Week 10 WR Rankings: Christian Watson, Josh Downs and More
Matthew Freedman highlights his favorite wide receivers from his Week 10 fantasy football rankings.
It's Week 10.
Double digits.
We're now halfway through the NFL regular season.
Traditionally, this is the point in the year when I start binge-listening to either Crosby Still Nash & Young or random Star Wars-focused podcasts while updating my spreadsheets and going for long, solitary walks by myself around a nearby lake.
But not this year.
This year, I'm locked in. It's still 100% fantasy podcasts for me with no ambulatory diversions.
We're a month away from Thanksgiving—and then the week after that is the final one of the fantasy regular season. The end isn't quite in sight, but it will be soon.
Now is no time to let up.
In the recent words of Chase Brown: "We just gotta finish. … Finish. Finish. Finish."
Let's get into the Week 10 WR edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …
- Favorable betting factors and situational spots
- Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
- Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)
For process notes regarding this series, my Week 10 fantasy rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays.
To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.
Week 10 Wide Receiver Rankings
Josh Downs Gets Week 10 Upgrade
Last year, Downs had one of the league's highest target rates among full-time WRs (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
- No. 1: Puka Nacua (35%)
- No. 2: Rashee Rice (32%)
- No. 3: Malik Nabers (30%)
- No. 4: Josh Downs (28%)
- No. 5: CeeDee Lamb (28%)
- No. 6: Nico Collins (27%)
- No. 7: Drake London (28%)
- No. 8: Mike Evans (26%)
- No. 9: Davante Adams (26%)
- No. 10: Jauan Jennings (26%)
This year, though, he has seen a dip in both his route rate (75% to 65%) and target rate (28% to 24%).
As a result, he's now No. 4 on the Colts—behind WR Michael Pittman (24%), TE Tyler Warren (20%) and WR Alec Pierce (19%)—in target share (18%).
And he has an even smaller share of air yards (16%).
His 53 Utilization Score is almost extreme in its modesty.
But he's at least No. 1 on the team in endzone target share (33%), and over his past four games he has been moderately productive (21-192-3 receiving, 27 targets).
And this week he has an exploitable matchup in Germany against the Falcons, who could be without CB Billy Bowman in the slot, where Downs plays the supermajority of his snaps.
Last week, the Falcons without Bowman allowed DeMario Douglas to go off for 4-100-1 receiving on six targets. The week before that, Malik Washington with 4-36-1 on five.
If Bowman is out, Downs will have a shot to lead the Colts in receiving this week.
Rashid Shaheed Gets Week 10 Boost With Seahawks
As expected, the Saints this week traded one of their WRs: Rashid Shaheed.
I'm skeptical that Shaheed will see more target volume with the Seahawks, but the quality of his targets should significantly improve, especially since Saints WRs have the toughest second-half schedule. Shaheed got out of New Orleans at the right time.
I don't want to make too much of this, but with this trade, Shaheed reunites with OC Klint Kubiak, who was his play caller last year with the Saints. In his abbreviated six-game 2024 campaign, Shaheed had 378 yards and three TDs on 41 targets and six carries (as well as a punt return TD).
And with injuries to WRs Cooper Kupp (heel, hamstring), Jake Bobo (Achilles), and Dareke Young (quadriceps), Shaheed should have plenty of opportunities right away to establish himself within the Seahawks offense.
And that starts this week against the Cardinals, who are on a one-day rest-and-preparation deficit and their second straight road game. Additionally, they probably won't have CB Max Melton (concussion).
I expect the Seahawks to give their new WR a couple of shots to make some big plays in his first week with the team.
For more, check out our 2025 NFL trade deadline tracker.
Christian Watson Is Overflowing With Week 10 Upside
There's nothing spectacular about the target volume Christian Watson has seen over the past two games since returning in Week 8 from last year's season-ending knee injury: Four and four.
But with those targets, Watson has been No. 2 on the team with a 36% share of air yards, which he has leveraged into 143 yards receiving.
On the one hand, that's unsustainable. Watson won't continue to average 17.9 yards per target, and his 23.1 aDOT is highly likely to come down.
On the other hand, Watson is a bona fide big-play merchant with career marks of 10.0 yards per target and a 15.9 aDOT. He should continue to produce at an efficient rate—and I would expect his usage to increase now that TE Tucker Kraft (knee, IR) is out for the year.
