Guillotine Leagues™️ Cheat Sheet: Can You Trust Emeka Egbuka Week 1?

Have you gotten over the pit in your stomach when going from your 12-team redraft rosters over to your 18-team Guillotine Leagues™️ roster and wondered where all the players went? Yeah, looking down at the end of your bench and seeing Bryce Lance is none too fun. But that's what the greatest waiver wire in existence will take care of.

First off, it's all about surviving the chop in Week 1, and that's what Kendall Valenzuela, Matthew Freedman and Pete Overzet joined forces to answer some pressing Guillotine Leagues questions. Make sure you're checking out our fantasy football rankings and fantasy football projections for help with last-minute roster decisions.

Week 1 Questions Answered in Guillotine Leagues Cheat Sheet

Who do you like as a strong "RB floor play" in Week 1?

Freedman: Javonte Williams (Cowboys) at Giants

As I note in my Week 1 RB Favorites, last year the Giants were a "flow chart" defense for RBs. They were so bad that if a guy was playing them, I aggressively moved them up my ranks. I don't see why that should be any different this year, at least in Week 1.

Javonte Williams enjoyed a surprise breakout last year in his first season with the Cowboys (1,338 yards, 13 TDs), and his stranglehold on the No. 1 RB job has only strengthened this offseason thanks to a three-year, $24 million contract and the recent cuts of RBs Jaydon Blue and Phil Mafah. In his one game against the Giants last season, Williams went off with 22 fantasy points (130 yards, 1 TD on 18 carries, 7 targets).

Plus, the Cowboys with QB Dak Prescott tend to dominate in division (32-15 ATS, per Action Network).

Kendall: Bucky Irving (Buccaneers) @ Bengals

This might be a surprising callout considering Bucky Irving last season was awful coming back from his injury AND the team went out and got Kenneth Gainwell during free agency, but hear me out.

Sean Tucker was not practicing on Wednesday, so all of a sudden this goes from a potential three-headed monster in the backfield to just Irving and Gainwell. Maybe we actually get an Irving carry inside the 5-yard line? The Bengals defense shouldn't be as bad as last season, especially against running backs since they added Dexter Lawrence, Jonathan Allen and Boye Mafe. I still like Irving in this spot though.

Pete: Chase Brown (Bengals) vs. Buccaneers

I'll take the RB on the other side of the Bucs with Chase Brown. The Bengals have the third-highest implied team total on the slate (27) and Brown is going to get virtually every RB touch in a plus matchup. His combo of receiving and goal-line work give him the kind of floor you dream about for Guillotine Leagues^TM.

Who do you like as a strong "WR floor play" in Week 1?

Freedman: Wan'Dale Robinson (Titans) vs. Jets

Later in this roundtable, someone (cough, Kendall) might suggest that Wan'Dale Robinson doesn't have a solid floor.

I respectfully disagree: I think floor is almost all he has … but at least it's decent.

Robinson isn't exciting. His career efficiency is modest (6.3 yards per target), and he has just 9 TDs across four NFL seasons. But he's effective at turning targets into receptions (68.9% catch rate): Ja'Marr Chase, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Justin Jefferson are the only WRs with more targets over the past two seasons (280).

With the Titans, Robinson is uncertain to repeat his 2025 success (92-1,014-4 receiving), but he has a history with OC Brian Daboll, and that gives him a real chance to be the No. 1 WR for the Titans this year.

Plus, the Jets last year were No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.291, per RBs Don't Matter) and pass DVOA (45.3%, per FTN).

Pete: Josh Downs (Colts) vs. Ravens

There's some low-hanging fruit here, but I'll dig a little deeper with Downs. The Colts will very likely be in a hole this game vs. Baltimore (+3.5) and need to chuck to keep up. With Alec Pierce likely to be eased into action, Downs should be the focal point of the offense (along with Tyler Warren). He has 10+ target upside in this spot.

Which "stud" are you considering benching in Week 1?

