Week 10 TE Rankings: Colston Loveland, Dalton Kincaid and More

It's Week 10.

Double digits.

We've now halfway through the NFL regular season.

Traditionally, this is the point in the year when I start binge listening to either Crosby Still Nash & Young or random Star Wars-focused podcasts while updating my spreadsheets and going for long solitary walks by myself around a nearby lake.

But not this year.

This year, I'm locked in. It's still 100% fantasy podcasts for me with no ambulatory diversions.

We're less than a month away from Thanksgiving—and then the week after that is the final one of the fantasy regular season. The end isn't quite in sight, but it will be soon.

Now is no time to let up.

In the recent words of Chase Brown: "We just gotta finish … Finish. Finish. Finish."

Let's get into the Week 10 RB edition of Freedman's Favorites, where I highlight guys I'm upgrading because of …

Favorable betting factors and situational spots
Advantageous defensive matchups (perhaps aided by injury)
Increased usage expectations (again, maybe aided by injury)

For process notes regarding this series, my Week 10 fantasy rankings, and my weekly projections, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays.

To see our full rankings and projections, use the promo code FREEDMAN for 20% off the FantasyLife+ package.

Week 10 Tight End Rankings

Rank	TE	Team	Opponent
1	Brock Bowers	LV	DEN
2	Trey McBride	ARI	SEA
3	Tyler Warren	IND	ATL
4	George Kittle	SF	LAR
5	Oronde Gadsden	LAC	PIT
6	Sam LaPorta	DET	WAS
7	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	MIA
8	Dallas Goedert	PHI	GB
9	Kyle Pitts	ATL	IND
10	Colston Loveland	CHI	NYG
11	Harold Fannin Jr.	CLE	NYJ
12	Theo Johnson	NYG	CHI

Dalton Kincaid's Extreme Efficiency Will Persist in Week 10

At various points this season, I've been skeptical about Dalton Kincaid.

The dude doesn't have more than 6 targets in any game this year.

And his time on the field has declined ever since he missed Week 6 with an oblique injury and returned after the Week 7 bye (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).

Weeks 1-5: 60% route rate
Weeks 8-9: 51% route rate

Even so, his target rate (32% vs. 22%) and target share (19% vs. 17%) have gone up over the past two weeks, and for the season he's the No. 2 TE in air yard share (25%) and No. 4 TE in end zone target share (30%).

With this usage, Kincaid has an extremely efficient 27-411-4 receiving on 33 targets. Only Jake Ferguson has more than Kincaid's three top-five TE finishes.

While I know that Kincaid's 12.5 yards per target is bound to regress … I don't see why that regression should start this week: The Dolphins are No. 3 in largest fantasy boost allowed to TEs (+4.2), and FS Ashtyn Davis (quad) is uncertain to play.

In Week 3 against the Dolphins, Kincaid had 5-66-1 receiving on 6 targets.

That feels like the kind of performance we can reasonably expect this week.

Colston Loveland's Breakout Can Continue Into Week 10

I featured Colston Loveland in this very piece last week, and he delivered with 6-118-2 receiving on 7 targets. To borrow from Michael Scott, "I'm not superstitious, but I am a little stitious," so I'm doing the only logical thing possible.

I'm highlighting Loveland again.

Coming out of the Week 5 bye, TE Cole Kmet saw his playing time drastically drop.

Weeks 1-4: 93% snap rate
Week 6: 51% snap rate

Then in Week 7, Kmet suffered a back injury, which forced him out for Week 8—and then he returned in Week 9, only to leave early with a head injury.

With Kmet's sporadic absence and diminished role, the rookie Loveland has correspondingly seen his usage increase.

Weeks 1-4: 41% route rate | 13% target rate | 7% target share
Weeks 6-9: 67% route rate | 20% target rate | 16% target share

And over the past two weeks specifically, he's had a 76% route rate, which he has translated into a 22% air yard share, 33% end zone share and near-elite 88 Utilization Score.

Given the nature of Kmet's most recent injury, I expect him to miss Week 10, which would likely make Loveland a borderline fantasy TE1.

To state the obvious: If available, Loveland is a waiver priority, and I'd even be fine with starting him in Guillotine Leagues, given that four teams are on bye.

As for the matchup this week with the Giants, there's a chance that FS Jevon Holland (knee) will be out—and I have the Bears as a five-star bet in our Fantasy Life Game Model.

I'm comfortable with being invested in the Bears in multiple ways.

The Hot Route

Oronde Gadsden (Chargers) vs. Steelers: Over the past month, the rookie Gadsden has 24-377-2 receiving on 27 targets and a 94 Utilization Score. The Steelers are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed (14.9), SS DeShon Elliott (knee, IR) is out, and backups Chuck Clark (illness) and Jabrill Peppers (quad) are uncertain after missing last week.

Kyle Pitts (Falcons) vs. Colts (in Germany): Ever since the team benched then cut WR Ray-Ray McCloud following the Week 5 bye, Pitts has had strong playing time (94%, 82%, 94%, 94% snap rates). Over that span, Pitts has had a solid 23-177-0 receiving on 30 targets. The Colts are No. 28 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (14.6%, per FTN).

Luke Musgrave (Packers) vs. Eagles: No. 1 TE Tucker Kraft (knee, IR) suffered a season-ending injury last week, and in his absence Musgrave had an 88% route rate and 19% target share. If WRs Matthew Golden (shoulder) and Dontayvion Wicks (ankle) also miss Week 10, Musgrave could see significantly more targets than expected.

Notes on my Week 10 TE Rankings

Byes: This week the Chiefs, Cowboys, Bengals and Titans are on bye.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings and projections. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings and projections schedule.

Tue AM: Publish rankings and projections
Thu AM: Refresh rankings and projections
Thu PM: Make necessary TNF rankings changes
Sat PM: Update rankings and projections
Sun AM: Revise rankings
Sun PM: Finalize rankings based on news prior to 1 pm ET kickoff

Accuracy: I'm a six-time top-20 ranker in accuracy and a long-time profitable player prop better.

Scoring: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated.

Cohesion: My positional breakdowns are published separately, but I think of them as comprising one whole, so check out the rest of my favorite Week 10 fantasy football plays (via my Fantasy Life author page).

Abbreviations: Here are some abbreviations I might have used in the piece.