Week 10 RB Rankings: Rico Dowdle, Kyle Monangai and More
Matthew Freedman presents his favorite running back plays for Week 10 in fantasy football, featuring Kyle Monangai, Rico Dowdle and more.
It's Week 10.
Double digits.
We've now halfway through the NFL regular season.
Traditionally, this is the point in the year when I start binge listening to either Crosby Still Nash & Young or random Star Wars-focused podcasts while updating my spreadsheets and going for long solitary walks by myself around a nearby lake.
But not this year.
This year, I'm locked in. It's still 100% fantasy podcasts for me with no ambulatory diversions.
We're less than a month away from Thanksgiving—and then the week after that is the final one of the fantasy regular season. The end isn't quite in sight, but it will be soon.
Now is no time to let up.
In the recent words of Chase Brown: "We just gotta finish … Finish. Finish. Finish."
Let's get into the Week 10 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my Week 10 fantasy rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 10 Running Back Rankings
Rico Dowdle Should Dominate Saints in Week 10
Panthers HC Dave Canales indicated this past week that Rico Dowdle would lead the backfield on Sunday—and that's exactly what we saw as he piled up 141 yards and 2 TDs on 25 carries and 3 targets in a 16-13 road win over the Packers.
In three games this year, Dowdle has had a snap rate of at least 70%. In each of those games, Dowdle has posted top-2 fantasy finishes.
- Week 5 (vs. MIA): 70% snap rate | 30.9 points (No. 1)
- Week 6 (vs. DAL): 90% snap rate | 31.9 points (No. 2)
- Week 9 (at GB): 74% snap rate | 27.1 points (No. 2)
And if we widen the sample to see what Dowdle has done since Week 3, he still has 832 yards and 5 TDs in seven games.
The dude is absolutely balling right now—and I don't see why that should stop in Week 10.
The Panthers are consensus 5.5-point home favorites, so Dowdle could see 20+ opportunities once again in a run-friendly game script.
The Panthers are in Carolina at Bank of America Stadium, where since last year they've had the NFL's No. 2 home-field advantage (+9.75, per NFElo).
And they're playing the Saints, who last week allowed Kyren Williams and Blake Corum to combine for 38-172-1 rushing.
This is the definition of a smash spot: I expect Dowdle to dominate, and he's now firmly a mid-range RB1.
Will Bucky Irving Return to Action in Week 10?
Bucky Irving (foot, shoulder) has been out since Week 5, so it might be easy to forget how good he was to open the year, but in Weeks 1-4 he put up 430 yards and 2 TDs on 71 carries, 19 targets, and an elite 92 Utilization Score (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
In the first month of the season, Irving was the No. 3 RB in usage, and that's not a fluke: Last year, he put up 1,039 yards and 5 TDs in the final 10 games.
Irving's not guaranteed to return to action this week—but I'm optimistic. Traditionally, teams tie their "injury return" strategy to the bye when possible.
If the Buccaneers had already had their bye when Irving suffered his injury, he might've missed only 2-3 games. But because the team had a Week 9 bye, the Bucs might've decided to give Irving extra time off in order to let him recover more fully. Otherwise, if he were to miss Week 10, the Bucs would've been better off sending him to IR immediately.
So I tentatively expect Irving to return this week.
On the one hand, the matchup isn't great: The Patriots are No. 3 in fewest fantasy points allowed to RBs (14.5).
On the other hand, the Bucs are 2.5-point home favorites with seven extra days of rest, and four teams are on bye.
Kyle Monangai Could Continue the Breakout in Week 10
Let's look at what we know: Kyle Monangai is a seventh-round rookie who didn't have even a top-30 RB score in the 2025 Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model (58).
He had a strong performance this past week (198 yards on 26 carries, 5 targets) … but it came against the Bengals, who are No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (30.7).
And his breakout came with starter D'Andre Swift (groin) on the sideline.
So let's not act as if Monangai is a guaranteed league-winner.
But we also know this: Swift's injury has been an issue for a while, and he didn't practice at all last week before being ruled out on Friday, which means that he could miss this week as well.
And the matchup is once again a great one: The Giants are No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.154, per RBs Don't Matter) and defensive rush DVOA (16.8%, per FTN), and they are notably hampered in their front seven with injuries to LBs Micah McFadden (leg, IR), Chris Board (chest, IR) and Darius Muasau (ankle).
If Swift is once again out, Monangai could see some serious run as a 3.5-point home favorite, and I have the Bears as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.
The Checkdown
De'Von Achane (Dolphins) vs. Bills: Even last week in a 28-6 loss, Achane did his thing with 106 yards. For the season, he now has 880 yards and 7 TDs on 121 carries, 60 targets, and an elite 92 Utilization Score. The Dolphins have three extra days off after Thursday Night Football, and at home with QB Tua Tagovailoa, they're 23-14 ATS (21.7% ROI, per Action Network). The Bills are No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (6.0%).
Kyren Williams (Rams) at 49ers: In Week 5, Williams had 131 yards and 2 TDs on 14 carries and 10 targets against the 49ers. Last year, he had 228 yards and 3 TDs in two games. The year before that, 100 yards and 2 TDs in one game. The 49ers are without EDGEs Nick Bosa (knee, IR), Yetur Gross-Matos (knee, IR) and Mykel Williams (knee), and LB Fred Warner (ankle, IR).
David Montgomery (Lions) at Commanders: Even in a down year, Montgomery still has 501 yards and 5 TDs in eight games, and last week he had more carries (11 vs. 9) and targets (4 vs. 3) than No. 1 RB Jahmyr Gibbs. He should benefit from a run-heavy game script as an 8.5-point favorite, and the Commanders are without EDGEs Dorance Armstrong (knee, IR), Deatrich Wise (knee, IR) and Javontae Jean-Baptiste (pectoral, IR).
Devin Singletary (Giants) at Bears: Without No. 1 RB Cam Skattebo (ankle, IR), the veteran Singletary shared the backfield with Tyrone Tracy and put up 51 yards on 8 carries and 2 targets. For the Bears, DT Shemar Turner (knee, IR) is out, and EDGEs Dayo Odeyingbo (ankle) and Dominique Robinson (ankle) are questionable.
Emanuel Wilson (Packers) vs. Eagles: This is basically just a callout that Wilson is a worthy handcuff pickup, but it also doesn't hurt that the Packers are 2.5-point home favorites. The Eagles are No. 28 in defensive rush SR (45.6%).
Notes on my Week 10 RB Rankings
Byes: This week the Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals and Titans are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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