WR Rankings Downgrades For Week 9 Fantasy Football: Tetairoa McMillan & More

Let's get into the Week 9 WR rankings edition of Freedman's Fades, where I highlight guys I'm downgrading because of …

Unfavorable betting factors and situational spots
Disadvantageous defensive matchups (perhaps amplified by offensive injury)
Decreased usage expectations (again, maybe exacerbated by offensive injury)

For process notes regarding this series, see the end of this piece. Also, check out the rest of my Week 9 favorites and fades.

WR Rankings For Week 9 (Top 36)

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Rank	Player
1	Jaxon Smith-Njigba
2	Puka Nacua
3	CeeDee Lamb
4	Ja'Marr Chase
5	Amon-Ra St. Brown
6	Tee Higgins
7	Malik Nabers
8	Chris Olave
9	Christian Watson
10	Drake London
11	Nico Collins
12	Justin Jefferson
13	Matthew Golden
14	Mike Evans
15	Parker Washington
16	Luther Burden
17	George Pickens
18	Rashee Rice
19	Zay Flowers
20	Jameson Williams
21	Tetairoa McMillan
22	Garrett Wilson
23	Michael Wilson
24	Stefon Diggs
25	Jalen Coker
26	DJ Moore
27	Ladd McConkey
28	Tre Tucker
29	Caleb Douglas
30	Jaylen Waddle
31	Keenan Allen
32	Denzel Boston
33	Malik Washington
34	DeMario Douglas
35	Devaughn Vele
36	KC Concepcion

Week 9 Matchup Downgrades in My WR Rankings: DJ Moore at Vikings & Michael Wilson at Seahawks

There are a few "reverse flow chart" defenses so good that they serve automatic downgrades to whatever WRs they face. If a guy is playing one of them, I aggressively move him down my ranks. If not, I carry on.

Based on the numbers I see in our Fantasy Football DvP (Defense vs. Position) Matrix as well as RBs Don't Matter and FTN, the Vikings and Seahawks are two of the biggest reverse flow chart defenses for WRs.

Vikings: No. 1 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-5.4)
Seahawks: No. 1 in fewest fantasy points allowed to WRs (18.5)

Here be dragons.

DJ Moore (Bills) at Vikings: Moore missed parts of Weeks 2 & 4 and all of Weeks 5-6 with a shoulder injury, but he got healthy over the Week 7 bye and then looked good in Week 8 in terms of production (14.6 fantasy points, 4-82-1 receiving, 7 targets with 1-4-0 rushing) and also usage (89% route rate, 32% air yard share, 50% end-zone target share, 77 Utilization Score, per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report). Unfortunately, though, Moore (knee) suffered a minor injury near the end of the game. He's optimistic he'll play in Week 9, and he might … but his matchup is tough, as is his setup: The Vikings have the No. 4 HFA over the past 16 games (+6.69, per NFElo), and it's fully amplified because they're outside division and conference, on turf (vs. grass), and indoors (vs. outdoors). Plus, this will be their third week out of the past four not on the road. Last year with the Bears, Moore did little in two games against the Vikings (5.9 fantasy points per game, 4-86-0 receiving, 8 targets).

Michael Wilson (Cardinals) at Seahawks: Last week I highlighted Wilson as a fantasy favorite, and he delivered his best game of the season (22.8 fantasy points, 8-111-1 receiving, 15 targets with 1-17-0 rushing) on elite usage (64% air yard share, 75% end-zone target share, 100 Utilization Score). But Wilson (ribs) is playing through injury, his efficiency for the season remains poor (6.0 yards per target), and in his three games against the Seahawks since last year he has done almost nothing (3.7 fantasy points per game, 9-67-0 receiving, 20 targets). Although Gardner Minshew played well last week as a mid-game bench-to-field savior (73.9% completion rate, 10.8 AY/A), the offense might have transitional struggles now with him as the starter, and it doesn't help that LT Jayden Williams (knee) and RG Jon Gaines (ankle) are injured.

Scoring Downgrades in My WR Rankings For Week 9: Tre Tucker at 49ers & Tetairoa McMillan vs. Broncos

Sometimes downgrades are as simple as: "This team isn't going to score as many points as it usually does, so I need to push down the WRs."

This week, the Raiders are No. 21 in implied team total (21.0), and the Panthers are No. 24 (20.25).

Downgrades warranted.