On top of that, WRs Matthew Golden (shoulder) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) are questionable with injuries, and WR Jayden Reed (shoulder, IR) is uncertain to be activated for this game.
Watson's boom/bust nature makes him risky in Guillotine Leagues™, but he's a WR4 with upside.
I'll say here what I said last week: From here on out, Watson has a real chance to lead the Packers WRs in fantasy scoring.
Jakobi Meyers Should Benefit From Week 10 Trade
The Raiders traded No. 1 WR Jakobi Meyers to the Jaguars earlier this week. While I doubt it will make a big difference to his long-term production, the trade could be good for Meyers in the short term because of how injured the Jags at the WR position.
- No. 1 WR Brian Thomas (ankle): Questionable
- No. 2 WR Travis Hunter (knee, IR): Out
- No. 3 WR Dyami Brown (concussion): Questionable
- No. 5 WR Tim Patrick (groin): Questionable
Thomas left Week 10 early, and although he's dealing with only a "low-grade" high-ankle sprain (per ESPN's Adam Schefter), that's still the kind of injury that's likely to sideline him this week.
Hunter is out. Brown exited Week 10 with a concussion, which usually results in a one-week absence.
And Patrick missed last week after suffering an injury in Week 7.
So Meyers could see a ton of volume as the No. 1 pass catcher in the Jags offense this week.
Sure, he's facing the Texans (No. 1 with a -19.7% defensive pass DVOA), and QB Trevor Lawrence has a rookie-esque 6.0 AY/A in his first year with offensive HC Liam Coen—but if Thomas and Brown are both out, it will be hard for Meyers not to earn 8+ targets this week.
The Deep Route
DJ Moore (Bears) vs. Giants: Feel however you want about Moore, but since the team's Week 5 bye he has outpaced Rome Odunze in usage (58 vs. 53 Utilization Score) and production (269 yards, two TDs vs. 177 yards), and last week he was the No. 3 WR in fantasy (21.0 points). The Giants could be without CBs Paulson Adebo (knee) and Cor'Dale Flott (concussion) and FS Jevon Holland (knee). The Bears are consensus 3.5-point home favorites, but I have them as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.
Wan'Dale Robinson (Giants) at Bears: Since Week 4—when No. 1 WR Malik Nabers (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury—Robinson has had a snap rate of at least 94% in every game with 32-317-1 receiving on 46 targets. The Bears are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (31.8).
Jameson Williams (Lions) at Commanders: Williams last week had 4-66-1 receiving on six targets out of the bye, and now he faces a secondary dealing with injuries to CBs Marshon Lattimore (knee) and Trey Amos (hip), SS Will Harris (leg, IR) and FS Quan Martin (hamstring).
Khalil Shakir (Bills) at Dolphins: Shakir has a solid 13-131-1 receiving on 15 targets since the Week 7 bye, and for the year he's the No. 2 WR in yards after catch (349). The Dolphins are No. 31 in defensive dropback SR (52.8%, per RBs Don't Matter), and CB Rasul Douglas (toe) and FS Ashtyn Davis (quad) could be out.
Troy Franklin (Broncos) vs. Raiders: I'm not saying he's the No. 1 WR for the Broncos, but over the past eight weeks Franklin has a higher target share (22% vs. 21%), air yard share (33% vs. 32%), and endzone target share (38% vs. 25%) than Courtland Sutton. The Raiders are No. 6 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (30.7).
Malik Washington (Dolphins) vs. Bills: I mention Washington almost every week, but that's because he has 5+ targets in all but one of his games this year without No. 1 WR Tyreek Hill (knee, IR). Plus he gets regular work as a runner (12-74-0 rushing this year) and returner (one punt return TD). He has three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and the Bills could be without slot CB Taron Johnson (groin). Washington is a deep-league streamer.
Cedric Tillman (Browns) at Jets: The Browns expect Tillman (hamstring, IR) to return this week out of the bye, and over the past year the Jets have parted ways with CBs Sauce Gardner (trade), D.J. Reed (free agency), Michael Carter (trade), and Brandin Echols (free agency). Unsurprisingly, they're No. 31 in defensive pass DVOA (38.6%, per FTN).
Notes For My Week 10 WR Rankings
Byes: This week, the Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals, and Titans are on bye.
Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.
Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.
- Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
- Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
- Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
- Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
- Sun AM: Revise rankings
- Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff
Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.
Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.
Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).
Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
- Short Down and Distance (SDD)
- Long Down and Distance (LDD)
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