In the words of Jim Morrison, “The future’s uncertain, and the end of the NFC South is always near”…
In today’s Betting Life newsletter presented by LG Channels:
- Futures Bets: Ravens, Rams & Bucs!
- Player Props! CMC ATD — always…
- Power Rank: Dak INT?
- A Group Chat Parlay: We’re up +16.5 units!
- SNF: Cowboys. Eagles. MVP.
- It’s 12/10: Take it away, Matthew Freedman…
Our friends at Unabated have an NFL Season Simulator that allows users to upload data, play out 10,000 seasons, and compare the results to the betting market.
It’s Sat. 12/9 at 4 pm ET, and I just uploaded my power ratings, home-field advantage values, and QB ATS values and ran an Unabated simulation.
Based on the results, here are three future bets that catch my eye.
🏆 Ravens to Win Super Bowl
- Best Line: +700 (DraftKings)
- Unabated Projection: +592
The Ravens are the No. 2 team in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings (+9.44). They have the No. 2 defense in EPA (-0.147, per RBs Don’t Matter), and QB Lamar Jackson is having his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign.
As I noted in this week’s “Bigger Picture” episode of the Betting Life Podcast as well as the Thursday Betting Life Newsletter, I have the Ravens projected for 12.0 wins, which puts them in the race for the No. 1 seed in the AFC.
🐏 Rams to Win NFC
- Best Line: +5000 (Caesars)
- Unabated Projection: +4364
With HC Sean McVay and a full crew of skill-position players, the Rams have an explosive offense that could go off in the playoffs. And with DT Aaron Donald and a host of overperforming rookies, they have a defense that is good enough (-0.018 in EPA, No. 16).
Given their divisional familiarity with the 49ers and McVay’s work history with 49ers HC Kyle Shanahan, the Rams might have a puncher’s chance of knocking their rivals out of the playoffs.
💩 Buccaneers to Win NFC South
- Best Line: +400 (UniBet)
- Unabated Projection: +300
The Buccaneers (-0.59) are rated ahead of the Saints (-1.21) and Falcons (-3.12) in Massey-Peabody, they’re live as underdogs of less than a field goal against the Falcons this weekend, and all three teams could be tied for the division lead with a disgusting 6-7 next week.
At +400, the Bucs have a 20% implied probability of winning the NFC South (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator), but I think the true probability is closer to 25%.
(Side note: I have the Bucs in a couple Week 14 teasers in our 100% FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.)
GET FREEDMAN’S BEST BETS FOR WEEK 14!
For everything you need for Week 14 — including our inactives page, which will update shortly after 11:30 am ET with all of the relevant status updates — you can get to your destination with a mere click of a button.
See our suite of tools to get you ready for today’s slate below:
Every week, Matthew Freedman writes an article with five of his favorite player props. Here are a couple of them, which you can find (along with lots of other bets) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.
⛏️ Christian McCaffrey Anytime TD (-350, FanDuel)
- My Projection: -583.5
- Cutoff: -500
In McCaffrey’s 26 games with the 49ers, he has scored 30 TDs.
He has a league-high 51 redzone carries as well as 12 redzone targets.
At -350, McCaffrey has a 77.8% implied probability of scoring a TD this week, and I have his true odds of scoring at 85.4%.
The TD market tends to be overjuiced — but CMC ATD is one of the few TD bets that consistently offers value.
⬇️ Patrick Mahomes Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-105, DraftKings)
- My Projection: 23.7
- Cutoff: 26.5
Last week, Mahomes’ rushing yardage prop was 20.5. The highest it has been this year is 26.5. The highest it was last year was 27.5.
Mahomes is underappreciated as a runner, but 29.5 is out of line with his established market.
It’s not as if the Bills are notably vulnerable to QB rushing production. In only three games have they allowed a QB to go over 29.5.
So why is this number so high?
My theory: In their most recent game, the Bills allowed Jalen Hurts 65 yards (but 27 came in overtime). Also, in Mahomes’ five starts against the Bills (two of which have been in the postseason, when he tends to run more), he has 192 yards rushing.
In other words, recency bias and specificity bias.
By the way, I don’t know if “specificity bias” is officially a thing, but it should be.
SEE THE REST OF FREEDMAN’S PROPS!
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- JJettas is Back!!! 🙏
- What can we expect from Jake Browning and the Bengals?
- Which RBs are set up for a Smash Week?
Ed Feng is the proprietor of The Power Rank. This season, he’s 35-25 (+18.5 units) on INT props. Here’s one of his INT bets for Week 14.
⬆️ Dak Prescott o0.5 INT (-135, DraftKings)
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has thrown only two INTs in his past seven games.
However, INTs aren’t a good predictor of future INTs. To make better predictions, we should look at bad balls (the sum of INTs and passes defended, or plays in which the defense gets a hand on the ball).
On average, the ratio of INTs to bad balls is 19.5%, and a QB has little impact over this ratio. Once he puts a ball in a dangerous position, he has no control over whether it becomes an INT.