Freedman: Trey McBride (Cardinals) at Chargers

As I highlight in my Week 1 TE Fades, Trey McBride is one of my 2026 fantasy fades entering the season, so why shouldn't that be the case in Week 1 with his matchup against the Chargers, who have five-time Pro Bowl SS Derwin James and last year were No. 3 in fewest fantasy points allowed to TEs (9.5)?

I'm not saying that McBride isn't awesome: Over the past two years he's No. 2 in the league in targets (316) and receptions (237), and No. 6 in receiving yards (2,385). Last season he leveled up his game with 11 TDs.

But the matchup is tough, and we don't know how he'll fit in HC Mike LaFleur's offense. Finally, as non-divisional and non-conference opponents playing on turf (instead of grass), the Cardinals are at a significant disadvantage on the road.

Kendall: Josh Allen @ Texans

This realistically might not be feasible if you didn't draft another quarterback, but just know I am a little scared for Josh Allen this week against the Texans.

Last season against Houston, Allen threw for 253 yards (no touchdowns), threw 2 interceptions and was sacked 8 times … all good for 8.1 fantasy points. Again, there might not be much you can do, but it is a little scary starting Allen this week.

Pete: Emeka Egbuka @ Bengals

It's nearly impossible to sit any "stud" in a Guillotine format because it's very unlikely you have a better option in an 18-team league. That said, Egbuka strikes me as a very volatile start. We still don't know the full extent of this "toe" injury, even though he did practice in full this week. He strikes me as more of a boom/bust TD bet this week, as opposed to someone who provides a comfy floor.

Who's the one guy who might not have a solid floor but who makes you say, "Screw it, I'm starting him anyway"?

Freedman: Tre Tucker (Raiders) vs. Dolphins

I mentioned Tre Tucker in my Week 1 WR Favorites earlier this week … and then news broke that TE Brock Bowers (knee) would be out.

Tucker might not have much of a floor … because he's on the Raiders and he might not be all that good at football … but last year he was the No. 3 WR in the league in snap rate (95%), tied with Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase), and he led the Raiders with 92 targets and 696 yards receiving.

In this spot, he's home and indoors, and he's facing the Dolphins, who last year were No. 31 in defensive dropback success rate (52.3%).

Kendall: Wan'Dale Robinson vs. Jets

We've known him as "Scam'Dale" for a reason, he can be a PPR cheat code. Wan'Dale Robinson was brought over to Tennessee and reunited with Brian Daboll as his offensive coordinator. I think there's a strong chance he gives us solid weeks until Carnell Tate settles into the WR1 role. According to ESPN, last season the Jets allowed a league-high 20 touchdowns, 115.6 passer rating and 0.28 EPA per dropback on underneath throws—hint: this is where Robinson thrives.

Pete: Matthew Golden @ Vikings

It is certainly fair to want to see it first with Golden, but I'm just YOLO starting him this week. It's a solid matchup and the team has been telling us all offseason he's going to be a big part of their plans. He's a volatile play because his targets will likely be deep, but I'd be disgusted with myself if I left a spike week on the bench.

Which player do you think will have the highest "chop rate" in Week 1?

Freedman: Josh Allen (Bills) at Texans

I was tempted to say Patrick Mahomes, but Kendall beat me into the document and claimed him, so I'm pivoting.

The first guy I mention in my Week 1 QB Fades, Allen was one of my 2026 fantasy favorites for the season, and he has been especially strong indoors (10-5-1 ATS) … but this week he's playing the Texans, who last year were No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA (-0.126).

When he played them last season in Week 12, Allen had just 10.1 fantasy points (no TDs, two INTs, just 20 yards rushing) in a 23-19 road loss. Allen's a great player, so his overall numbers still look good in our Fantasy Life player projections, but his bust potential this week is unquestionably greater than it usually is.

Kendall: Patrick Mahomes vs. Broncos

Pete: Brock Bowers vs. Dolphins

It will be very difficult to win without your second-round pick. Oof.