

Emanuel Wilson (Seahawks) at Broncos: Over the past two weeks without rookie first-round RB Jadarian Price, Wilson has been the clear lead back for the team (18.9 fantasy points per game, 192 yards, 3 TDs on 41 carries, 6 targets, 84 Utilization Score). But as noted earlier in the J.K. Dobbins blurb, the setup is poor for the Seahawks: The Broncos have had the No. 3 home-field advantage over the past five years (+6.94), and they have a boosted HFA against the Seahawks because they're outside division and conference and on grass (vs. turf). On top of that, QB Sam Darnold, for his career, has underwhelmed with just four days to prep (2-5 ATS, -47.1% ROI, per Action Network).

Chuba Hubbard (Panthers) at Eagles: Coming off the bye, the Panthers have traveled little over the past month (1,547 miles), whereas the Eagles, coming off the London game, have traveled a lot (9,098 miles). Additionally, with No. 2 RB Jonathon Brooks (abdomen, IR) out since Week 3, Hubbard looked like one of the league's best backs in his two games before the break (19.2 fantasy points per game, 239 yards, 2 TDs on 39 carries, 6 targets, 87 Utilization Score). But he's uncertain to have RT Monroe Freeling (knee) and LG Damien Lewis (elbow), and the Eagles have a boosted home-field advantage because the Panthers are outside division and on grass (vs. turf). The Eagles' defense could be without EDGEs Jonathan Greenard (ankle) and Jalyx Hunt (ankle), but this still might be the hardest matchup Hubbard has faced to this point this year.

Week 6 Road Dog Downgrades In The RB Rankings: Jacory Croskey-Merritt at 49ers & Omarion Hampton at Chiefs

In general, I want to be light on RBs who are underdogs on the road, where they could disappoint through no real fault of their own and then lose opportunities to backups in garbage time.

Here are two such RBs who stand out.

Jacory Croskey-Merritt (Commanders) at 49ers: On the one hand, Croskey-Merritt has been serviceable in the two full games QB Jayden Daniels has played (13.2 fantasy points per game, 138 yards, 2 TDs on 27 carries, 1 target). On the other hand, he's actually the No. 2 RB in a full-blown timeshare with teammate Rachaad White (49% snap rate, 50 Utilization Score vs. 45%, 50), and White is the more utilized back in pass situations (41% route rate vs. 23%) and in two-minute scenarios (100% snap rate vs. 6%). As +7.5 road dogs, the Commanders could rely on White way more than "Bill" against the 49ers, who are No. 4 in defensive rush EPA (-0.215). And it doesn't help that the Commanders have traveled more than almost any other team over the past month (10,944 miles) and are heading west for a primetime game way outside their normal 1 pm ET kickoff window.

Omarion Hampton (Chargers) at Chiefs: The Chiefs are coming off the bye, and the Chargers are playing their third road game in four weeks. Philosophically, I want to like the Chargers and Hampton in this spot. QB Justin Herbert has done well in the past against Chiefs HC Andy Reid (8-2-1 ATS, 52.6% ROI), as has HC Jim Harbaugh (5-0-1 ATS, 80.0% ROI). Additionally, Herbert has dominated in division (22-11-1 ATS, 28.0% ROI). But this season Hampton has been only marginally functional (9.4 fantasy points per game, 306 yards, 3 TDs on 73 carries, 6 targets, 51 Utilization Score), and last week he found himself in an ugly three-man committee (32% snap rate, 43% rush share, 9% route rate, 36 Utilization Score). Now he has a tough matchup against the Chiefs, who are No. 3 in defensive rush SR (33.7%), and his OL has been decimated: LT Rashawn Slater (ankle, IR) and C Tyler Biadasz (knee, IR) are out, and RT Joe Alt (neck) and LG Kayode Awosika (lower leg) are questionable. At some point, Hampton and the 0-5 Chargers will bounce back … but not this week.

Offensive Injury Downgrades In My Week 6 RB Rankings: Bhayshul Tuten vs. Texans & Bucky Irving vs. Steelers

Here are a couple of RBs who get downgrades because of injuries to supporting offensive players.

Bhayshul Tuten (Jaguars) vs. Texans (in London): As noted earlier in the Marks section, the Jags have a significant travel edge in that they're playing their second straight game in London, whereas the Texans are flying there this week (league-worst 4,200 miles). Plus, Tuten has taken over more of the backfield over the past two games (80% rush share, 45% route rate, 73 Utilization Score in Weeks 4-5 vs. 54%, 33%, 58 in Weeks 1-3). But the Texans are No. 3 in defensive rush DVOA (-26.9%), and LT Anton Harrison (knee) is questionable.

Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) vs. Steelers: Yeah, Irving went off last week (30.5 fantasy points, 175 yards, 2 TDs on 21 carries, 3 targets, 82 Utilization Score), but that was against the Cowboys. This week is different. OK, fine, the setup for the Bucs is good: They have a three-day edge coming off Thursday Night Football, and this is their fourth game in five weeks at home, where they have an amplified advantage because the Steelers are outside division and conference. But as long as QB Baker Mayfield (thumb) is out, Irving should be downgraded against the average "non-Cowboys professional defense," and that's what the Steelers have. In Week 4 without Mayfield, Irving was just a committee back (57% snap rate, 49 Utilization Score).

Notes

Week 6 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

• Introduction
• QB Favorites
• QB Fades
• RB Favorites
• RB Fades
• WR Favorites
• WR Fades
• TE Favorites
• TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Lions, Bengals, Vikings, and Dolphins are off.

Market Odds: As of Monday afternoon.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.

• Tue AM: Publish
• Thu AM: Refresh
• Thu PM: Make necessary TNF changes
• Sat PM: Update
• Sun AM: Revise
• Sun PM: Finalize based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a seven-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop bettor. 

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.

• Against the Spread (ATS)
• Over/Under (O/U)
• Return on Investment (ROI)
• Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
• Expected Points Added (EPA)
• Success Rate (SR)
• Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
• Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
• Average Depth of Target (aDOT)