Tre Tucker (Raiders) at 49ers: The past two weeks have fully encapsulated the Tucker experience. In Week 7, he went off (18.8 fantasy points, 5-103-1 receiving, 12 targets). In Week 8, he went dark (0.0 fantasy points, 0-0-0 receiving, 1 target). A true boom/bust merchant, Tucker this year has three games with more than 18.5 fantasy points and five with fewer than 6.5. The Raiders are +9.5 dogs, they're on their second straight road game after playing on the East Coast last week, and the 49ers could get back some injured defensive starters off the bye. And as a dog of at least a TD, Tucker has been notably worse throughout his career (4.8 fantasy points per game, 27.1 yards, 0.07 TDs vs. 9.3, 48.2, 0.41 otherwise).

Tetairoa McMillan (Panthers) vs. Broncos: After a strong start in Weeks 1-4 (15.4 fantasy points per game, 26-385-2 receiving, 39 targets, 86 Utilization Score), McMillan has done little since the Week 5 bye (8.8 fantasy points per game, 16-184-0 receiving, 26 targets, 71 Utilization Score), even though his usage has stayed strong (87% route rate, 32% air yard share, 33% end-zone target share). Sadly, this is probably not a fluke, as it tracks with what QB Bryce Young has done since the bye (53.3% completion rate, 5.6 AY/A). The setup is good: The Broncos are traveling east for an early 1 pm ET kickoff, the Panthers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and they have a boosted HFA because they are outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). But the Broncos are No. 5 in smallest fantasy boost allowed to WRs (-3.1), and LG Damien Lewis (knee) might be out.

Week 9 Situational Downgrades in My WR Rankings: Zay Flowers vs. Jaguars & Jaylen Waddle at Panthers

In general, I want to avoid WRs playing in poor weather conditions, in stadiums with diminished advantages, or in notable subpar situational spots.

Here are two such WRs who stand out.

Zay Flowers (Ravens) vs. Jaguars: Flowers has been at his best this season with QB Lamar Jackson (19.4 fantasy points per game, 18-352-2 receiving, 22 targets in Weeks 1-4), but Jackson (thumb) suffered a potentially season-ending injury on his first snap of Week 8, and in his absence, Flowers floundered (0.0 fantasy points, 0-0-0 receiving, 5 targets). With No. 2 QB Tyler Huntley starting in Weeks 5-7, Flowers held his own (14.7 fantasy points per game, 22-256-1 receiving, 31 targets with 2-14-0 rushing) … but Huntley (toe) also suffered an injury last week and then didn't practice on Monday, so undrafted rookie third-stringer Joe Fagnano (ankle) could start. The matchup is good: The Jaguars are No. 32 in defensive pass DVOA vs. No. 1 WRs (62.5%). But with short time to prepare before Thursday Night Football, the Ravens could get crushed as +8.5 dogs, and it doesn't help that they could also be without LG John Simpson (back), RG Olaivavega Ioane (knee), and RT Roger Rosengarten (ankle).

Jaylen Waddle (Broncos) at Panthers: Waddle has been unfathomably disappointing in his first (and what may be his last) season with the Broncos (8.0 fantasy points per game, 29-315-2 receiving, 51 targets with 2-23-0 rushing). A boom/bust vendor of ill-gotten and -fated goods, Waddle has three games with at least 12.0 fantasy points and four with fewer than 6.0, and for his career he has been worse on the road (9.7 fantasy points per game, 52.6 yards, 0.34 TDs vs. 11.7, 71.0, 0.31 otherwise). He's fortunate in that the Panthers could be without EDGE Jaelan Phillips (hamstring) and CB Will Lee (hamstring) on top of CBs Jaycee Horn (quadriceps, IR), Mike Jackson (groin, IR), and Akayleb Evans (triceps, IR). But his setup is suboptimal: The Broncos are traveling east for an early 1 pm ET kickoff, the Panthers have three extra days off Thursday Night Football, and they have a boosted HFA because they are outside division and conference and on turf (vs. grass). I wouldn't feel good about starting Waddle in Guillotine LeaguesTM this week.

Notes

Week 9 Favorites & Fades: Here's the full series.

Introduction
QB Favorites
QB Fades
RB Favorites
RB Fades
WR Favorites
WR Fades
TE Favorites
TE Fades

Byes: This week, the Steelers and Titans are off.

Market Odds: As of Tuesday morning.

Injuries: Since I write Freedman's Favorites on Monday and Tuesday, I have incomplete injury information. After I submit this article, any updated thoughts I have regarding injuries will manifest in my rankings. For our quick fantasy thoughts every day, subscribe to the Fantasy Life newsletter.

Schedule: This season, I have the following rankings schedule.