Over his past seven games, Prescott has had 31 bad balls, which implies an unsustainable INT-to-bad ball ratio of 6.5%. My model gives a 61% chance for a pick, and there is value in Prescott over 0.5 INTs (-135, DraftKings).
Check out The Power Rank for MORE INT bets!
📊 Taking a look at the smart kid’s homework. Where sharps are betting for Week 14.
⏳ When’s the best time to bet NFL? Meet in the middle.
👀 Projections vs prop lines. A 63.6-yard difference leads the slate.
🥧 “You don’t score, until you score.” Touchdown bets for Week 14.
💰 Need more plays? That was rhetorical, we know you need more plays. And we have them.
🤑 If you lose $20M playing DFS, maybe don’t put the next $2M into play? Then again, it’s only (someone else’s) money.
🚨 Last-minute bets, anyone? We’ve got you covered before kickoff.
🏴☠️ The best Pick’em plays for Week 14. Bucs country, let’s bake.
Welcome to Week 14 of Bets from the Group Chat, where I (Geoff Ulrich) elicit information from my Fantasy Life colleagues about their bets.
The three-way group chat parlay moved to 4-5 after we got tripped up in a couple of spots last week (thanks, Steelers). Even so, we’re still up +16.5 units since starting (assuming one unit bet per parlay).
The Week 14 group chat parlay is below.
🤠 Jordan Likes: C.J. Stroud Over 214.5 Pass Yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Projection: 234.8 yards
- Play to: 217.5 (-110)
The Jets have a tough pass defense, but C.J. Stroud is No. 3 in yards per attempt and has thrown for 270+ yards in five straight games.
The line on Stroud has moved down all week but the worst of the rain and wind may not come until late in the game.
🐻 Mark Likes: Bears +3.5 (-120, BetMGM)
- Play to +3.0 (-105)
I’m with Mark on the Bears. They have an emerging defense that has nabbed eight turnovers in their past three games.
As Mark mentions himself in our FREE bet tracker, catching Jared Goff outside in potentially poor weather could be a gift. Goff is 9-14-1 ATS for his career while playing outdoors in Dec/Jan.
⚡️ Geoff Likes: Austin Ekeler Under 13.5 Carries (-150, BetMGM)
- Projection: 12.6
- Play to: 12.5 (-115)
The Chargers run game has been awful with Ekeler averaging 3.5 yards per carry or less in seven of nine games.
HC Brandon Staley has hinted there may be more carries for backup Josh Kelley. Ekeler’s also gone under this total in two of his last three games.
🤝 Putting It All Together: +508 (BetMGM)
📈 Week 14 Ladder: Courtland Sutton (BetMGM)
- 75+ rec yards (+165): Play to +125
- 80+ rec yards & anytime TD: (+400, SGP)
- 100+ rec yards (+425): Play to +400
The Chargers secondary has allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing WRs and ceded four games of 100+ yards to opposing WRs.
We can play Sutton through 75+ and 100+ yards, but if you want a third bet to include you can create a same-game parlay with 80+ yards and an anytime TD at +400 odds. He’s been an extremely efficient TD scorer (nine on the year) and faces a secondary that should allow ample opportunity to add to that total.
More Bets? Of Course You NEED THEM!
There’s nothing better than a divisional rivalry game with playoff implications. That’s exactly what we get on SNF, with the Eagles traveling to Dallas. Matt LaMarca breaks down his top picks for this NFC East showdown.
🤠 Best Bet: Cowboys -3.5 (-102, DraftKings)
I’m continuing to fade the overvalued Eagles. Even though they have the best record in the league, they’re seventh in Massey-Peabody and own an expected record of just 6.9-5.1.
The Cowboys are the better team, and this is a spot that has historically been favorable for them. There are three ATS situations where Dak Prescott has been extremely profitable during the regular season: At home, as a favorite, and in divisional games:
- Prescott at home: 32-23-1 (12.9% ROI)
- Prescott as favorite: 47-32-2 (14.7% ROI)
- Prescott in division: 27-11-0 (38.4% ROI)
Add up all three, and Prescott is a sparkling 14-4 ATS as a divisional home favorite. He’s 2-0 in that split so far this season, and he’s 12-2 dating back to the start of the 2018 season.
I was fortunate enough to get the Cowboys at -2.5 on the lookahead line but still think there’s value at -3.5. There’s also a chance this number dips back to -3.0 before kickoff, so I’d consider waiting if you haven’t already grabbed Dallas.
⬆️ Top Prop: Dak Prescott Over 38.5 pass attempts (-105; DraftKings)
Our projections aren’t bullish on Prescott’s pass volume, but I think they’re overly conservative. The Cowboys have had a pass-heavy archetype in three of their past five games, and they don’t have a single game below “balanced” all season. In his first matchup with the Eagles, Prescott attempted a season-high 44 passes.
The best way to attack the Eagles is through the air. They’re 26th in dropback EPA and have ceded huge games to QBs this season. They’ve allowed at least 310 passing yards in four of their past five games.
With Prescott having an MVP-caliber season, expect the Cowboys to keep the ball in his hands.
